Buffett unwinds his $21B bet against the dollar

[ajerimez2]

It's short on details, but this article on Yahoo Finance mentions that he just completely unwound his anti-dollar play. As a longtime reader and gold/fx/commodities investor who has nervously watched his gains dissipiate in the past several months, I am beginning to wonder if I'm in the wrong camp. Thoughts?

http://biz.yahoo.com/rb/080822/buffett.html

Implications of this news?

[FRED]

Re: Buffett unwinds his $21B bet against the dollar

It's short on details, but this article on Yahoo Finance mentions that he just completely unwound his anti-dollar play. As a longtime reader and gold/fx/commodities investor who has nervously watched his gains dissipiate in the past several months, I am beginning to wonder if I'm in the wrong camp. Thoughts?

http://biz.yahoo.com/rb/080822/buffett.html

Implications of this news?

Didn't Buffett dump his silver position at $10 just before the price nearly doubled?

If it's stocks, it is wise to buy what Buffett's buying.

If it's dollar related, perhaps wise to buy when he's selling?

[phirang]

Re: Buffett unwinds his $21B bet against the dollar

It's short on details, but this article on Yahoo Finance mentions that he just completely unwound his anti-dollar play. As a longtime reader and gold/fx/commodities investor who has nervously watched his gains dissipiate in the past several months, I am beginning to wonder if I'm in the wrong camp. Thoughts?

http://biz.yahoo.com/rb/080822/buffett.html

Implications of this news?

Buffet sucks on Macro. I would be keen to know what Soros is up to, though...

[LargoWinch]

Re: Buffett unwinds his $21B bet against the dollar

It's short on details, but this article on Yahoo Finance mentions that he just completely unwound his anti-dollar play. As a longtime reader and gold/fx/commodities investor who has nervously watched his gains dissipiate in the past several months, I am beginning to wonder if I'm in the wrong camp. Thoughts?

http://biz.yahoo.com/rb/080822/buffett.html

Implications of this news?

Reminder: Ask me the same question in 10 years...

By then, 3 Billion Chindians will buy a lot more food, metals and yes...gold.

[Guest]

Re: Buffett unwinds his $21B bet against the dollar

Didn't Buffett dump his silver position at $10 just before the price nearly doubled? If it's stocks, it is wise to buy what Buffett's buying. If it's dollar related, perhaps wise to buy when he's selling?

Actually there are some voices out there calling for a USD bust-out here that will surprise everyone. Buffet may see this also, where iTulip does not? This is why I posted a question on that gold to $650 thread asking for EJ's view on the potential for a USD "channel busting" move - where it keeps on powering right out of it's downtrend in a reprise of 2005. Thoughts on that Fred? Does iTulip have any qualms about it's likelihood of resuming a downtrend as the predominant story for the dollar in 2008-2009?

[FRED]

Re: Buffett unwinds his $21B bet against the dollar

Actually there are some voices out there calling for a USD bust-out here that will surprise everyone. Buffet may see this also, where iTulip does not? This is why I posted a question on that gold to $650 thread asking for EJ's view on the potential for a USD "channel busting" move - where it keeps on powering right out of it's downtrend in a reprise of 2005. Thoughts on that Fred? Does iTulip have any qualms about it's likelihood of resuming a downtrend as the predominant story for the dollar in 2008-2009?

Dollar Ratchet theory says the dollar trades sideways for a while as in 2006.

[Guest]

Re: Buffett unwinds his $21B bet against the dollar

Dollar Ratchet theory says the dollar trades sideways for a while as in 2006.

I like the sound of that a lot better than a USD breakout - hope it works out that way for personal investment reasons. Is it possible that the Dollar Ratchet is manifested in the USD index as a USD rise, due to Euro / GBP correction down vs. USD, while gold / silver continue to drift up? Or the USD sideways drift in the Dollar Ratchet theory says all currencies drift sideways in loose alignment?

[photoncounter]

Re: Buffett unwinds his $21B bet against the dollar

I am a huge fan of Warren Buffet and his investing philosophy, but, I was unpleasantly surprised to hear his responses to questions during the live discussion after the documentary I.O.U.S.A. He seemed surprisingly optimistic about the whole scenario, and to me, his responses seemed to be the least educated. I agree, MAY BE not as good with the macro stuff.

[c1ue]

Re: Buffett unwinds his $21B bet against the dollar

Sir Warren did sell his silver too early, but then again he also didn't lose money.

I've also noted before: Sir Warren will play ball at times - he's done it with Salomon, he's done it with AIG, and I'd not be surprised if he's doing it with the US FIRE economy.

After all, he is ultimately an insurance guy!

[phirang]

Re: Buffett unwinds his $21B bet against the dollar

Sir Warren did sell his silver too early, but then again he also didn't lose money.

I've also noted before: Sir Warren will play ball at times - he's done it with Salomon, he's done it with AIG, and I'd not be surprised if he's doing it with the US FIRE economy.

After all, he is ultimately an insurance guy!

Buffet is pro 100% death-tax... good for those annuities, eh?

[GRG55]

Re: Buffett unwinds his $21B bet against the dollar

I like the sound of that a lot better than a USD breakout - hope it works out that way for personal investment reasons. Is it possible that the Dollar Ratchet is manifested in the USD index as a USD rise, due to Euro / GBP correction down vs. USD, while gold / silver continue to drift up? Or the USD sideways drift in the Dollar Ratchet theory says all currencies drift sideways in loose alignment?

The only part of the US economy that is not on life support is exporters, including agriculture. The roughly 10% move of the US$ against the Euro and Loonie is already going to crimp the profits in that sector. How much more of an increase against major trade partner currencies do you think US exporters (or the Fed, or the Treasury, or the Administration) can tolerate? Any sort of channel busting uptrend in the US$ is going to be met with cheers by many of the businesses on my side of the border, and no doubt wake up those dozing Boeing lobbyists on K Street [who haven't had much to do lately other than block the tanker deal]

[santafe2]

Re: Buffett unwinds his $21B bet against the dollar

Sir Warren did sell his silver too early, but then again he also didn't lose money.

I've also noted before: Sir Warren will play ball at times - he's done it with Salomon, he's done it with AIG, and I'd not be surprised if he's doing it with the US FIRE economy.

After all, he is ultimately an insurance guy!

I agree, it's difficult to parse too finely the investment decisions of the world's wealthiest investor. I became interested in silver in 1998 after the so called 'Buffett bump'. It seems reasonable to me that Berkshire moved out of silver when the Barclays' ETF was launched. The Berkshire holdings were 130MM ounces and the initial Barclay's ETF backing was 130MM ounces. Shortly after that WB said his company was out of it's silver holdings. As he says, he likes investments that pay a dividend.

To say he's not a macro guy as others have pointed out makes no sense to me. With regard to the insurance industry, he's the macro guy. He's just not a hard asset guy. Even though he may have seen some upside, I suppose he wasn't comfortable with the investment. Every good investor I know, has a great sense of their comfort level with each investment.

[metalman]

Re: Buffett unwinds his $21B bet against the dollar

I agree, it's difficult to parse too finely the investment decisions of the world's wealthiest investor. I became interested in silver in 1998 after the so called 'Buffett bump'. It seems reasonable to me that Berkshire moved out of silver when the Barclays' ETF was launched. The Berkshire holdings were 130MM ounces and the initial Barclay's ETF backing was 130MM ounces. Shortly after that WB said his company was out of it's silver holdings. As he says, he likes investments that pay a dividend.

To say he's not a macro guy as others have pointed out makes no sense to me. With regard to the insurance industry, he's the macro guy. He's just not a hard asset guy. Even though he may have seen some upside, I suppose he wasn't comfortable with the investment. Every good investor I know, has a great sense of their comfort level with each investment.

exactly. he hates gold, for example, and has said very amusing things about it. he likes companies because they build value. i can respect that.

[Starving Steve]

Re: Buffett unwinds his $21B bet against the dollar

I like the sound of that a lot better than a USD breakout - hope it works out that way for personal investment reasons. Is it possible that the Dollar Ratchet is manifested in the USD index as a USD rise, due to Euro / GBP correction down vs. USD, while gold / silver continue to drift up? Or the USD sideways drift in the Dollar Ratchet theory says all currencies drift sideways in loose alignment?

I think all world currencies will go down the toilet together in a loose alignment. That means inflation rages, and interest rates in all countries are kept non-positive in real terms. I think that is how this fiat money experiment ends, worldwide.

Occasional short periods of world deflation will be viewed by central bankers as intolerable, and central bankers will use these periods as excuses to lower interest rates deeper into negative territory and further expand money supply.

[Spartacus]

Re: Buffett unwinds his $21B bet against the dollar

As he says, he likes investments that pay a dividend.

this is what makes me believe Ted Butler's thesis - Buffett tried to get into Silver leasing and shorting and was shorn of his Silver.

He did not sell it willingly.

At the very least, he did not sell at $10 -
he claims his ideal investment is one he holds "forever", and he had waited on Silver for 15 years,
and sells it at the first signs of life? to make a $3 or "profit" per oz?

If his patience ran out I suggest it ran out around 2003 - 15 years with little gain (just before Silver started moving again) and that Silver sat in London, and Barclays insiders knew they could get their hands on it (or maybe had it outright after Buffett) and told the SEC that in confidence in order to get the ETF approved. The registered particpants buying the Silver to put into SLV were initially buying from Barclays. (all this is my supposition, but the "it was taken, not voluntarily sold" idea is Butler's)