Misery Index (Unemployment, Inflation, House Value Change)

[icm63]

From my new membership at http://www.economagic.com/

Here is a picture of how the USA consumer is feeling at the moment.

Formula: Inflation plus Unemployment less Rate of Change of House value

As you can see from the most recent reading it is as high as any of the previous recessions, and rising.

I suppose if I followed the FED I should be using CORE inflation (as none of you eat or drive).

CONFIRMED : Consumer lead recession to follow in 2008/09, dont ya think !

Also we know that inflation is much higher than reported, as Clinton changed the calculations in 1991 ( i think).

I have found the http://www.economagic.com/ site to be excellent, the developer has work to do to fix up some programming errors, but I am encouraging him to fix them. Bye.

[FRED]

Re: Misery Index (Unemployment, Inflation, House Value Change)

From my new membership at http://www.economagic.com/

Here is a picture of how the USA consumer is feeling at the moment.

Formula: Inflation plus Unemployment less Rate of Change of House value

As you can see from the most recent reading it is as high as any of the previous recessions, and rising.

[ATTACH]456[/ATTACH]

I suppose if I followed the FED I should be using CORE inflation (as none of you eat or drive).

CONFIRMED : Consumer lead recession to follow in 2008/09, dont ya think !

Also we know that inflation is much higher than reported, as Clinton changed the calculations in 1991 ( i think).

I have found the http://www.economagic.com/ site to be excellent, the developer has work to do to fix up some programming errors, but I am encouraging him to fix them. Bye.

We should collaborate on that. Been using economagic for nearly 10 years. Two main complaints:

- Lots of discontinued series
- Bugs that crash when you try to calculate a series going back too far or with more than a few series

[icm63]

Re: Misery Index (Unemployment, Inflation, House Value Change)

.."Lots of discontinued series, Bugs that crash when you try to calculate a series going back too far or with more than a few series"..

I have been sending Ted (developer) emails, I know how to use VB and he has used vb for his site. Most of the tweaks are simple, I think he does most of his work in excel, and has lost touch with the online version.

Anyways, he will get my emails from me until he's fixed it.

True, Lots of discontinued series, cant do much about that if Ted does not want to.

Lets hope he puts the time in. Good to know he has been around for 10 years, tho !

[LargoWinch]

Re: Misery Index (Unemployment, Inflation, House Value Change)

icm63, interesting chart indeed. Thanks.

Do you know if the inflation is calculated the same from 1965 to 2007? I suppose here that the government inflation data is used, which would understate the current misery index?

[icm63]

Re: Misery Index (Unemployment, Inflation, House Value Change)

from here : http://bigpicture.typepad.com/commen...ion-infla.html

bizinflate430_sm.png

This chart does not have June 08 data in it, so if we used 1983 inflation as 13% for Jun 08 say, Misery index would be above 23, the highest reading since 1965. And thats closer to reality!

[icm63]

Re: Misery Index (Unemployment, Inflation, House Value Change)

Check out Misery index with Stocks, I submit the 1968/1974 reaction maybe the 2008 reaction.
Stocks on a log scale.

The 1980 reaction was mild, maybe they had no credit crunch then, dunno !

MiseryIndexWithStocks.gif

[LargoWinch]

Re: Misery Index (Unemployment, Inflation, House Value Change)

so if we used 1983 inflation as 13% for Jun 08 say, Misery index would be above 23, the highest reading since 1965. And thats closer to reality!

Well this do not look good indeed.

Our governments are truly failing us, the poorest members of our society - no of the entire globe - are suffering the most. This is exactly the opposite of what governments should accomplish.

Sorry there icm63, I know that everyone understands that here (and more), but sometimes it feels good to let go some frustration.

Thanks again for the update, insightful indeed.

[bart]

Re: Misery Index (Unemployment, Inflation, House Value Change)

[icm63]

Re: Misery Index (Unemployment, Inflation, House Value Change)

Show off, show poney, how do I get to play with data like that !

Thanks for the charts nowandthen !

Amy chance of adding the effect of house price changes from 1900 to 2009?

[bart]

Re: Misery Index (Unemployment, Inflation, House Value Change)

Show off, show poney, how do I get to play with data like that !

Thanks for the charts nowandthen !

Amy chance of adding the effect of house price changes from 1900 to 2009?

Good one on "nowandthen"!

You too can avoid being a 98 lb. chart weakling with Excel, a big PC and about 3000 hours of data collection and fiddling? ;)

What are you looking at on adding the effects of house price changes? Something like annual change rates with the same or smaller weight than U6 and CPI w/o lies?

[icm63]

Re: Misery Index (Unemployment, Inflation, House Value Change)

Proposal: Please spend the next 1000 hours placing your data into a database behind a website for user (subscriber) manipulation.

I would gladly pay !

[icm63]

Re: Misery Index (Unemployment, Inflation, House Value Change)

Did we all BUY SKF today, after the suckers rally in financials ! Up $13++

[bart]

Re: Misery Index (Unemployment, Inflation, House Value Change)

Proposal: Please spend the next 1000 hours placing your data into a database behind a website for user (subscriber) manipulation.

I would gladly pay !

I've thought about that numerous times but there are too many downsides like lack of time (and way less time for research) and our litigious culture.

I will note though that with very few exceptions, all the data in my master Excel workbook from hell is available publicly and most of the links are on my site.

[bart]

Re: Misery Index (Unemployment, Inflation, House Value Change)

Amy chance of adding the effect of house price changes from 1900 to 2009?

I was curious just winged it with 1970 through last week, and under weighted the housing index data by 1/3.

[metalman]

Re: Misery Index (Unemployment, Inflation, House Value Change)

I was curious just winged it with 1970 through last week, and under weighted the housing index data by 1/3.

u-6 + cpi w/o lies + housing = the real deal. uuuuuugly!