If this goes on, America will look like a developing country in a generation.

[touchring]

East Asia is spending tons of money on infrastructure development, while they are relegated to low priority in America.

Just a thought.

Washington projects could be affected as federal fund for roads runs dry


The federal highway trust fund will run out of money this month, requiring delays in payments to states for transportation construction...
By The Associated Press and the Los Angeles Times
WASHINGTON — The federal highway trust fund will run out of money this month, requiring delays in payments to states for transportation construction projects, Transportation Secretary Mary Peters said Friday.
The trust fund — used to help pay for highway and bridge projects — will run about $200 million short of its commitments for the fiscal year, which ends Sept. 30, Peters said.
The shortfall will mean short delays — and in some cases a temporary reduction — in payments to states for infrastructure projects the federal government has agreed to help finance.
Although the fund started with a $8.1 billion balance in October 2007, transportation officials said revenue for the past year was $8.3 billion below what the government had committed to spend.

http://seattletimes.nwsource.com/htm...2_roads06.html

[c1ue]

Re: If this goes on, America will look like a developing country in a generation.

Touchring,

The interesting part on all this is not that the US is failing to invest in infrastructure to the degree that Asia is.

The interesting part is:

If Asia is at x% of potential, and the US is at y% of potential, with potential being defined as the maximum possible productivity of a nation given optimal infrastructure, obviously X << Y (much much less) right now.

But if Asia builds enough infrastructure such that X < Y (less, not much much less), then Asia's nearly 3B people can easily overwhelm the US' national productivity.

Or put another way: Asia's infrastructure only needs to enable 1/10th of the infrastructure potential in America for the absolute results to be identical.

Or yet another way: US efforts to build infrastructure must maintain a 10x infrastructure advantage vs. Asia in order for the US to keep its economic lead.

Asia doesn't therefore need to replicate US infrastructure per se, but even getting close is enough to change everything.

[touchring]

Re: If this goes on, America will look like a developing country in a generation.

I don't know the absolute terms, but the infrastructure in Singapore is starting to suck, they should have finished building up the subway lines a few years ago when it was cheaper to do so. Instead, the government is infatuated over having 10% budget surplus every year.

Now, transport is lagging behind Hong kong and even some of the Chinese cities.

Touchring,

The interesting part on all this is not that the US is failing to invest in infrastructure to the degree that Asia is.

The interesting part is:

If Asia is at x% of potential, and the US is at y% of potential, with potential being defined as the maximum possible productivity of a nation given optimal infrastructure, obviously X << Y (much much less) right now.

But if Asia builds enough infrastructure such that X < Y (less, not much much less), then Asia's nearly 3B people can easily overwhelm the US' national productivity.

Or put another way: Asia's infrastructure only needs to enable 1/10th of the infrastructure potential in America for the absolute results to be identical.

Or yet another way: US efforts to build infrastructure must maintain a 10x infrastructure advantage vs. Asia in order for the US to keep its economic lead.

Asia doesn't therefore need to replicate US infrastructure per se, but even getting close is enough to change everything.

[c1ue]

Re: If this goes on, America will look like a developing country in a generation.

Touchring,

Singapore's infrastructure may be worse than before, but my point was that if all of Malaysia (or even just the big cities) attained 1/4 of Singapore's infrastructure level, then competitively it would be REALLY bad news for Singapore.

Now enlarge this example to the US vs. Asia.

[touchring]

Re: If this goes on, America will look like a developing country in a generation.

Touchring,

Singapore's infrastructure may be worse than before, but my point was that if all of Malaysia (or even just the big cities) attained 1/4 of Singapore's infrastructure level, then competitively it would be REALLY bad news for Singapore.

Now enlarge this example to the US vs. Asia.

Yes, i see your point, but it might be a little more complex.

After years of high level corruption by the last administration, the infrastructure in Malaysia is now worst than the Chinese cities. Kuala Lumpur can't even compare with second tier Chinese cities, let alone the top. It's crazy if you think that only 15 years ago, Kuala Lumpur was more advanced than Beijing or Shanghai.

[kingcopper]

Re: If this goes on, America will look like a developing country in a generation.

America has got to let go of the infatuation with asphalt. We were once in love with our trains and it must happen again and soon. We need politicians with the testicals to put their balls on the chopping block. Instead, we're relegated to waiting like a bunch of hobos for some 3 year asphalt to patch 500lb pot holes!

[phirang]

Re: If this goes on, America will look like a developing country in a generation.

Yes, i see your point, but it might be a little more complex.

After years of high level corruption by the last administration, the infrastructure in Malaysia is now worst than the Chinese cities. Kuala Lumpur can't even compare with second tier Chinese cities, let alone the top. It's crazy if you think that only 15 years ago, Kuala Lumpur was more advanced than Beijing or Shanghai.

China is building lots of high-speed rail.

I'm curious to see where copper inventories will be a year from now, after China has put in another 14k km of rail (let alone the other 3k km they're bulding in Africa).

Good ol' China Railway.

[rj1]

Re: If this goes on, America will look like a developing country in a generation.

America has got to let go of the infatuation with asphalt. We were once in love with our trains and it must happen again and soon. We need politicians with the testicals to put their balls on the chopping block. Instead, we're relegated to waiting like a bunch of hobos for some 3 year asphalt to patch 500lb pot holes!

You're thinking major cities only. Point-to-point from D.C. to New York, sure there's a train rail there. What about if I want to go from Omaha to Boise? Or Wilmington, NC to Charleston, WV?

[c1ue]

Re: If this goes on, America will look like a developing country in a generation.

Yes, i see your point, but it might be a little more complex.

After years of high level corruption by the last administration, the infrastructure in Malaysia is now worst than the Chinese cities. Kuala Lumpur can't even compare with second tier Chinese cities, let alone the top. It's crazy if you think that only 15 years ago, Kuala Lumpur was more advanced than Beijing or Shanghai.

Touchring,

Totally true.

But also true: that industrialized cities can go downhill just as much as they go uphill in infrastructure terms.

Think Pyongyang - formerly industrial capital and center of Korea, now just an empty shell showcase.

[GRG55]

Re: If this goes on, America will look like a developing country in a generation.

China is building lots of high-speed rail.

I'm curious to see where copper inventories will be a year from now, after China has put in another 14k km of rail (let alone the other 3k km they're bulding in Africa).

Good ol' China Railway.

China has the population to justify transport of people by rail (although the stuff going into Africa, as we know, is to transport resources from mines to ports (all of which they are also building)...

You're thinking major cities only. Point-to-point from D.C. to New York, sure there's a train rail there. What about if I want to go from Omaha to Boise? Or Wilmington, NC to Charleston, WV?

...but I doubt the traffic between "Omaha and Boise" could ever justify the tremendous expense of passenger rail. Only an enormous government make-work subsidy (even greater than that for the interstate system in the 1950's/1960s) coupled with widespread public support based on a warped interpretation of NND principles (energy security, new technology development, and so forth) is going to take passenger and finished goods rail transport in the far-flung USA much beyond interlinking the largest regional population centres.

And, if by chance it ever did happen, it would end up sucking in so much capital that it would probably set back the much needed restructuring of the US economy by a decade or more.

[pwcmba]

Re: If this goes on, America will look like a developing country in a generation.

Barack and Biden are the train and transportation candidates of this election. McCain is more anti-train than Bush, if that is possible.

[rj1]

...but I doubt the traffic between "Omaha and Boise" could ever justify the tremendous expense of passenger rail. Only an enormous government make-work subsidy (even greater than that for the interstate system in the 1950's/1960s) coupled with widespread public support based on a warped interpretation of NND principles (energy security, new technology development, and so forth) is going to take passenger and finished goods rail transport in the far-flung USA much beyond interlinking the largest regional population centres.

And, if by chance it ever did happen, it would end up sucking in so much capital that it would probably set back the much needed restructuring of the US economy by a decade or more.

Exactly, so kingcooper's point of getting away from asphalt is completely fantasy and a non-starter. We're stuck with cars because the country is far too large to operate on just airplanes and railroads.

[pwcmba]

Re: If this goes on, America will look like a developing country in a generation.

We need a balanced transportation network utilizing all modes not simply picking one over the other like the past.

[Wild Style]

Re: If this goes on, America will look like a developing country in a generation.

Exactly, so kingcooper's point of getting away from asphalt is completely fantasy and a non-starter. We're stuck with cars because the country is far too large to operate on just airplanes and railroads.

Personally I think its less a issue of the country being to large and more a issue of poor city/urban planning. If cities were built like say the older N.E. cities or Chicago with good mass transit. Then tie those urban and reigional areas together with bullet trains it could be done. It would take a major shift in city planning moving forward though

[kingcopper]

Re: If this goes on, America will look like a developing country in a generation.

Personally I think its less a issue of the country being to large and more a issue of poor city/urban planning. If cities were built like say the older N.E. cities or Chicago with good mass transit. Then tie those urban and reigional areas together with bullet trains it could be done. It would take a major shift in city planning moving forward though

Exactly. And, we begin to shift city planning by punishing those cities that have made a living with THE SUBURB. Suburban growth in cities such as ATL is the scourge of our economic heart.
We must perform a bypass soon. I'm not in favor of ditching asphalt between smaller towns, I'm in favor of massive rail systems between and along our coasts.