ALERT, ALERT Raid on Gold/Silver!!!!!!!

[Mega]

We hear, that a raid on Gold/silver very shortly........hang on!

Mike

[jtabeb]

Re: ALERT, ALERT Raid on Gold/Silver!!!!!!!

We hear, that a raid on Gold/silver very shortly........hang on!

Mike

Who CARES!!!!!

No, I'm not being an ass, just pointing out the HUDGE advantage of only playing in the physical market vs options/futures etc. You can't get BURNED by this things. Sure the cash value will drop momentarily as it has done from time to time, but you still have your OUNCES, that doesn't change.

I know some of you want big money right now, just realize the risks that you are taking on (being correct, but in the WRONG time frame!) I took my licks doing this a while back and have found I do better (and sleep MUCH better) just buying physical and watching it compund at about 35% annualized for the last 5 years or so.

George Soros " Find the false premise and bet against it"


Jamal Tabeb " don't time constrain a winning investment " r.e. (being correct, but in the WRONG time frame!)

A gold raid is a "false premise" so by all means play it for all it's worth. My advice is do it SAFELY, and buy physical when the price get whacked. Very profitable in my expereience.

Besides, you or I don't have billions (trillions?) in paper that we can throw into a trade. You ain't gonna beat these guys at their own game, that's a suckers bet that you are destined to loose. See what they don't see. Use the opportunity they provide you to profit, DON'T let them profit on an opportunity YOU PROVIDE them. As long as you chase paper profits YOU will loose and THEY will win. Change the rules of the game so that YOU WIN.

Lucid, I know. I just had coffee.

JT

P.S. Yes I DO PUT MY MONEY WHERE MY BIG MOUTH IS, to the tune of about 80% of my portfolio, so save that jive for someone else.

[Judas]

Re: ALERT, ALERT Raid on Gold/Silver!!!!!!!

Jtabeb, I agree wholeheartedly! I'm hoping for at least one more good price drop to buy more PMs to squirrel away in my Secret Stash.

But I read your first line a few times trying to figure out what a "HUDGE advantage" was... I was coming up with some weird acronyms.

[CanuckinTX]

Re: ALERT, ALERT Raid on Gold/Silver!!!!!!!

We hear, that a raid on Gold/silver very shortly........hang on!

Mike

Can anyone explain in more detail for this newbie what this means?

[kemper28]

Re: ALERT, ALERT Raid on Gold/Silver!!!!!!!

It mens mega has once again posted some spam with no data to back it up.

[ocelotl]

Re: ALERT, ALERT Raid on Gold/Silver!!!!!!!

Personally I haven't stacked more gold than silver in the last year since I don't feel OK with the price ratio... Somehow I'm thinking in a revert to a 25:1 price ratio (not the historical, but half of the level it is around now and closer to the earth crust ratio of 21:1). I'm waiting for a reduction of Libertad ounces to below 210 MXN and Hidalgos (0.2411 ozt) to below 2400 MXN.

[c1ue]

Re: ALERT, ALERT Raid on Gold/Silver!!!!!!!

There are two ways of looking at it:

1) With the market doing as poorly as it is - due to perceptions of the US inflating its debt away, a surprise rate hike would murder PMs for the short term. The timing for this would ideally be in August/September so that the high food/gasoline costs could be said to be going down. This is the 'planned' version.

2) With banks and companies going out of business rapidly and jobs being lost very quickly, more quickly than anticipated, the Fed fails to cut as hoped for due to clamorous concerns about rising inflation, thus sending both stock markets and gold down. This is the 'emergency measures' version.

It all boils down to timing and whether you think there is an alternative to the US inflating its way out of debt.

[tree]

Re: ALERT, ALERT Raid on Gold/Silver!!!!!!!

It mens mega has once again posted some spam with no data to back it up.

No, no, I think CanuckinTX asks a good question that many of us newbies (speaking for myself) may have.

What would be the nuts and bolts of an attack on PM prices, assuming that such a thing can be coordinated (which I believe)? Are there different possibilities, ways?

Or is Mega referring simply to a surprise rate hike?

This needs explaining. Please. :eek:

[Starving Steve]

Re: ALERT, ALERT Raid on Gold/Silver!!!!!!!

Personally I haven't stacked more gold than silver in the last year since I don't feel OK with the price ratio... Somehow I'm thinking in a revert to a 25:1 price ratio (not the historical, but half of the level it is around now and closer to the earth crust ratio of 21:1). I'm waiting for a reduction of Libertad ounces to below 210 MXN and Hidalgos (0.2411 ozt) to below 2400 MXN.

During periods of economic contraction, especially depression in the U.S, it is not unusual historically for gold to be 70:1 with silver, or even higher than that.

Ofcourse, to-day, we have a global economy. And the depression that we are entering into is inflationary, not deflationary as in the past. So the old rule-of-thumb with gold and silver may not apply exactly as in the past. Nevertheless, the old rule-of-thumb is a guideline; it is something to think about, especially with gold now out-performing silver in the markets.

My guess, and this is a guess only, is that gold will go 90:1 with silver, even in an inflationary depression because the remedy for the inflation is deflation--- and plenty of deflation. A re-monitzation of gold by the world's central banks in future could drive gold even higher. In a re-monitization, currencies would be partly backed by gold again, and central banks would think of gold as a monetary asset and not just a so-called commodity or commodity asset of the central bank. ( A monetary asset could be redeemable to the other central banks or to the public, or both. )

[Judas]

Re: ALERT, ALERT Raid on Gold/Silver!!!!!!!

During periods of economic contraction, especially depression in the U.S, it is not unusual historically for gold to be 70:1 with silver, or even higher than that.

Ofcourse, to-day, we have a global economy. And the depression that we are entering into is inflationary, not deflationary as in the past. So the old rule-of-thumb with gold and silver may not apply exactly as in the past. Nevertheless, the old rule-of-thumb is a guideline; it is something to think about, especially with gold now out-performing silver in the markets.

My guess, and this is a guess only, is that gold will go 90:1 with silver, even in an inflationary depression because the remedy for the inflation is deflation--- and plenty of deflation. A re-monitzation of gold by the world's central banks in future could drive gold even higher. In a re-monitization, currencies would be partly backed by gold again, and central banks would think of gold as a monetary asset and not just a so-called commodity or commodity asset of the central bank. ( A monetary asset could be redeemable to the other central banks or to the public, or both. )

What about Chinese monetary demand? China has traditionally seen silver as the monetary metal (they were on a silver standard in the 20th century), and what if a global recession/depression drive Chinese to silver the way Westerners flock to gold when things go kaplooey?

[Starving Steve]

Re: ALERT, ALERT Raid on Gold/Silver!!!!!!!

What about Chinese monetary demand? China has traditionally seen silver as the monetary metal (they were on a silver standard in the 20th century), and what if a global recession/depression drive Chinese to silver the way Westerners flock to gold when things go kaplooey?

You are correct: China may favour silver over gold, and in that case, silver would trade much lower than the 90:1 with gold in an inflationary depression. Perhaps if China prefers silver, as you say, then silver would be little changed from the current 50:1 with gold.

Although I like the old U.S. silver dollars, my preference has always been gold, and for good reason: Gold was forbidden for Americans to own between 1933 and 1975. That makes gold very precious.

I also think silver is poor investment because silver is a by-product of copper-mining, and copper is at record high prices. That means lots of silver supply at a zero mining cost. Also the industrial demand for silver is rather suspect, especially now that the photographic demand for silver has all but disappeared.

And coinage demand for silver is a joke too, compared to what the demand for silver used to be when silver was made into circulating coins before 1965 in the U.S, before 1968 in Canada, and before 1947 in the UK.

[ocelotl]

Re: ALERT, ALERT Raid on Gold/Silver!!!!!!!

Silver was kept as monetary metal in Bretton Woods I due to diplomatic negotiations. You are correct regarding circulating coinage dates, also here in Mexico silver was left out in 1967 (0.0514 ozt in the 1957-1967 peso), but has been included a few times later:

- "Olímpicas", 1968, 0.5209 ozt, 25 pesos (MXP).
- "Año de Juarez", 1972, 0.5209 ozt, 25 pesos (MXP).
- "Morelos", 1977-1979, 0.6429 ozt, 100 pesos (MXP).
- Diez Nuevos Pesos, 1992-5, 0.1667 ozt (10 MXN).
- Veinte Nuevos Pesos, 1993-5, 0.2500 ozt (20 MXN).
- 50 Nuevos Pesos, 1994-5, 0.5000 ozt (50 MXN).
- Statehood Coins, 2003-7, 0.5000 ozt, 100 pesos (MXN).

As indicated, silver usage in photography has almost vanished, and electronics is actually the highest demand industry, but as coinage is embedded in several cultures as an important monetary metal (case in most Latin America, as well as China). As of today, it may be closer the remonetization of silver than that of gold in some countries, but from the possibility to the fact there is a stretch. I won't argue the uptrend of any metal since it is a given, due to the energy cost to obtain them, but also can't fully dismiss any due to future industrial/monetary usage.

[Guest]

Re: ALERT, ALERT Raid on Gold/Silver!!!!!!!

Jim Willie is brilliant. You can see the acuity come shining right through in his commentary. Silver will be a tightly coiled spring in this upcoming fall and winter, as will Goldm but unlike gold's 90% being held by investors, in silver only 7% is today held by investors. A little uptick in investor interest in silver goes a long way. Who ever claimed that technical analysis can not be an exceedingly valuable tool? At the pivotal moments it's early warnings can be quite valuable indeed.

_______________

USDOLLAR ON EDGE OF BREAKDOWN

http://www.gold-eagle.com/editorials...lie070208.html

The USDollar is showing early signs of breakdown. Look closely not at the critical support levels from March and April, but rather the intermediate pattern. If the intermediate pattern on display over the last four months is ignored, and a simplistic view is taken of critical April support levels continuing to hold, then one might conclude ‘No Big Deal’ on the recent USDollar move down in the last couple weeks. However, if that intermediate pattern is viewed in technical terms, one must conclude that the US$ DX index has begun a breakdown. At 72.10 late in the day Wednesday, the breakdown continues almost silently. Gold and silver prices have responded. Notice the 200-day moving average held firm since the bounce began in March and April. One can easily now call that bounce as utterly feeble. It enabled a vividly clear pause pattern. Those who call the bounce as the beginning of a US$ recovery are exaggerating, undoubtedly motivated by the vested interests of Wall Street to support trade of their own private book of investments. The US$ DX index has broken below the clearly defined bearish pause flag pattern, one found in classical technical chart textbooks.

The MACD cyclical index shows a definite downward direction in the upper chart portion. The crossover in this moving average convergence divergence index is early but profoundly clear.

The biggest confirmation one can point to on the USDollar weakness, extended from the USEconomic weakness, is the big decline in the 2-year USTreasury Bill yield. It has continued to fall from the time of last week’s article about the market response to the USFed that blinked. With a 2-year USTBill yield now at 2.60%, some conclusions can be drawn. An economic recession is confirmed. The USFed has had a rate cut taken off the table. More price inflation is coming, permitted as a harsh secondary expense for treating the worst recession the nation will see in 70 years. A credit derivative accident spawned from higher long-term rates cannot be permitted, but might occur anyway despite all the wizards best efforts. One should regard all talk of crude oil speculation to account for its price rise as pure distraction from the clear and powerful USDollar risk of further breakdown.



The euro currency has been the principal beneficiary of the USDollar weakness in the last couple weeks. It is back over 158, after having flirted with the 154 handle for a spell, just enough to fool the silly casino players on Wall Street. In fact, today it is near the 159 level. The euro now threatens all-time 160 high established in April, having surpassed both the May and June highs. Europe has problems, but they also have a trade surplus and an official interest rate not so absurdly low as the American rate. The EU economy is totally bifurcated, with southern nations under extreme duress while Germany is now running essentially flat. Maybe the Germans running the Euro Central Bank are attempting to fracture their monetary union? Any official interest rate hike ordered by the Euro Central Bank, which meets on Thursday, would be ill-advised. They might do so anyway, but watch for them to take it back later this autumn if they are so unwise as to do so. The subtle punishment will be a euro well past 160 toward 170 in the exchange rate, which will interrupt European exporters severely. The British pound sterling has actually risen also, despite its utterly pathetic set of fundamentals. Without its lofty official interest rate, the sterling would be panhandling with licensed hired vagrants outside the FOREX trading halls.

The one loud fundamental behind the USDollar weakness is the endless war. Its costs are one billion straws on the camel’s back. Its sacred status should be more debated, especially since it has contributed in an important way to the destruction of the national finances. The debate on private profiteering and military contract corruption, not to mention its high priority for contraband trafficking, should begin, except for loud cries against the patriotism of such critics. The conclusion is that patriots should be silent to profiteering, corruption, and trafficking. Go figure! A side comment on yet another doctored statistic. The number of soldier deaths in Iraq & Afghanistan is officially tied to those who die with boots on Iraqi and Afghan soil, excluding all soldiers who die following serious wounds in Qatar, Kuwait, Persian Gulf naval vessels, German hospitals, Walter Reed Hospital, and so on. My sources report that the war death count is 3x to 5x higher than the official count, thus another falsified statistic. This writer wants America safe, but the real threats reside in Wall Street, the USGovt, and the ancillary agencies.

GOLD ON VERGE OF BREAKOUT

The gold price leads the precious metals. Simultaneous with the US$ weakness, the gold price has lifted above the May high. No resistance exists between the 950-960 ribbon and the all-time 1030 high registered in March. The retest of the May low has been successful. Its price now stands just shy of 950 late on Wednesday. Notice the 200-day moving average held in support, guiding FOREX traders. A powerful reversal seems evident as a bowl-shaped pattern. A sharp uptrend in the MACD is also clear in the cyclical index. In my view, the fundamentals are present for a triumphant challenge of the 1000 mark. When 1000 is indeed broken, look for a powerful breakout to at least reach 1100, and probably shoot up to 1200 quickly. Recall that we are still in the slow gold season, so prepare for something very big during the typically strong season.



**************

The silver price improvement has finally caught up to that of the gold price. Its monster 70 cent move up on Tuesday brought a smile to my face. When 21 is indeed broken, look for a powerful breakout to at least reach 25, and probably shoot up to 30. Recall that we are still in the slow precious metal season, so prepare for something very big. The central banks own no silver. The commodity trading pits are under pressure to deny delivery. Shortages are reported by both the USMint and diverse coin dealers. Some silver merchants report continued brisk trade, the only arena not flashing red lights.

[Starving Steve]

Re: ALERT, ALERT Raid on Gold/Silver!!!!!!!

Silver was kept as monetary metal in Bretton Woods I due to diplomatic negotiations. You are correct regarding circulating coinage dates, also here in Mexico silver was left out in 1967 (0.0514 ozt in the 1957-1967 peso), but has been included a few times later:

- "Olímpicas", 1968, 0.5209 ozt, 25 pesos (MXP).
- "Año de Juarez", 1972, 0.5209 ozt, 25 pesos (MXP).
- "Morelos", 1977-1979, 0.6429 ozt, 100 pesos (MXP).
- Diez Nuevos Pesos, 1992-5, 0.1667 ozt (10 MXN).
- Veinte Nuevos Pesos, 1993-5, 0.2500 ozt (20 MXN).
- 50 Nuevos Pesos, 1994-5, 0.5000 ozt (50 MXN).
- Statehood Coins, 2003-7, 0.5000 ozt, 100 pesos (MXN).

As indicated, silver usage in photography has almost vanished, and electronics is actually the highest demand industry, but as coinage is embedded in several cultures as an important monetary metal (case in most Latin America, as well as China). As of today, it may be closer the remonetization of silver than that of gold in some countries, but from the possibility to the fact there is a stretch. I won't argue the uptrend of any metal since it is a given, due to the energy cost to obtain them, but also can't fully dismiss any due to future industrial/monetary usage.

I would say that the diez nuevo pesos (1992-1995) in Mexico was the world's last CIRCULATING silver coin. It circulated everywhere, or so I have been told. ( I was not in Mexico during those years.) The other silver coins on your list are collectors' fantasy coins. If those fantasies enjoyed any circulation at all, it was from the bank counter to the coin collector, all of one minute in the coin's life. In other words, the psuedo-coin went from mint-to bank-to coin collector-to melting pot.

Sadly, the world has no shortage of collectors' fantasy coins or psuedo-coins or synthetic-coins. But let's use the dignifyied term for this garbage: NCLT or non-circulating legal tender. These NCLT coins do not circulate at all and sadly are all but unknown to anyone outside the world's coin collector community.

I do recall once having to spend a $10 silver Montreal Olympic coin to buy gasoline. This was in the middle of winter in rural Manitoba, out in the middle of no-where. Happily, the gas station owner accepted the $10 coin. That transaction was probably the only time that an NCLT coin was actually used for money in circulation in Canada, or anywhere else in the world.

Back to the point I was trying to make: I don't think silver has much of a future as an investment unless silver can once again find its place for use as a metal for coinage--- FOR REAL HONEST-TO-GOODNESS CIRCULATING COINS in the world.

[GRG55]

Silver Coinage, Peak Oil, Cash Payments...

...Back to the point I was trying to make: I don't think silver has much of a future as an investment unless silver can once again find its place for use as a metal for coinage--- FOR REAL HONEST-TO-GOODNESS CIRCULATING COINS in the world.

Silver Coinage, Peak Oil, Cash Payments...
In this day and age of "money" as electronic blips a return to silver coinage is difficult to imagine.

Another vignette that rolls in the other two items above. Went flying with a pilot friend a few days ago. After pre-flight he called his usual supplier, the local Exxon dealer, to send the truck over to fuel the airplane. They were out of aviation gasoline. Allegedly some sort of "refinery problem". Didn't know when they would have any [seems to me no product to sell is a damn tough way to run a business, but WDIK]

Fortunately their competition at Shell had fuel. I paid the driver with cash and coins [I avoid using credit as much as possible, and do not like giving anyone my debit card]. He told me he could not recall anyone ever paying for fuel with cash. Plastic nation...:p