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Recession Indicator
Formula Disclosed
A) First, Aggregate Spread: (30yr yield less Fed Funds rate) less (Inflation rate less unemployment rate)
Recession is predicted when the value falls below ZERO.
On the chart, the third panel down, that is the KRWI from here : http://www.safehaven.com/article-7198.htm (chart 2)
The Blue line is the recession indicator, only one miss (just), back in 1961. Is 2008 a miss, I guess wait and see. I guess some of you are saying recession indicator is a bit late, just look out the window, true, but this was just fun for me. Notice the wiggle at the during 2005 and 2007, thats the FED pump and bull with inflation numbers.
This is the best indicator that I have found on the web, a combination of several ideas out there. Looks good to me !
Just imagine if you timed your property buy and sells with this chart over the last 5 decades, nice !
note: red shaded areas are confirmed periods of recession in the USA.
RecessionIndicator.jpg
Formula Disclosed
A) First, Aggregate Spread: (30yr yield less Fed Funds rate) less (Inflation rate less unemployment rate)
Recession is predicted when the value falls below ZERO.
On the chart, the third panel down, that is the KRWI from here : http://www.safehaven.com/article-7198.htm (chart 2)
The Blue line is the recession indicator, only one miss (just), back in 1961. Is 2008 a miss, I guess wait and see. I guess some of you are saying recession indicator is a bit late, just look out the window, true, but this was just fun for me. Notice the wiggle at the during 2005 and 2007, thats the FED pump and bull with inflation numbers.
This is the best indicator that I have found on the web, a combination of several ideas out there. Looks good to me !
Just imagine if you timed your property buy and sells with this chart over the last 5 decades, nice !
note: red shaded areas are confirmed periods of recession in the USA.
RecessionIndicator.jpg
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