Thesis change time? Gold approaching $760

[phirang]

Re: Thesis change time? Gold approaching $760

Hmmm... Then I guess these guys are wrong:

http://www.marketwatch.com/news/story/us-net-capital-outflows-slowed/story.aspx?guid={FB720AC3-1253-4BE5-A8B9-30CF0832B194}&dist=msr_1




(Please remember we were discussing the mortgage rate raise after the bailout.)

EJ, can you identify a haven for the capital that has fled the US capital markets? If you say gold, then gold should be like 100000/oz.

[metalman]

Re: Thesis change time? Gold approaching $760

EJ, can you identify a haven for the capital that has fled the US capital markets? If you say gold, then gold should be like 100000/oz.

good question... where's the money going? not into gold.

[metalman]

Re: Thesis change time? Gold approaching $760

I'm not sure the explanation you provided is correct. Here is an alternate view:

http://www.nakedcapitalism.com/2008/...age-rates.html

Is there any data available to substantiate the claim that there is a reversal of capital flow (capital flight from US)?

they're wrong. but then they're new at this.

[Guest]

Re: Thesis change time? Gold approaching $760

They are suggesting capital flight should grow to become the predominant longer term trend. A potential confirmation from rising mortgage rates is not "leaned on" as primary evidence.

The broader point is that it is reasonable to suppose foreign capital is despite the rising USD getting more rather than less inhibited, from diving into the USD's domestic markets, as the growing internal US dysfunction is now made glaringly obvious to the world.

EJ, can you identify a haven for the capital that has fled the US capital markets? If you say gold, then gold should be like 100000/oz.

[metalman]

Re: Thesis change time? Gold approaching $760

Look at the blue line BOPI. Capital inflows are negative.

&^*%#@ has a chart viewing comprehension problem. not helping his shot at a job editing financial news for german newspapers.

[marvenger]

Re: Thesis change time? Gold approaching $760

I thought the increase in home loan rates would have been due to continued concerns over falling home home values and a need to recoup losses in the normal fashion, investors feeling safer in bank debt as per nakedcapitalism and at least a slowing in capital inflows both also make sense, it all adds up.

[phirang]

Re: Thesis change time? Gold approaching $760

&^*%#@ has a chart viewing comprehension problem. not helping his shot at a job editing financial news for german newspapers.

Why do I hear an echo when I mention LIBOR here?

[metalman]

Re: Thesis change time? Gold approaching $760

Why do I hear an echo when I mention LIBOR here?

lieBOR, lieBOR, lieBOR, lieBOR, lieBOR!



explains arms but not the spike in 30yr fixed.

[phirang]

Re: Thesis change time? Gold approaching $760

Time for OPERATION TWIST!

muhaha!

[Guest]

Re: Thesis change time? Gold approaching $760

good question... where's the money going? not into gold.

I assume it's all in treasuries? It's not in stocks or commodities.

My question is "how long are folks going to be willing to sit earning almost nothing?" Even if things were deflationary, would the psyche developed over the last 25 years or so allow them, or more importantly, their investment managers, to sit on the sidelines more than a few months?

[Down Under]

Re: Thesis change time? Gold approaching $760

Why not gold, if there's a disconnect between paper gold (Comex) and physical...

[Supercilious]

Re: Thesis change time? Gold approaching $760

they're wrong. but then they're new at this.

Financial Times are new and wrong at this ? :eek:

[c1ue]

Re: Thesis change time? Gold approaching $760

EJ, can you identify a haven for the capital that has fled the US capital markets? If you say gold, then gold should be like 100000/oz.

How about deleveraging? Capital was leveraged up to buy into various investments. As leveraged investments lose AND credit dries up, actual capital gets nullified in the process of deleveraging, or perhaps BY the process of deleveraging.

[xela]

Re: Thesis change time? Gold approaching $760

I'm curious if you could rule out reinflation failing or rather being abandoned. Do you see political movement or pressure from abroad dictating another way out of this mess as a high probability or not at all?

[due_indigence]

Re: Thesis change time? Gold approaching $760

Deleveraging is the ultimate unsafe haven. It's swallowing everything like a black hole. Hyper-inflation is happening in a parallel universe. It's been mentioned here before but I blame the CERN Collider.