Russia vs West

[metalman]

Re: Russia vs West

I wonder if Ukraine is dumb enough to intervene... if they do, then watch NATO really do nothing.

The russians might as well keep going...

putin's chess player. yeh, i know. he's not supposed to running things anymore... but he's running this war from his cell phone in beijing. how much you want to bet he's figuring that ukraine will try to block his ships? then russia can show off those supersonic torpedoes and put ukraine in its place.

[c1ue]

Re: Russia vs West

South Ossetia is payback for Kosovo.

Don't forget it was Georgia who sent their military into South Ossetia first; had Serbia sent troops into Kosovo, do you think the UN would have stood by?

Certainly the act is a clear case of Russian imperialism, but by not taking Russia's views into consideration with Kosovo, the UN pretty much dared Russia to show what lengths they would go to in order to back up their stated goal of being the kingpin of Eastern Europe.

The UN will do nothing, nor will Europe unless Russia stupidly does go into Georgia - and there is no reason to do so.

Saakashvili will lose all credibility for playing chicken with Russia and losing. He was gambling that Russia would be too afraid of the UN and Europe to call his bluff.

Between that and the cutoff on subsidized energy from Russia, he's not long for his post.

I'm not sure what Saakashvili thought he would accomplish even had his bluff worked - I guess the various pipelines from Azerbaijan to Turkey are completed. But even so, I doubt the prices for energy obtained this way will be as low as were being paid for the Russian natural gas.

[krakknisse]

Re: Russia vs West

The UN will do nothing, nor will Europe unless Russia stupidly does go into Georgia - and there is no reason to do so.
...
I'm not sure what Saakashvili thought he would accomplish even had his bluff worked - I guess the various pipelines from Azerbaijan to Turkey are completed. But even so, I doubt the prices for energy obtained this way will be as low as were being paid for the Russian natural gas.

That's the problem with the whole set up. I mean, even you, I and your average ITuliper could see that outcome - it is not clouded by the "fog of war". I'm not sure politicians regularly commit suicide on behalf of their own regime. It is too simple.

There's a subtext here that we're not seeing. I'm still not discounting an Iran angle. An actual invasion of Georgia by Russia seems off limits presently, but I don't discount bombings, blockades and such that life in Georgia will become impossibly difficult. The Russian goal may be a regime change.

On the other hand, I really have a hard time seeing Western nations intervening. Perhaps it is time for the US to get busy with all its expensive hardware.

On another note, the UK embassy in Georgia asks all UK citizens to leave (on the UK embassy in Georgia web site):

NOTE FROM THE AMBASSADOR

I wish to advise you that if you or your family have no urgent need to remain in Georgia you should leave as soon as possible. It is wise to do so while the borders remain open. There is no certainty the Embassy will be able to organize an assisted departure from the country if the situation deteriorates further and should scheduled air services cease and the borders close. Indeed a commonsense judgement is that this might well be impossible.

It is your responsibility to decide whether or not to act on this advice. But the longer you delay the more difficult the departure of yourself and your family may become.

Whatever you decide would you please quickly let the British Embassy know your decision. It is most important that our records of both those members of the community who have left and those who remain should be as accurate as possible.

You can either telephone the Duty Officer on 899 188 687 or 895 119693 or email contingency.britishembassy@caucasus.net


At the time of writing the border posts are open. The position on air travel is uncertain following the bombing near Tbilisi airport. We recommend that you contact the airport (www.airport.ge) or on 822 433 121, 822 433 141 or 822 310 421 who will be able to give you the latest information on flights. You should also continue watching BBC World and www.civil.ge

HM Ambassador

[rj1]

Re: Russia vs West

The UN will do nothing, nor will Europe unless Russia stupidly does go into Georgia - and there is no reason to do so.

The U.N. is powerless in this conflict. Like the United States, Russia has a veto on anything in front of the Security Council.

Russia has lost anyway. The Russian grip on Georgia was based on the presence of russian "peace keepers" in the "separatist regions" which are puppet pseudo states maintained by Russia inside Georgia.

Right. And ironically, Georgia's action means that Russia is probably going to annex said regions. Now I could see why "Russia would lose" if they annex South Ossetia, but Abkhazia is still in pretty good shape. (And before anyone says, the U.S. and EU would never allow that, they'd be the ones that would probably broker it.)

That's the problem with the whole set up. I mean, even you, I and your average ITuliper could see that outcome - it is not clouded by the "fog of war". I'm not sure politicians regularly commit suicide on behalf of their own regime. It is too simple.

Saakashvili is a f***ing idiot and he should either resign or be forced out of office by the Georgian public when this is all over. And the sad thing was this guy got taught at Harvard, which goes back to my hypothesis on Ivy League schools and their poor quality graduates in general. Every story I've read has stated from not only the media but also U.S.-friendly military insiders and observers, who hate Russia, said he started it. Here's one bit of a story from one military observer:

With the distraction of the Olympics, Georgia has apparently attempted to crack down on separatists in South Ossetia. Like all grand plans for war, the plan has not gone as expected. The swift Russian reaction by both air and ground implies surprise has not been achieved, if anything one might observe that Russian intelligence programs in Georgia is very healthy, and Russia is who achieved surprise.

It's a good site and I recommend it for anyone wanting further details. http://informationdissemination.blogspot.com/

You're a guy that wants to join NATO and very publicly declare your hate for Russia. You don't think they have intelligence agents that keep tabs on you and what you're talking about? Idiot. Him starting a fight with Russia makes as much sense as me starting a fight with Mike Tyson.

Most "grand scale" analyses I've read have stated that Georgia were disappointed that they were not going to be installed within NATO as they wanted and instead were given an "open-ended" commitment (that probably won't occur now) which they thought could help them get their regions back, and saw this as an "all or nothing" gamble and the only way to get them back. It's clearly not worked and it looks like the borders are about to get changed to Georgia's detriment.

[Rajiv]

Re: Russia vs West

Also just out

American Taken Prisoner in South Ossetia

Babelfish translation

In South Osetia the American mercenary is undertaken into the captivity

In South Osetia is seized into the captivity the group of the Georgian demolishers, among whom is located the citizen of the USA, [afroamerikanets]. About this reports “ossetic radio”.

Group is delayed in the region of the settlement charges, which is located on “the road of life” - To [zarskoy] road.

It is assumed that the citizen of the USA - one of the instructors of NATO. At the given moment it is crossed into Vladikavkaz for explaining all circumstances of its presence in the territory of republic South Osetia.

As notes “[Rosbalt]”, previously [yuzhnoosetinskiy] plenipotentiary in RF Dmitriy [Medoev] already reported that among the corpses in Tskhinvali were discovered several bodies of dark-skinned people, which warred on the side of Georgia.

[EJ]

Re: Russia vs West

War is a blunt instrument, a sledgehammer. Good for breaking rocks, not for fixing a broken watch. Georgia, like Iraq, is a broken watch.

A few favorite war quotations on a Sunday evening.

You can no more win a war than you can win an earthquake.
Jeannette Rankin (1880 - 1973)

War is a series of catastrophes that results in a victory.
Georges Clemenceau (1841 - 1929)

You can't say that civilization don't advance, however, for in every war they kill you in a new way.
Will Rogers (1879 - 1935), New York Times, Dec. 23, 1929

I have given two cousins to war and I stand ready to sacrifice my wife's brother.
Artemus Ward (1834 - 1867)

Wars teach us not to love our enemies, but to hate our allies.
W. L. George

Now I know what a statesman is; he's a dead politician. We need more statesmen.
Bob Edwards

I can picture in my mind a world without war, a world without hate. And I can picture us attacking that world, because they'd never expect it.
Jack Handey (1949 - ), Deep Thoughts

[Spartacus]

Re: Russia vs West

Spin is all, Eric ... Spin is all

Terry Pratchett can make "come home with your shield or on it" sound like the nadir or pathetic bullshit silliness

And Frank Miller can make it sound like the most heroic thing in the world

War is a blunt instrument, a sledgehammer. Good for breaking rocks, not for fixing a broken watch. Georgia, like Iraq, is a broken watch.

A few favorite war quotations on a Sunday evening.

You can no more win a war than you can win an earthquake.
Jeannette Rankin (1880 - 1973)

War is a series of catastrophes that results in a victory.
Georges Clemenceau (1841 - 1929)

You can't say that civilization don't advance, however, for in every war they kill you in a new way.
Will Rogers (1879 - 1935), New York Times, Dec. 23, 1929

I have given two cousins to war and I stand ready to sacrifice my wife's brother.
Artemus Ward (1834 - 1867)

Wars teach us not to love our enemies, but to hate our allies.
W. L. George

Now I know what a statesman is; he's a dead politician. We need more statesmen.
Bob Edwards

I can picture in my mind a world without war, a world without hate. And I can picture us attacking that world, because they'd never expect it.
Jack Handey (1949 - ), Deep Thoughts

[Judas]

Re: Russia vs West

The UN will do nothing, nor will Europe unless Russia stupidly does go into Georgia - and there is no reason to do so.

Russia goes into Georgia.

http://www.nytimes.com/2008/08/11/wo...ld&oref=slogin

TBILISI, Georgia — Russia expanded its attacks on Georgia on Sunday, moving tanks and troops through the separatist enclave of South Ossetia and advancing toward the city of Gori in central Georgia, in its first direct assault on a Georgian city with ground forces after three days of heavy fighting, Georgian officials said.


The maneuver — along with aerial bombing of the Georgian capital, Tbilisi — suggested that Russia’s aims in the conflict had gone beyond securing the pro-Russian enclaves of South Ossetia and Abkhazia to weakening the armed forces of Georgia, a former Soviet republic and an ally of the United States whose Western leanings have long irritated the Kremlin.

[phirang]

Re: Russia vs West

70% of oil production is from IOC's.

70% of reserves are nationalized.

The BTC is about the becoming property of Gazprom.

Once georgia is taken out, there will be a physical barrier from the artic through persia between the resources of central asia to the west.

germany is going to need a lot more solar panels... lol.

[VIT]

Re: Russia vs West

I see some bias toward the oil in these talks. It's not about oil for Russia. It might be at some extent for US. Think about this:

- US supported Georgia with military eqpm, wanted them in NATO and helped Sakhashvili become the president
- Osetia has never been part of the Georgia, only on the paper. It was included to Georgia republic but still under Soviet rule. When USSR collapsed Osetia anounced independence which has been confirmed on later referendum.
- This war was needed to Sakhashivly to hold the power as president since it was unrest during the election etc
- Surely Russia does not want Georgia to be in NATO but it does not mean Russia wants to capture Georgia
- In fact Abkhazia and Osetia are independent from Georgia for 15 years
- Russian point of this war is to resolve the frozen conflict, protect her citizens and prevent Georgia joining NATO and get stability in this region by any means

Sakhasvily started this hot war with US support.

[phirang]

Re: Russia vs West

I see some bias toward the oil in these talks. It's not about oil for Russia. It might be at some extent for US. Think about this:

- US supported Georgia with military eqpm, wanted them in NATO and helped Sakhashvili become the president
- Osetia has never been part of the Georgia, only on the paper. It was included to Georgia republic but still under Soviet rule. When USSR collapsed Osetia anounced independence which has been confirmed on later referendum.
- This war was needed to Sakhashivly to hold the power as president since it was unrest during the election etc
- Surely Russia does not want Georgia to be in NATO but it does not mean Russia wants to capture Georgia
- In fact Abkhazia and Osetia are independent from Georgia for 15 years
- Russian point of this war is to resolve the frozen conflict, protect her citizens and prevent Georgia joining NATO and get stability in this region by any means

Sakhasvily started this hot war with US support.

Georgia is worthless aside from the BTC and its location vis a vis gas/oil.

[Supercilious]

Re: Russia vs West

Sakhasvily started this hot war with US support.

I have no doubt about that. But the question remains: has Russia the right and force to enforce it's imperial influence in Caucasus?

If Russia says that South Ossetia should be allowed to secede from Georgia, then they should also allow Chechenya ( another pipeline area) to secede form Russian Federation.

America's problem is not that it cannot make life very difficult for Russia overnight (imagine strong undercover support for Chechnya, Daghestan, Ingushetya etc... you kow .... Bin laden becoming again out good boy and freedom fighter)... The problem is that if Americans put too much pressure on Russia .... the whole neo-Czarist empire may collapse... and that's not good for the West.

Anyway, IMHO Putin has already make a big mistake by using excessive force against Georgia and putting Russian troops in direct combat with Georgian troops. If they continue to use excessive military force they will find themselves in a very lonely corner.

[c1ue]

Re: Russia vs West

Russia goes into Georgia.

http://www.nytimes.com/2008/08/11/wo...ld&oref=slogin

TBILISI, Georgia — Russia expanded its attacks on Georgia on Sunday, moving tanks and troops through the separatist enclave of South Ossetia and advancing toward the city of Gori in central Georgia, in its first direct assault on a Georgian city with ground forces after three days of heavy fighting, Georgian officials said.

I'm not an expert on Georgia/South Ossetia, but I do believe Gori is less than 1 hours drive from the South Ossetian 'capital'.

[Judas]

Re: Russia vs West

I'm not an expert on Georgia/South Ossetia, but I do believe Gori is less than 1 hours drive from the South Ossetian 'capital'.

I'm pretty sure that if Canada attacked Buffalo it might be considered serious, regardless of drive time.

[VIT]

Re: Russia vs West

I have no doubt about that. But the question remains: has Russia the right and force to enforce it's imperial influence in Caucasus?

If Russia says that South Ossetia should be allowed to secede from Georgia, then they should also allow Chechenya ( another pipeline area) to secede form Russian Federation.

America's problem is not that it cannot make life very difficult for Russia overnight (imagine strong undercover support for Chechnya, Daghestan, Ingushetya etc... you kow .... Bin laden becoming again out good boy and freedom fighter)... The problem is that if Americans put too much pressure on Russia .... the whole neo-Czarist empire may collapse... and that's not good for the West.

Anyway, IMHO Putin has already make a big mistake by using excessive force against Georgia and putting Russian troops in direct combat with Georgian troops. If they continue to use excessive military force they will find themselves in a very lonely corner.

I am not sure I understand the term "excessive force". To clear the subject imagine you meet bad boy with the knife pointing on you. You have knife and gun, what would you use ? Do you think when US bombed Yugoslavia for 3 months it was not excessive power. This is a war so nothing could be excessive, unfortunately. I do not think Russia will spread the war over all Georgia since this will cause a lot of georgian civilians casualties.

It is not just about imperial policy.

BTW, Georgia started with shelling the capital of Osetia by heavy artillery. Osetia is not even close to Georgia military power.