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Investment Propaganda

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  • #31
    Re: Investment Propaganda

    Originally posted by metalman View Post
    ok if i butt in on your love fest?

    buffett 2008 = rockefeller 1929

    if the whole market falls another 50%, that’s bad for buffett no matter how good an investor he is.

    at this point the “big men” come out to give the market confidence. it never works... the system is structurally flawed (over-indebted) but what the f*ck, it’s worth a try...

    as the itulip front page sez...

    “It's almost worth the Great Depression to learn how little our big men know.”
    - Will Rogers
    As I posted earlier, maybe he and his shareholders were just lucky to be in the right place at the right time in history...:p

    Originally posted by GRG55 View Post

    ...Then again, maybe it's simpler than that. Buffett and Berkshire's shareholders were lucky to be in the right place at the right time and rode the 25 year FIRE economy for all it's worth [the tech bubble phase excepted]. ;)

    Comment


    • #32
      Re: Investment Propaganda

      Originally posted by GRG55 View Post
      You can get a "good deal" for a whole lot less than $5 B or even $10 Mill. There are now distressed sellers all across the spectrum, for just about everything [Vancouver real estate apparently excepted. For now ;) ].
      I know, but I want a good deal on Goldman Sachs... now please don't tell me that I have to pay first a bunch of Congressmen and politicians in the White House. I don't want to spend my money on prostitutes.

      In the countries where prostitutes are allowed to make the law usually the situation is FUBAR.

      Comment


      • #33
        Re: Investment Propaganda

        Originally posted by $#* View Post
        I know, but I want a good deal on Goldman Sachs... now please don't tell me that I have to pay first a bunch of Congressmen and politicians in the White House. I don't want to spend my money on prostitutes.

        In the countries where prostitutes are allowed to make the law usually the situation is FUBAR.
        ...I saw her today at the reception
        A glass of wine in her hand
        I knew she was gonna meet her connection
        At her feet was her footloose man

        You can't always get what you want
        You can't always get what you want
        You can't always get what you want
        But if you try sometimes you might find
        You get what you need...

        --Jagger/Richards; from "Let it Bleed", 1969

        Comment


        • #34
          Re: Investment Propaganda

          Originally posted by Tulpen View Post
          Nobrainer.
          I removed that from my investing vocabulary long time ago.

          But again, it is always nice to close your eyes before jumping in the lake.

          When my eyes are finally open, I always hope to see mermaids, but I too often see sharks...

          Comment


          • #35
            Re: Investment Propaganda

            Originally posted by Rantly McTirade View Post
            Buffett drove a tough bargain & got a great deal on a specific; this is what we all should strive to do. Unfortunately, most of us lack comparable
            resources &/or skills.

            OTOH, Buffett has clearly become a pimp for the developing economic,
            political & social order(he's a 'transnational progressive', in the vernacular). This has emerged in the past dozen or so years & is a fascinating contrast to his Congressman father. His shilling, in a disingenous manner for the Paulson/Bernanke plan is in line with this & confirm his disinterest in what's best for the nation and taxpayers generally.

            Buffett's opinion on matters other than specific stock/investment selection should be given no more weight than those of others who
            have shown exceptional ability at one rather narrow skill, i.e., Brett
            Farve,Oprah, Renee Fleming, etc., etc. In fact, they should be evaluated
            in light of the political, cultural & (broad)economic views his actions(not
            rhetoric) associate him with.
            Well said.
            Outside of a dog, a book is man's best friend. Inside of a dog, it's too dark to read. -Groucho

            Comment


            • #36
              Re: Investment Propaganda

              I'd caution you all to keep in mind Buffett is a 78 year old man worth approx $62 billion. A 5 billion dollar bet at this point in his life isn't going to make or break him, and if it does help give confidence to the market, makes him feel like a good citizen and puts one last W in the win column for him. Its not like he has 10-20 years to sit around waiting for an economic recovery. He's trying to speed up the game a bit before his time is up.

              Comment


              • #37
                Re: Investment Propaganda

                Originally posted by GRG55 View Post
                ...I saw her today at the reception
                A glass of wine in her hand
                I knew she was gonna meet her connection
                At her feet was her footloose man

                You can't always get what you want
                You can't always get what you want
                You can't always get what you want
                But if you try sometimes you might find
                You get what you need...

                --Jagger/Richards; from "Let it Bleed", 1969
                Good point GRG55 ...

                Comment


                • #38
                  Re: Investment Propaganda

                  Originally posted by flintlock View Post
                  I'd caution you all to keep in mind Buffett is a 78 year old man worth approx $62 billion. A 5 billion dollar bet at this point in his life isn't going to make or break him, and if it does help give confidence to the market, makes him feel like a good citizen and puts one last W in the win column for him. Its not like he has 10-20 years to sit around waiting for an economic recovery. He's trying to speed up the game a bit before his time is up.
                  I fleetingly thought about this earlier and let it go. If Buffett put up $5 Billion was it his money or was it BRKA's money? If you are correct that he is worth 62$billion, then $5B is only an 8.06% bet. If the $5B came out of BRKA, I would guess it is even a smaller percentage of its portfolio.

                  Can anyone state with certainty whose money exactly it was, and what percentage of an investment allocation $5B represents?
                  Jim 69 y/o

                  "...Texans...the lowest form of white man there is." Robert Duvall, as Al Sieber, in "Geronimo." (see "Location" for examples.)

                  Dedicated to the idea that all people deserve a chance for a healthy productive life. B&M Gates Fdn.

                  Good judgement comes from experience; experience comes from bad judgement. Unknown.

                  Comment


                  • #39
                    Re: Investment Propaganda

                    Originally posted by Jim Nickerson View Post
                    Can anyone state with certainty whose money exactly it was, and what percentage of an investment allocation $5B represents?
                    Jim, quite a few of the news reports state that it is BRKA making the investment.

                    Comment


                    • #40
                      Re: Investment Propaganda

                      Originally posted by babbittd View Post
                      Jim, quite a few of the news reports state that it is BRKA making the investment.
                      babbitt, speaking for myself and perhaps you also, $5B is a fair amount of money, right? But for BRKA, I can only guess that it is not that big of an investment. Who's the guy that is always labeling Buffett as Sir Warren, I bet he knows exactly how big a bet the $5B is.
                      Jim 69 y/o

                      "...Texans...the lowest form of white man there is." Robert Duvall, as Al Sieber, in "Geronimo." (see "Location" for examples.)

                      Dedicated to the idea that all people deserve a chance for a healthy productive life. B&M Gates Fdn.

                      Good judgement comes from experience; experience comes from bad judgement. Unknown.

                      Comment


                      • #41
                        Re: Investment Propaganda

                        Originally posted by Jim Nickerson View Post
                        babbitt, speaking for myself and perhaps you also, $5B is a fair amount of money, right? But for BRKA, I can only guess that it is not that big of an investment. Who's the guy that is always labeling Buffett as Sir Warren, I bet he knows exactly how big a bet the $5B is.
                        Yes, for me also.

                        re: the guy - Are you talking about another Itulip user?

                        Here are some numbers from BRKA 2005 Annual report:


                        Our gain in net worth during 2005 was $5.6 billion, which increased the per-share book value of both our Class A and Class B stock by 6.4%. Over the last 41 years (that is, since present management took over) book value has grown from $19 to $59,377, a rate of 21.5% compounded annually.

                        Total assets .................................................. ........................... $198,325 (in millions)

                        Comment


                        • #42
                          Re: Investment Propaganda

                          Originally posted by D-Mack
                          Troubled Asset Relief Program, or TARP.
                          You cannot say they don't have a sense of humor, LOL! How is that for a cover?

                          Comment


                          • #43
                            Re: Investment Propaganda

                            Whether it is BRKs money or Sir Warren's own - there is little real difference.

                            Sir Warren has historically kept 90%+ of his net worth in the company's stock - even with his recent large promised donation to Bill Gates' foundation.

                            As for the size of the investment - it will be the 2nd largest one ever made by BRK were it considered a stock buy.

                            From the 2007 annual report:


                            Percentage of
                            Shares Company Company Owned Cost* Market
                            151,610,700 American Express Company ................... 13.1 $ 1,287 $ 7,887
                            35,563,200 Anheuser-Busch Companies, Inc............. 4.8 1,718 1,861
                            60,828,818 Burlington Northern Santa Fe.................. 17.5 4,731 5,063
                            200,000,000 The Coca-Cola Company ........................ 8.6 1,299 12,274
                            17,508,700 Conoco Phillips ....................................... 1.1 1,039 1,546
                            64,271,948 Johnson & Johnson.................................. 2.2 3,943 4,287
                            124,393,800 Kraft Foods Inc........................................ 8.1 4,152 4,059
                            48,000,000 Moody’s Corporation .............................. 19.1 499 1,714
                            3,486,006 POSCO............................................. ....... 4.5 572 2,136
                            101,472,000 The Procter & Gamble Company ............ 3.3 1,030 7,450
                            17,170,953 Sanofi-Aventis......................................... 1.3 1,466 1,575
                            227,307,000 Tesco plc............................................... ... 2.9 1,326 2,156
                            75,176,026 U.S. Bancorp ........................................... 4.4 2,417 2,386
                            17,072,192 USG Corp.............................................. .. 17.2 536 611
                            19,944,300 Wal-Mart Stores, Inc. .............................. 0.5 942 948
                            1,727,765 The Washington Post Company .............. 18.2 11 1,367
                            303,407,068 Wells Fargo & Company......................... 9.2 6,677 9,160
                            1,724,200 White Mountains Insurance Group Ltd. .. 16.3 369 886
                            Others .................................................. .... 5,238 7,633
                            Total Common Stocks ............................. $39,252 $74,999
                            From a cost basis, only Wells Fargo was larger ($6.6B).

                            From an existing worth basis, the GS stake would only be basically tied for 5th (with USG at $5.063B)

                            However, I again note that the deal is not a stock buy, it is a preferred stake meaning an amalgamation of the better parts of both bonds and stocks: convertibility to stock should things get better, and interest cash as a bond, plus seniority over most other creditors.

                            I actually take this to be a negative sign for GS; if truly things were a slam dunk to turn around then Sir Warren would have bought the stock with an ever greater discount.

                            My read on this is that Sir Warren expects GS to survive, but does not necessarily expect the existing stockholders to be happy about it.

                            And how is this different than the iTulip expectations? With Brother Hank at Treasury?

                            Comment


                            • #44
                              Re: Investment Propaganda

                              Originally posted by Sapiens View Post
                              Originally Posted by D-Mack
                              Troubled Asset Relief Program, or TARP.
                              You cannot say they don't have a sense of humor, LOL! How is that for a cover?
                              Of course they have a good sense of humor. They are laughing their way to the bank... er ... hedge funds ... the failing banks are for us ....

                              Comment


                              • #45
                                Re: Investment Propaganda

                                Now here's a good example...MSM [in this case the WSJ] in the pocket as usual:
                                The Paulson Plan Will Make Money For Taxpayers

                                In 1992, hedge-fund manager George Soros made $1 billion betting against the British pound. In 2007, John Paulson's Credit Opportunities fund correctly bet against subprime mortgages, clearing $15 billion for the year and $3.7 billion for him. Warren Buffett is now hoping to make big money on Goldman Sachs.

                                But these are small-time deals. My analysis suggests that Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson (a former investment banker, no less, not a trader) may pull off the mother of all trades, which could net a trillion dollars and maybe as much as $2.2 trillion -- yes, with a "t" -- for the United States Treasury...

                                ...You can slice the numbers a lot of different ways. My calculations, which assume 50% impairment on subprime loans, suggest it is possible, all in, for this portfolio to generate between $1 trillion and $2.2 trillion -- the greatest trade ever. Every hedge-fund manager will be jealous. Mr. Buffett is buying a small piece of the trade via his Goldman Sachs investment.

                                Over 10 years this could change the budget scenario in D.C., which can also strengthen the dollar. The next president gets a heck of a windfall. In the spirit of Secretary of State William Seward's purchase of Alaska for $7 million in 1867, this week may be remembered as Paulson's Folly.
                                I thought the comparisons with Soros and Buffett's "small-time deals" was an especially creative touch. :rolleyes:

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