Calling EJ - Time to ressurect Itulip! The US dollar reserve status is at risk.

[kbird]

the strength of the dollar lately would indicate that we're not in a balance of payments crisis YET.

Maybe. Or maybe the dollar is only not declining because we are allowing interest rates to rise. The Treasury market is signaling that something is not well.

[jk]

the problem with listening to the signals of the bond market is that the bond market is mostly artificial these days, given the size of the fed balance sheet. the low long rates MIGHT, in ordinary times, signal an expectation of reduced inflation or even recession and deflation, but the fed owns a lot of long dated paper.



Longer-term Treasury notes and bonds (excluding inflation-indexed securities) comprise two-thirds of that expansion, with holdings of those two types of securities more than doubling from $2.15 trillion on March 18, 2020 to $4.96 trillion on March 14, 2022.


this is just a manifestation of financial repression - keeping bond rates below the rate of inflation.

here's an interesting interview with russell napier. and here's a more recent but more limited interview at hidden forces.
here's something even more blunt.

[Jay]

Hello, I used to post here many years ago and revisited now that the world has finally turned the corner into serial higher interest rates and decreasing productivity with the end of this round of globalization. I'm happy to see many familiar posters, if infrequent. As for a global reserve currecy, I always thought we would end up with a Carbon based money and still believe we are heading that way. It rewards efficient, productive economies, and hence Western post-industrialized countries, which need a smaller amount of energy per GDP created and so less tax burden compared to emerging economies. That's fair as they built the current system for the most part, which has worked for a least the last few hundred years (if you count the dollar and sterling) for all of its warts. The potential Carbon credit market is obviously enormous so you can build a big enough bond market to make it work. In many ways the economy is energy. This board taught me a lot back in the day and I also would like to see it revived. There is a lot to digest when it comes to potential safe havens and I am very interested in other opinions. Esecially the move toward Carbon money and possible ways to invest safely. I am, and have been, sure we end up with a Carbon tax based bond market and global reserve if not in a fireball. We had many discussions about bitcoin here when a small investment would have made any of us centimlillionaires. I unfortunately did not invest early as I felt it had no intrinsic value outside of block chain technology and it turns out it likely doesn't. Sigh. Minds here can sort out the next wave too. Best, Jay