Russians Sending A Message to Europe...

[GRG55]

Re: Russians Sending A Message to Europe...

"the citizens of Poland, Hungary and the Czech Republic understand what it's like to be "inside" Russia's border. "

And thus they follow the foolish policy of acquiring enemies in the neighborhood and friends across the ocean. Yeah, this strategy worked out for the Poles in 1939. Now they stupidly repeat it.
Actually, Germany, Italy and France understands that without Russian energy THERE IS NO EUROPEAN ECONOMY. Also exports of the EU grow very dynamically to Russia.

The citizens of Iraq, Grenada, Vietnam and countless others could tell tales about being inside the US border. Just how is that any better?

The Great Powers (Russia and USA) are not charity organizations. They do not have friends, they only have interests...

Correct [you are paraphrasing Lord Palmerston]. And this statement is the strongest contradiction to the rest of your post. If you think appeasing/befriending Russia is in Europe's interests you are sadly, sadly mistaken. And if you think such a policy on Europes part will secure reliable energy from Russia, you are naive. Finally, if you think that Grenada is comparable to what happened in eastern Europe in the 20th century, you must have slept through your high school history classes.

There is only one way to deal with a bully...whether that bully be Russia, the USA, or any other. Isn't that exactly what Vietnam and Iraq (your other two examples) did? Old Europe is digging its own grave.

"Since 1990 the US is encircling Russia with bases and Allies. Instead of taking Russia as a partner (as was promised) the USA wants to defeat Russia again. The reason: they could not install their puppet Khodorkovsky. Now Russia is back in the game with a rather strong hand. It is not in the interest of Europe to antagonize Russia.

YES, they can cut off oil and gas. Or halve shipments. The rise in oil price would compensate for the lost volume. They could also build pipelines towards their ally: China. It may take a few years. But Europeans would freeze to death by the tens of thousands.

Old Europe will not take a tough stance against Russia. It is not in their interest at all.

Wrong. Old Europe will not take a tough stance against anyone, anywhere, for any reason (not even the Serbs in Bosnia). Because Old Europe is both politically and militarily weak. And that is unlikely to change any time soon.

To believe, as you do, that their economic strength should depend on "reliable" Russian energy supply, will be the final step to losing complete control over their own destiny.

[Supercilious]

Re: Russians Sending A Message to Europe...

Here is the best backgrounder I've found over internet, on how the Russian-Georgian war started.

http://www.michaeltotten.com/archive...th-about-1.php

There are though a few omissions: in May 2008, Russia broke the previous peace-keeping agreements by building an illegal forward operation base in South Ossetia and bringing paratroopers (as "additional peacekeepers" ). Also at the end of May 2008 Russian forces moved into Abkhazia and started building/repairing a railroad linking Abkhazia to Russia. That Railroad was essential for moving Russian troops into Abkhazia and western Georgia.

[Guest]

Re: Russians Sending A Message to Europe...

Old Europe will not take a tough stance against anyone, anywhere, for any reason (not even the Serbs in Bosnia). Because Old Europe is both politically and militarily weak. And that is unlikely to change any time soon.

European leaders decide not to decide on measures against Russia

September 1, 2008, 6:28 PM (GMT+02:00)

Ahead of their emergency summit meeting in Brussels on the Georgia crisis, Sept. 1, twenty-seven European Union leaders backed away from practical measures against Moscow, stating only that EU-Russian relations will be under review “in various areas.”

After recognizing the independence of Georgia’s breakaway regions of South Ossetia and Abkhazia – which Russian president Dmitiry Medvedev said Monday was “irrevocable” - Moscow is now pressing for regime change in Georgia.

Foreign minister Sergey Lavrov warned that for the West to support Georgian President Mikhail Saakashvili would be a "historic mistake", and called for an arms embargo "while a different government turns Georgia into a normal state". He again suggested that US military ships had carried arms to Georgia as well as humanitarian supplies.

Russia, Medvedev declared, would no longer accept a situation whereby a single country, like the US, “sought global domination.”

Regarding the call by some EU members for sanctions against Russia, German foreign minister Frank-Walter Steinmeier warned Europe would only hurt itself if it were to “get emotional and slam doors.” :rolleyes:

He spoke for the majority who are wary of alienating Russia, an important trading partner and major energy supplier. Russia supplies the union with a third of its oil and 40 percent of its natural gas.

Germany relies on Russia for 34 percent of its oil imports and 36 percent of its natural gas consumption. Slovakia, Finland and Bulgaria depend on Russia for more than 90 percent of their gas.

This dependency will increase as winter approaches.

A ceasefire ended the fighting which erupted Aug. 7 when Georgian troops attempted to retake South Ossetia. Russian forces pushed into Georgia to repel the attack and have refused to return to their pre-war positions.

______________________

IF EU INTRODUCES SANCTIONS AGAINST RUSSIA, EUROPE WILL HAVE SEVERE PROBLEMS WITH FUEL ( NO! YA THINK? :eek: ) TRANSLATION: "This is our firm position, but if you don't like it, we'll scrap it - in the interests of DIPLOMACY of course". ( COMMENT: The "Finlandization of Europe has begun - ahead of schedule)

FROM PRAVDA: Front page / Russia / Economics - 29.08.2008 Source: Pravda.Ru French Foreign Minister Bernard Kouchner stated that the European Union would be discussing two variants of sanctions against Russia at a forthcoming summit. The Polish variant stipulates the introduction of rather tough measures, whereas the Italian variant contains only "abstract criticism" of Russia’s actions. :rolleyes: The soft variant contains a requirement to pull out Russian troops from the territory of Georgia, from the port of Poti and buffer zones. In addition, the EU will ask for guarantees from Russia not to use its present line of behavior against other countries. The tough variant of the document stipulates the introduction of financial and economic sanctions against Russia. According to this draft resolution, the EU may recommend large business to cut its financial investments in Russia and recognize the Russian market as highly unstable and risky. To make matters worse, the European Union may recommend European banks not to loan up Russian banks and companies. [ :eek: ] Moscow hopes to conduct negotiations with several of its European partners in an attempt to push them to abstract formulations and abstain from sanctions. The talks will most likely be conducted with Moscow’s potential allies – Germany, Italy, Spain, France and Finland. Russia may offer these countries a change of the Russian stance on the Iranian problem and economic preferences in return to their support. Europe may suspend the talks on the partnership and cooperation agreement and activate efforts aimed to diversify fuel shipments to Europe. [ GASP! ] The first measure does not seem to be of much importance to Moscow, although the second one can be quite dangerous. Russia may have severe problems with its gas pipeline projects known as the Northern Stream and the Southern Stream. In addition, Europe will most likely decide to accelerate the implementation of the Nabucco project that will deliver Caspian hydrocarbons to Europe bypassing Russia. If Europe eventually decides to introduce sanctions against Russia, at least one Russian oil company may reduce crude shipments to Europe at Russian government’s request. Russia may cut its oil shipments particularly to Poland and Germany. A reduction may occur already on September 1, Reuters reported with reference to British media. It is worthy of note that Prime Minister Putin stated in his recent interview with CNN that Moscow would not reduce its oil and gas shipments to Europe because Russia depends on its customers, just like the customers depend on Russia’s resources. Russia’s Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov described the idea of European sanctions against Russia as “a product of ill imagination.” Russia’s ambassador to the European Union, Vladimir Chizhov, urged the EU to abstain from the sanctions against Moscow. [ FLASH ALERT! ] It has just been reported that the European Union leaders will not decide on sanctions against Russia at a summit Monday in Brussels. [ :eek: ] A high-ranking official in President Nicolas Sarkozy's office says that for now "we don't foresee any sanctions decided on by the European Council,” the AP reports. The official acknowledges that some countries are pushing for sanctions against Russia over its crisis with Georgia. But Sarkozy's office believes Europe must concentrate now on pressuring Russia to apply a cease-fire agreement. France currently holds the EU presidency. The official spoke Friday on condition of anonymity because of office policy. He elaborated on remarks by France's foreign minister, who has said sanctions "were being considered".

[GRG55]

Re: Russians Sending A Message to Europe...

...Germany relies on Russia for 34 percent of its oil imports and 36 percent of its natural gas consumption...

...This dependency will increase as winter approaches...

This is what happens when a heavily industrialized country institutes a misguided political effort to "save the planet" resulting in the permanent shuttering of its coal and nuclear power plants, with the expectation that windmills and burning municipal garbage will replace the lost energy.

Thank Gawd the USA has its FIRE economy, instead of being heavily industrialized like Germany. Should work much better on this side of the Atlantic, eh...:rolleyes:

Frankly Europe should sell its petroleum pipelines, fuel distribution terminals and marketing agencies to Gazprom and Rosneft. They won't be worth much when the Russians inevitably cut off the energy in any case.

[ASH]

Re: Russians Sending A Message to Europe...

Old Europe will not take a tough stance against anyone, anywhere, for any reason (not even the Serbs in Bosnia). Because Old Europe is both politically and militarily weak. And that is unlikely to change any time soon.

I am on the same page as GRG55 and Lukester, with regard to the posts in this thread.

Since military spending has come up before in loose connection to these events, I feel I should point out that "Old" Europe's military weakness is tied both to its defense spending and to its political weakness.

Earlier, it was pointed out that American defense spending as a percentage of GDP is out of line with Europe, the implication being that a more civilized nation would cut its defense expenditures and spend more on social programs. I didn't raise the issue at the time, but the flip side to this point is that Europe is militarily weak.

I cannot locate the reference (I will find it if requested), but I have read that the cost-effectiveness of Europe's defense spending is lower than that of the United States, meaning that in addition to spending less, they also get less capability per Euro of what they do spend. (Strangely, this seems to mirror the inefficiency of American spending on healthcare.) Military spending is certainly something that benefits from economies of scale. For instance, the F-22 raptor cost about $28 billion to develop, and a production run of 183 jets is presently estimated to cost about $34 billion to procure. That makes the unit cost around $339 million per fighter (including R&D), even though the incremental cost of making additional aircraft is estimated to be about $138 million at this point. Obviously, the cost-per-fighter will look worse and worse the smaller the production run. Small procurements of cutting edge military hardware is very inefficient. There are also big issues of duplication of effort and the fact that some capabilities (like a carrier force) simply don't scale-down very well. As an organization, the EU seems to be well aware of these problems, and multi-national projects such as the Typhoon Eurofighter attempt to address them. Still, the military weakness is fundamentally rooted in the political weakness of separate sovereignty of the member nations... so long as the member nations have separate national identities and separate national interests, there is a limit to how common an EU-wide defense policy (and shared EU resources) can be.

I will repeat a point I made earlier about American striving for a unipolar world being a matter of (transitory) opportunity. Aside from political disunity, the other reason "Old" Europe is militarily weak is that for the most part American hegemony has been their servant. Recently, American military might has been directed at objectives that are not palatable to most European citizens, but neither has it been strongly counter to their immediate national interest. NATO ensures that American military power is broadly in support of European sovereignty, rather than against it -- and so long as this is so (as perhaps BlackVoid will appreciate, given his observation about national interest) -- there is no percentage in rich European nations spending what it would take to compete with American military power. The same is true of Japan, and the richest Middle Eastern states. Only with the economic rise of China -- and the resurgent finances of Russia -- are there wealthy countries with sufficiently strong motivations to contest American military superiority as well as the financial resources with which to do so.

To go back to GRG55's point, Europe has very limited tools with which to pressure Russia. It lacks the force structure to apply military pressure, it lacks the political unity required to apply diplomatic pressure, and in any case, it is for the moment under Russia's thumb with respect to energy. Only in the most narrow sense does the lack of a firm European response indicate that it is not in their "interest" -- it is the narrow sense in which an unarmed man's interests are not served by picking a fight with an armed adversary.

[c1ue]

Re: Russians Sending A Message to Europe...

ASH,

You have a valid point about much of Europe having traded economic advantage for military security in some cases, but don't forget France and the UK both have nuclear weapons.

In any case, it is unclear how having a bunch of fighter jets, tanks, and soldiers would help in this case - the fundamental issue is whether Europe's 300M are better off living with the demanding 150M Russians or not.

Europe doesn't have a big ocean in between as a barrier, nor is Europe nearly as unified in purpose as the USA.

Thus even should Europe somehow become unified in its behavior and militarized - the love 'em or leave 'em question remains.

You will note some interesting points:

1) Europe - outside of the UK and a few Eastern European nations - has not exactly been foaming at the mouth to support the US in its other foreign policy goals: Iraq, Iran, Israel, and a number of other situations.

2) Russia's behavior has impacted its former marchland nations, but has not thus far been directed in any way at Old Europe.

In fact, it could be argued that the Pole's biggest danger isn't Russia, it is Russia and Germany getting together. Between one or the other, Poland has been a red headed stepchild for hundreds of years.

For that matter, Russia and Iran would have the same effect on Georgia.

So all those Eastern European nations who have been having a grand old time poking Russian eyes have really been just storing up future incoming whup a** because they haven't been paying attention to what the REAL dangers could be.

I do understand the desire to be free and independent, but there are plenty of even recent examples where antagonizing your near and powerful neighbors doesn't get nullified by getting far away powerful friends.

Especially when these friends are having problems of their own.

[Rajiv]

Re: Russians Sending A Message to Europe...

Russia's President has given his first reaction to the EU summit on the conflict in Georgia, in an interview with euronews. Speaking at his summer residence in Sochi on the Black Sea, Dmitry Medvedev said that the bloc's decision not to impose sanctions on Russia was "positive." But he added that the EU "did not fully understand" Russia's motives in Georgia.

While the EU threatened to postpone talks with Russia on a new partnership pact, it did not adopt the sanctions some countries were demanding.

Also - Medvedev Names Russia's Five Key Foreign Policy Principles

BOCHAROV RUCHEI (Sochi), August 31 (Itar-Tass) -- Russian President Dmitry Medvedev has declared five principles of the Russian foreign policy following the recognition of independent South Ossetia and Abkhazia.

“While implementing the Russian foreign policy, I will be guided with five principles,” Medvedev told three Russian television channels at his Bocharov Ruchei residence in Sochi on Sunday. He had come to Sochi for a number of domestic and international meetings.

First of all, Russia recognizes the supremacy of international legal fundamentals, which define relations between civilized nations, Medvedev said.

“Secondly, the world must be multi-polar. Single polarity is unacceptable,” he said. “Russia cannot accept a world order, in which any decisions will be made by a sole nation, even such a serious one as the United States. Such a world order will be unstable and fraught with conflicts.”

Thirdly, Russia does not want a confrontation with any country, Medvedev said. “Russia does not want isolation. We will develop as much as possible friendly relations with Europe, the United States and other countries of the world,” he said.

The protection of life and dignity of Russian citizens “no matter where they live” is an absolute priority, Medvedev said. “We will also stand up for the interests of our business community abroad. Everyone must know that an aggression will be deterred,” he said.

The fifth principle is Russia’s interests in friendly regions, Medvedev said. “The same as other countries, Russia has areas of privileged interests. These areas house countries, to which we are linked with friendly ties,” he said, adding that he implied not only neighboring countries.

As for the future development of diplomatic relations, Medvedev said, that would depend not only on Russia but also “on our friends, partners and the international community at large.” “They have a choice,” the president remarked.

[BlackVoid]

Re: Russians Sending A Message to Europe...

"NATO ensures that American military power is broadly in support of European sovereignty, rather than against it"

I am sorry but that is not so. NATO ensures that Europe stays under US influence. It also prevents an EU - Russia Alliance. These are the main goals of NATO.
Also the US now needs the EU much more than the other way round. Without Europe the US access to the Middle-East and Africa is compromised. Europe does not need US military protection if they make peace or an alliance with Russia.

[ASH]

Re: Russians Sending A Message to Europe...

Europe does not need US military protection if they make peace or an alliance with Russia.

Europe has recently seen what alliance with Russia entails.

[Supercilious]

Re: Russians Sending A Message to Europe...

First of all, Russia recognizes the supremacy of international legal fundamentals, which define relations between civilized nations, Medvedev said.

Yeah right... like breaking the international agreements itself had signed or respecting the international recognized borders of Georgia.

The protection of life and dignity of Russian citizens “no matter where they live” is an absolute priority, Medvedev said. “We will also stand up for the interests of our business community abroad. Everyone must know that an aggression will be deterred,” he said.

This is outright funny. Similar rhetoric was used by Hitler for taking apart Czechoslovakia. There are also important russian minorities not only un Ukraine but also in the Baltic states which are part of NATO ;)


But there ii the other side of the story:
http://www.guardian.co.uk/business/feedarticle/7774678

MOSCOW, Sept 4 (Reuters) - The Russia central bank stepped into the market and sold up to $4 billion on Thursday to brake the rouble's fall, while shares went into free-fall despite a much awaited shareholder peace deal on oil company TNK-BP. The rouble fell as low as 30.41, its lowest since the current composition of the basket was set at 0.45 euros and 0.55 dollars in February 2007.
Russia's benchmark share index closed 3.94 percent lower at 1,526.57 <.IRTS>, less than a point above the intraday low that marked the index's weakest level this year. The RTS has not seen levels this low since October 2006.
Falling Western markets and fears that capital outflows could accelerate outweighed a long-awaited end to a conflict between BP and its local partners, which had played out in the international media and poisoned sentiment.
"It is easier to undermine investor trust than it is to revive it," Da Vinci Capital Management Head of Research Alexander Orlov said.
The rouble's move took its combined losses for the last two days to around 60 kopecks or 2 percent.
That appeared to galvanise the central bank into its first major intervention since it sold an estimated $12-$13 billion in two days during the height of Russia's military conflict with Georgia in early August.
"The move from a fixed-currency regime to a more flexible one is part of the central bank's long-term strategy," said Vladimir Osakovsky, a Moscow-based analyst at UniCredit.
"But we have growing political risks in Russia which have caused capital outflows. Due to this, the volatility turned out to be much greater and the central bank is playing the role of a stabiliser of extremes."

CONFLICTS, OIL
The rouble closed around 30.39 versus the basket. "It seems that the central bank's offer is located around 30.40-30.41 roubles to the basket," said a dealer at a major foreign bank in Moscow. Russian asset prices have been slashed by the outflow of foreign capital, with foreign investors spooked by the TNK-BP conflict, an unexpected government attack on Mechel, and the military conflict with Georgia and the subsequent souring of relations with the West.
A fall in oil prices from their July peak also weighed heavy. Oil and gas shares account for more than half of the RTS index.
Da Vinci's Orlov said the stock market was rife with rumours that investment committees had decided to pull more money out of Russia in anticipation of redemptions, and would not reverse their position until the scale of further outflows became clear.
Analysts at BNP Paribas said Thursday's data on gold and forex reserves [ID:nMOS005307] indicated a further $2 billion in capital had left Russia last week, adding to outflows of over $20 billion since the start of the conflict with Georgia.

[BlackVoid]

Re: Russians Sending A Message to Europe...

Europe has recently seen what alliance with Russia entails.

How? Where? Was Georgia allied to Russia? What do you mean?

Recently we have seen what an alliance with the USA entails if you are a neighbor to Russia.

[BlackVoid]

Re: Russians Sending A Message to Europe...

Yeah right... like breaking the international agreements itself had signed or respecting the international recognized borders of Georgia.

The precedent was set by Kosovo and Iraq I am afraid. Double standards?

[c1ue]

Re: Russians Sending A Message to Europe...

Yeah right... like breaking the international agreements itself had signed or respecting the international recognized borders of Georgia.

Well, technically Georgia itself is a breakaway republic from Russia.

As I mentioned previously, prior to its present existence, Georgia has had a total of 3 years of independence since 1500 AD or so: 3 years from 1918 to 1921 (after WWI and Russian Revolution/Communist takeover).

Given that South Ossetia has been out of Georgian control since 1992, I would think 'time in grade' would be pretty much close enough for true independence.

Certainly Russia has been heavy handed in this whole affair, but it is disingenuous at best to say that the US involvement is purely for 'democratic' purposes.

In fact, the historical record will show that US 'support' tends to be more of non-democratic nations than the democratic ones. Georgia itself has shown more of the former than latter - did you notice the link I posted of Saakashvili storming a TV station? Not even Bush has done that.

Annoying how actual behavior under realpolitik doesn't mesh well with the official propaganda line.

[Supercilious]

Re: Russians Sending A Message to Europe...

The precedent was set by Kosovo and Iraq I am afraid. Double standards?

It was not. Kosovo citizens haven't received US or EU passports before the invasion and there were no NATO "peacekeepers" in Serbia who were responsible for ethnic cleansing of Sebian villages before Milosevic started to use the Serbian army on Albanian villages. Iraq is even further away from any resemblance.

I didn't agree with the invasion of Iraq or the bombing of Serbia but there is a big difference between Georgia and Kosova ( and Iraq).

What the russians are doing now reminds me of something else:

"We have no interest in oppressing other people. We are not moved by hatred against any other nation. We bear no grudge. I know how grave a thing war is. I wanted to spare our people such an evil. It is not so much the country [of Czechoslovakia]; it is rather its leader [Dr. Edward Benes]. He has led a reign of terror. He has hurled countless people into the profoundest misery. Through his continuous terrorism, he has succeeded in reducing millions of his people to silence. The Czech maintenance of a tremendous military arsenal can only be regarded as a focus of danger. We have displayed a truly unexampled patience, but I am no longer willing to remain inactive while this madman ill-treats millions of human beings."
-- Adolf Hitler, April 14, 1939, justifying the German invasion of Czechoslovakia.




"The wave of appalling terrorism against the [minority] inhabitants of Poland, and the atrocities that have been taking place in that country are terrible for the victims, but intolerable for a Great Power which has been expected to remain a passive onlooker. We will not continue to tolerate the persecution of the minority, the killing of many, and their forcible removal under the most cruel conditions. I see no way by which I can induce the government of Poland to adopt a peaceful solution. But I should despair of any honourable future for my own people if we were not, in one way or another, to solve this question."
-- Adolf Hitler, August 23, 1939, justifying the German invasion of Poland.


Nor can it be demanded of the Soviet Government that it remain indifferent to the fate of its blood brothers, the Ukrainians and Byelorussians [White Russians] inhabiting Poland, who even formerly were without rights and who now have been abandoned entirely to their fate. The Soviet Government deems it its sacred duty to extend the hand of assistance to its brother Ukrainians and brother Byelorussians inhabiting Poland.

-- Vyacheslav Molotov, September 17, 1939, ustifying the Soviet invasion of Poland

Actually, IMHO what Putin is doing in Georgia resembles best Stalin's invasion of Finland.

[c1ue]

Re: Russians Sending A Message to Europe...

It was not. Kosovo citizens haven't received US or EU passports before the invasion and there were no NATO "peacekeepers" in Serbia who were responsible for ethnic cleansing of Sebian villages before Milosevic started to use the Serbian army on Albanian villages. Iraq is even further away from any resemblance.

Which invasion are you speaking of? In fact, Kosovans had UN passports after the violation of Yugoslavian sovereignty.

These UN passports were handed out in 1999.

You should note that South Ossetia - not being recognized by Georgia - meant that those living there could not get Georgian passports.

However, any former citizen of the Soviet Union was eligible to ask for a Russian passport up to 4 years after the fall of the USSR.

Thus do you REALLY think no one in South Ossetia or Abkhazia had any passports up until this year? Because I can damn well guarantee Georgia wasn't granting them.

Sure, you can point to Hitler's invasions as an example. But neither in Czechoslovakia, nor in Poland, nor in the Sudetenland were any of Hitler's early incursions in support of regions which had been militarily and governmentally autonomous from their supposed countries for FIFTEEN years.

So it is more than a little foolish to equate the Putin's behavior in Georgia with Hitler's straight invasion of sovereign nations.

In fact, on the grand scale of things, the UN's interference in sovereign Yugoslavian affairs is far closer to Hitler's unilateral violations of sovereignty than Putin's enforcement of one and a half decades of de-facto secession.

This is what Putin had alluded to when he warned the UN and the US about unilaterally splitting Kosovo off from Serbia.

Sure, Putin supported those regions just as certain nations in Europe supported the South in the American Civil War.

But I'm still confused why it was ok for the US to support secessionist states in South Korea, Vietnam, and Kosovo, but it is not ok for Russia to support secessionist states in South Ossetia and Abkhazia.

Both Hanoi and Pyongyang were the national capitals for Vietnam and Korea, respectively prior to the splits of those two nations.

Of course, if you leave behind the Mom and Apple Pie crap and just view all of this as a naked power struggle, it is much easier to understand.