China oil exports in July drop 7% from year earlier

[c1ue]

http://www.reuters.com/article/busin...14048520080811

China's crude imports unexpectedly fell 7 percent in July to a seven-month low in the steepest monthly drop since January 2005, as refiners balked at soaring crude costs amid lagging domestic fuel prices.

And this is with both with their Olympics buildup and an energy subsidy.

Perhaps their demand truly is export related?

Or maybe everyone in China decided not to drive in July.

[phirang]

Re: China oil exports in July drop 7% from year earlier

http://www.reuters.com/article/busin...14048520080811



And this is with both with their Olympics buildup and an energy subsidy.

Perhaps their demand truly is export related?

Or maybe everyone in China decided not to drive in July.

The gov in China is chasing cost-push inflation, and across the board they're fighting energy inflation by forcing industries shut, etc. That plus Olympics would explain it.

[touchring]

Re: China oil exports in July drop 7% from year earlier

http://www.reuters.com/article/busin...14048520080811



And this is with both with their Olympics buildup and an energy subsidy.

Perhaps their demand truly is export related?

Or maybe everyone in China decided not to drive in July.

I guess they can afford not to drive. Why drive when you can take a bus or the subway?

I won't drive nowadays other than on dates! Can't expect my date to go back by train?

[ocelotl]

Re: China oil exports in July drop 7% from year earlier

I guess they can afford not to drive. Why drive when you can take a bus or the subway?

I won't drive nowadays other than on dates! Can't expect my date to go back by train?

I don't drive, period. When on a date, I take a taxi to drop the date back. It's the good thing of living on a city that has 1 taxi for every 30 cars...

* Edit *

Now, as for the decrease on exports, we cannot be sure about PRC published statistics, but, Can we take into consideration a demand decrease by all the G7 economies as a factor?

[touchring]

Re: China oil exports in July drop 7% from year earlier

Now, as for the decrease on exports, we cannot be sure about PRC published statistics, but, Can we take into consideration a demand decrease by all the G7 economies as a factor?

The PRC is gaining exports on tech goods, e.g. telco, satellite, medical, industrial equipment, which they are rapidly gaining market share against European and American manufacturers due to the price advantage, while dropping in low end - toys, slippers, garment - as a fellow forumer said, throwing the low end stuff to Vietnam.

Depending on who you talk you, businesss might be extremely bad or fairly good.

[touchring]

Re: China oil exports in July drop 7% from year earlier

I don't drive, period. When on a date, I take a taxi to drop the date back. It's the good thing of living on a city that has 1 taxi for every 30 cars...

There is 1 taxi out of 21 cars in singapore, but almost impossible to get a cab during peak hours, well, not impossible, but wait 30-45 minutes for a cab.

[phirang]

Re: China oil exports in July drop 7% from year earlier

Anecdotally, you see Chinese cell phones, cars, and pretty much all the other crap the Japanese used to make all over Africa and the non-opec middle east countries.

[c1ue]

Re: China oil exports in July drop 7% from year earlier

The gov in China is chasing cost-push inflation, and across the board they're fighting energy inflation by forcing industries shut, etc. That plus Olympics would explain it.

Sure, but then how do you explain the oil price increase in the last few months with China using less each succeeding month?

Doesn't seem like a situation ideal for supply constraints.

Also I am unclear how closing down industries and putting a lot of people out of work is amenable to a happy population.

I can believe a localized activity in Beijing to spruce up for the Olympics, but the majority of manufacturing is further south anyway.

[phirang]

Re: China oil exports in July drop 7% from year earlier

Sure, but then how do you explain the oil price increase in the last few months with China using less each succeeding month?

Doesn't seem like a situation ideal for supply constraints.

Also I am unclear how closing down industries and putting a lot of people out of work is amenable to a happy population.

I can believe a localized activity in Beijing to spruce up for the Olympics, but the majority of manufacturing is further south anyway.

Well, recall that China reduced their oil subsidy, too.

[touchring]

Re: China oil exports in July drop 7% from year earlier

Sure, but then how do you explain the oil price increase in the last few months with China using less each succeeding month?

Doesn't seem like a situation ideal for supply constraints.

Also I am unclear how closing down industries and putting a lot of people out of work is amenable to a happy population.

You'll be surprised how they met out unpopular measures over here. Like they ban chewing gum in singapore, because it cost more money to remove used gum. When it comes to national interest, the happiness of the population isn't a consideration.

People go out of work all the time. When state companies go bankrupt, people go out of work. If you're out of job, you'll find ways to support yourself, work as a gabbage collector, plant vegetables and live a self-subsistent life. There's always a way out.

[GRG55]

Re: China oil exports in July drop 7% from year earlier

Sure, but then how do you explain the oil price increase in the last few months with China using less each succeeding month?

Doesn't seem like a situation ideal for supply constraints.

Also I am unclear how closing down industries and putting a lot of people out of work is amenable to a happy population.

I can believe a localized activity in Beijing to spruce up for the Olympics, but the majority of manufacturing is further south anyway.

This idea that China must maintain some sort of "happy population" or contented subjects of the People's Government seems more a concoction of western mainstream media and the spin machine on Wall Street.

This is a government that will not hesitate to order the army to shoot its own people if necessary. Why would they feel they need to do anything more to maintain law and order? EJ has Chinese relatives; would be curious if they agree with the standard line that China "must" create jobs, urbanize, etc in order for The Party to stay in power.

[touchring]

Re: China oil exports in July drop 7% from year earlier

This idea that China must maintain some sort of "happy population" or contented subjects of the People's Government seems more a concoction of western mainstream media and the spin machine on Wall Street.

This is a government that will not hesitate to order the army to shoot its own people if necessary. Why would they feel they need to do anything more to maintain law and order? EJ has Chinese relatives; would be curious if they agree with the standard line that China "must" create jobs, urbanize, etc in order for The Party to stay in power.

If anyone is wondering what happens when the Chinese population becomes unhappy, one should look at the aftermath of the Sichuan earthquake when 7000 school rooms collapse -

The central government estimates that over 7,000 schoolrooms collapsed in the earthquake.^[127] Due to PRC's one-child policy, many families lost an only child when schools in the region collapsed during the earthquake.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2008_Sichuan_earthquake

Meanwhile, some consolatory changes to the policy for the "distress population".

Consequently, local officials in Sichuan province have lifted the restriction for families whose only child was either killed or severely injured in the disaster.^[128] So-called "illegal children" under 18 years of age may be registered as legal replacements for their dead siblings; if the dead child was illegal, no further outstanding fines would apply. Reimbursment would not, however, be offered for fines that were already levied. Lifting of the restrictions may come as scant comfort to many, as some of the affected parents are too old to conceive again, while others have had themselves sterilized.^[128]

[c1ue]

Re: China oil exports in July drop 7% from year earlier

This idea that China must maintain some sort of "happy population" or contented subjects of the People's Government seems more a concoction of western mainstream media and the spin machine on Wall Street.

That may be - but 'happy' in my context means not shooting at the Party officials.

One of the reasons China stomped on Tiananmen so hard was the fear that the pro-democracy demonstrations would unleash the general discontent of the population.

It has been long enough now - and the population of China is young enough - that few remember how bad things were before the Revolution, or even the Cultural Revo purges.

China's harshness on dissidents hardly speaks toward a passive population - rather to me it shows a considerable caution against allowing dissenting opinion to gain any momentum.

You'll be surprised how they met out unpopular measures over here. Like they ban chewing gum in singapore, because it cost more money to remove used gum. When it comes to national interest, the happiness of the population isn't a consideration.

Singapore - as a much richer nation - hardly serves as an example. While I have been to the poorer parts of the city, these hardly compare to the hard-scrabble farmers in many rural areas or to the migrant laborers in the Shenzhen factory combines.

I hardly think people will fight a revolution over chewing gum, but having no hope for the future and having a miserable existence now - that's different. The leaders in China remember those days and how they themselves were successful. That's why they do what they do.

People go out of work all the time. When state companies go bankrupt, people go out of work. If you're out of job, you'll find ways to support yourself, work as a gabbage collector, plant vegetables and live a self-subsistent life. There's always a way out.

Touchring,

Have you ever done any of these things? If you are a migrant rural worker in one of the cities in China - none of these options will work for you.

Being poor in a rich nation means having less crap, but generally not having to worry about eating.

Being poor in a poor nation means starvation, disease, and death.

Try being an untouchable in India for a month.

[Rajiv]

Re: China oil exports in July drop 7% from year earlier

Try being an untouchable in India for a month.

Well said! I would only modify that slightly - "Try being a poor untouchable in India for a month."

There are many "untouchables" in India who are very well off -- and at the top of the Indian heirarchy. It is extremely tough being poor in India -- but when you add the "stigma" of belonging to a lower caste - it just makes things much worse.

[phirang]

Re: China oil exports in July drop 7% from year earlier

Interesting article on new Chinese FX market:

http://www.business-standard.com/ind...n&autono=44790