Is it profitable to ride the bubble?

[bart]

Re: Is it profitable to ride the bubble?

Fair enough, but to be honest, I see no sincere economic reason to manipulate the stock market either.

If it is for political gain, it certainly isn't working.

I admit that I have little real understanding or proof of the motivation or purposes behind it - just conjectures, and even in tinfoil hat mode.

There's no question that the correlation exists though, especially since April, and a case can be made for causation.

[jk]

Re: Is it profitable to ride the bubble?

I'm still not clear on what you think the motivation would be for the Fed and/or Treasury to offer loans when the S&P goes up (as opposed to the causation being the other way)?

i'm not saying the treasury and/or fed is motivated to offer loans when the equity market rises. i'm just raising the theoretical possibility that there is a source of funds which would simultaneously result in the treasury having extra funds, and equity traders having extra funds. that is, it is possible that A is not the cause of B, and B is not the cause of A, but A and B are correlated because C is the cause of both. as i said, i can't think of anything that would produce this effect.

[bart]

Re: Is it profitable to ride the bubble?

i'm not saying the treasury and/or fed is motivated to offer loans when the equity market rises. i'm just raising the theoretical possibility that there is a source of funds which would simultaneously result in the treasury having extra funds, and equity traders having extra funds. that is, it is possible that A is not the cause of B, and B is not the cause of A, but A and B are correlated because C is the cause of both. as i said, i can't think of anything that would produce this effect.

Thanks, I think I have it now - obviously I wasn't tracking with you.
I don't know of any combination of events that would produce that effect either... and I'm also a long way from knowing as much as I'd like to.

[blazespinnaker]

Re: Is it profitable to ride the bubble?

Well, check www.intrade.com

Believe it or not, I actually think that gas prices jumping up recently have had a negative (or at least flat) effect on the popularity of the Republicans.

I bet that a lot of people are suspicious (I think wrongly) of the republicans because of the recent drop in gas prices and suspect it to be manipulation.

Truthfully - I don't believe the republicans were behind it, or if they were, that is a horribly incompetent of them. People are not *that* stupid. And why go to all that effort with little return?

I am pretty sure the house is going to fall to the democrats in november. And I think the senate is a risk as well.

[jk]

Re: Is it profitable to ride the bubble?

Well, check www.intrade.com

Believe it or not, I actually think that gas prices jumping up recently have had a negative (or at least flat) effect on the popularity of the Republicans.

I bet that a lot of people are suspicious (I think wrongly) of the republicans because of the recent drop in gas prices and suspect it to be manipulation.

Truthfully - I don't believe the republicans were behind it, or if they were, that is a horribly incompetent of them. People are not *that* stupid. And why go to all that effort with little return?

I am pretty sure the house is going to fall to the democrats in november. And I think the senate is a risk as well.

[blazespinnaker]

Re: Is it profitable to ride the bubble?

Yup, that's been posted before and I was aware of it when I made the statement above.

My argument is simple... the high correlation between approval and gas prices has lead to overt suspicion that gas prices have been manipulated and therefore lead to a lack of trust in the current administration.

I think any advanced politico would understand that and would advise bush or whoever not to bother trying any last minute manipulation of gas/stock prices.