Gold price manipulation is spelled out to CFTC

[LargoWinch]

This analysis is almost identical to what I have seen on iTulip back in the spring of 08: huge dips in the price of Gold/Silver.

This guy makes for a convincing argument (even includes a graph). Here are some interesting comments made by the author:

[As it is clearly illustrated in the above chart, the nearly identical large sales of gold contracts in a short period of time over consecutive days at precisely the same time are indicative that the seller’s intent was clearly not to maximize their sale price.]

and then...

[The entire U.S. official gold reserves are approximately 8,140 metric tones or at $955 per ounce $274 billion, resulting in the notional value of
commercial bank derivatives positions equaling about 48% of the entire U.S. official gold reserves.]

and further down the letter:

[...the total notional amount of derivatives greatly exceed each bank’s total assets,...]

So much so for "betting against the house"...

The question is: What happens the day the house is no more?

Ah, I almost forgot, here is a copy of the letter sent to the CTFC:

http://www.gata.org/files/RodriguezL...07-20-2008.pdf

[phirang]

Re: Gold price manipulation is spelled out to CFTC

I am long gold, but I put more faith(and money) in met coal and copper: you can make wind turbines and oil/gas equipment with those!

[LargoWinch]

Re: Gold price manipulation is spelled out to CFTC

phirang, it is my understanding that copper and maybe coal (?) went up like 5+ times since 2000, while gold went up less than 4x. (I am lazy to find the graphs, but maybe someone can help before I find them).

Furthermore, I think there will be a significant slowdown in the US and maybe even globally, reducing the demand for industrial commodities.

Again, gold having very limited industrial uses (besides jewellry and some electronic applications), should continue to rise during a real negative interest rates environment.

My $$$ would clearly be on gold not copper or coal in the short/medium term.

If you think energy is great, why not by Crude Oil or Natural Gas via ETF/ETN instead of playing this indirectly via copper/coal?

But "Hey" thats my 2 cents worth

[phirang]

Re: Gold price manipulation is spelled out to CFTC

Go visit africa, the middle east, south america, and asia, and get back to me on this supposed commodity crash.

[LargoWinch]

Re: Gold price manipulation is spelled out to CFTC

dont get me wrong, commodities are in a secular bull market.

I am simply suggesting that industrial commodities may take a pause in Q3/Q4 this year and maybe next year before resuming their bullish trend.

Gold however, will not be subject to the same short-term pressures due to real negative interest rates among other things.

[phirang]

Re: Gold price manipulation is spelled out to CFTC

You can buy junior base metal stocks with high grade reserves which are 2 years away from production for pennies on NAV with metal prices half what they are now.

The problem with gold is money goes there to die: eventually, it will leave the gold and go somewhere else, somewhere productive. I do agree, tho, that bullion is a good place to be for the next few months, but the die-hard gold-bugs are f'ing idiots.

[LargoWinch]

Re: Gold price manipulation is spelled out to CFTC

the die-hard gold-bugs are f'ing idiots.

These are strong words for an investment class which I believe makes a lot of sense now.

What is M3 growth? What are the governments unfunded liabilities? What if foreign Central Banks want to replace USD with gold as reserve currency (and stop selling, but buy Gold)? Have you ever hoarded copper to pay someone?

I think gold makes alot of sense now and for the foreseable future; more so than a lot of things, crude oil is perhaps the only exception.

Again, all monetary metals are gonna do very well as a store of value provided real neg. interest rates environment, that is until Volcker#2 comes along and raises interest rates by 9-10pts above inflation...

[phirang]

Re: Gold price manipulation is spelled out to CFTC

I'd rather own sulphuric acid right now: 600% increase in the past 10 months.

Concrete is 30 euros/ton for C150, if you can get it. Then ago, depends if it's CIF/FOB etc.

[LargoWinch]

Re: Gold price manipulation is spelled out to CFTC

Do you keep your sulphuric acid on the balcony or in the fridge?

A nice ton of concrete to impress friends at home?

[phirang]

Re: Gold price manipulation is spelled out to CFTC

Do you keep your sulphuric acid on the balcony or in the fridge?

A nice ton of concrete to impress friends at home?

I'd rather own shares(got cheaply, of course) in a vertically-integrated sulphuric acid plant now than bullion ANYDAY. Also, a good dividend would sweeten the deal.

Hell, I'd be surprised if Fording coal doesn't increase their dividend!

[pinhead]

Re: Gold price manipulation is spelled out to CFTC

Not to butt in on your conversation,
I think you have to consider what might happen to paper stocks, of any nature in the markets going forward as financial markets continue to get interupted and beaten. How will that impact stocks specifically?
Significantly, in my opinion.

[LargoWinch]

Re: Gold price manipulation is spelled out to CFTC

Exactly, I expect that most stocks would go down somewhat in the event of a major selloff in the markets.

Is it not what they call systemic market risks?

[Guest]

Re: Gold price manipulation is spelled out to CFTC

I'd rather own shares(got cheaply, of course) in a vertically-integrated sulphuric acid plant now than bullion ANYDAY!

The reason the Sulphuric Acid has had such a runup Phirang is because of the massive bid underpinning mining - from base metals up through the PM's. Your comment betrays your investment bias. You like paper claims on what you regard as "productive assets", and at some point in the next ten years your predilection for paper claims is going to burn you somewhat. You have a predilection for a series of asset forms (paper shares) that risk retreat, not advance, due to the increasingly "fibrillating" global stock markets in the midst of the oil crunch. Peak Cheap Oil will periodically make mincemeat of the equities markets, just like oil driven inflation in the 1970's created havoc in the share markets which was a milk-run for the equities market devastation we'll endure this time around due to that same oil driven inflation. The current go-around is "big-papa-bear-inflation-bear-market" vs. the 1970's which was "junior-bear-inflation-bear-market". When it periodically recurs this decade and next as inflation steepens into the double digits worldwide, don't forget you were advised beforehand. The guys you consider dim-wits, holding the dumb real physical and strategic assets (Uranium metal included) will be on top of that event, while the rest, caught up in the starry eyed equities end of the resource markets, periodically get shredded.

[Chris]

Re: Gold price manipulation is spelled out to CFTC

Lukester, how can one hold non-paper assets in the uranium sector? I'd rather not have a tonne of uranium ore sitting in my kitchen cupboard. Surely paper claims in the form of equities are the best the average investor can get?

[metalman]

Re: Gold price manipulation is spelled out to CFTC

Exactly, I expect that most stocks would go down somewhat in the event of a major selloff in the markets.

Is it not what they call systemic market risks?

let's not neglect our own bart's analysis Gold price manipulation/control proof

The gold trading record of the ECB, since 1999



to me correlation is NOT evidence of 'manipulation'. of course ecb sales are going to impact the price. manipulation means intent, and it's not clear to me that intent has been proven either by bart's analysis or the one presented here. the assumption seems to be that gov't wants gold to be cheaper. but why? doesn't more expensive gold improve their balance sheets? also, it bothers me about the gold manipulation crew that gold has moved up and down with silver... is it a gold/silver manipulation scheme then? why? silver was demonetized long before gold. gov't could not care less about the price of silver.