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Re: Newsflash: Deflation may be next threat!
Ash - any process of validation which requires "years" is of little use to us here. That clunky old-fashioned notion of "most elementary plausibility" is certainly entirely serviceable.
What is "elementary plausibility"?
If I make the assertion that I regularly observe commuters in San Diego commuting to and fro on flying Turkish carpets, there is a "plausibility problem" which is so stark that your concerns about "plausibility being in the eye of the beholder" can likely be put aside with confidence that we are being constructive in so doing, and the community can in short order demonstrate that the flying carpet assertion is wildly improbable and should be discarded.
It's rough and ready process, but it's largely functional as it's what keeps us from walking out the door every morning and not getting run over by a bus, because we know roads are places which require us to look left and right before crossing. Certain rudimentary levels of common sense have to be accepted. For example most people here would consider it a waste of time to have to eve bother "proving" that the moon was not made of green cheese. It truly does get that ridiculous - we are talking about a seriously dangerous situation - why does anyone have patience getting bogged down with astonishing claims that a man who blows off his own arms and legs is actually an able field general?
The question is exceedingly simple. Take a "wily central banker" or a "wily Wall Street banker" and posit they are following steps to achieve greater power all masterfully planned to extend the reach of their fiat b0nar into all corners of the earth. Then examine a few years of their methodology pursuing that, and use the elementary plausibility analogy of the field general blowing off his arms and legs to win the battle of Waterloo.
Wily banker destroys the solvency and good will of his own preferred host, the American Taxpayer. Then he destroys the balance sheets of most of his preferred new hosts, the foreign pools of capital, buy fobbing them off with imploding paper. Wily banker blows up 3/4 of his own brothers and sisters in pursuit of global domination - in effect blowing off his own "arms and legs", and even wrapping a tight noose around his own neck in the process. Wily banker awakens such a wave of ire in the population as to risk starting a groundswell movement to repeal his Federal Reserve charter.
Wily banker in short works up such a crap storm of bad bets and egregious missteps, that he arrives at a "hail mary" moment when even his own continued solvency is predicated on the alienated US taxpayer host approving his bid for a $700 billion dollar bailout. Wily banker gets so broke in this strategy of world domination that the US Treasury has to step in to personally recapitalize his flailing efforts to even stay afloat as a central bank. Wily banker is so deep in the shit at this point that implicit in this bailout is the need for maybe another 5 trillion just to keep living another year.
What the hell kind of "global power grab" is this supposed to be? Use the simple friking smell test. Everything about this trajectory speaks of bungling and slap-dash last minute fixes for the problems created by the previous last minute fix. It is ridiculous to ask this community to wait a year before we can "ascertain whether the thesis has validity". Besides, I happen to agree 100% with $#* that the USD will indeed stay strong for longer than is intuitive here. But that has nothing remotely to do with validating his thesis, that it's "strength" is derived from a carefully worked out rational strategy.
Appreciate your instinct for diplomacy here ASH, but it is misplaced to the urgent need for clarity about a banker who is currently steering us right over a cliff. No need therefore to interject diplomatic middle terms here ASH. The proponent of the thesis really ought to sieze this opportunity to step up, and put down simple, rational reasons why this cunning banker has thought it wise and necessary as part of his master plan, to blow off his own arms and legs and crater Wall Street (his nursery) as the preliminary to staging a masterful grab for all this new power and influence in the world.
I am all set to fall out of my chair in astonishment at the overwhelming arguments that this all represents a supremely rational progression to the thesis.
Ash - any process of validation which requires "years" is of little use to us here. That clunky old-fashioned notion of "most elementary plausibility" is certainly entirely serviceable.
What is "elementary plausibility"?
If I make the assertion that I regularly observe commuters in San Diego commuting to and fro on flying Turkish carpets, there is a "plausibility problem" which is so stark that your concerns about "plausibility being in the eye of the beholder" can likely be put aside with confidence that we are being constructive in so doing, and the community can in short order demonstrate that the flying carpet assertion is wildly improbable and should be discarded.
It's rough and ready process, but it's largely functional as it's what keeps us from walking out the door every morning and not getting run over by a bus, because we know roads are places which require us to look left and right before crossing. Certain rudimentary levels of common sense have to be accepted. For example most people here would consider it a waste of time to have to eve bother "proving" that the moon was not made of green cheese. It truly does get that ridiculous - we are talking about a seriously dangerous situation - why does anyone have patience getting bogged down with astonishing claims that a man who blows off his own arms and legs is actually an able field general?
The question is exceedingly simple. Take a "wily central banker" or a "wily Wall Street banker" and posit they are following steps to achieve greater power all masterfully planned to extend the reach of their fiat b0nar into all corners of the earth. Then examine a few years of their methodology pursuing that, and use the elementary plausibility analogy of the field general blowing off his arms and legs to win the battle of Waterloo.
Wily banker destroys the solvency and good will of his own preferred host, the American Taxpayer. Then he destroys the balance sheets of most of his preferred new hosts, the foreign pools of capital, buy fobbing them off with imploding paper. Wily banker blows up 3/4 of his own brothers and sisters in pursuit of global domination - in effect blowing off his own "arms and legs", and even wrapping a tight noose around his own neck in the process. Wily banker awakens such a wave of ire in the population as to risk starting a groundswell movement to repeal his Federal Reserve charter.
Wily banker in short works up such a crap storm of bad bets and egregious missteps, that he arrives at a "hail mary" moment when even his own continued solvency is predicated on the alienated US taxpayer host approving his bid for a $700 billion dollar bailout. Wily banker gets so broke in this strategy of world domination that the US Treasury has to step in to personally recapitalize his flailing efforts to even stay afloat as a central bank. Wily banker is so deep in the shit at this point that implicit in this bailout is the need for maybe another 5 trillion just to keep living another year.
What the hell kind of "global power grab" is this supposed to be? Use the simple friking smell test. Everything about this trajectory speaks of bungling and slap-dash last minute fixes for the problems created by the previous last minute fix. It is ridiculous to ask this community to wait a year before we can "ascertain whether the thesis has validity". Besides, I happen to agree 100% with $#* that the USD will indeed stay strong for longer than is intuitive here. But that has nothing remotely to do with validating his thesis, that it's "strength" is derived from a carefully worked out rational strategy.
Appreciate your instinct for diplomacy here ASH, but it is misplaced to the urgent need for clarity about a banker who is currently steering us right over a cliff. No need therefore to interject diplomatic middle terms here ASH. The proponent of the thesis really ought to sieze this opportunity to step up, and put down simple, rational reasons why this cunning banker has thought it wise and necessary as part of his master plan, to blow off his own arms and legs and crater Wall Street (his nursery) as the preliminary to staging a masterful grab for all this new power and influence in the world.
I am all set to fall out of my chair in astonishment at the overwhelming arguments that this all represents a supremely rational progression to the thesis.
Originally posted by ASH
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