WWIII: Iran test-fires more missiles in Persian Gulf

[Sapiens]

Re: WWIII: Iran test-fires more missiles in Persian Gulf

Good post ASH.

But think bigger, larger, huge! This is not about the ME like it was pointed out to you, this is about SS Earth. We are in the mother of all commercial wars, except no one other than those at the top seem to know it.

So yes, this is about WW III, although you cannot or may not fathom it.

[Andreuccio]

Re: WWIII: Iran test-fires more missiles in Persian Gulf

Ash, as we say here in the UK, I was pulling your leg. Cool man.

You see! You need a disclaimer for stupid comments, too.









Disclaimer: The stupid thing you just read by Andreuccio is meant only in jest. It means the opposite of what is written. Please don't flame me unless you actually agree with what I appear to be saying.

[LargoWinch]

Re: WWIII: Iran test-fires more missiles in Persian Gulf

Good point!

I already started and I am currently enjoying my Weihenstephaner and my little finger tells me that more are coming...


PS:
Ash and Chris; I most appreciate your comments and look forward to trade words on other issues since I just join "iTulip" this week (I have been a passive reader of this great site for the past 6 months...).

Now if Mega could be just as interactive as you two!

[ASH]

Re: WWIII: Iran test-fires more missiles in Persian Gulf

Good point!

I already started and I am currently enjoying my Weihenstephaner and my little finger tells me that more are coming...


PS:
Ash and Chris; I most appreciate your comments and look forward to trade words on other issues since I just join "iTulip" this week (I have been a passive reader of this great site for the past 6 months...).

Now if Mega could be just as interactive as you two!

Thanks Largo -- have a good weekend! As sapiens just posted Indymac went bust late on Friday, so I'm sure there will be a lot to talk about next week. Cheers.

[c1ue]

Re: WWIII: Iran test-fires more missiles in Persian Gulf

The European dimension starts with the idea that you can divert attention by starting a war against the Chechen's and to build up the case, someone gets the idea of blowing up a few buildings in Russia. Problem was, a journalist came across someone that described very clearly that the explosives left in the basement of a block of apartments full of innocent Russian citizens were Russian Army equipment .... just before one of the explosions.

Time passes and the journalist is now more than one and they all keep doggedly following the story to the point where, suddenly the journalists start to disappear in strange circumstances. The story surfaces and the finger of suspicion points directly at the Kremlin. That part finishes with a dissident being poisoned by the use of Polonium, a substance only available to the Russian Government. The UK objects to the murder of someone on British soil and by now all sorts of things have ramped up.



The Russians have:

• re-introduced regular bomber intrusions into British air space.
• made it clear that they now dislike normal large company and institutional ownership of Russian assets, using every trick in the book to slide foreign ownership of Russian industry back into Kremlin hands.
• Apparently, so we are told just a week or so ago, have flooded the UK with what are euphemistically described as "spys".

So, right now, we have a ramped up "situation" in the middle East that might lead to a possible local war between Israel and Iran into which the US will almost certainly get drawn. and another rising "little difficulty" with Russia and the siting of rockets and radars in Europe.

Wow, somebody has been reading US MSM viewpoints on Russia.

I don't know if the Moscow apartment bombings were indeed a Reichstag fire, but I have yet to see statues of Putin going up anywhere.

For that matter, why is a CIA plot to let terrorists fly planes into the World Trade Center a tin foil hat deal, but really angry Chechens something different? On the one hand, Russia is so internally secure. On the other hand, it is corrupt and nepotistic. Is it so impossible to believe that Russian Army explosives were stolen or bought?

For all the talk about suppressed media - the chess champion dude is still traipsing around.

And the bombers? Well, what about the B1 & B2 patrols? We never hear about those.

And then the company thing - sure, what happened to Yukos sucks. But then again, it was stolen to begin with. For every Khodorkovsky, there is an Abramovitch. The oligarchs just got tutored in the difference between economic and sovereign power.

You forget - Russia is just looking to make its was in reasonable security and prosperity in conjunction with Europe. Due to US maneuvering, Russia is now being forced to bundle with China as well.

Not saying everything there is peachy, but I am saying that more experience on the ground usually gives more realistic understanding of the situation.

[Chris Coles]

Re: WWIII: Iran test-fires more missiles in Persian Gulf

Wow, somebody has been reading US MSM viewpoints on Russia.

Not so, we have the Times, our "paper of record", the BBC and also the excellent news service on Channel 4 TV. For example:

July 11, 2008


Moscow names British diplomat Chris Bowers as spy

http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/new...MC-Bltn=KNSH89

Tests show US shield 'not needed'

http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/world/europe/7501498.stm

The United States warns Iran to stop ballistic missile development

http://www.channel4.com/news/article...opment/2325367

[c1ue]

Re: WWIII: Iran test-fires more missiles in Persian Gulf

Yes, lovely spat the UK is having with Russia.

Now that all the high end homes were bought by Russia oligarchs, and the market is starting to crater, no more need to pander.

I think even the recently instituted visa waiver for Russians is going to be repealed.

[Verrocchio]

Re: WWIII: Iran test-fires more missiles in Persian Gulf

... a lot to talk about next week.

This has been an interesting thread. Perhaps there is more to talk about... The W has given Israel an amber light to "attack Iran’s main nuclear sites with long-range bombing sorties," according to an article that appeared in today's Sunday Times.

“Amber means get on with your preparations, stand by for immediate attack and tell us when you’re ready,” the official said. But the Israelis have also been told that they can expect no help from American forces and will not be able to use US military bases in Iraq for logistical support.





For an extended discussion of some of the issues that have been raised in this thread, you may want to read Preparing the Battlefield: The Bush Administration steps up its secret moves against Iran by Seymour Hersh (New Yorker) .

[LargoWinch]

Re: WWIII: Iran test-fires more missiles in Persian Gulf

We are all aware of the US military capabilities.

However, I do not think Israel or even the US can destroy Iran's nuclear facilities, which I understand are "several kilometers" underground. I mean, even bunker buster bombs or the like won't do the job.

Seems like a stupid idea to me: kicking a bees' nest with no hope of collecting honey...

[ASH]

Re: WWIII: Iran test-fires more missiles in Persian Gulf

However, I do not think Israel or even the US can destroy Iran's nuclear facilities, which I understand are "several kilometers" underground.

This link has some information on the main enrichment facility at Natanz, which is the facility that Israel and the United States are most concerned about.

The National Council of Resistance of Iran -- an exile group -- revealed the existence of a secret nuclear facility at Natanz at a press conference in 2002. The International Atomic Energy Agency has visited the site more than once since its existence was revealed, and the NCRI turned out to be correct about the nature of the facility.

The NCRI claims that the Fuel Enrichment Plant (FEP) complex is built 8 meters-deep into the ground and protected by a concrete wall 2.5 meters thick, itself protected by another concrete wall. The construction of the enrichment complex was watched by satellites, and it is believed that by mid-2004 the Natanz centrifuge facility was hardened with a roof of several meters of reinforced concrete and buried under a layer of earth some 75 feet deep.

So, we're talking more like 25-30 meters or soil plus a thick concrete roof, rather than 1 km. Even so, that's at the outside range of what a conventional bunker-buster bomb can do. Supposedly, the new massive ordnance penetrator (MOP) can penetrate up to 200 feet of soil (60 meters) before punching through a concrete roof but some analysts say this soil penetration estimate is optimistic. More importantly, the MOP is too big for tactical aircraft to carry, and I don't think Israel has any strategic bombers. To the best of my knowledge, the only bunker-buster that Israel has is the GBU-28, which should be able to penetrate 30 meters of soil and 6 meters of concrete.

So... my guess is that Israel thinks it can get the job done with the GBU-28, and Uncle Sam is planning to try the MOP later if Israel doesn't succeed.

[touchring]

Re: WWIII: Iran test-fires more missiles in Persian Gulf

So it would seem that a modern day underground bunker would be impregnable by conventional ordnance. What's the next level? As powerful or even more powerful than an atomic bomb, but non-nuclear? Something near science fiction?

A human created 10 ton tungsten projectile, hurled into space by rockets and comes hurtling down at 30,000 miles per hour.

2012 is not far away? :eek:

[LargoWinch]

Re: WWIII: Iran test-fires more missiles in Persian Gulf

Ash, I think they would need to deliver something of this magnitude inside or close to...

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KhAydMLv6AA

That should do the trick no?

The real problem is that how can you be certain the stuff is there and has not been spread around all over the place? Like in secret mountain caves hideout or something?

I think they could delay the process, but not prevent it.

Heck, Iran is on North Korea's Xmas gift list so...

[GRG55]

Re: WWIII: Iran test-fires more missiles in Persian Gulf

This has been an interesting thread. Perhaps there is more to talk about... The W has given Israel an amber light to "attack Iran’s main nuclear sites with long-range bombing sorties," according to an article that appeared in today's Sunday Times.

“Amber means get on with your preparations, stand by for immediate attack and tell us when you’re ready,” the official said. But the Israelis have also been told that they can expect no help from American forces and will not be able to use US military bases in Iraq for logistical support.





For an extended discussion of some of the issues that have been raised in this thread, you may want to read Preparing the Battlefield: The Bush Administration steps up its secret moves against Iran by Seymour Hersh (New Yorker) .

Once again I ask, which Arab nation(s) is/are going to give permission for the Israeli Air Force to use its airspace to get at Iran? When they bombed the Osirak reactor in 1981 they had permission from Saudi Arabia to use its airspace. I don't see the motivation for any of Jordan, Syria, Iraq, or Saudi Arabia to provide that now.

If there is an Israeli bombing of any Iran nuclear facility [and I very much doubt there will be], it will be the most telegraphed and talked about "secret" bombing in the history of air warfare, non?

[ASH]

Re: WWIII: Iran test-fires more missiles in Persian Gulf

If there is an Israeli bombing of any Iran nuclear facility [and I very much doubt there will be], it will be the most telegraphed and talked about "secret" bombing in the history of air warfare, non?

I trust your judgment on the Middle East.

I suppose I had assumed that Israel would violate Jordanian airspace and fly over Iraq with American clearance. However, I know exactly zero about Jordanian air defense capabilities, so I'm unable to assess whether this scenario is realistic or not. You would have a better idea as to whether Israel would risk its relations with Jordan.

I have a hard time believing that the American government thinks now is an auspicious time to precipitate a fresh crisis in the Middle East, given the price of oil and the fear in the markets. Still, in the back of my mind, there is the thought that Bush may want to define his legacy as having dealt with the "Axis of Evil". Since negotiations are underway with North Korea, he might indeed be tempted to bomb Iran (or greenlight an Israeli operation), before he leaves office.

That said, I'm pretty sure that there's a "good cop/bad cop" routine going on, and that the bad cops are desperately hoping to be credible enough as a threat for the good cops to prevail.

The real problem is that how can you be certain the stuff is there and has not been spread around all over the place? Like in secret mountain caves hideout or something?

I think they could delay the process, but not prevent it.

Quite so.

I think we can be pretty sure that the centrifuges for large-scale production are there. However, it is generally believed that the Iranians have smaller-scale enrichment facilities elsewhere.

If the US or Israel bomb the known Iranian nuclear facilities, they will only get some of the equipment, and they will merely delay the Iranian nuclear program, just as you say. It doesn't sound like a long-term strategy to me.

[c1ue]

Re: WWIII: Iran test-fires more missiles in Persian Gulf

The funny thing about this whole mess is that somehow Iran is bad as a nuclear power, but Pakistan and India are good as nuclear powers.

I know who I'd vote as most likely to pull the trigger.