gold equity investors: tossed in the towel yet?

[grapejelly]

We seem to be approaching an absolute bottom in sentiment especially in the junior miners. They have been mauled for two years and lately they have absolutely sunk to new lows.

A major bottom here...meaning the start of the next bull leg...but have you thrown in the towel? Are you fed up yet?

[phirang]

Re: gold equity investors: tossed in the towel yet?

We seem to be approaching an absolute bottom in sentiment especially in the junior miners. They have been mauled for two years and lately they have absolutely sunk to new lows.

A major bottom here...meaning the start of the next bull leg...but have you thrown in the towel? Are you fed up yet?

I'll throw in the towel on the next fed cut.

[Chris]

Re: gold equity investors: tossed in the towel yet?

We seem to be approaching an absolute bottom in sentiment especially in the junior miners. They have been mauled for two years and lately they have absolutely sunk to new lows.

A major bottom here...meaning the start of the next bull leg...but have you thrown in the towel? Are you fed up yet?

yup, rode them all the way down....what a ride ;)

So if there's a bullish leg up does that mean i'll be able to break even? (before inflation) :eek:

[j4f2h0]

Re: gold equity investors: tossed in the towel yet?

got into GDX at $48 rode in all the way, however GSPG has proven to be the anomaly. I am young and foolish but the old people tell me that the gold bull likes to buck everyone off b4 its biggest uplegs leaving the faint of heart on the sidelines waiting for another entry point that never appears! if u liked the stocks b4 u should love them now, fundamentals have only gotten better!

[renewable]

Re: gold equity investors: tossed in the towel yet?

Gains in physical have offset losses in juniors, I'm holding my shares until they get taken over, go bust or pay a dividend ()

[metalman]

Re: gold equity investors: tossed in the towel yet?

We seem to be approaching an absolute bottom in sentiment especially in the junior miners. They have been mauled for two years and lately they have absolutely sunk to new lows.

A major bottom here...meaning the start of the next bull leg...but have you thrown in the towel? Are you fed up yet?

you guys and your gold mining stocks. itulip has told ya to stay away forever. not just bad managements but energy price inflation makes mining uneconomical. that's why your stocks are in the toilet. if the dollar gets stronger energy gets cheaper but so do metals. dollar gets weaker metals go up but so does energy. it's a lose/lose. buy the stuff, he said for the 100th time.

[The Outback Oracle]

Re: gold equity investors: tossed in the towel yet?

Hell i hate being told over and over again that i'm wrong...when i am!

[metalman]

Re: gold equity investors: tossed in the towel yet?

Hell i hate being told over and over again that i'm wrong...when i am!

don't feel bad. if i'm such a smarty guy how come i didn't sell gold at $1000 when itulip noted the small trade in the big trade in march?

[The Outback Oracle]

Re: gold equity investors: tossed in the towel yet?

Thanks Metal. re the gold equituies they were a bit of a fun thing for me and i turned about $40,000 into $220,000 over about 18 months. So I'm actually still well ahead but it would be good if i'd taken a bit of notice of Fred and Eric about 9 months ago!!!
I'm experiencing something of a bit of inertia in responding to the unfolding events!!!!

[Guest]

Re: gold equity investors: tossed in the towel yet?

I got no "towel to throw in" on the equities. I am "towel-less" in precious metals miners. Naked of shares! :eek: No majors, no outrageously promising mid-cap producers, no stellar meteors-in-waiting among the juniors. One brush with a "carefully constructed portfolio of mining stocks" three or four years ago was enough for me. Actually I owned some decent ones, all bought way early:

Goldcorp
Agnico Eagle
Yamana
Silver Wheaton
Fronteer Development (Yukon and NWT gold and uranium - awesome stock)
Seabridge Gold

Then I figured out that the risk and volatility of dinking around with a gold stock portfolio meant if one was a rational investor one was limiting one's position sizes carefully. You could get a better net return, if you have real conviction in a long term precious metals bull market, by going into some serious positions in the metals without touching a single stock. Of course you could "dabble" with the stocks, but it was understood that was with your playing around money.

Today I personally don't feel like I can spare any playing around money.

I read all the breathless threads comparing stock portfolios in the precious metals and feel like these people are living on a different planet. After you've adopted bullion as your investment vehicle with a substantive committed position you tend to start looking at the stock dabblers with some real doubts as to their sound long term judgement.

Picture 2012 - 2014 and Peak Cheap Oil is suddenly going mainstream - there's panic in the markets worldwide as countries increasingly begin to asphyxiate on ever tighter annual energy budgets. Now picture the glassy eyed junior stock investor, circling like a moth before an acetylene torch flame, eyeing his or her future untold riches ... :rolleyes:

I'm thinking people playing that game in 2012 must be some of the world's prize chump investors at least in the precious metals. You buy metals for insurance, and upside with maximum safety. Want to get entranced with building a "glittering portfolio of Gold miner shares"? Go smoke some crack and get over it - it will do you less harm in the long run.

[The Outback Oracle]

Re: gold equity investors: tossed in the towel yet?

That's a bit harsh!

[metalman]

Re: gold equity investors: tossed in the towel yet?

That's a bit harsh!

don't mind luke. he's told us he runs on ire.

[Guest]

Re: gold equity investors: tossed in the towel yet?

That's a bit harsh!

What!? I thought you Aussie's ate gravel for breakfast and were a bunch of tough bastards? Besides, if you turned $40K into $220K you have the luck of the devil (and then some, that's 550%+ appreciation ferpetessakes!) and you don't need anyone treading carefully around you, do you mate? Plus I'm a Yank, who are commonly known around your parts to be tenderfooted pissants and whingers gone all soft, just like the Pommies, right? ;)

[grapejelly]

Re: gold equity investors: tossed in the towel yet?

I am confident of great things with the miners. These comments make me feel even better. Sentiment is at or near a bottom, methinks.

True dat, that miners *as a group* don't outperform bullion during the Great Runups like we had in the 1970s...BUT...you can pick a portfolio of miners that will greatly outperform the bullion.

I don't think it's the energy required for mining and associated costs that has been responsible for the toilette we find ourselves in.

I think it's the falling appetite for risk amongst investors and hedge funds.

But I expect this to turn around for miners that have gold in the ground, and enough cash to handle things for a year or two and good management. I think they are a freakin' bargain right now. I am only sorry I didn't wait before loading up.

[Guest]

Re: gold equity investors: tossed in the towel yet?

Grape - I believe like you in a precious metals bull market here going forward that's (still) one for the ages. I know you see it as primarily driven by monetary disorder. I see that, and I see also it's driven by something with even more (nasty) staying power - Peak Cheap Oil. Anyone who does not understand the inflationary power of this event, and we are right smack on the cusp of it, does not have their thinking cap on. This is what gives the inflationary wave a permanence that moves well out beyond USD disarray and the need for a new world monetary system. BTW, as a matter of interest, I notice in EJ's interview with Dr. Keen that Keen mentioned the highly inflationary impact of peaking availability of certain commodities as a *significant wild card* - and expressly acknowledge oil's *notable* power to drive inflation. So this validates that some fairly sober minded economists take what I point out as a matter of course.

There is absolutely nothing controversial or equivocal about it - but a year ago around here it was regarded as a highly speculative idea (peak oil directly and inevitably produces inflation all on it's own). I recall at that time you disagreed flatly that oil could produce inflation (you said inflation was "solely for the banks to issue"), but Dr. Keen is entirely on board with this idea today. In the context of all this, I'm positioned to retire from any employment on a paltry 200% upmove in the price of Silver, and with lesser allocation to a 100% upmove in the price of Gold. If we have a deflationary collapse, my goose is cooked of course, to some extent. But here's the point - I have noted that the inflationary component in Peak Cheap Oil is a geological event - NOT a financial markets or economic event. Geological events are extremely rare, if not unheard of in history, and when you are sitting on the cusp of one you have a reliability of trend unlike any reliability of trend ever captured in any equity market in history.

Nobody in their right mind is predicting that whiz-bang futuristic widget technology is going to step into the coming 20 year transition and relieve the inflationary pressure that will arrive with $300 oil.

In the context of this, I have absolutely no need of a 500% or a 1000% upside from a glittering portfolio of junior mining stocks, because if I were in these vehicles, my position size would be carefully limited, and my net total return would be a good bit less than that. I did this once for a return much like Outback's, with Uranium stocks three years ago. Now I don't need it. I need a measly 200% upside (actually only really a 100% upside) from dirt-cheap strategic resource silver - and I'm staring straight down the gun-barrel of Peak Cheap Oil, with forecasts from some very sober people of $300 oil ten years or less down the road. I need no stocks whatsoever to get where I want to go. I also happen to believe that the stock markets worldwide will be in a state of recurring and periodic "cardiac arrest fibrillation" due to peak cheap oil, which won't exactly improve the performance of a juniors portfolio.

To each his own.