Future of Transpotation as a Service(TaaS)

[prasadtalasila]

Next Decade

https://youtu.be/y916mxoio0E

[thriftyandboringinohio]

Thanks prasadtalasila, I watched it. Mr. Seba makes a convincing argument, it is very thought provoking.

I think he might be under estimating the resistance to the change, and might be over estimating the benefits. He doesn't discuss a few pretty important factors for people who own their own cars today. First is the car as a private space. My car has a wonderful little set of personal things just for me. A toothbrush and toothpaste. A little vial with a few pills. My prescription sunglasses. The two phone charging cables I use. It's a small kit that would fit into a little sack, but I'd need to either do without them or keep track of them when traveling by TaaS. Similarly, my car is a bit like a hat - I'm happy to wear mine even though I don't often clean it, but wearing yours seems somehow unappealing or unsanitary. Sure, I've been in taxi cabs and trains hundreds of times, but it feels nicer to be in my own car. This factor will likely slow adoption of TaaS.

Another is wait time for pickup. Even though I might wait only 4 minutes for my automated taxi, I don't like that wait in our instant-gratification world of time management and on-demand delivery. Perhaps it is better described as a certain lack control which applies not only to departure time, but also to the route selected and last minute diversions along the way. This isn't a true shortcoming, it's more like a minor annoyance or inconvenience. Still, it works against adopting TaaS fully.

Another is shopping trips. Without a doubt in the long term anything we want to buy will be delivered. But here and now I need to go pick up four more bags of fertilizer quick before it rains, or sacks of groceries for a sudden dinner. My personal auto takes the cargo conveniently. This too is only an annoyance, not a show stopper.

The last I'll mention is longer trips. DrIving across town to go kayaking in the river, or a 1 hour trip to a nearby City to spend a few hours. TaaS in that situation is less appealing.

The adoption examples he points to seem fundamentally different. When cars replaced horses, and when color TVs became popular, they were dramatically better than the old technology on the one hand, and had no real drawback on the other hand. TaaS is not better than a private auto, it's at best equivalent to a private auto. It's not a big leap forward as a user experience. And it brings a certain amount of inconvenience and annoyance along. More hassle for the same result. Sadly, people are almost immune to a great life-cycle cost analysis, perhaps because the payoff is far away.

None the less he's clearly on to something important. Even though I think he's partly wrong, I also think he's partly right. We might be surprised how quickly TaaS can become widespread, though perhaps not the total and sudden adoption he foretells. Today we may indeed have the biggest private auto fleet the world will ever see, with auto purchasing and ownership falling fast for decades to come. I think he's wrong about reclaiming the parking spaces in our cities because land use can't be changed much, especially finding some practical use for zillions of little parking spots. That real estate has been atomized into tiny scattered pieces. But he's probably mostly right that significant amounts of personal income can be diverted from the auto industry into other things. And his findings about the impact of all this in the petroleum industry might be actionable if you are investing on a 20 year time scale.

[Mega]

[Mega]

[Mega]

Battery is a no go, "Green power" will be turned into Hydrogen which can be pumped into the Gas network or used for Fuel Cell cars or "Carbon netural" gasoline.

Mike

[thriftyandboringinohio]

Battery is a no go, "Green power" will be turned into Hydrogen which can be pumped into the Gas network or used for Fuel Cell cars or "Carbon netural" gasoline.

Mike

Mike, it's hard to call battery EVs a no-go when today there are more than 5 million of them on the road. While fuel cells are simple and elegant ideas in theory they turn out to be fussy and fiddly gadgets to live with in real life. The platinum loading is a significant issue for wide adoption. Today's fuel cells require enough platinum that there is not enough of it in the whole world to replace all the ICE cars with fuel cell cars. In 50 years fuel cells and hydrogen might be the answer but it's not ready for prime time yet.

[Mega]

Billions of large battey packs?
The fuel cell car no longer needs platinum
https://www.autocar.co.uk/car-news/n...roduction-form



2024 will be a great year of change

Le Mann 24 race will allow hydrogen fuel cell cars
F1 switches to Two Stroke hybrids using "Carbon Netural" Fuel

Tesla will be gone, BEV will move to short range "Pleb" transport

Mike

[Mega]

Look, they going to have to do with 44 Kw/H battery............so it needs to look like this

[Mega]

The Cheap 1 will be under £25,000 0-60 in 10-11 sec 90 mph..................VW intend to ship 1 million a year..............but its not the end ICE

[Mega]

\people would rather own their own

[prasadtalasila]

Thanks prasadtalasila, I watched it. Mr. Seba makes a convincing argument, it is very thought provoking.

I think he might be under estimating the resistance to the change, and might be over estimating the benefits. He doesn't discuss a few pretty important factors for people who own their own cars today. First is the car as a private space. My car has a wonderful little set of personal things just for me. A toothbrush and toothpaste. A little vial with a few pills. My prescription sunglasses. The two phone charging cables I use. It's a small kit that would fit into a little sack, but I'd need to either do without them or keep track of them when traveling by TaaS. Similarly, my car is a bit like a hat - I'm happy to wear mine even though I don't often clean it, but wearing yours seems somehow unappealing or unsanitary. Sure, I've been in taxi cabs and trains hundreds of times, but it feels nicer to be in my own car. This factor will likely slow adoption of TaaS.

Another is wait time for pickup. Even though I might wait only 4 minutes for my automated taxi, I don't like that wait in our instant-gratification world of time management and on-demand delivery. Perhaps it is better described as a certain lack control which applies not only to departure time, but also to the route selected and last minute diversions along the way. This isn't a true shortcoming, it's more like a minor annoyance or inconvenience. Still, it works against adopting TaaS fully.

Another is shopping trips. Without a doubt in the long term anything we want to buy will be delivered. But here and now I need to go pick up four more bags of fertilizer quick before it rains, or sacks of groceries for a sudden dinner. My personal auto takes the cargo conveniently. This too is only an annoyance, not a show stopper.

The last I'll mention is longer trips. DrIving across town to go kayaking in the river, or a 1 hour trip to a nearby City to spend a few hours. TaaS in that situation is less appealing.

The adoption examples he points to seem fundamentally different. When cars replaced horses, and when color TVs became popular, they were dramatically better than the old technology on the one hand, and had no real drawback on the other hand. TaaS is not better than a private auto, it's at best equivalent to a private auto. It's not a big leap forward as a user experience. And it brings a certain amount of inconvenience and annoyance along. More hassle for the same result. Sadly, people are almost immune to a great life-cycle cost analysis, perhaps because the payoff is far away.

None the less he's clearly on to something important. Even though I think he's partly wrong, I also think he's partly right. We might be surprised how quickly TaaS can become widespread, though perhaps not the total and sudden adoption he foretells. Today we may indeed have the biggest private auto fleet the world will ever see, with auto purchasing and ownership falling fast for decades to come. I think he's wrong about reclaiming the parking spaces in our cities because land use can't be changed much, especially finding some practical use for zillions of little parking spots. That real estate has been atomized into tiny scattered pieces. But he's probably mostly right that significant amounts of personal income can be diverted from the auto industry into other things. And his findings about the impact of all this in the petroleum industry might be actionable if you are investing on a 20 year time scale.

Tony Seba 10 years ago

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=MAFoqo3Jbro

[jk]

Tony Seba 10 years ago

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=MAFoqo3Jbro

EVEN IF EV'S TAKE OVER [doubtful], its a different issue than taas. re taas- it's not just wait time, it's the UNCERTAINTY of wait time. my wife needed to get to lax once and repeatedly had cars accept the ride, then cancel it while the clock kept ticking. i've had waits that were notably longer than the predicted ones. nothing is certain, but your own vehicle is a lot more certain than taas.

[Mega]

Life is about collecting things:-
Nice Job
Nice Home
Nice Wife/Hub (What ever)
&.............NICE CAR(S) !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

Right Now Tesla is like Japan in WW2.............the Model 3 was "Peal Harbour" ............like Yam-a-mote-to he can run wild, but neither are the Big car producers or Big oil going to sit still.

Telsa will be "disrupted" itself in 2024 by Hydrogen fuel cell cars............Le Mann 24, just think how sexy a win for a Fuel Cell car would be. Fuel cell cars that are massively lighter than a BEV.

I can see the Ad's now:- Good looking woman gases up her Fuel Cell car, looking in mirror (as she pulls away) to see a man looking confussed by the battery charger not working..."Bye Bye Battery Boy" she sez...

[Mega]

The "7 sisters" are not going down without a fight.........."Carbon caputure" & Carbon Neutral synthetic fuels..........expensive but do able.
New 2 stroke high tec engines....on the way in F1.

My thoughts are is that the total possabile oil production out put is 96 million barrels a day.........if China allows its currancy to rise so will the living standards its people, there oil demand will rocket...at lest 135 million barrels a day. What about South America?...............Africa?..........China dragging them along.............India, Central Asia?

Deep down i suspect i "Deal" has been agreed..........the Bankurpt Western Useless Eaters will be forced to use a HELL of a lot less oil on themselves.