"Systemic Financial Crysis...No End to It" - Roubini

[LargoWinch]

Lets have Roubini lay it out for us on bublevision...

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=U6l2XsyO83g

The only reason he has more credibility than me* at this time, is due to his age... not the fact that he has been predicting this mess since ... Fred and Eric well... the start! :p



* disclaimer: After all, I gotta say that I started the thread "where the hell should I put my money? now i.e. "middle of the year asset
re-allocation"... enough said!
(thanks to GRG55 I decided to send him a check to invest in an "upscale restaurant ratings business in BC")

[metalman]

Re: "Systemic Financial Crysis...No End to It" - Roubini

Lets have Roubini lay it out for us on bublevision...

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=U6l2XsyO83g

The only reason he has more credibility than me* at this time, is due to his age... not the fact that he has been predicting this mess since ... Fred and Eric well... the start! :p



* disclaimer: After all, I gotta say that I started the thread "where the hell should I put my money? now i.e. "middle of the year asset
re-allocation"... enough said!
(thanks to GRG55 I decided to send him a check to invest in an "upscale restaurant ratings business in BC")

only problem with Roubini is he's always predicting a bust... such as during the 2003 - 2006 boom.

[jtabeb]

Re: "Systemic Financial Crysis...No End to It" - Roubini

only problem with Roubini is he's always predicting a bust... such as during the 2003 - 2006 boom.

Be careful about casting stones, Itulip acknoledged that they initially missed that the Fed would be so successful at engineering a housing bubble too in the wake of the Tech crash (they did call it early after it occured, though). Unless YOU were calling for the 2003-2006 boom in 2001, I think you could be a bit more humble.

[metalman]

Re: "Systemic Financial Crysis...No End to It" - Roubini

Be careful about casting stones, Itulip acknoledged that they initially missed that the Fed would be so successful at engineering a housing bubble too in the wake of the Tech crash (they did call it early after it occured, though). Unless YOU were calling for the 2003-2006 boom in 2001, I think you could be a bit more humble.

wrong. itulip called for a post 2000 bubble reflation boom engineered by the gov't but not the housing bubble claiming they'd not do that... underestimated the raw stupidity and greed of pols and fire econ interests.

[LargoWinch]

Re: "Systemic Financial Crysis...No End to It" - Roubini

True enough Metal. Roubini has been predicting a crash for a long time (similar to Peter Schiff). As such, this may not be the good advice in the short and even medium term.

Nobody ever want to miss a bubble ala Nasdaq 2000 as long as you know what you are doing and get out near the top, but for Joe Sixpack glued to Madden'09 on the XBOX and the wife watching the latest Bachelor, long-term advice is what they need in my view (in addition to common sense and discipline - but thats another story).

What I like about Roubini is the severity of the situation he predicted early on.

[LargoWinch]

Re: "Systemic Financial Crysis...No End to It" - Roubini

lol... when I write S c h i ff it reads: "Mega's best friend" haha

Schiff
Test
Peter

[jtabeb]

Re: "Systemic Financial Crysis...No End to It" - Roubini

wrong. itulip called for a post 2000 bubble reflation boom engineered by the gov't but not the housing bubble claiming they'd not do that... underestimated the raw stupidity and greed of pols and fire econ interests.

Wrong, Ituilp said that they didn't think it would be a successful reflation because they did not anticipate that there would be an effective securitization vehicle. (I'll find the link so we can end this)

Point is, well, I think you got my point.

[FRED]

Re: "Systemic Financial Crysis...No End to It" - Roubini

Wrong, Ituilp said that they didn't think it would be a successful reflation because they did not anticipate that there would be an effective securitization vehicle. (I'll find the link so we can end this)

Point is, well, I think you got my point.

These debates are easily settled using goggle. A search on "What will pop the internet bubble? yields: What will pop the Internet bubble? - November 1999

"So what happens if the bubble pops? The Fed will of course pump up the cash supply again -- "flood the streets with money" as a previous Fed chairman was fond of saying -- as in late 1998 and the early part of 1999. And the bubble picks up where it left off, growing to the next stage of outrageous proportion. As scary as that is, the alternative is worse. If the new liquidity doesn't re-inflate the markets, we crash hard. The result of that unlikely event is a topic for another day."

January 2001 we attempted to guess the outcome of reflation.

The Post-Bubble Recession has Arrived
Ka-Poom! Theory: How the 1995 - 2000 asset bubble ends in moderate deflation followed by high inflation

As it turned out, it picked up and grew in housing, and the inflation didn't show up until after the reflation from the second bubble in housing. Our error was to think the Fed was going to squash the housing bubble early.

[alcyone]

Re: "Systemic Financial Crysis...No End to It" - Roubini

A few of the more intelligent financial analysts, like Nouriel Roubini have finally begun to appreciate that this is an evolutionary systemic financial crisis and cannot be dealt with in old conventional terms. Its origins are evolutionary, ie. a force that is pushing the earth and its multiple societies to a greater state of integration and harmony. It can best be understood through Kurt Godel's Theorum on the evolution of Metasystems.

"Everything that lives, says the Nobel laureate Prigogine, whether a person, nations or a chemical in solution is always in a state of interaction with its environment". An exchange of energy is always going on. He observed that when "systems", whether chemical or social, (or financial) are undergoing a process of movement to a higher order, that transition is universally accompanied by turbulence. Disorder and disharmony in any "system" is the necessary fertilizer for growth to a higher level. The greater the turbulence and disorder, the more complex the solution, the greater is the jump to an ever- higher poise of balance. This is the way that every living thing re-jiggles itself into new combinations and new levels of development.

When the higher power of Order is coming down, it comes as an absolutely luminous and perfect organization which one can see if he has the vision. When the higher vibration comes down it presses on matter and everything begins to seethe and resist. It is the inertia and resistance which causes the catastrophe. It is not that the catastrophe was foreseen or caused, it is caused by resistance.

That is precisely what is going on with our economic system. The pressure for greater global economic harmony is precisely what is creating the collapse.

The situation may be compared to an individual rushed to the hospital suffering from a systemic collapse which the allopathic physician seeks to cure by treating the symptom with the usual fragmented reductive approach. While they try heroically to stabilize one organ, another one fails because they do not see the organism as a whole.

In their attempt to "save the patient" and hang on to the old system, the Chairman of the Federal Reserve and the Secretary of the Treasury are asking for more extraordinary powers, and more regulation, and in so doing, make the problem exponentially worse.

[LargoWinch]

Re: "Systemic Financial Crysis...No End to It" - Roubini

"That is precisely what is going on with our economic system. The pressure for greater global economic harmony is precisely what is creating the collapse."

Really? I don't really buy this. I think it is a lot more simple.

Decreasing real income for most of the world's population and the ever growing gap between rich and poor coupled with too much debt is causing all of this.

Inflation via M3 growth is destroying the purchasing power of billions of people (growing at 20% per annum according to some estimates). Hence, the rich people who own assets are getting richer far faster, while the rest of us becomes poorer. In essence, "A new road to serfdom" as previously published on iTulip.

I believe that excessive debt must be cleansed and honest money must be restored to fix this mess.

[Starving Steve]

Re: "Systemic Financial Crysis...No End to It" - Roubini

"That is precisely what is going on with our economic system. The pressure for greater global economic harmony is precisely what is creating the collapse."

Really? I don't really buy this. I think it is a lot more simple.

Decreasing real income for most of the world's population and the ever growing gap between rich and poor coupled with too much debt is causing all of this.

Inflation via M3 growth is destroying the purchasing power of billions of people (growing at 20% per annum according to some estimates). Hence, the rich people who own assets are getting richer far faster, while the rest of us becomes poorer. In essence, "A new road to serfdom" as previously published on iTulip.

I believe that excessive debt must be cleansed and honest money must be restored to fix this mess.

This business of central bankers all conspiring to hold interest rates down to 2% or less--- Japan 0.5%--- is making it impossible to live, to save, and to retire. And then these central bankers bail-out the banks with this cheap money, or they allow their governments to over-spend because the cheap money makes the over-spending financeable.

This is not a higher order of re-jigging of the social order. This is economic fascism where the governments and the banks prey on the poor. The savers are played for suckers.

So what do people talk about in Canada or in the US? And sadly, the answer is not central bank policy, not the low interest rates. The agenda on the talk-shows is: Kyoto Accord, global warming, Al Gore, carbon tax, aboriginal rights, gay marriage, the glass ceiling, everything BUT central bank policy.

[GRG55]

Re: "Systemic Financial Crysis...No End to It" - Roubini

..."Everything that lives, says the Nobel laureate Prigogine, whether a person, nations or a chemical in solution is always in a state of interaction with its environment". An exchange of energy is always going on. He observed that when "systems", whether chemical or social, (or financial) are undergoing a process of movement to a higher order, that transition is universally accompanied by turbulence. Disorder and disharmony in any "system" is the necessary fertilizer for growth to a higher level. The greater the turbulence and disorder, the more complex the solution, the greater is the jump to an ever- higher poise of balance. This is the way that every living thing re-jiggles itself into new combinations and new levels of development...

...That is precisely what is going on with our economic system. The pressure for greater global economic harmony is precisely what is creating the collapse...

Parts of this read like a contradiction of the 2nd Law of Thermodynamics. "Disorder and disharmony in any system" is the consequence of the inexorable effects of entropy.

I am not sure I really understand what you are saying. There would not appear to be any spontaneous "pressure for greater global economic harmony"; it seems to take considerable "energy" to maintain any headway in this respect, and the moment that effort and energy is withdrawn, our old nemesis entropy takes over and things begin to regress. [The Doha round of WTO negotiations is but one illustration of this]

...So what do people talk about in Canada or in the US? And sadly, the answer is not central bank policy, not the low interest rates. The agenda on the talk-shows is: Kyoto Accord, global warming, Al Gore, carbon tax, aboriginal rights, gay marriage, the glass ceiling, everything BUT central bank policy.

Since you appear to be spending some time in Canada that means you have the opportunity to watch Canadian socialist television, otherwise known as the Cee-Bit-Chee. Since the retirement of Pierre Trudeau, the CBC has taken on the self-appointed role of explaining to Canadians each and every deficiency of their country, present and historical. Whether it's the country's Christian roots giving offense to our modern multi-cultural industry, Canadians in the RAF carpet bombing Nazi Germany in 1944 [and killing civilians], an illegal immigrant with a criminal record not being given enough Legal Aid to launch a Human Rights case, or the festering native schools legacy, we can trust Canadian socialist television to reliably pick at the national scabs each and every night during prime time.

No wonder we like winter so much...the CBC periodically interrupts their usual programming to bring us relief in the form of Hockey Night in Canada [next season without the classic theme music apparently] :rolleyes:

[Starving Steve]

Re: "Systemic Financial Crysis...No End to It" - Roubini

Parts of this read like a contradiction of the 2nd Law of Thermodynamics. "Disorder and disharmony in any system" is the consequence of the inexorable effects of entropy.

I am not sure I really understand what you are saying. There would not appear to be any spontaneous "pressure for greater global economic harmony"; it seems to take considerable "energy" to maintain any headway in this respect, and the moment that effort and energy is withdrawn, our old nemesis entropy takes over and things begin to regress. [The Doha round of WTO negotiations is but one illustration of this]



Since you appear to be spending some time in Canada that means you have the opportunity to watch Canadian socialist television, otherwise known as the Cee-Bit-Chee. Since the retirement of Pierre Trudeau, the CBC has taken on the self-appointed role of explaining to Canadians each and every deficiency of their country, present and historical. Whether it's the country's Christian roots giving offense to our modern multi-cultural industry, Canadians in the RAF carpet bombing Nazi Germany in 1944 [and killing civilians], an illegal immigrant with a criminal record not being given enough Legal Aid to launch a Human Rights case, or the festering native schools legacy, we can trust Canadian socialist television to reliably pick at the national scabs each and every night during prime time.

No wonder we like winter so much...the CBC periodically interrupts their usual programming to bring us relief in the form of Hockey Night in Canada [next season without the classic theme music apparently] :rolleyes:

Thank God for Hockey Night in Canada, eh?

Seriously, Canada should have some scabs pulled. But the scabs that I would pull (i.e, the issues that I have with Canada) are the federal govn't restricting banking competition, the sweet deal for the big five federally chartered banks, the arrogance of the big five chartered banks, the low interest rates set by the Bank of Canada, the endless tax accounting as a way of life in Canada, the taxes upon taxes, the absurd number of taxes, and the level of taxation.

With British Columbia the scabs that should be pulled are: the ferry fees, the speed traps, the horse-and-buggy speed limits, the eco-frauds who have the ear of the provincial govn't, the provincial energy plan which excludes nuclear power and excludes drilling for oil, the new carbon tax, and the level of provincial taxes, the outrageous provincial auto insurance costs, and the lack of choice--- ONE CHOICE ONLY--- in auto insurance.

Why aren't people raising hell in Canada, especially in B.C?

[LargoWinch]

Re: "Systemic Financial Crysis...No End to It" - Roubini

... the endless tax accounting as a way of life in Canada, the taxes upon taxes, the absurd number of taxes, and the level of taxation.

That is so true, so funny and so sad.

Why aren't people raising hell in Canada?

So far GRG55, myself and Mike Myers are doing our best - one day at a time.

The problem is that in Canada people still live in lalaland as we are riding the commodities boom. Meanwhile, we have a serious inflation problem (especially since Oct. 07 - when the loonie began its unofficial peg to the USD) and most of the populace cannot envision (must less plan) the wreckage created by our biggest trading partner going bankrupt.

[GRG55]

Re: "Systemic Financial Crysis...No End to It" - Roubini

Thank God for Hockey Night in Canada, eh?

Seriously, Canada should have some scabs pulled. But the scabs that I would pull (i.e, the issues that I have with Canada) are the federal govn't restricting banking competition, the sweet deal for the big five federally chartered banks, the arrogance of the big five chartered banks, the low interest rates set by the Bank of Canada, the endless tax accounting as a way of life in Canada, the taxes upon taxes, the absurd number of taxes, and the level of taxation.

With British Columbia the scabs that should be pulled are: the ferry fees, the speed traps, the horse-and-buggy speed limits, the eco-frauds who have the ear of the provincial govn't, the provincial energy plan which excludes nuclear power and excludes drilling for oil, the new carbon tax, and the level of provincial taxes, the outrageous provincial auto insurance costs, and the lack of choice--- ONE CHOICE ONLY--- in auto insurance.

Why aren't people raising hell in Canada, especially in B.C?

Steve: Damned if I know...

If you are from California, then my home province of B.C. will seem very familiar. Especially the eco-overtone governing how anything may be "allowed" to be done. For example, some think the soft-wood forest industry in B.C. is being killed off by the pine beetle and the imploding US housing market. In actual fact it entered the infirmary many years ago with the Canadian government's gutless and completely ineffective response to the US Commerce Dept NAFTA meddling, and the former Provincial NDP government's Forest Practices Code, which swung the pendulum from one idiotic extreme clear across the arc to the other side overnight. Try to run a business in those circumstances.

We'll just stay away from the B.C. Ferries issue [don't get me started :mad:], as I have to use it more than I would prefer as my mother-in-law still lives on the Island. Thank gawd one can still find a decent beer at Mount Newton Crossroad's Prairie Inn.

The province is now a microcosm of North American FIRE economy society; a small group of "haves" with most of the income/wealth, concentrated in the urban Lower Mainland and Victoria, and a vast group of "have-nots" throughout the devastated communities of the North Coast and much of the interior [the only exception being the petroleum/coal rich areas near the Alberta border]. Hell, pretty well everyone else has been reduced to flipping/selling real estate like our good friend Vancouvergoinup. Go to the Shuswap and mostly one sees Alberta plates on the expensive cars and SUVs parked in the marina condo developments that have popped up lakeside.

As for nuclear power, it wouldn't matter if they allowed it. You'll not be able to get any of it transmitted to where the consumers live, so why bother :

From the South Delta Leader:

Power lines killing our children, say Tsawwassen moms
By Kristine Thiessen - South Delta Leader

Published: July 04, 2008 1:00 PM
Updated: July 04, 2008 2:58 PM



A newly formed group against a power line upgrade in Tsawwassen is collecting residents' $100 climate action dividend cheques to fight the project.

Mothers Against Power Poles held a press conference on 16th Ave. near 53 A St. on Friday (July 4) in front of one of the sites where a new steel pole will be erected as part of a BC Transmission Corporation upgrade.

"The mothers in Tsawwassen are standing united to fight the 230 kilovolt power poles that are going up, they're right behind me here, in the middle of Tsawwassen," said MAPP spokesperson Heather Colls Wahlberg.

In one night Colls Wahlberg said $1,000 in cheques were donated to MAPP.

"I have cheques here from people in Tsawwassen, we are using this money to stop the destruction of our town and to stop the killing of our children," she said.

The few dozen people in attendance wore pink and blue masks over their mouths and noses and said residents will have to wear these masks if the steel poles are not buried.

"The children and the people of Tsawwassen are wearing masks right now because we are afraid of the corona ionization effect, whereby carcinogenic particulates are attracted to the power lines like magnets and people breathe in these carcinogens," said Colls Wahlberg.

One mom and dad at the protest said they will consider homeschooling their son if the lines are strung over South Delta Secondary School grounds as planned.

John Finkle said the couple will not send their 13-year-old son into harms way. More...

[Mothers Against Power Poles...Only in B.C...

I wonder if any of these Moms and their kids use electricity in their homes? While wearing dust masks...:rolleyes:]