Did we get it wrong?

[Mega]

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/money/mai.../ccview104.xml

Gold/Oil...just a "Bubble"................funny that they didn't say anything about the Tec bubble or the Housing bubble?

Anyway, you should head into $ !
Mike

[gasull]

Re: Looks like we got it wrong

Do you suggest any ETFs for short-term US debt?

[j4f2h0]

Re: Looks like we got it wrong

i have some ocean front property in colorado i wanna sell u if believe this BS

[gasull]

Re: Looks like we got it wrong

i have some ocean front property in colorado i wanna sell u if believe this BS

End of commodities bubble (at least momentarily). That doesn't mean that the housing bubble is back.

[j4f2h0]

Re: Looks like we got it wrong

it does seem odd that EJ and so many intellectuals have tried to explain to us normal people what a "bubble" is and NO ONE seems to listen or have seen those articles?? People continue to throw the word around like it applies to every asset class that show appreciation! Come on people really?

[ASH]

Re: Looks like we got it wrong

it does seem odd that EJ and so many intellectuals have tried to explain to us normal people what a "bubble" is and NO ONE seems to listen or have seen those articles?? People continue to throw the word around like it applies to every asset class that show appreciation! Come on people really?

That's because there are two uses of "bubble": technical, and pejorative. EJ has been writing about bubbles in the technical sense. The typical financial writer uses "bubble" to describe any appreciation in an asset class that they don't understand, failed to predict, and hence of which they disapprove. ;)

[Mega]

Re: Looks like we got it wrong

That's the trouble with EJ, he writes like a scence paper!.....Too dry, he needs to spice it up a bit.....add a Car chase that sort of thing.
Mike

[Mega]

Re: Looks like we got it wrong

Getting back to this, withh ALL the $ being printed & WILL NEED to be Printed i am expected to believe that Gold is going to "Crash & Burn" as the $ RECOVERS!!!!!!!!

Mike

[gasull]

Re: Looks like we got it wrong

I'm a newbie investor, so for me it's not so easy to get the irony in the posts. I guess now that you are making fun of the article.

Isn't it possible that the slowdown in demand makes the commodities go down, at least for a while?

User Jim Nickerson seems to take you seriously too.

[Judas]

Re: Looks like we got it wrong

This is all easily explained by a feline which has recently acquired room temperature and is accelerating in a 180 degree vector to previous vertical travel after an impact with a horizontal surface which is both rigid and running perpendicular to the gravitic plane of the celestial body we use as a reference.

SCIENCE!

[Judas]

Re: Looks like we got it wrong

I'm a newbie investor, so for me it's not so easy to get the irony in the posts. I guess now that you are making fun of the article.

Isn't it possible that the slowdown in demand makes the commodities go down, at least for a while?

Yes, there can be short term corrections to overbought conditions. That does not, however, change the underlying fundamentals behind the major trend/move, and I am not a trader/market timer.

If you're a newbie, look into the term "suckers rally". It will be most enlightening.

[ASH]

Re: Looks like we got it wrong

I'm a newbie investor, so for me it's not so easy to get the irony in the posts. I guess now that you are making fun of the article.

Isn't it possible that the slowdown in demand makes the commodities go down, at least for a while?

User Jim Nickerson seems to take you seriously too.

Seriously, then, a couple of points:

1. For the majority of the article, Mr. Evans-Pritchard was reporting on the opinion of Deutsche Bank (which refers to the commodity price rises as a bubble). His own opinion appears at the end of the article:

"For commodity perma-bulls, the slowdown hardly matters. This is a supply story. Oil companies have been unable to raise output for four years. As the oil crunch spills over into food, 30pc of the US corn harvest is being switched to biofuels.

Some 26pc of the copper that ever existed in the Earth's crust has been lost, according to a Princeton study. We are exhausting our patrimony of resources.

I have much sympathy for this view. Asia's industrial revolutions are obviously a game-changer. The term "commodity super-cycle" does not do it justice. We are living through a step-change into an era of permanent shortage.

Right now, a gently rising supply of commodities is colliding head on with a manufacturing recession and a global building bust of majestic proportions. Bonds beckon."

He is essentially saying that commodities are not a bubble, but a very large-scale and enduring trend. However, he warns that the global slowdown will likely impact the price levels of commodities used in manufacturing and construction in the short term. I am a regular reader of Evans-Prichard and respect his analysis (although he is in the deflation camp); I personally find no fault with his take on commodities as a class. Precious metals, however, may be a special case given their role as an alternative form of money, assuming that inflation is on the menu.

2. I was semi serious about the usage of the word "bubble". A lot of people toss it about informally to mean any sudden -- and temporary -- rise in the price level of a given asset. It gets used imprecisely by a lot of professional financial writers when they want to claim that asset price appreciation in some area is unfounded. It is much like name-calling.

[gasull]

Re: Looks like we got it wrong

He is essentially saying that commodities are not a bubble, but a very large-scale and enduring trend. However, he warns that the global slowdown will likely impact the price levels of commodities used in manufacturing and construction in the short term. [...] Precious metals, however, may be a special case given their role as an alternative form of money, assuming that inflation is on the menu.

Then I was getting it right. There is going to be a correction and therefore I was unsure about selling my gold and silver now and then buying again at the end of the short-term correction. What I needed was the last part of your explanation: "Precious metals, however, may be a special case given their role as an alternative form of money, assuming that inflation is on the menu".

I won't sell.

Thanks.

[tombat1913]

Re: Looks like we got it wrong

That's the trouble with EJ, he writes like a scence paper!.....Too dry, he needs to spice it up a bit.....add a Car chase that sort of thing.
Mike

Yeah EJ keeps using up server space with all these well thought out, well reserched theories backed up by facts and credible oppinion. Blah.

What we really need is more random speculation backed up by random nothing. You know, like Cramer. Come to think of it, why am I paying for this subscription when I can just watch MSNBC.

Thanks Mega, you've opened my eyes!

[Supercilious]

Re: Looks like we got it wrong

Yeah EJ keeps using up server space with all these well thought out, well reserched theories backed up by facts and credible oppinion. Blah.

What we really need is more random speculation backed up by random nothing. You know, like Cramer. Come to think of it, why am I paying for this subscription when I can just watch MSNBC.

Thanks Mega, you've opened my eyes!

Yeah Mega, please stop all this nonsense about an Oil Bubble, the price of oil will keep increasing ... Read more about the Cheap Peak Oil theory, it's a well researched theory back up by facts and credible opinions.

Stop believing all that nonsense backed by random nothing... you know like that imbecile called Nymex, who said today that the price of crude light should be as low as $118/bbl