Jim Rogers says he would ‘think twice’ before investing in India

[ccyork]

Rogers may be hot on China; but when he talks about India, the legendary investor gets cold feet. “I am excited about India as a travel destination. For an investment proposition in India, I would think twice,” he said.

http://www.commodityonline.com/news/...10536-3-1.html

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Visit The Jim Rogers Project at http://JimRogersProject.wordpress.com

[GRG55]

Re: Jim Rogers says he would ‘think twice’ before investing in India

http://www.commodityonline.com/news/...10536-3-1.html

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Visit The Jim Rogers Project at http://JimRogersProject.wordpress.com

That's been his line for years. I note that in a recent interview he did acknowledge that he missed the boat on India.

Nevertheless, I'm sure whatever he's in (short banks and brokers, short US$, long Yen and Swissie, long lead, long grains, etc.) he's been right on the macro commodity call this decade.

[phirang]

Re: Jim Rogers says he would ‘think twice’ before investing in India

India is great - if you're indian. I've never personally met a non-indian who made any money there.

[Spartacus]

Re: Jim Rogers says he would ‘think twice’ before investing in India

India is great - if you're indian. I've never personally met a non-indian who made any money there.

The Brits did quite nicely for a time - managing to feed some Brits while killing millions of Desis (as documented by FRED on this very site).

They didn't even get their asses handed to them on their way out, although the door did hit their backside.

Maybe that's why Mega's despondent? delayed psychological Karmic[*] come-uppance?

[*] or other psycho-religio-babble?

[Rajiv]

Re: Jim Rogers says he would ‘think twice’ before investing in India

India is great - if you're indian. I've never personally met a non-indian who made any money there.

I would agree with the sentiments above. However, the problem with China and India's attractiveness can be seen in the pie chart below

See also "Foreign investors veto Fed rescue"

As the Wall Street Journal wrote this weekend, the entire country is facing a "margin call". The US has come to depend on $800bn inflows of cheap foreign capital each year to cover shopping bills. They may have to pay a much stiffer rent.

As of June 2007, foreigners owned $6,007bn of long-term US debt. (Equal to 66pc of the entire US federal debt). The biggest holdings by country are, in billions: Japan (901), China (870), UK (475), Luxembourg (424), Cayman Islands (422), Belgium (369), Ireland (176), Germany (155), Switzerland (140), Bermuda (133), Netherlands (123), Korea (118), Russia (109), Taiwan (107), Canada (106), Brazil (103). Who is jumping ship?

[Guest]

The Brits did quite nicely for a time - managing to feed some Brits while killing millions of Desis (as documented by FRED on this very site).

They didn't even get their asses handed to them on their way out, although the door did hit their backside.

Maybe that's why Mega's despondent? delayed psychological Karmic[*] come-uppance? [*] or other psycho-religio-babble?

Yeah, it was all peace and love in India between the multitude of little kingdoms before the Brits got there. And who do you think did the vast majority of the killing? Google the term "Sepoy".

Meet the new boss, same as the old boss. Nothing new happened that wasn't happening before, they just managed to, amidst the conflict, to bring the industrial revolution to the sub-continent. Or is it cool when the guy burning your village has the same skin color?

[hayekvindicated]

Re: Jim Rogers says he would ‘think twice’ before investing in India

I would agree with the sentiments above. However, the problem with China and India's attractiveness can be seen in the pie chart below

See also "Foreign investors veto Fed rescue"

A contrarian view might be that the US$/Yuan or US$/Yen ratio would change dramatically as China and/or Japan start dumping US Government debt. Therefore, the Yen or the Yuan could appreciate a hell of a lot more than the Rupee ever would beause the imbalances there are much greater.

Another important point is that there is a lot of productive capacity built up in China which can be used to feed domestic consumption once the Yuan appreciates. India's doesn't have that kind of savings pool.

India is an interesting case. The biggest problem in India is the politicians and political parties (both of which are in oversupply) - and the basic political situation is inherently unstable with no mandate for making radical changes and introducing further reforms to reduce economic ineffeciencies. China doesn't have those problems and is a better long term bet on that basis.

The current Indian government is a joke with die-hard Communists part of the ruling coalition. They also banned commodites trading recently which shows that their commitment to free markets are tenuous as best.

Is India like Argentina in the early 20th century? An interesting question to ponder. Im not proud of saying it as I am Indian but the truth cannot be wished away for that reason alone.

[Spartacus]

Re: Jim Rogers says he would ‘think twice’ before investing in India

in the specific case I learned about from FRED, the brits were uniquely to blame.

Yeah, it was all peace and love in India between the multitude of little kingdoms before the Brits got there. And who do you think did the vast majority of the killing? Google the term "Sepoy".

Meet the new boss, same as the old boss. Nothing new happened that wasn't happening before, they just managed to, amidst the conflict, to bring the industrial revolution to the sub-continent. Or is it cool when the guy burning your village has the same skin color?

because similar stuff might have happened if the Brits were not there, the Brits should not be blamed for anything.

Heh ... I'll go on record as congratulating the Brits ... left to their own devices, those people obviously would have done worse crimes than the Brits could even think of.

Hurrah for British decency, restraint, civilization and dignity

[GRG55]

Re: Jim Rogers says he would ‘think twice’ before investing in India

A contrarian view might be that the US$/Yuan or US$/Yen ratio would change dramatically as China and/or Japan start dumping US Government debt. Therefore, the Yen or the Yuan could appreciate a hell of a lot more than the Rupee ever would beause the imbalances there are much greater.

Another important point is that there is a lot of productive capacity built up in China which can be used to feed domestic consumption once the Yuan appreciates. India's doesn't have that kind of savings pool...

Perhaps, but India has what China does not...a substantial base of internal consumers. Which makes it less dependent on the typical Asian mercantilist national economic strategy.

India is an interesting case. The biggest problem in India is the politicians and political parties (both of which are in oversupply) - and the basic political situation is inherently unstable with no mandate for making radical changes and introducing further reforms to reduce economic ineffeciencies. China doesn't have those problems and is a better long term bet on that basis...

Well there's no danger of "too many political parties" in China anytime soon...:rolleyes:

The current Indian government is a joke with die-hard Communists part of the ruling coalition. They also banned commodites trading recently which shows that their commitment to free markets are tenuous as best...

And China is Communist-free is it? :p

And a bastion of free markets as well?

Not bloody likely.

Is India like Argentina in the early 20th century? An interesting question to ponder. Im not proud of saying it as I am Indian but the truth cannot be wished away for that reason alone.

Have you been to Delhi or Mumbai in the past 5 or 6 years? Spent any time in any of the hotel lobbies watching what is going on? Certainly the country faces major challenges, but my observations suggest much greater potential in spite of the ineffective governments and rampant civil service corruption...two mainstays of the nation identity that have been in place since Independence IMO. ;)

[GRG55]

Re: Jim Rogers says he would ‘think twice’ before investing in India

in the specific case I learned about from FRED, the brits were uniquely to blame.



because similar stuff might have happened if the Brits were not there, the Brits should not be blamed for anything.

Heh ... I'll go on record as congratulating the Brits ... left to their own devices, those people obviously would have done worse crimes than the Brits could even think of.

Hurrah for British decency, restraint, civilization and dignity

Let's not forget who brought them the game cricket, complete with tea breaks. Doesn't get more civilized than that...

[Guest]

Re: Jim Rogers says he would ‘think twice’ before investing in India

Let's not forget who brought them the game cricket, complete with tea breaks. Doesn't get more civilized than that...

Sure it gets more civilized. We got baseball, complete with gum-chewing breaks.

[GRG55]

Re: Jim Rogers says he would ‘think twice’ before investing in India

Sure it gets more civilized. We got baseball, complete with gum-chewing breaks.

...not to mention spitballs...:p

[sishya]

Re: Jim Rogers says he would ‘think twice’ before investing in India

I agree with Jim Rogers sentiment here - Not to invest in India for the time being. I am saying this as a someone born there and visit every year.

One chief drawback I see in India is it is a traditionalist society today with strong family and tribal bondings. And traditional societies are inherently selfish. A person will first lookout for his family, then tribe. No common good is served by this modus operandi. Hence the high rate of corruption, caste based politics etc. The fallout in Infrastructure is a direct result of this. In China this form of traditional life is suppressed by Communism and in Western countries - Christianity has altered the inherent selfish nature of people a little bit.

Also the rules of the game in Market will be changed by politicians with no hesitation.India has always had high monetary inflation( printing presses running 24/7 for various problems). Hence the people never trusted Govt and always held land/Gold. One Point - people of India hold the most Gold, many times that of any Govt. including USA.

[touchring]

Re: Jim Rogers says he would ‘think twice’ before investing in India

One chief drawback I see in India is it is a traditionalist society today with strong family and tribal bondings. And traditional societies are inherently selfish. A person will first lookout for his family, then tribe. No common good is served by this modus operandi. Hence the high rate of corruption, caste based politics etc. The fallout in Infrastructure is a direct result of this. In China this form of traditional life is suppressed by Communism and in Western countries - Christianity has altered the inherent selfish nature of people a little bit.

Traditions or feudalism? China had the cultural revolution to wipe out the feudalistic past, almost exterminated religion and social class systems. For India to change, it has to destroy itself first like what China did 40 years ago. India has not gone through this stage, and i'm not sure if an ancient society and traditions thousands of years old can really change without revolution.

[c1ue]

Re: Jim Rogers says he would ‘think twice’ before investing in India

Touchring,

The cultural revolution did kill all the lawyers, and doctors, and what not.

But I would hardly characterize modern China as being free of economic feudalism.

What do you call the Communist party's role in the present economy?

Who controls the permits and owns the land? And sets the laws?

And extracts rent in the form of bribes and other types of corruption?

I think the only difference between China and India is the relative degree of corruption - and that could be simply because the top leaders are literally still the idealistic revolutionaries from 1949.

With Russia as a 30 year preview, it will be interesting to see how China handles the twilight of its political cadre.