Russia vs West

[krakknisse]

Re: Russia vs West

Guys - this South Ossetian war is quite serious. Who cares about the Balkans - now we're talking about a vital geostrategic energy region here. There's the BTC pipeline nearby. And if Georgia comes under Russian control (think coup, not necessarily outright invasion), there's only one country between Russia and Iran (Armenia/Azerbaijan).

Putting on my tinfoil hat - why would a small country with 18,000 soldiers or thereabouts attack (or the closes thing to it) a relative superpower with 1.5 million soldiers? This would just provide EXCELLENT cover, neutralizing Russia substantially, in case there is an attack on Iran. No sources, just gut feeling. Or else Georgia is placing a very, very high stakes bet on Western intervention.

And remember - the EU is very much dependent on Russian natural gas. One flick of the switch, and there's black outs and hungry EU citizens pretty soon (or at least paying out of the nose).

I'm guessing that everybody is frantically trying to reduce hostilities - the possibility of escalation must frighten nearly everyone. If Georgia is in the process of being crushed, NATO powers really have to think hard about intervening. F-22s screaming down? Not a pretty sight.

Guys - THIS IS NOT A DRILL. If things do not quiet down pretty soon, then buckle up. Read up on the prelude to WW2. Doesn't anyone remember the Finnish Winter War? As for investments, what idiot would put any money in state bonds in such a warlike atmosphere.

For some live streaming English-language TV coverage on the Russian side, head over to Russia Today. It's as biased as the Western coverage. I don't f*ing trust anyone any more.

[Guest]

Re: Russia vs West

I think it's a plot by the Norwegians to gain a monopoly on gas and oil sold in Europe. And next they're going to stage some sort of "false flag" operation into Denmark, and then Holland. They are gonna just roll in there and ruthlessly annex those guys into their model socialized petroleum funded northern empire. After that, it's France, and then Portugal and Spain. The word is, they've got "Club Med Envy". :cool: Before we know it they'll take over the whole of Europe, and force everyone to live on a diet of salted herring in order to assimilate them into a new "pan-Norwegian" culture. :eek:

[Supercilious]

Re: Russia vs West

Georgia Lost

WRAPUP 11-Georgia calls for ceasefire in South Ossetia

Not sure about that Rajiv. Probably you are not familiar with the previous russian "peace keeping" missions...

If Georgia had lost we would see the idiotic Czar Putin in Tskhinvali for a photo op explaining to the world what the Georgian criminals did on Georgian territory. This has not happened yet... and from the Roki tunnel (the entry point of Russian troops into Ossetia) to Tskhinvali there are about 30-40 km.

Russia has lost anyway. The Russian grip on Georgia was based on the presence of russian "peace keepers" in the "separatist regions" which are puppet pseudo states maintained by Russia inside Georgia.

Putin's claim that the Russian invasion is a legal operation for protecting russian citizens is ludicrous. What if the mexican president would send troops into California and Texas under the excuse of protecting the mexican citizens on the american territory?

OK, in California they may get away with it, because the hippies will resist with drum circles and peace marches and protests ... but in Texas ...

IMHO things are not going well for Russians. The fact that they have resorted to bombing Georgia with strategic bombers and ballistic missiles denotes frustration and military incompetence:

http://www.cnn.com/2008/WORLD/europe.../georgia.reax/

Russia's use of strategic bombers and ballistic missiles against Georgia's civilians outside of the South Ossetian conflict is "far disproportionate" to Georgia's alleged attack on Russian peacekeepers, a senior U.S. official said Saturday.

Plus there are other interesting signs such as:
http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/2008...russia.georgia

'The first thing needed is to ... make the Georgians return to their positions and re-establish the status quo we had before,' Russia's Nato ambassador, Dmitry Rogozin, said in Brussels. He said that there could be 'no consultations' until that precondition had been met.

Are the russians going to fire at NATO warships in order to blockade Georgia ?
http://www.monstersandcritics.com/ne...hers_available

Russia was according to unconfirmed diplomatic reports, threatening a blockade of Georgia's coast by the Russian Black Sea Fleet, and expanded air bombardment, if Georgia does not evacuate its forces from South Ossetia.
Warships operated by Turkey, a NATO member, reportedly were standing offshore of the Georgian port Batumi.

Plus, for those of you who traveled in Russia in recent years and know how to properly read a Russian paper in the Putin era, there is another interesting piece:
http://www.kommersant.com/p-13066/r_...nvali_Defense/

Even if Russia destroys all Georgian military forces in Ossetia, Putin has already lost. By having Russian forces in direct combat with Georgian forces he can't claim anymore that the Russian army can be"neutral peace keepers" and as a result of this conflict he will have to withdraw all Russian soldiers from the internationally recognized borders of Georgia. He will have as much unfluence on Georgia as Serbians currently have on Bosnia.;)

[phirang]

Re: Russia vs West

No one cares about the war in Georgia. There was slaughter in Europe's backyard for years, and no one gave a damn(jugoslavia). The Germans and French care even less about Georgia.

The russians will get what they want, or else the BTC is bye-bye.

[GRG55]

Re: Russia vs West

I think it's a plot by the Norwegians to gain a monopoly on gas and oil sold in Europe. And next they're going to stage some sort of "false flag" operation into Denmark, and then Holland. They are gonna just roll in there and ruthlessly annex those guys into their model socialized petroleum funded northern empire. After that, it's France, and then Portugal and Spain. The word is, they've got "Club Med Envy". :cool: Before we know it they'll take over the whole of Europe, and force everyone to live on a diet of salted herring in order to assimilate them into a new "pan-Norwegian" culture. :eek:

It's worse than salted herring Luke

Can you imagine anyone in Tuscany doing something like this? To food? :eek:

...On the northernmost coast of Norway, cod has been hung on poles and dried in the wind without salt for more than a thousand years. For more than a millennium this product has been sold to other European countries in order to bring home such rare commodities as wine, wheat and honey. They called this fish "stockfish" - or stoccafisso or estocafix or however they may have written it. A French cookbook manuscript from 1393 explains how boiled stofix should be eaten with mustard or dipped in butter. However, the fish must first be pounded with a wooden hammer and then soaked in water for many hours. Adding wood ash lye to the water makes the fish particularly soft and flavourful. The result of this process is the celebrated lye fish (lutefisk), today a Norwegian and Swedish speciality, and as in certain areas of the USA, closely identified with Norwegian and Swedish immigrants...
More...

[Supercilious]

Re: Russia vs West

No one cares about the war in Georgia. There was slaughter in Europe's backyard for years, and no one gave a damn(jugoslavia). The Germans and French care even less about Georgia.

Yes, but there was no strategic pipeline going through Bosnia or Kosovo...

Instead of Georgia-Ossetia war or Russia-Georgia conflict they should call it the Pipeline War...;)

[Guest]

Re: Russia vs West

It's worse than salted herring Luke

They'd have to shoot me dead and then run a truck over me to make sure the job was complete, before I'd consent to eat any of that vile crap. No way in hades that a single bite of that fishy crap makes it's way into my stomach, even with the Imperial Norwegian Military Police standing there, next to a (picturesque and fragrantly smelling) Tuscan hearth, threatening me with all the unspeakable torments that such Norwegians can doubtless dream up because they are all so nasty and imperialistic by nature. I'd start a revolt. Nothing could rouse the peaceful (albeit slightly somnolent), and law abiding Tuscans to bloodthirsty armed revolt more quickly than for them to attempt this type of brutal Gastronomic Imperialism. BTW, those Tuscan farmers all pack shotguns for hunting boar, and when it comes to food, if backed into a corner they can go berserk. Yecchh! Get away! Ma' che razza di barbariani che sono quei Norvegesi!! So what if they have an exemplary civil service and all that administrative efficiency! We won't eat their grub, period!

_____________

Eh, sorry! This is a quite serious thread - I guess I got a little erm, uh, "off topic here" with all of this urgent news about the planned Norwegian imperialistic conquest of Europe?

Sorry fellas. The degree of silliness cannot be excused. Apologies to Krakke also, who's a good pal. [ bad Lukester. bad bad bad. Go stand in the corner. ]

[krakknisse]

Re: Russia vs West

Lukester has again made some very astute observations (but made a complete mess of them ). 40% of EU gas imports originate from Russia (30% Algeria, 25% Norway) (according to this source from 2005). The EU is critically dependent on imported fossil fuels (WP overview). There is a reason EU is pushing renewable power (WP source):


So with EU-Russia relations in a tight spot, Norwegian imports suddenly become important. Not enough to enable us to force lutefisk down the throats of Europeans, but still. But then again - remember the arctic thread. Since that post, Russia has moved several of its ships to Svalbard (anti-submarine ship Severomorsk, rocket ship Marshall Ustinov) (1, 2) and asked for (and had denied) for access to Svalbard's air space. Similar things happened in the 1970s, but then the situation was more balanced.

And guys - don't miss the big picture here. Oxford University International Politics 101 exam of 2030. "On this test, please elaborate on the proximate causes of international tension and wars in the early 21st century". Answer: can you spell E-N-E-R-G-Y ?

EJ's Alt-A bubble may be coming sooner rather than later. There's going to be buzz in Brussels and a real scramble for an even harder push into renewables.

[krakknisse]

Re: Russia vs West

BTW, for the adventorous. The Georgian lari (GEL) will probably plummet. USD/GEL has declined 13% since March. Can't seem to find older quotes.

EUR/GEL:

Now, something similar happened to the Kuwaiti Dinar in Gulf War I. Autumn of 1991 you could load up on Kuwaiti Dinar for a pittance, then collect a very healthy profit at the conclusion of the war.

So: catch a falling knife - load up on GEL in a while, then wait for the US intervention... Any takers? Comments?

[touchring]

Re: Russia vs West

The pipe line doesn't flow through South Ossetia and Georgia itself doesn't have oil.

The kuwait investment is a no brainer. There's no way the US will let Iraq take Kuwait.

BTW, for the adventorous. The Georgian lari (GEL) will probably plummet. USD/GEL has declined 13% since March. Can't seem to find older quotes.

EUR/GEL:

Now, something similar happened to the Kuwaiti Dinar in Gulf War I. Autumn of 1991 you could load up on Kuwaiti Dinar for a pittance, then collect a very healthy profit at the conclusion of the war.

So: catch a falling knife - load up on GEL in a while, then wait for the US intervention... Any takers? Comments?

[tombat1913]

Re: Russia vs West

Putting on my tinfoil hat - why would a small country with 18,000 soldiers or thereabouts attack (or the closes thing to it) a relative superpower with 1.5 million soldiers? This would just provide EXCELLENT cover, neutralizing Russia substantially, in case there is an attack on Iran. No sources, just gut feeling. Or else Georgia is placing a very, very high stakes bet on Western intervention.

In Related News, the U.S. is set to begin embargo on Iran, an act of war I might add.

http://europebusines.blogspot.com/20...-for-iran.html

[touchring]

Re: Russia vs West

In Related News, the U.S. is set to begin embargo on Iran, an act of war I might add.

http://europebusines.blogspot.com/20...-for-iran.html

Now that Russia can bomb Georgian capital to protect its "citizens" in South Ossetia, so Israel can bomb Iranian nuke bases to protect itself?

I see Russia's act legitimizing the new Gulf war. :eek:

[phirang]

Re: Russia vs West

Yes, but there was no strategic pipeline going through Bosnia or Kosovo...

Instead of Georgia-Ossetia war or Russia-Georgia conflict they should call it the Pipeline War...;)

If I were Russia, I'd just roll my tanks into Tblisi and install a tractable government a la Chechnya...

What possible downside is there for Russia to protract this conflict to the bitter end? No one will do anything, and the Turks themselves are conflicted, since many North Caucasians live in Turkey and are anti-Georgian. Armenia and Iran don't care, either.

[metalman]

Re: Russia vs West

If I were Russia, I'd just roll my tanks into Tblisi and install a tractable government a la Chechnya...

What possible downside is there for Russia to protract this conflict to the bitter end? No one will do anything, and the Turks themselves are conflicted, since many North Caucasians live in Turkey and are anti-Georgian. Armenia and Iran don't care, either.

they're at war now... Russia seizes South Ossetia as wider conflict feared. if i were eurpean i'd be worried about taking the 'right' side. after all, this is where their oil and gas comes from.

[phirang]

Re: Russia vs West

they're at war now... Russia seizes South Ossetia as wider conflict feared. if i were eurpean i'd be worried about taking the 'right' side. after all, this is where their oil and gas comes from.

I wonder if Ukraine is dumb enough to intervene... if they do, then watch NATO really do nothing.

The russians might as well keep going...