Jim Rogers tells Shanghai investment club to avoid the dollar ‘at all costs’

[ccyork]

Jim Rogers tells Shanghai investment club to avoid the dollar ‘at all costs’

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?p...5HU&refer=home

Avoid the dollar “at all costs,” Rogers said at the opening of an investment club in Shanghai today. “Agricultural prices have much higher to go over the next decade. We have a shortage of everything including seeds.”

-- ccyork

The Jim Rogers Project - http://jimrogersproject.wordpress.com/

[Starving Steve]

Re: Jim Rogers tells Shanghai investment club to avoid the dollar ‘at all costs’

Jim Rogers tells Shanghai investment club to avoid the dollar ‘at all costs’

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?p...5HU&refer=home

-- ccyork

The Jim Rogers Project - http://jimrogersproject.wordpress.com/

It is hard to make a bullish case for the dollar, especially with the kind of leadership the US has at the moment at the US Treasury, in Congress, in the White House, and at the Federal Reserve Bank. Perhaps the only bullish case for the dollar that can be made is that everyone is so bearish on it.

But without an energy plan, without power plants, without energy development, without savings, without investments, without planning, and without leadership, how can the US dollar go up?

When you listen to Obama, you hear nothing about any energy plan except for more of the same: solar panels, windmills, butterflys, and daisys. Yes, Obama wants fuel efficiency standards, but Detroit's big three automakers are already on death's door, so the market will impose fuel efficiency standards without government mandate.

And the Republicans finally got serious about verbalizing part of an energy plan. But the Republicans had eight years to do this, and they just got serious about an energy plan in their last 120 days in office.

Neither candidate wants to raise interest rates. Neither candidate wants to raise taxes. Neither candidate wants to cut much in the way of spending. So, what is the bullish case for the US dollar--- other than there is no bullish case and everyone is so bearish?

On this trade, I will remain dollar bearish at least until the November election and possibly longer than that. I have discounted contrary analysis and have thrown caution to the wind.

[moonshot]

Re: Jim Rogers tells Shanghai investment club to avoid the dollar ‘at all costs’

The problem for the government and the Fed is that this has become a one-way trade. This reduces the time available to the Fed to allow the banks to heal (credit market to return, banks to recapitalize, etc.). They need to introduce some uncertainty - maybe a surprise rate hike along with some intervention in the currency market.

Anyone else think this is possible or perhaps likely?

[GRG55]

Re: Jim Rogers tells Shanghai investment club to avoid the dollar ‘at all costs’

The problem for the government and the Fed is that this has become a one-way trade. This reduces the time available to the Fed to allow the banks to heal (credit market to return, banks to recapitalize, etc.). They need to introduce some uncertainty - maybe a surprise rate hike along with some intervention in the currency market.

Anyone else think this is possible or perhaps likely?

Intervention in the currency market? When have the Central Banks not intervened and manipulated the currency markets for their own purposes?

Surprise rate hike? I don't expect the Fed to do anything that is surprise to anyone. Every move will continue to be telegraphed well in advance to the markets.

[c1ue]

Re: Jim Rogers tells Shanghai investment club to avoid the dollar ‘at all costs’

Check out the post talking about 'optimum position': a position which cannot be improved by anything.

That's where we're at.

Energy policies certainly haven't been ideal, but it is stupid to lay the blame on any one person or even party.

The American lifestyle for the past 40 years has been predicated on cheap gas.

The warning shot in 1974 was brushed off as a one time phenomenon, when in reality it was the American economy riding the WWII then fiat currency wave which will never be repeated.

The good news? Even with food prices rising, it doesn't cost more than $10000/year to feed a family of 4.

This means housing just needs to correct to 35% of peak prices to compensate - assuming interest rates rise as normal during net credit loss environment. If interest rates somehow don't, AND we don't get something nasty in the way of currency purchase power, then housing only needs to correct 50% from peak.

So we're only less than halfway there...

[phirang]

Re: Jim Rogers tells Shanghai investment club to avoid the dollar ‘at all costs’

The problem for the government and the Fed is that this has become a one-way trade. This reduces the time available to the Fed to allow the banks to heal (credit market to return, banks to recapitalize, etc.). They need to introduce some uncertainty - maybe a surprise rate hike along with some intervention in the currency market.

Anyone else think this is possible or perhaps likely?

There's plenty of uncertainty: should I set a strike price for a put at 5 or 10?

:rolleyes: