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Fannie Mae Unsold $5 Billion Homes Bring Peril to Shareholders

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  • Fannie Mae Unsold $5 Billion Homes Bring Peril to Shareholders

    Think you got troubles selling your home in competition with all of the other private sellers in your neighborhood, plus the banks that now own homes and are selling at fire sale prices to get rid of them before prices fall further? Try selling against Fannie Mae, too. Bloomberg reports that the agents for Fannie ``are all recent college grads without experience'' and``...have 300 files each and they're overwhelmed.'' That's 300 homes that need the lawn mowed, the leaves raked, the broken branches picked up after every storm. Or, in some neighborhoods, the squatters kicked out, the python removed from the bathroom, an the bat feces cleaned out of the walk-in closet. Ain't this bubble bust even more fun than the last one?
    Fannie Mae Unsold $5 Billion Homes Bring Peril to Shareholders
    July 23, 2008 (Bob Ivry and Sharon L. Lynch - Bloomberg)

    Fannie Mae, the largest U.S. mortgage finance company, couldn't find a buyer who would pay $6,900 for the three-bedroom house at 1916 Prospect St. in Flint, Michigan. So broker Raymond Megie, who is handling the foreclosure sale, advised cutting the price to $5,000.

    Megie still couldn't sell it. ``There's oversupply,'' he said. The home sold in 2005 for $110,000.

    Fannie Mae acquired twice as many homes through foreclosure in the first quarter as it sold, regulatory filings show. Unsold properties may weigh on the company's stock, which lost almost half its value since June 5, said Moshe Orenbuch, managing director of equity research at Credit Suisse Group AG in New York. Late payments on the company's home loans, a harbinger of foreclosures, almost doubled in the past year.

    Together, Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, the two biggest U.S. mortgage finance companies, owned a record $6.9 billion of foreclosed homes on March 31, compared with $8.56 billion held by all 8,500 U.S. commercial banks and savings and loans. Foreclosed houses sell at an average discount of about 20 percent, according to economists Ethan Harris and Michelle Meyer at New York-based Lehman Brothers Holdings Inc. At that rate, the two mortgage companies stand to lose $1.39 billion on the foreclosed houses they currently own.

    ``Progress on this is probably one of, if not the single most important economic process right now,'' Orenbuch said. ``With prices decreasing, it's better to get rid of houses quickly.''
    AntiSpin: Let's rewind and replay that last bit: ``With prices decreasing, it's better to get rid of houses quickly.'' You don't suppose the drive to get rid of houses quickly is putting downward pressure on prices, do you? They don't think so.
    ``We are very careful to ensure our properties are not driving market values down and they show well,'' Beckles said. ``Our challenge is like everyone else's from a volume perspective: maximize recovery and minimize credit losses, and balance that with making sure we're not driving down property values and not destabilizing neighborhoods.''
    Part of the difficulty for all owners of foreclosed property, and not just Fannie Mae, is a shortage of qualified agents in the field who can sell the homes efficiently, said Jesse Ramirez, a broker associate at Re/Max Partners Real Estate in Corona, California.

    ``They are all recent college grads without experience,'' Ramirez said. ``They have 300 files each and they're overwhelmed. They don't understand how the typical transaction goes. These people didn't have jobs two years ago, not doing this.''
    Now we have government sponsored enterprises (GSEs), or if the Foreclosure Prevention Act of 2008 passes, just "the government" competing with lenders whose loans they should never have purchased, to sell homes in competition with home owners who mistakenly bought homes on the theory that markets have anything to do with home prices in America.

    Everyone was pretty happy about the government subsidy of the US real estate industry that started under FDR in the 1930s, accelerated with tax give-aways under Reagan 1986 and under Clinton in 1997 when these caused prices to go up, up, up. Now that the price fixing scheme has failed, as they always do, everyone is screaming bloody murder.

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    Last edited by FRED; July 23, 2008, 05:07 PM.
    Ed.

  • #2
    Re: Fannie Mae Unsold $5 Billion Homes Bring Peril to Shareholders

    Also relevant - Foreclosure pain intensifies in valley, state

    Comment


    • #3
      Re: Fannie Mae Unsold $5 Billion Homes Bring Peril to Shareholders

      Originally posted by FRED View Post
      Think you got troubles selling your home in competition with all of the other private sellers in your neighborhood, plus the banks that now own homes and are selling at fire sale prices to get rid of them before prices fall further? Try selling against Fannie Mae, too. Bloomberg reports that the agents for Fannie ``are all recent college grads without experience'' and``...have 300 files each and they're overwhelmed.'' That's 300 homes that need the lawn mowed, the leaves raked, the broken branches picked up after every storm. Or, in some neighborhoods, the squatters kicked out, the python removed from the bathroom, an the bat feces cleaned out of the walk-in closet. Ain't this bubble bust even more fun than the last one?
      Fannie Mae Unsold $5 Billion Homes Bring Peril to Shareholders
      July 23, 2008 (Bob Ivry and Sharon L. Lynch - Bloomberg)

      Fannie Mae, the largest U.S. mortgage finance company, couldn't find a buyer who would pay $6,900 for the three-bedroom house at 1916 Prospect St. in Flint, Michigan. So broker Raymond Megie, who is handling the foreclosure sale, advised cutting the price to $5,000.

      Megie still couldn't sell it. ``There's oversupply,'' he said. The home sold in 2005 for $110,000.

      Fannie Mae acquired twice as many homes through foreclosure in the first quarter as it sold, regulatory filings show. Unsold properties may weigh on the company's stock, which lost almost half its value since June 5, said Moshe Orenbuch, managing director of equity research at Credit Suisse Group AG in New York. Late payments on the company's home loans, a harbinger of foreclosures, almost doubled in the past year.

      Together, Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, the two biggest U.S. mortgage finance companies, owned a record $6.9 billion of foreclosed homes on March 31, compared with $8.56 billion held by all 8,500 U.S. commercial banks and savings and loans. Foreclosed houses sell at an average discount of about 20 percent, according to economists Ethan Harris and Michelle Meyer at New York-based Lehman Brothers Holdings Inc. At that rate, the two mortgage companies stand to lose $1.39 billion on the foreclosed houses they currently own.

      ``Progress on this is probably one of, if not the single most important economic process right now,'' Orenbuch said. ``With prices decreasing, it's better to get rid of houses quickly.''
      AntiSpin: Let's rewind and replay that last bit: ``With prices decreasing, it's better to get rid of houses quickly.'' You don't suppose the drive to get rid of houses quickly is putting downward pressure on prices, do you? They don't think so.
      ``We are very careful to ensure our properties are not driving market values down and they show well,'' Beckles said. ``Our challenge is like everyone else's from a volume perspective: maximize recovery and minimize credit losses, and balance that with making sure we're not driving down property values and not destabilizing neighborhoods.''
      Part of the difficulty for all owners of foreclosed property, and not just Fannie Mae, is a shortage of qualified agents in the field who can sell the homes efficiently, said Jesse Ramirez, a broker associate at Re/Max Partners Real Estate in Corona, California.

      ``They are all recent college grads without experience,'' Ramirez said. ``They have 300 files each and they're overwhelmed. They don't understand how the typical transaction goes. These people didn't have jobs two years ago, not doing this.''
      Now we have government sponsored enterprises (GSEs), or if the Foreclosure Prevention Act of 2008 passes, just "the government" competing with lenders whose loans they should never have purchased, to sell homes in competition with home owners who mistakenly bought homes on the theory that markets have anything to do with home prices in America.

      Everyone was pretty happy about the government subsidy of the US real estate industry that started under FDR in the 1930s, accelerated with tax give-aways under Reagan 1986 and under Clinton in 1997 when these caused prices to go up, up, up. Now that the price fixing scheme has failed, as they always do, everyone is screaming bloody murder.

      iTulip Select: The Investment Thesis for the Next Cycle™
      __________________________________________________

      To receive the iTulip Newsletter or iTulip Alerts, Join our FREE Email Mailing List

      Copyright © iTulip, Inc. 1998 - 2007 All Rights Reserved

      All information provided "as is" for informational purposes only, not intended for trading purposes or advice. Nothing appearing on this website should be considered a recommendation to buy or to sell any security or related financial instrument. iTulip, Inc. is not liable for any informational errors, incompleteness, or delays, or for any actions taken in reliance on information contained herein. Full Disclaimer
      There is a multimillion dollar business opportunity in all this - do U see it? I LOVE this country
      Last edited by rabot10; July 23, 2008, 05:54 PM.

      Comment


      • #4
        Re: Fannie Mae Unsold $5 Billion Homes Bring Peril to Shareholders

        Originally posted by RickBishop View Post
        There is a multimillion dollar business opportunity in all this - do U see it? I LOVE this country
        EJ writes in:
        Angel investors, more than VCs, made a bundle off the remnants of the last bubble, picking through the rubble of broken tech companies for the few that were winners that had gotten priced down to zero along with the bad. In the liquidity bloom between 2004 and 2007 they started to go out at big multiples in M&A funded by debt, and a dead cat bounce in the IPO market.

        That will not work today. The IPO market is down and out. The debt bubble that funded the M&A boom is over.

        How about houses? Not for resale – the liquidity may not be there for five to ten years. Buying RRE now only makes sense if they can be bought at prices below monthly rental cost and in a location that holds up through the recession.

        So the opportunity comes down to this: What will happen to rents as the recession evolves? Friends who are landlords report increased incidents of tenants missing rent payments and unemployment has only started to rise. A tech company and especially an Internet company can be moth balled for a years to await the return of liquidity. Empty homes are expensive to maintain, and the cycle may be very long. On the other hand, money for these investments is available today but may not be in a year, after the credit crunch takes its toll on confidence.
        Ed.

        Comment


        • #5
          Re: Fannie Mae Unsold $5 Billion Homes Bring Peril to Shareholders

          They were huge sub-prime players.

          It is much worse than a sad state of affairs when guys in the position of Paulson can go in front of Congress and tell the country that Fannie and Freddie business practices were and are not part of the problem.

          Comment


          • #6
            Re: Fannie Mae Unsold $5 Billion Homes Bring Peril to Shareholders

            It's all only about to start. But i don't mind paying $100,000 for a brand new Manhattan studio. :p

            I believe that suburb American real estate may take more than 15 years to recover once the recession is over.

            There are better investments with quicker returns.


            Originally posted by FRED View Post
            How about houses? Not for resale – the liquidity may not be there for five to ten years. Buying RRE now only makes sense if they can be bought at prices below monthly rental cost and in a location that holds up through the recession.

            Comment


            • #7
              Re: Fannie Mae Unsold $5 Billion Homes Bring Peril to Shareholders

              I wonder what will happen to rental prices? All these foreclosed homes may eventually be bought by investors, and turned into rentals. But in the meantime, while the foreclosure process drags on and on, the displaced home debt slaves will need to find a new place to live, so this will increase demand for rental units, which could raise rental rates. And falling home prices would permit investors to achieve outsized internal rates of return if rental rates hold steady rather than down due to excess supply of units.

              Then again alot of people are taking in new borders in their primary residences in order to meet their daily expenses, and these additional rental options for tenants/borders should push prices down, because these tenants will not be available for rentals of investor purchase units (i.e. landlords will find a deficit in available tenants because distressed homeowners will take so many in).

              Any thought as to where rental prices are going and why?

              Comment


              • #8
                Re: Fannie Mae Unsold $5 Billion Homes Bring Peril to Shareholders

                A coupla thoughts on property values and rentals:
                • I don't think some areas will ever return to their peak values, since rising fuel costs will make the commute to the more remote suburbs (the "exurbs") impractical. I see a move away from the "suburban lifestyle" that has dominated American society for the last 50 years.
                • As far as rental units, you're competing not only against freestanding homes, but also against gazillions of condo units that will eventually become rentals, one way or another.
                • Even if you find a nice house to use as a rental in a decent neighborhood, who's to say that the house next door won't turn into a fed-owned nightmare with a festering swimming pool, peeling paint and drug users throwing wild parties into the night?
                I'd stay out of investment real estate right now. If you really want to throw your money away, there are lots more fun ways to accomplish that. :cool:

                - Pete

                Comment


                • #9
                  Re: Fannie Mae Unsold $5 Billion Homes Bring Peril to Shareholders

                  Originally posted by RebbePete View Post
                  A coupla thoughts on property values and rentals:
                  • I don't think some areas will ever return to their peak values, since rising fuel costs will make the commute to the more remote suburbs (the "exurbs") impractical. I see a move away from the "suburban lifestyle" that has dominated American society for the last 50 years.
                  • As far as rental units, you're competing not only against freestanding homes, but also against gazillions of condo units that will eventually become rentals, one way or another.
                  • Even if you find a nice house to use as a rental in a decent neighborhood, who's to say that the house next door won't turn into a fed-owned nightmare with a festering swimming pool, peeling paint and drug users throwing wild parties into the night?
                  I'd stay out of investment real estate right now. If you really want to throw your money away, there are lots more fun ways to accomplish that. :cool:

                  - Pete
                  Failure in the condo market -- the as yet untold story.

                  Comment


                  • #10
                    Re: Fannie Mae Unsold $5 Billion Homes Bring Peril to Shareholders

                    In my area (upper midwest, USA) we're also seeing an increase in rental property supply due to builders renting out spec homes that have been sitting on the market for 2+ years.

                    An additional pressure that is having a trickle down effect is that bank regulators are increasing pressure on community banks to either get the loans secured by these spec homes paid off or put the properties into foreclosure. In response more and more builders are attempting to supplement cash flows by finding "tenants" through lease to own programs and contracts for deed.

                    Comment


                    • #11
                      Re: Fannie Mae Unsold $5 Billion Homes Bring Peril to Shareholders

                      All this, yet in my area you can still see new subdivision roads being cut in every day. All while dozens of chained off new subdivisions sit empty. What is with that? I've also noticed quite a large amount of new retail shops being built, and now sitting empty or only partially leased.

                      My guess is that developers that already had the loans are going to go full steam ahead, collect a fat salary for as long as possible, and leave the banks holding the bag. It makes no sense otherwise.

                      Comment


                      • #12
                        Re: Fannie Mae Unsold $5 Billion Homes Bring Peril to Shareholders

                        Originally posted by RebbePete
                        I don't think some areas will ever return to their peak values, since rising fuel costs will make the commute to the more remote suburbs (the "exurbs") impractical. I see a move away from the "suburban lifestyle" that has dominated American society for the last 50 years.
                        Pete,

                        Even I, the 'dark cloud', don't think that homes will never return to their previous values.

                        It may take 100 years, but even when the house crumbles, just population growth will eventually compensate.

                        Unless we really do go Mad Max :eek:

                        Comment

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