Is this guy right?

[Mega]

Shocking if true:-
http://www.tickerforum.org/cgi-ticke...www?post=64606
Mike

[LargoWinch]

Re: Is this guy right?

Shocking if true:-
http://www.tickerforum.org/cgi-ticke...www?post=64606
Mike

There is a difference between investment and lunacy you know.

I am not aware of any World War during Depression I and as far as I know, Japan did not invade anybody during the 90s either.

[Starving Steve]

Re: Is this guy right?

I suspect this guy is correct, but I do not know for sure. To me, it seems quite likely that China has warned the US not to even think of printing, lest they dump their U.S. treasuries and bankrupt the USA. And I would add to this that it also seems likely that the U.S. was given a warning from Saudi Arabia at the recent oil summit, again not to do a print-job in the dollar, lest the Saudis turn the oil tap off completely. Again, I confess that I am spinning here because I do not know exactly what was said at the recent oil summit.

However, it is not too difficult for an observer to accurately predict the last moves in a chess game. And this is where we are now. The last moves are now being played-out.

[GRG55]

Re: Is this guy right?

I suspect this guy is correct, but I do not know for sure. To me, it seems quite likely that China has warned the US not to even think of printing, lest they dump their U.S. treasuries and bankrupt the USA. And I would add to this that it also seems likely that the U.S. was given a warning from Saudi Arabia at the recent oil summit, again not to do a print-job in the dollar, lest the Saudis turn the oil tap off completely. Again, I confess that I am spinning here because I do not know exactly what was said at the recent oil summit.

However, it is not too difficult for an observer to accurately predict the last moves in a chess game. And this is where we are now. The last moves are now being played-out.

OK. I've asked this question a number of times before without a satisfactory answer being proposed. Just who are the Chinese (or any other significant holder of US Treasuries) going to sell (dump) them to?

The US Treasury cannot afford to buy back that debt. So who would want that obligation? And if there is some other entity on the face of the earth that does, just what sort of price are they going to bid? And even if they bid "rock bottom" and take them off the hands of the Chinese [who would have to take a write-down] how does that "bankrupt" the USA?

[phirang]

Re: Is this guy right?

OK. I've asked this question a number of times before without a satisfactory answer being proposed. Just who are the Chinese (or any other significant holder of US Treasuries) going to sell (dump) them to?

The US Treasury cannot afford to buy back that debt. So who would want that obligation? And if there is some other entity on the face of the earth that does, just what sort of price are they going to bid? And even if they bid "rock bottom" and take them off the hands of the Chinese [who would have to take a write-down] how does that "bankrupt" the USA?

You can't "dump" treasuries: you can only stop buying them.

Too bad that by the time China can get away with that, the US will probably have a beastial economic revival and BHPRIOTECKFREEPORT will be raping the chinese on input costs...

[metalman]

Re: Is this guy right?

You can't "dump" treasuries: you can only stop buying them.

Too bad that by the time China can get away with that, the US will probably have a beastial economic revival and BHPRIO will be raping the chinese on input costs...

don't need to sell... stop buying them = 200 basis points per year on the 10yr. rising rates = game over in a debt deflation.

[GRG55]

Re: Is this guy right?

don't need to sell... stop buying them = 200 basis points per year on the 10yr. rising rates = game over in a debt deflation.

You can't "dump" treasuries: you can only stop buying them....

Agree with both of you. Stop buying more is not the same as "dump" what you're already saddled with.

[phirang]

Re: Is this guy right?

don't need to sell... stop buying them = 200 basis points per year on the 10yr. rising rates = game over in a debt deflation.

That's fine and dandy, but you need an economy that's more sophisticated than $1/day jobs and tainted milk products...

[The Outback Oracle]

Re: Is this guy right?

I don't understand your point there Phirang so i'm not commenting on that.
However re $/day jobs and tainted milk products.....it is worth the plane fare, just to fly to Shanghai and have a look for a few days.

[phirang]

Re: Is this guy right?

I don't understand your point there Phirang so i'm not commenting on that.
However re $/day jobs and tainted milk products.....it is worth the plane fare, just to fly to Shanghai and have a look for a few days.

China is still a vendor economy, and the people have to save too much of their money in order to survive to really allow a sustained consumer-led economy. That's my point, and so China needs subsidies, tariffs, currency manipulation(i.e. import inflation, export deflation), and $1/day jobs.

China still needs 6-axis manufacturing technology, better semi fabs, etc.

[mcgurme]

Re: Is this guy right?

I don't understand your point there Phirang so i'm not commenting on that.
However re $/day jobs and tainted milk products.....it is worth the plane fare, just to fly to Shanghai and have a look for a few days.

I did that this spring.

Shanghai has a thriving economy.

However, I also visited five other cities on that trip, and also took a drive through the country from Ningbo City to Shanghai. Shanghai is about as representative of the rest of China as is NYC representative of the rest of the USA. And the countryside had nary a tree to be seen - they'd all been cut down.

I deal frequently with Chinese for an import business. While I like many of the people I deal with personally, the understanding of how to do business effectively is quite limited.

For example, one company would not honor a written warranty on an item (worth $400) because they had already had to honor a few other warranty issues and they said it was "too expensive". The result? I yanked an $18k order from them that was ready to go (and they knew it). Their response? Oh well, we'll find another customer. There was no understanding there of developing a mutually beneficial, long term relationship.

China has major problems - particularly the destruction of their natural environment. While I don't underestimate them, I also don't think they are headed for a cake walk as a country. At least here in the US we have clean water and forests left in many places.

[The Outback Oracle]

Re: Is this guy right?

Ah ...good you go there!

I had an interesting experience many years ago...i suppose maybe 20. I was in Qingdao at the airport and had been in Northern China about 3 weeks. I am originally a farmer so I tend to notice things around me. In the 3 weeks I did not see a bird!
I had a few beers in Qingdao airort with a W. German bloke who had been up there about a month (in the beer industry). I asked him if he had seen any birds and, while he admitted to be not so aware of such things, could not recall having seen any.
I have quite a few experiences of 'where rivers used to run' etc
The situation seems to have improved a bit with a fair tree planting programne having been in place for a while...still like you say...it's a worry. I am finding that middle class Chinese are reasonably environmentally aware but it will take a while yet for real environmentalism to take a decent hold.
I made a note in "Decoupling gone haywire" in "Reports from the Front" about current happenings in SE ASia which bear out what you are saying re saving etc.
I dunno...it's all getting tangled and depressing!!!!

[Serge_Tomiko]

Re: Is this guy right?

I am not aware of any World War during Depression I and as far as I know

There is this guy, Adolf Hitler. You might want to read up on him.

[D-Mack]

Re: Is this guy right?

There is this guy, Adolf Hitler. You might want to read up on him.

They issued MEFO bills for rearmament before the war

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mefo_bills

[marvenger]

Re: Is this guy right?

what it means is that the the US gov will not be able to sell treasuries because the chinese will under sell to the buyer, this is how they will bankrupt the US. Of course other counties could ignore the Chinese ask price to keep the system going, but seeing as chinese are a major buyer it will still significantly hurt the US.