What will life in the West look like in 2-3 years time?

[rj1]

Re: What will life in the West look like in 2-3 years time?

I don't know.

I'll just continue on doing the best I can.

[Tulpen]

Re: What will life in the West look like in 2-3 years time?

Touchring - China can spend it's entire 1.5 - 2 trillion hard currency reserves on building out infrastructure that it desperately needs, and which unlike America's mere "infrastructure refurbishment" in China's case is infrastructure that simply does not exist yet.

Who do you expect will take payment in US$ for that?

On the other hand China can buy all commodities on the cheap as they are almost all priced in dollars. I think that would be their best strategy: use their dollars to buy as many commodities they can now that they are cheap and available!

[Guest]

Re: What will life in the West look like in 2-3 years time?

Tulpen - If you were Westinghouse / Toshiba, Mitsubishi, Areva, Siemens, GE et. al, and I came to you with 1.5 trillion USD and said "look these bills are burning a hole in my pocket and I wanna build 50 nuc plants in my country real quick so give me your best package deal'? - how would you take it? Would you lean back in your CEO chair and raise your eyebrow skeptically, and say, "look we really don't like the USD, can you pay for this in any other currency"?

Heck no. Big money TALKS when it's dangled before international contractors to spend on internal infrastructure projects. You'd have all of these companies climbing all over each other to fill that bid. No problem whatsoever for China to spend that pile of dollars as opposed to exchanging them on the international FOREX markets. And coming into the cusp of peak oil as all these governments perfectly well know, a massive investment spent on cheap energy is a burning agenda for all of them anyway. This is just ONE of the ways China could evaporate that "uncomfortable USD overhang". The thesis they are critically hostage to the US on their dollar stash just does not seem to hold water.

Who do you expect will take payment in US$ for that? [ building nuc plants in China ]

[Mega]

Re: What will life in the West look like in 2-3 years time?

Bladerunner?
You mean we are going to get Flying cars?
Mike

[Southernguy]

Re: What will life in the West look like in 2-3 years time?

@Lukester:
China buying-constructing all those nuclear plants implies anyway dumping their 1,5 trillion dollars reserves somewhere.
That is the same as selling them on the international markets.
They can sell them to buy gold, yens, oilfields, real estate any place, cement, iron-ore, etc. Itīs all dumping dollars and therefore dollar value, and treasuries, and agency paper all going down the drain.
Thatīs what I think.

[VIT]

Re: What will life in the West look like in 2-3 years time?

@Lukester:
China buying-constructing all those nuclear plants implies anyway dumping their 1,5 trillion dollars reserves somewhere.
That is the same as selling them on the international markets.
They can sell them to buy gold, yens, oilfields, real estate any place, cement, iron-ore, etc. Itīs all dumping dollars and therefore dollar value, and treasuries, and agency paper all going down the drain.
Thatīs what I think.

It seems to be a difference. Selling USD for yens/gold/real estate devalue the USD quicker and does not create anything. Constructing plants means that all of these people from mentioned companies would work for China in exchange of paper dollars.

[Mega]

Re: What will life in the West look like in 2-3 years time?

Am hopeful that Fred or EJ might drop a line on this post?
Mike

[Mega]

Re: What will life in the West look like in 2-3 years time?

May be even "Metalman"?

[sadsack]

Re: What will life in the West look like in 2-3 years time?

Once people realize that the gub'ment has sold them to foreign creditors . . .

[phirang]

Re: What will life in the West look like in 2-3 years time?

Once people realize that the gub'ment has sold them to foreign creditors . . .

Time to loosen those hamstrings...

[RebbePete]

Re: What will life in the West look like in 2-3 years time?

Two to three years is hard to predict. Five to ten would be easier, but I'll throw in my two cents on each.

Two to three: Rising unemployment, nationalization of more and more industries until the government is completely socialistic. At the end of the period, we'll be well into "poom" so unrest builds in the cities, some rioting which feeds on itself making the cities very unpleasant places to be. Illegals and "guest workers," initally part of the rising violence, now flee the country because of lack of work and competition with citizens for scarce work. The obesity crisis is finally "cured."

Five to ten: Rising energy costs make the city-suburb model more and more impractical. Clock turns back about 100 years with small towns rising back up, initially populated by boomer retirees, then local industries resurrect (e.g., furniture, butchers (remember those?), etc.) attracting refugees from the suburbs. All sorts of pension plans go bust meaning boomer retirees go back to work part-time, which won't be such a hardship in the semi-rural environment. Think 1910 but with internet, better health care and telecommuting. Central socialistic planning becomes more and more irrelevant.

- Pete

PS No flying cars.