Russia: Poland risks attack because of US missiles

[Guest]

Re: Russia: Poland risks attack because of US missiles

I know, we in the Czech Republic have own experience with Russian invasion. 40th anniversary is next week...
Thatīs why I welcome radar in our country.

Honzajs119 - A relative of mine did a two year investigation of the death of Jan Masaryk and wrote about it. He was indeed "defenestrated" by KGB (thrown out of a window - 1948). This relative finished their final research in Praque during August of 1968, just as the Russian tanks rolled into that city. They got out of the country on a bus, with the active and very courageous help of some Czech women who got them through a Russian checkpoint. The evidence was overwhelming that Masaryk was assassinated by KGB in 1948 to crush any focal point of resistance to a pro-Russian-compliant communist party government. He was a natural leader for post war Czechoslovakia, and a once in a century patriot to his country.

Such things are not easily forgotten and can become a guiding part of the country's later political direction.

Western Europeans understand not enough about the depth of national feelings that remain in Poland, Czech Republic, etc. - in all Eastern Europe countries to forge alliences with the West and to prevent history from ever repeating itself. I think eastern Europe will experience some "interesting times" as the frontier to Russia when Peak Cheap Oil really begins to bite hard. EU political (and even military) solidarity to it's new eastern EU members in the event of future sharp tensions with Russia is not the strongest. But probably we will not again see actual war between Russia and Western Europe. Wars will be elsewhere.

Too many wars in Europe over the last 200 years, so that "Peace at all Costs" has become the new guiding principle. Russia can use this instinct in the West opportunistically once the energy supply question becomes a little bigger. Soon.

The Eastern European countries only don't fully understand that the America of today is "different" than it was 30 years ago. Americas internal problems make America also less reliable to it's international allies (probable, but not certain).

masaryk_jan2.jpg

[VIT]

Re: Russia: Poland risks attack because of US missiles

I am glad that Poland has approved US missiles. Together with US radar in the Czech Republic, it will connect these countries even more to West (although NATO members already).

Not sure I can agree with that.
Remember, how Poland and Czech was occupied just at the beginning of WW2. Can you remember any single case when British empire was doing something just to support ally without having its own interest. The point is the allies will support Eastern Europe if the would think it is better for them, only. And it does not relate to any agreements. Do you know how many agreements were before WWI, WW2, did they work ?

If somebody would look this from Earth outside he would observe that Eastern Europe countries just want to align with the main aggressor in today's world. Funny, unfortunately not. Again it confirms the nation-memory is more important then any real logic.

"Want the peace - prepare for war". Military strategy dictates that you need to destroy radars and defense-offensive systems first. That what Russian generals are saying. In this terms these countries will be at first strike.

For Americans who is not very familiar with Europe history, Poland attitude to Russia is some kind of historical intolerance with heavy background. (do not think I condemn any side, not, but this country was between West Europe and Russia so they have been divided all the time during all conflicts)
Russian - British empire 2-way historical intolerance. If somebody does not believe that read Continental press vs British.

As people we all can love each other but nations are as alive organisms - it needs some time for changes.

[VIT]

Re: Russia: Poland risks attack because of US missiles

I am not a warmonger, but when something bad is going on foreign policies quickly become pretty miserable. Just remember all countries before WW2.

[Guest]

Re: Russia: Poland risks attack because of US missiles

Here VIT - this one's for you. This is a joke that Eric Janszen posted some weeks or months ago. The Russian guy is the "hero of the story".

________________

Years ago a Russian friend Boris (real name) tells me a Russian joke that goes like this.

A Frenchman, an American and a Russian find themselves stranded together on a desert island. After a week, they stumble into a cave, starving and exhausted.

They come upon an Aladdin's lamp. They rub the lamp and and a harried Aladdin appears.

"You get two wishes. No time for the usual three. Hurry up. Frenchman, you first."

The Frenchman, without hesitation, says, "First wish, send me back to Paris. Second wish, re-unite me with my love, Belle."

"Fine. Off you go." And the Frenchman disappears.

The American says, "Yeh, send me back to New York City. Uh, get me back with my girl, Carol."

"Off you go," says the Aladdin. And the American disapears.

The Russian sits and thinks.

"C'mon. What's it gonna be. I ain't got all day," says the Aladdin.

"Get me a case of vodka," he replies. A case of vodka appears. The Russian starts drinking.

"One wish left. Hurry up. You got ten seconds to make up your mind and that's it," says the Aladdin.

"I hate drinking alone," the Russian replies. "Get those other two guys back here."

They appear and the Aladdin vanishes forever

[touchring]

Re: Russia: Poland risks attack because of US missiles

If somebody would look this from Earth outside he would observe that Eastern Europe countries just want to align with the main aggressor in today's world. Funny, unfortunately not. Again it confirms the nation-memory is more important then any real logic.

Nothing unusual, art of war - ally with distant countries. The US is far away across the atlantic.

[Shakespear]

Re: Russia: Poland risks attack because of US missiles

VIT

I'm with you on the fact that alliances only last as long as there is something to be gained. At the start of WWII both Poland and Czechs got a taste of how much they could count on others.

it will connect these countries even more to West

I think it was Kissinger who said something to the effect that no powerful country will fall on the blade for a little one.

[Supercilious]

Re: Russia: Poland risks attack because of US missiles

If somebody would look this from Earth outside he would observe that Eastern Europe countries just want to align with the main aggressor in today's world. Funny, unfortunately not. Again it confirms the nation-memory is more important then any real logic.

Maybe that happens because those Eastern Europe countries know very well what russian occupation means ... and who is the main aggressor ;) and their citizens cannot be fooled by the russian propaganda...

Here is an great piece from Pravda ... read and laugh:
http://english.pravda.ru/opinion/columnists/106136-0/

World Opinion Favors Russia - Winning the Media War

18.08.2008

Even Americans are saying, “Thank you Russia for standing up to the crackpots in control of our government.” As much as the corporate elitist media in the west blathers and carries on with lies and obfuscation about the events in Georgia and South Ossetia, as much as they try to cover up the facts and the truth and the war crimes committed by their puppet state, Georgia, they have failed to convince the world community.

Their all too numerous outlets are pummeling the world community with distortions, trying to shove the castor oil of the empire down our collective throats, but the gag reflex is well intact and their lies remain unpalatable. The empire is used to and expects everyone to jump when told to and to believe what they hear and read. They don’t expect and can’t understand when someone or some country tells them to back off with their egotistical, haughty, self important orders or pronouncements. But their “orders” and pronouncements have become irrelevant. We are again living in a multicolor world.
Comments from the World Community
In a recent Internet tally asking respondents who they favor, 75.8% were in favor of Russia and only 24.2% in favor of Georgia. Some American respondents actually came right out and thanked Russia for standing up to their government, referring to their government as “crackpots“ and “lunatics.”
One respondent said that South Ossetia and Abkhazia should become independent and the west lives under double standards. Another wrote, “the Abkhaz, Ossetian and Adjarian people will never agree to live under Georgian arrogant oppression.”

Yeah ... the whole world admires Czar Putin and his righteous ways ...

[Raz]

Re: Russia: Poland risks attack because of US missiles

Before jumping to the conclusion that the NeoCon fools who run the executive branch of our government would have us believe, please take the time to read this article by (Gasp!) Patrick Buchanan :eek:. Concerning the foreign policy of the United States, he has been correct at almost every turn for the past ten years.
Raz

http://www.worldnetdaily.com/index.php?pageId=72405

[Supercilious]

Re: Russia: Poland risks attack because of US missiles

Before jumping to the conclusion that the NeoCon fools who run the executive branch of our government would have us believe, please take the time to read this article by (Gasp!) Patrick Buchanan :eek:. Concerning the foreign policy of the United States, he has been correct at almost every turn for the past ten years.
Raz

http://www.worldnetdaily.com/index.php?pageId=72405

This is truly hilarious. Do you remember when the same Buchanan was playing on the rhythm of Putin's propaganda machine with Litvinenko's murder?

http://www.worldnetdaily.com/index.p...w&pageId=39050

IMHO Buchanan is quite clueless with many of his assertions and opinions.

What i want to see is the withdrawal of russian forces from Georgian teritory and the replacement of russian "peace keepers" with real peace keepers from UN or OSCE. But I guess that is not going to happen soon because the russians want actually to occupy all Georgia and replace Saakashvily with their own puppet.

Therefore they need to stall any withdrawal and continue with aggressive acts of patrolling in order to get a pretext for a complete occupation of Georgia.

Look here:

Russian armored vehicles push past Georgian police cars and move farther into Georgia in the Kaspi region, near Igoeti.



That doesn't look to my as a troop withdrawal...

[Shakespear]

Re: Russia: Poland risks attack because of US missiles

A good analysis of what we are dealing with

The trouble with Georgia

by Dmitry Orlov


http://energybulletin.net/node/46194

It aint as simple as many believe. :-)

Well in a way it is simple. Ossetians and the Abkhazias are not Georgians and do not want to be Georgian. Those willing to help them out with this happen to be everyones favorite bad guys Russia.

[Supercilious]

Re: Russia: Poland risks attack because of US missiles

A good analysis of what we are dealing with

The trouble with Georgia

by Dmitry Orlov


http://energybulletin.net/node/46194

It aint as simple as many believe. :-)

Well in a way it is simple. Ossetians and the Abkhazias are not Georgians and do not want to be Georgian. Those willing to help them out with this happen to be everyones favorite bad guys Russia.

Conveniently, Orlov forgets about the ethnic cleansing made by separatists in Abkhasia and Ossetia...
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ethnic_...ns_in_Abkhazia

A good analysis can be found at the Council of Foreign Relations:

http://www.cfr.org/publication/16932...e%2Ftranscript

[Raz]

Re: Russia: Poland risks attack because of US missiles

$#*,

I don't agree with everything Buchanan says, but you never commented on his MAIN thesis: the utter hypocrisy of the West. EVERYTHING Buchanan said about the Eastern expansion of NATO, our violation of Serbia and Iraq's territorial integrity, our insufferable arrogance around the world is absolutely true. I am far too conservative to be a Republican although I have tended to vote that way. "W" has cured me of that affliction. We were meant to be a republic - not an empire. It doesn't serve our national interests to involve ourselves all over the world in an attempt to make it "safe for democracy". If we really want to clean things up and deliver the greatest number of people from tyrrany, why don't we invade China? Bush has blown his entire presidency due to his thick-headed arrogance. Not finding the WMDs, he proclaims a crusade to spread "freedom". What a pile of horse$#*t! He must have never heard of T.E. Lawrence or he would not have gotten us involved in Mesopatamia.
However, I don't plan to participate in the "assisted suicide" of what's left of our republic by voting for Obama!

Raz

[Supercilious]

Re: Russia: Poland risks attack because of US missiles

$#*,

I don't agree with everything Buchanan says, but you never commented on his MAIN thesis: the utter hypocrisy of the West. EVERYTHING Buchanan said about the Eastern expansion of NATO, our violation of Serbia and Iraq's territorial integrity, our insufferable arrogance around the world is absolutely true. I am far too conservative to be a Republican although I have tended to vote that way. "W" has cured me of that affliction. We were meant to be a republic - not an empire. It doesn't serve our national interests to involve ourselves all over the world in an attempt to make it "safe for democracy". If we really want to clean things up and deliver the greatest number of people from tyrrany, why don't we invade China? Bush has blown his entire presidency due to his thick-headed arrogance. Not finding the WMDs, he proclaims a crusade to spread "freedom". What a pile of horse$#*t! He must have never heard of T.E. Lawrence or he would not have gotten us involved in Mesopatamia.

Raz we have no major argument here. The West (and not only US) suffers of utter hypocrisy. I could add to that incompetence, shortsightedness etc.

About Bush just don't get me started....

However about the expansion of NATO and EU, I disagree. I believe these are good things regardless the idiocy and incompetence proved in the Balkans.

The same with Iraq. I don't believe that getting rid of Saddam was a bad thing, but invading the whole Iraq and the occupation is a disgrace.

I for example always though that at the end of Gulf War the US troops instead of watching calmly how the Iraqi Republican Guards were slaughtering thousands of civilians (mainly shia but also kurds and suni marsh arabs) could have used a few planes and tanks to beat the beep out of those sadistic thugs in uniform. The Iraqi would have gotten rid of Saddam themselves.

Instead, by incompetence and hypocrisy the problem was allowed to linger into another war. Look at what Cheney was saying in 1994:

However, I don't plan to participate in the "assisted suicide" of what's left of our republic by voting for Obama!

Rz

Unfortunately there is no better option. McCain is at least as bad as Obama. IMHO the 2008 presidential election has been perfectly described by the episode 808 of South Park


But going back to the problem, regardless how incompetent and hypocrite are politicians in the West, that doesn't mean the Russian invasion in Georgia isn't an act of brutal aggression. Anybody who has some military background it is obvious that the Russians have prepared for this invasion for a few months.

[ASH]

Re: Russia: Poland risks attack because of US missiles

I am glad that Poland has approved US missiles. Together with US radar in the Czech Republic, it will connect these countries even more to West (although NATO members already).

I agree with that assessment. The commentators who draw connections to WWI and WWII history miss two key points, which are (1) that we live in an age of nuclear deterrence between Russia and the US, and (2) that the radar and interceptor missiles are strategic (nuclear-related) assets.

The first fact means that conventional fighting between Russia and the US is extremely unlikely -- instead, the Cold War saw proxy battles and games of international "chicken". This basic equation hasn't changed too much since the Cold War, except that Russia is temporarily in a weaker relative position, militarily. In the spirit of "chicken", Russia can invade Georgia (not a NATO member, and not tied to America's ability to defend itself) and be assured that it won't face full-on armed confrontation with America. To America, that which is to be gained in terms of prestige and moral integrity by defending Georgia with arms is not worth the risk which would be assumed by doing so. Likewise, however, Russia cannot attack a member of NATO without assuming unacceptible risk. Since the downsides of a nuclear confrontation are so terrible, both sides can be expected to avoid a confrontation that could escalate, so long as their vital interests are not at stake.

Further, the logic of deterrence requires that an attack upon the machinery of deterrence elicit a catastrophic response, because the attack demonstrates the intention to disarm the opponent. Although the radar and interceptors planned for Poland and the Czech Republic are not themselves nuclear arms -- nor technically vital to America's early warning system for attacks from Russia -- they do fall into the category of strategic hardware. I very much doubt that Russia is interested in testing how finely we're willing to split hairs. Those sorts of systems are not what one plays chicken with.

In my view, so long as the United States maintains its capacity for deterrence, the security guarantee for host countries is actually probably stronger than even for older members of NATO. The thing to worry about is what happens if those systems go away. For instance, America faces a huge budgetary dislocation in the near future (like 10 years, give or take). What if the missile defense system is built, but then abandoned by later governments? Also, the missile defense system could be traded away -- a resurgent Russia could one day compell us to dismantle the system. Our withdrawal from the ABM treaty happened because Russia couldn't do anything about it. If recent trends continue, America will have less to spend on its military and Russia will have more... one day we may have to take their concerns into greater consideration, and the anti-missile system is a major irritant to them!

In short, I think you are right to regard the radar and interceptors as a security guarantee in the short to medium term. However, you should realize that the value of that guarantee depends upon American power... and that may be on the wane in the long term.

[VIT]

Re: Russia: Poland risks attack because of US missiles

To ASH:
You made the good points, but I like to add some more:

- USA constantly increases the military spending - now 50% of the world
- USA got out from anti-missile agreement thus undermines the concept of non-use of nuclear power
- USA seems to be world-wide aggressive last years
- In future it could be a case somebody in White House will decide the risk of nuclear response is small.
- And all these US military concepts of pre-emptive strike and local use of nuclear weapons do not add optimism.

So the trend which US follows basically is for arm race. It does not look aligned with freedom and liberty ideals.

Why we have all these wars if every county has the defensive ministry, but no one offensive. Stanislav Lem.