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Wall Street's laughing all the way to the bank
FABRICE TAYLOR - The Globe & Mail
Wednesday, July 23, 2008
The credit crisis really puts the free in free market. The freest market is supposed to be the United States, and the evidence in favour of that argument is mounting. It's just not what you think. Free, in this case, means a free ride for a select group of people. Wall Street never looked so good, or bad, depending on your perspective.
From early 2004 until mid-2007, the big Wall Street investment banks made $250-billion (U.S.) in profits. (That's Bank of America, Citigroup, JPMorgan, Morgan Stanley, Goldman Sachs, Lehman Brothers and Merrill Lynch.) During the past year, they've written off $107-billion. Keep in mind as we follow the money that if you include smaller dealers and commercial banks, the profit number swells and the writeoffs are even bigger.
As fate would have it, the writedowns, mostly garbage subprime loans, equal almost perfectly the amount of money Washington will dole out in stimulus cheques to get the economy going again. The House of Representatives Speaker said last year that the stimulus package would create 500,000 jobs. She got the number more or less right, but it was actually a loss of jobs.
Meanwhile, recent figures show that of the money that's been mailed and spent, only a 10th has gone to new spending.
The rest of it has been consumed by inflation (that is, because prices have gone up, even if consumers take their money to the mall, they're not helping the economy much).
Inflation is partly a product of easy money or low interest rates. Why does the Federal Reserve keep interest rates low? To stimulate the economy, which is being ravaged by the housing recession. The housing recession, meanwhile, was fuelled by Wall Street's greed and recklessness, aided and abetted by the easy money and the fraudulence of builders, appraisers and mortgage brokers.
Back to Wall Street to start connecting the dots. According to the New York State Comptroller's Office, the big banks paid $33.2-billion in bonuses in 2007, down only slightly from 2006, an even more splendid year for subprime origination. During the past four years, bonuses closed in on $100-billion, not far off the writeoffs and the stimulus package.
Back to Washington, whose coffers are bare, meaning that $107-billion is borrowed money. Borrowed from whom? Savers, mostly foreign. Borrowed by whom? The taxpayer of course. So in effect, the stimulus package is simply a matter of the cash-strapped, highly indebted U.S. consumer borrowing to spend (or pay debts) to save the economy.
It's pretty clear what's happening. Ultimately, the people are borrowing to pay Wall Street bonuses. After all, these handsome rewards are based on the earnings of the banks, but they're not real earnings, since the assets that produced them are subsequently written off.
The bubble that created these bogus earnings was inflated with the help of low money costs and lax supervision of financial firms.
The bursting bubble is roughing up the economy so badly that the government has to borrow to stimulate spending, which it fails to do. It might also have to borrow $25-billion to bail out government-sponsored mortgage insurers, including Fannie Mae. And since the government is really just the people who are getting hurt by the slowing economy, with no bonuses to comfort them, is this not the greatest transfer of wealth in history?
And we haven't touched on other largesse the people have extended Wall Street, such as the loan guarantees that helped JPMorgan buy Bear Stearns.
Marx has nothing on these people. And you can argue that some of the losses are marked to market and might be reversed and that some of the bonuses were paid to people who had nothing to do with subprime. Probably true, but hair-splitting I say.
We Canadians can learn a lot from our friends to the south, including what not to do.
Fabrice Taylor is a chartered financial analyst.
FABRICE TAYLOR - The Globe & Mail
Wednesday, July 23, 2008
The credit crisis really puts the free in free market. The freest market is supposed to be the United States, and the evidence in favour of that argument is mounting. It's just not what you think. Free, in this case, means a free ride for a select group of people. Wall Street never looked so good, or bad, depending on your perspective.
From early 2004 until mid-2007, the big Wall Street investment banks made $250-billion (U.S.) in profits. (That's Bank of America, Citigroup, JPMorgan, Morgan Stanley, Goldman Sachs, Lehman Brothers and Merrill Lynch.) During the past year, they've written off $107-billion. Keep in mind as we follow the money that if you include smaller dealers and commercial banks, the profit number swells and the writeoffs are even bigger.
As fate would have it, the writedowns, mostly garbage subprime loans, equal almost perfectly the amount of money Washington will dole out in stimulus cheques to get the economy going again. The House of Representatives Speaker said last year that the stimulus package would create 500,000 jobs. She got the number more or less right, but it was actually a loss of jobs.
Meanwhile, recent figures show that of the money that's been mailed and spent, only a 10th has gone to new spending.
The rest of it has been consumed by inflation (that is, because prices have gone up, even if consumers take their money to the mall, they're not helping the economy much).
Inflation is partly a product of easy money or low interest rates. Why does the Federal Reserve keep interest rates low? To stimulate the economy, which is being ravaged by the housing recession. The housing recession, meanwhile, was fuelled by Wall Street's greed and recklessness, aided and abetted by the easy money and the fraudulence of builders, appraisers and mortgage brokers.
Back to Wall Street to start connecting the dots. According to the New York State Comptroller's Office, the big banks paid $33.2-billion in bonuses in 2007, down only slightly from 2006, an even more splendid year for subprime origination. During the past four years, bonuses closed in on $100-billion, not far off the writeoffs and the stimulus package.
Back to Washington, whose coffers are bare, meaning that $107-billion is borrowed money. Borrowed from whom? Savers, mostly foreign. Borrowed by whom? The taxpayer of course. So in effect, the stimulus package is simply a matter of the cash-strapped, highly indebted U.S. consumer borrowing to spend (or pay debts) to save the economy.
It's pretty clear what's happening. Ultimately, the people are borrowing to pay Wall Street bonuses. After all, these handsome rewards are based on the earnings of the banks, but they're not real earnings, since the assets that produced them are subsequently written off.
The bubble that created these bogus earnings was inflated with the help of low money costs and lax supervision of financial firms.
The bursting bubble is roughing up the economy so badly that the government has to borrow to stimulate spending, which it fails to do. It might also have to borrow $25-billion to bail out government-sponsored mortgage insurers, including Fannie Mae. And since the government is really just the people who are getting hurt by the slowing economy, with no bonuses to comfort them, is this not the greatest transfer of wealth in history?
And we haven't touched on other largesse the people have extended Wall Street, such as the loan guarantees that helped JPMorgan buy Bear Stearns.
Marx has nothing on these people. And you can argue that some of the losses are marked to market and might be reversed and that some of the bonuses were paid to people who had nothing to do with subprime. Probably true, but hair-splitting I say.
We Canadians can learn a lot from our friends to the south, including what not to do.
Fabrice Taylor is a chartered financial analyst.
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