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  • Russia question?

    My question is... what will this mean?



    Russian shares suffered their steepest one-day fall in more than a decade on Tuesday, losing up to 20 per cent, as a sharp slide in oil prices and difficult money market conditions triggered a rush to sell.

    The heads of the Russian central bank, the finance ministry and the financial market regulator met on Tuesday night for an emergency discussion on ways to halt the crisis.

    Earlier, trading had been suspended on both the Micex and RTS stock exchanges as investors ignored assurances by Russian officials and a cycle of distrust set in amid liquidity fears.

    Margin calls forced domestic traders to liquidate positions and brokers pulled credit lines. At least one Moscow bank failed to meet payments.

    The rouble-denominated Micex Index closed 17.75 per cent down, the sharpest one-day drop since the August 1998 financial crisis, while the dollar-denominated RTS index closed down 11.47 per cent, its lowest lvel since January 2006.

    Interbank money market rates climbed to 11 per cent, their highest since a mini-banking crisis in summer 2004.

    Chris Weafer, chief strategist at Uralsib investment bank: “We’re in completely uncharted territory where the prevailing emotion is of fear and numbnes. No one knows where this could stop”.

    Alexei Kudrin, finance minister, insisted that the financial system was not in a systemic crisis but the central bank injected a record $14.16bn in one-day funds into the money market.

    The finance ministry also placed an additional R150bn ($5.8bn) in one-month deposits into the banking system. Konstantin Korishchenko, central bank deputy, told Russian news agencies that the bank and the finance ministry could provide a total of $117.6bn in liquidity to the banking sector.

    But market players said banks were ceasing to lend to second and third-tier companies and brokers were pulling credit lines. KIT Finance, big Moscow investment house confirmed rumours that it had been unable to make payment on a series of short-term loans.

    It said: “In connection with the fact that a series of our clients did not meet their obligations to our bank, we have not met our obligations to our counterparties.

    “We recognise our responsibility to our counter-parties and to the market and we are working intensively to resolve the situation.”

    Andrei Sharonov, managing director of Troika Dialog, a Moscow investment bank, and a former deputy economic minister, said: “This is a vicious circle,”.

    “It is a situation of total mistrust. The liquidity crisis is being caused by a crisis of confidence in which people are frightened to borrow and frightened to lend.”

    Shares in Russia’s biggest state-controlled banks led the slide with Sberbank, the state-controlled savings bank, closing 21.72 per cent down and VTB losing 29.26 per cent. The bank was suffered on investor fears about its securities portfolio, which makes up about 10 per cent of its assets.

  • #2
    Re: Russia question?

    Looks like their PPT is broken

    Comment


    • #3
      Re: Russia question?

      Originally posted by olivegreen View Post
      My question is... what will this mean?
      That means that Russia (like China) is going to experience a massive depression soon. It also means that the Fed's plan to dollarize the global economy works well.

      I tried to explain before my theory about the Fed's Hammer Drill strategy.

      Comment


      • #4
        Re: Russia question?

        Now that theory of yours, as much of it as I can understand, makes horrible sense but is a rather sombre merry-go-round without end...


        Yet why do I think this won't happen?

        "The collapse of foreign national economies that were manipulating their currencies ... become unstable and there is a capital flight back to US markets:"

        I wish I had the words to explain what is only intuition at this stage... oh well... I'll be quiet again.

        OG

        Comment


        • #5
          Re: Russia question?

          Originally posted by D-Mack View Post
          Looks like their PPT is broken
          You'd think if "anyone" was going to have a highly functioning PPT, it would be Russia, no?

          Comment


          • #6
            Re: Russia question?

            Originally posted by olivegreen View Post
            is a rather sombre merry-go-round without end...
            That's pretty much it It will continue with minor variations until every person on this planet is in debt up to his/hers eyeballs ;)


            Yet why do I think this won't happen?

            Originally posted by olivegreen View Post
            "The collapse of foreign national economies that were manipulating their currencies ... become unstable and there is a capital flight back to US markets:"
            This will be a repeat at a much larger scale of the Asian Tigers Crisis. If your intuition evolves into a solid argument please don't hesitate to bring it up. Believe me, I wish I were wrong!

            Comment


            • #7
              Re: Russia question?

              Originally posted by olivegreen View Post
              You'd think if "anyone" was going to have a highly functioning PPT, it would be Russia, no?
              They do. Only its apparently Putin's Polonium Team. And it seems to be functioning just fine, isn't it?

              Comment


              • #8
                Re: Russia question?

                Originally posted by GRG55 View Post
                They do. Only its apparently Putin's Polonium Team. And it seems to be functioning just fine, isn't it?
                That was a good one

                Comment


                • #9
                  Re: Russia question?

                  I've done (and do) a lot of investing in Russia.

                  One of the things I've always said is never ever invest in Russian stocks and bonds.

                  Pretty much all of the Russian companies use IPO to convert non-controlling stakes into more folding money.

                  As for bonds - with inflation in Russia so high, it is stupid to buy into them.

                  As for the 'crisis': EJ has predicted a currency crisis in Russia. I've pushed back a bit - asking for illumination since the previous crisis bears little resemblence to this present one. For one thing, Russia has literally hundreds of billions more in its piggy bank than before.

                  Of course, if oil goes back to $60 or less - then I'll switch camps.

                  From my view, what we're seeing now is a liquidity crunch, but one somewhat different than the US and Europe is experiencing.

                  Russian banks and financial institutions, as well as the larger companies, have been using significant amounts of borrowed money. While they haven't invested much into MBS's, CDO's, and other housing related crap, they are still vulnerable to sudden massive changes in available credit.

                  Thus the crises (plural!) in the US and Europe are trickling down.

                  However, the Russian economy is only starting to be credit driven.

                  Only in the past year have I seen significant amounts of real estate purchases using mortgages; the flat screen TV/washing machine purchases on credit have been going on for around 3 years.

                  There is some suffering going on - inflation has been high and ratcheted up this year. But it is still unclear to me how bad this will ultimately get as debts are still very serviceable.

                  Only if the overall economy plunges would I be concerned - and that is where the oil price/commodity prices come in.

                  To give some examples: AIG was selling 'annuities' in Russia at least 3 years ago. With then 1 year CD rates being 6%, they were offering 8% to 10% monthly payments for 15 years. Despite this, all of my partners keep all their money in real estate (fully paid for) and cash. No stocks, no bonds, no bank accounts.

                  So there's still a LOT of physical cash - in dollar and euro forms - still there.

                  Comment


                  • #10
                    Re: Russia question?

                    They closed their stock market until Friday


                    SEPTEMBER 18, 2008, 10:11 A.M. ET

                    Russia Moves to Restore Confidence;
                    Stock Exchanges Suspended Until Friday
                    A WALL STREET JOURNAL ONLINE NEWS ROUNDUP


                    Russia on Thursday moved to stem a dizzying plummet in share prices, pledging to inject an additional 500 billion rubles ($19.68 billion) into the market and suspending trading on its main stock exchanges for a second consecutive day.

                    On Thursday morning, trading at Russia's two main bourses, RTS and MICEX were suspended after stocks went into a freefall this week, battered by the global financial storm spreading from the U.S. Russia's exchanges will resume trading Friday, the Finance Minister Alexei Kudrin said Thursday during a Kremlin meeting with President Dmitry Medvedev and the country's top monetary officials.

                    During the meeting, Mr. Medvedev said Russian monetary officials will allot 500 billion rubles to aid the country's stock markets when trading resumes Friday. Half of the sum will come from the federal budget.

                    "In this situation there is no more important task for the government than to keep the markets stable," Mr. Medvedev said. "We have enough reserves, we have a strong economy, and this is a guarantee that there won't be any shocks."

                    ...

                    http://online.wsj.com/article/SB1221...googlenews_wsj

                    Comment


                    • #11
                      Re: Russia question?

                      Originally posted by D-Mack View Post
                      They closed their stock market until Friday
                      Geee ... who could have imagined something like this?

                      Global markets are "irrational" and the Fed has "completely lost control"!

                      The Fed's Hammer Drill works with clockwork precision. They are competent experts doing a perfect (con) job ... well ...Ben is a top notch expert on the subject of The Great Depression ....

                      The next step probably is to induce through media a mass hysteria of buying gold followed by a catastrophic crash of to gold price... they are becoming more and more predictable, but I believe they will be able to pull out the greatest wealth transfer process (global theft) in human history.

                      Comment


                      • #12
                        Re: Russia question?

                        Originally posted by $#* View Post
                        Geee ... who could have imagined something like this?

                        Global markets are "irrational" and the Fed has "completely lost control"!

                        The Fed's Hammer Drill works with clockwork precision. They are competent experts doing a perfect (con) job ... well ...Ben is a top notch expert on the subject of The Great Depression ....

                        The next step probably is to induce through media a mass hysteria of buying gold followed by a catastrophic crash of to gold price... they are becoming more and more predictable, but I believe they will be able to pull out the greatest wealth transfer process (global theft) in human history.
                        I don't think the recent gains in gold will sustain itself: the catalyst was credit paralysis, which will be solved.

                        The sustainable (relatively) gains in gold will come when the reflation becomes unbearable for credit offtakers and they demand higher yields...

                        Comment


                        • #13
                          Re: Russia question?

                          Originally posted by $#* View Post
                          Geee ... who could have imagined something like this?

                          Global markets are "irrational" and the Fed has "completely lost control"!

                          The Fed's Hammer Drill works with clockwork precision. They are competent experts doing a perfect (con) job ... well ...Ben is a top notch expert on the subject of The Great Depression ....

                          The next step probably is to induce through media a mass hysteria of buying gold followed by a catastrophic crash of to gold price... they are becoming more and more predictable, but I believe they will be able to pull out the greatest wealth transfer process (global theft) in human history.
                          From whom and to whom will the wealth be transferred?
                          Outside of a dog, a book is man's best friend. Inside of a dog, it's too dark to read. -Groucho

                          Comment


                          • #14
                            Re: Russia question?

                            Originally posted by Master Shake View Post
                            From whom and to whom will the wealth be transferred?
                            You know -- from everyone else to the mysterious "they" who are behind everything: the puppet masters who are responsible for all major moves of the market over the span of countless decades, who planned all this from the beginning, and whose insidious influence explains nearly every world event.

                            Sorry $#*. I'm being unfairly flippant. You have evinced far greater knowledge of the markets and financial matters than I. My viewpoint that this is all one great big clusterf*ck brought about by the interaction of human nature with a structural bias for short term thinking -- as opposed to a carefully orchestrated plan -- is probably just evidence that I don't get it.

                            Comment


                            • #15
                              Re: Russia question?

                              Originally posted by ASH View Post
                              You know -- from everyone else to the mysterious "they" who are behind everything: the puppet masters who are responsible for all major moves of the market over the span of countless decades, who planned all this from the beginning, and whose insidious influence explains nearly every world event.

                              Sorry $#*. I'm being unfairly flippant. You have evinced far greater knowledge of the markets and financial matters than I. My viewpoint that this is all one great big clusterf*ck brought about by the interaction of human nature with a structural bias for short term thinking -- as opposed to a carefully orchestrated plan -- is probably just evidence that I don't get it.
                              I agree with you ASH; Darwin wouldn't have it any other way!

                              Comment

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