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Re: Do we have an oil bubble?
Here you go C1ue -
This one's all for you. It appears your long held (18 months, and counting) thesis that China's energy consumption would / must "crash" post Olympics is about to become an orphan to unfolding actual demand trends. 5.7% annual demand growth, now estimated for 2009, raised up a tick from last months growth estimates. Even the global consumption growth estimate has ticked up year on year, to 1.1% estimated in 2009 from 0.9% this year.
Who could have known? :rolleyes:
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IEA Increases Its Global Oil Demand Forecast for 2009 (Update1)
By Grant Smith
Aug. 12 (Bloomberg) -- The International Energy Agency, an adviser to 27 nations, raised its forecast for global oil demand next year and said it expects Chinese oil consumption to rise after the Olympic Games.
The IEA increased its forecast by 70,000 barrels to 87.8 million barrels a day, the Paris-based agency said today in its monthly report. Last week's pipeline explosion in Turkey may cut output from Azerbaijan by 30 percent this quarter and supplies are further threatened by military action in Georgia.
"We're still looking at a pretty buoyant picture in 2008, 2009 in China,'' David Fyfe, the IEA's supply analyst, said in a telephone interview. "We are seeing a two-tiered market'' with emerging economies surging and developed markets flagging.
Chinese oil demand is expected to increase 5.7 percent next year as consumers in the world's fastest-growing major economy spend more on travel. ``Minor revisions'' to global growth forecasts, and expectations for rebuilding of depleted heating oil inventories in Germany also contributed to adjustments to world demand, the IEA said.
"Recent trends in Chinese crude runs suggest a possibility of stronger than expected demand, pre-Olympic stockpiling or both,'' the report said. Chinese demand "will likely rebound'' with the lifting of measures to curb pollution during the Olympics, it said.
The agency projects [ global ] demand growth for 2009 at 1.1 percent, from 1 percent last month, while the rate for this year remains unchanged at 0.9 percent.
The Chinese government had closed oil refineries and coal-fired power stations and reduced vehicle traffic before the Olympic Games to improve air quality. Fuel use will likely recover when these facilities are reopened after the event, the IEA said.
The country's demand trends for the second half of the year remain "remarkably opaque,'' the report said. Once the games finish refiners may curb imports, or the government may raise fuel costs for consumers. Alternatively the return of one million cars removed from Beijing's roads during the tournament may bolster demand, the IEA said.
OPEC, which supplies more than 40 percent of the world's oil, will need to provide about 31.6 million barrels a day this year to balance world supply and demand, the report showed.
To contact the reporters on this story: Grant Smith in London at gsmith52@bloomberg.net
Last Updated: August 12, 2008 07:18 EDT
Here you go C1ue -
This one's all for you. It appears your long held (18 months, and counting) thesis that China's energy consumption would / must "crash" post Olympics is about to become an orphan to unfolding actual demand trends. 5.7% annual demand growth, now estimated for 2009, raised up a tick from last months growth estimates. Even the global consumption growth estimate has ticked up year on year, to 1.1% estimated in 2009 from 0.9% this year.
Who could have known? :rolleyes:
_____________
IEA Increases Its Global Oil Demand Forecast for 2009 (Update1)
By Grant Smith
Aug. 12 (Bloomberg) -- The International Energy Agency, an adviser to 27 nations, raised its forecast for global oil demand next year and said it expects Chinese oil consumption to rise after the Olympic Games.
The IEA increased its forecast by 70,000 barrels to 87.8 million barrels a day, the Paris-based agency said today in its monthly report. Last week's pipeline explosion in Turkey may cut output from Azerbaijan by 30 percent this quarter and supplies are further threatened by military action in Georgia.
"We're still looking at a pretty buoyant picture in 2008, 2009 in China,'' David Fyfe, the IEA's supply analyst, said in a telephone interview. "We are seeing a two-tiered market'' with emerging economies surging and developed markets flagging.
Chinese oil demand is expected to increase 5.7 percent next year as consumers in the world's fastest-growing major economy spend more on travel. ``Minor revisions'' to global growth forecasts, and expectations for rebuilding of depleted heating oil inventories in Germany also contributed to adjustments to world demand, the IEA said.
"Recent trends in Chinese crude runs suggest a possibility of stronger than expected demand, pre-Olympic stockpiling or both,'' the report said. Chinese demand "will likely rebound'' with the lifting of measures to curb pollution during the Olympics, it said.
The agency projects [ global ] demand growth for 2009 at 1.1 percent, from 1 percent last month, while the rate for this year remains unchanged at 0.9 percent.
The Chinese government had closed oil refineries and coal-fired power stations and reduced vehicle traffic before the Olympic Games to improve air quality. Fuel use will likely recover when these facilities are reopened after the event, the IEA said.
The country's demand trends for the second half of the year remain "remarkably opaque,'' the report said. Once the games finish refiners may curb imports, or the government may raise fuel costs for consumers. Alternatively the return of one million cars removed from Beijing's roads during the tournament may bolster demand, the IEA said.
OPEC, which supplies more than 40 percent of the world's oil, will need to provide about 31.6 million barrels a day this year to balance world supply and demand, the report showed.
To contact the reporters on this story: Grant Smith in London at gsmith52@bloomberg.net
Last Updated: August 12, 2008 07:18 EDT
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