tick tick National City WaMu and then..WACHOVIA??

[grapejelly]

Market is betting that Nat City and WaMu are dead ducks...prolly inside of a week or two...

I bet Wachovia is next...that will be BIG

--R.

[Mega]

Re: tick tick National City WaMu and then..WACHOVIA??

.................but i can't happen:-
http://www.usatoday.com/money/indust...ustomers_N.htm
Mike

[moonshot]

Re: tick tick National City WaMu and then..WACHOVIA??

.................but i can't happen:-
http://www.usatoday.com/money/indust...ustomers_N.htm
Mike

From the link Mike provided:

Tengeri said he was hopeful about getting the remainder of his life savings from the bank. . .

"I'm keeping my fingers crossed," he said. "I have full trust in the U.S. government. It may take a little time but I'm not worried."

When that guy starts to buy gold, it's time to sell.

[Slimprofits]

Re: tick tick National City WaMu and then..WACHOVIA??

WaMu slid $1.30, or 30 percent, to $3.45 at 12:59 p.m., and National City dropped $1.11, or 25 percent, to $3.31 in New York Stock Exchange composite trading. First Horizon National Corp., Tennessee's largest bank, declined 22 percent, while Regions Financial Corp., Alabama's biggest, fell 14 percent.

Bloomberg.com

"In recent weeks, the share prices of some regional banks, like the BankUnited Financial Corporation, in Florida, and the Downey Financial Corporation, in California, have stumbled hard amid concern about their financial health."

NewYorkTimes.com

Was this issued as a press release or was it a response to a question posed by a reporter?

National City Corp. said on Monday that it's experiencing no unusual activity by depositors or creditors as the regional bank tried to calm investors. At the end of last week, the bank said it had more than $12 billion of excess short-term liquidity. After raising $7 billion in new capital earlier this year, National City has one of the highest Tier 1 regulatory capital ratios among large banks, the company added.

Marketwatch.com

[zoog]

Re: tick tick National City WaMu and then..WACHOVIA??

As noted on minyanville:

Speaking of regional banks; National City (NCC) shareholders are not assuaged by the company announcing that "all is well". Here's a good investing rule of thumb: When all is, in fact, well at a company it's unnecessary to halt trading to announce that fact. The more somebody says "trust me" the faster you should run away with your hand on your wallet.

[rj1]

Re: tick tick National City WaMu and then..WACHOVIA??

Market is betting that Nat City and WaMu are dead ducks...prolly inside of a week or two...

I bet Wachovia is next...that will be BIG

--R.

I hope not, my money is in Wachovia. It's well under the FDIC limit, but I just don't feel like having to deal with it.

[ASH]

Re: tick tick National City WaMu and then..WACHOVIA??

Does anyone have an opinion about the usefulness of Bankrate.com?

I found the following "capitalization, asset quality, earnings, and liquidity" (CAEL) ratings there:

U.S. Bank 2
Wells Fargo 2
Capital One 3
Citibank 3
Bank of America 4
E*Trade Bank 4
Wachovia Bank 4
Washington Mutual 5

Where:
1 = Superior
2 = Sound
3 = Performing
4 = Below Peer Group
5 = Lowest Rated

Also, for those inclined to panic, the FDIC says they are covering about $3 trillion of deposits with $49 billion of reserves. They estimate they are going to pay out between $4 - $8 billion to Indymac customers (i.e. 10% or more of their reserves), so this begs the question as to what might happen if a few larger banks fail.

If one is concerned about Wachovia, then should one also be concerned about Bank of America? Or is the devil in the details?

[swgprop]

Re: tick tick National City WaMu and then..WACHOVIA??

I'm with GrapeJelly, not sure Wachovia is next to go down, but convinced their demise is inevitable. Happily watching my puts skyrocket. The acquisition of Golden West was their death knell.

As a former employee (subsidiary) I say good riddance. Not that WB is worse than any other mega-entity - the larger they are the stupider they become.

That said, as a taxpayer I will be paying for their sins as well as the sins of their ilk. No such thing as a government bailout, they are us. Correction: they are they and we the little people are fucked.

[LargoWinch]

Re: tick tick National City WaMu and then..WACHOVIA??

I was under the impression Ash that the Fed would simply print the money and that the FDIC is not really "funded". Am I missing something?

Hence, the inflationnary result of the FDIC: "we can guarantee your $100K but not its purchasing power" (gotta buy PMs for that).

[ASH]

Re: tick tick National City WaMu and then..WACHOVIA??

I was under the impression Ash that the Fed would simply print the money and that the FDIC is not really "funded". Am I missing something?

Hence, the inflationnary result of the FDIC: "we can guarantee your $100K but not its purchasing power" (gotta buy PMs for that).

I, myself, am not particularly sophisticated about this point. However, I gather that the FDIC is funded by fees collected from the banks whose deposits it insures. This is what the FDIC says about itself:

The FDIC receives no Congressional appropriations – it is funded by premiums that banks and thrift institutions pay for deposit insurance coverage and from earnings on investments in U.S. Treasury securities. With an insurance fund totaling more than $49 billion, the FDIC insures more than $3 trillion of deposits in U.S. banks and thrifts – deposits in virtually every bank and thrift in the country.

I don't think we get to money-printing until AFTER the FDIC burns through its reserves.

Also, I gather that presently things don't look as bad as the S&L crisis of the 1980's. ... Yet.

-- Andrew

[photoncounter]

Re: tick tick National City WaMu and then..WACHOVIA??

http://www.reuters.com/article/newsO...dChannel=10216

More than 300 banks could fail in the next three years, said RBC Capital Markets analyst Gerard Cassidy, who had in February estimated no more than 150.

"You have to look at companies with the greatest exposure to the highest-risk assets, which include construction loans and exotic mortgages," Cassidy said. "The final nail in the coffin for any depository institution would be a funding crisis where it is unable to gather deposits at reasonable cost, or wholesale funding markets are cut off."

The Federal Deposit Insurance Corp (FDIC) seized IndyMac on Friday after a bank run in which panicked customers withdrew more than $1.3 billion of deposits in 11 business days.

As of March 31, the FDIC had put 90 banking institutions with $26.3 billion of assets on its "problem list." This excluded IndyMac, which alone had about $32 billion of assets, and close to $19 billion of deposits.

Cassidy called the probability of failure "very high" if a bank's nonperforming assets exceed the sum of tangible equity plus reserves for loan losses.
In a report on July 13, Richard Bove, a bank analyst at Ladenburg Thalmann & Co, said a "danger zone" is where nonperforming assets, including loans at least 90 days past due, exceeded 40 percent of common equity plus reserves.

Citing FDIC data as of March 31, Bove said that IndyMac had been at the greatest risk among more than 100 of the largest U.S. lenders, with a 146.2 percent ratio.

BankUnited Financial Corp of Coral Gables, Florida, was among lenders high on Bove's list.

[tojaktoty]

Re: tick tick National City WaMu and then..WACHOVIA??

From the link Mike provided:
Quote:
Tengeri said he was hopeful about getting the remainder of his life savings from the bank. . .

"I'm keeping my fingers crossed," he said. "I have full trust in the U.S. government. It may take a little time but I'm not worried."

From the link Mike provided:
When that guy starts to buy gold, it's time to sell.

I think you mean when that guy starts to hype gold it is time to sell.

He could be a huge closet gold bug :eek:

Wachovia.. good riddance.

[Jim Nickerson]

Re: tick tick National City WaMu and then..WACHOVIA??

Does anyone have an opinion about the usefulness of Bankrate.com?

I found the following "capitalization, asset quality, earnings, and liquidity" (CAEL) ratings there:

U.S. Bank 2
Wells Fargo 2
Capital One 3
Citibank 3
Bank of America 4
E*Trade Bank 4
Wachovia Bank 4
Washington Mutual 5

Where:
1 = Superior
2 = Sound
3 = Performing
4 = Below Peer Group
5 = Lowest Rated

Also, for those inclined to panic, the FDIC says they are covering about $3 trillion of deposits with $49 billion of reserves. They estimate they are going to pay out between $4 - $8 billion to Indymac customers (i.e. 10% or more of their reserves), so this begs the question as to what might happen if a few larger banks fail.

If one is concerned about Wachovia, then should one also be concerned about Bank of America? Or is the devil in the details?

http://www.marketwatch.com/news/stor...5C6556FEB3F%7D

LOS ANGELES (MarketWatch) -- Shares of Washington Mutual Inc. soared Monday evening after the bank said its liquidity position is on solid ground, and E-Trade Financial Corp. shares climbed nearly 9% following the company's plan to sell its Canadian unit.



But a profit warning from Kimberly-Clark Corp. pulled the household products maker's shares lower.

Washington Mutual (WM: 3.23, -1.72, -34.7%) leaped 8.4% to $3.50 and ranked among Nasdaq's list of the 10 most actively traded shares. The share-price surge came after the company said it has excess liquidity of more than $40 billion, and that it "significantly exceeds" mandated capital levels for depository institutions.

Do you think WaMu is lying or is the bankrate rating possibly spurious?

[kingcopper]

Re: tick tick National City WaMu and then..WACHOVIA??

http://www.marketwatch.com/news/stor...5C6556FEB3F%7D



Do you think WaMu is lying or is the bankrate rating possibly spurious?

maybe both are kinda telling the truth? WaMu is probably leasing most of the 40 billion and would be at the coffins door without this lease?:confused:

[c1ue]

Re: tick tick National City WaMu and then..WACHOVIA??

You heard it here first:

Looks like my major depository bank failure prediction is going to come true.

Not Indy, but Wachovia...

http://biz.yahoo.com/ap/080715/banks.html

Oppenheimer Co. analyst Meredith Whitney added to the concerns in downgrading Wachovia, citing a "very real scenario" of declining assets and rising losses. Whitney is closely followed after a series of sharp calls during the credit crisis about troubles at other banks, including Citigroup.

As for WaMu - the amount of their assets isn't the issue.

It is the amount of their liabilities. Mortgages which were counted as assets in 2005 are now becoming major liabilities.

$40B of liquidity doesn't necessarily hold up against their $756B mortgage portfolio - or put another way, 5% losses wipes out even their stated liquidity.

http://www.wikinvest.com/stock/Washington_Mutual_(WM)

And home prices haven't stopped falling yet.