So fellow Tulipians, is oil the new gold?

[FRED]

Re: So fellow Tulipians, is oil the new gold?

Lukester wrote...Actually, what I'm expressing is a latent boredom at work and a frustration that I'm too poor/cheap to buy physical gold, or join iTulip Select and read the good stuff. Just trying to spark some discussion.

Anyhoo, here's where I am.... Most of my money is in a 401k, with limited choices and I've spread my investment over international funds, money market, and a PIMCO bond fund. Is that reasonable?

I've got a smaller Roth IRA, which I moved mostly into gold funds in back in 1999-2000 after reading a quirky little web site that compared tech stocks to flower bulbs (Thanks, EJ! My $10k IRA has grown to nearly $40K without any contributions).

Hyp.

Let's compare that to the gurus, shall we?

All data is as of June 27, 2008:


Manager…………………. 6-months ……………..... 12-months

Marty Whitman ……….. ( - 43.38% ) ………………( - 34.61% )
Mohnish Pabrai ………... (- 41.20% ) ………………( - 36.88% )
Bill Miller ……………… ( - 37.05% ) ……………... ( - 40.90% )
Joel Greenblatt ………… ( - 37.00% ) ……………… ( - 37.00% )
Eddie Lampert ………… ( - 28.95% ) ……………… ( -33.94% )
Robert Bruce ………….. ( - 25.00% ) ………………. ( - 19.16% )
Bruce Sherman ………… ( - 24.68% ) ……………… ( - 30.55% )
Charles Brandes ……….. ( - 24.58% ) ……………… ( - 29.51% )
Robert Rodriguez ……… ( - 22.20% ) ……………… ( - 17.75% )
Mark Hillman ………….. ( - 21.53% ) ……………… ( - 25.40% )
Carl Icahn ……………… ( -21.00% ) ………………. ( - 3.98%)
Edward Owens ………… ( -20.94% ) ………………. ( - 16.74%)
Irving Kahn ……………. ( - 20.75% ) ………………. ( - 24.68% )
Brian Rodgers …………. ( -20.48% ) ……………….. ( - 24.68% )
Arnold Schneider ……… ( -20.39% ) ……………….. ( - 27.25% )
Bill Ackman …………… ( - 19.38% ) ………………. ( - 23.06% )
Chris Davis ……………. ( - 19.17% ) ………………. ( - 19.75%)
Bill Nygren ……………. ( - 17.80% ) ………………. ( - 27.96% )
Richard Snow …………. ( - 17.68% ) ………………. ( - 19.77% )
Hotchkis & Wiley …….. ( - 17.28% ) ………………. ( - 25.02% )
Richard Pzena ………… ( - 16.27% ) ………………. ( - 25.22% )
David Dreman ………… ( - 15.82% ) ……………… ( - 11.87% )
Tweedy Browne ………. ( -14.73% ) ………………. ( - 17.23% )
Arnold Van Den Berg … ( - 14.67% ) ……………… ( - 22.32% )
Robert Olstein ………… ( - 14.46% ) ……………… ( - 21.05% )
Wally Weitz …………… ( - 14.31% ) ……………… ( - 23.00% )
Third Ave. Mgt. ………. ( - 13.84% ) ………………. ( - 11.83% )
John Rodgers …………. ( - 13.57% ) ………………. ( - 21.47% )
Mason Hawkins ………. ( - 13.51% ) ……………… ( - 20.88% )
Dodge and Cox ……….. ( - 13.17% ) ……………… ( - 15.01% )
Bruce Berkowitz ……… ( - 12.26% ) ……………… ( - 3.68% )
David Swensen ……….. ( - 12.19% ) ……………… ( - 12.23% )
Ron Baron …………….. ( - 11.70% ) ……………… ( - 12.80% )
Ian Cumming ………….. ( - 11.05% ) ……………… ( - 11.68% )
David Tepper ………….. ( - 10.68% ) ……………… ( - 14.87% )
Jean-Marie Eveillard ….. ( - 10.62% ) …………….… ( - 7.23% )
NWQ Managers ………. ( - 10.46% ) ………………. ( - 13.39% )
Ron Muhlenkamp …….. ( - 9.58% ) ………………… ( - 13.39%)
Glenn Greenberg ……… ( - 9.45% ) ………………… ( - 15.22% )
Michael Price …………. ( - 9.26% ) ………………… ( - 13.87% )
Tom Gayner ………….. ( - 9.19% ) …………………. ( - 17.50% )
Richard Aster ………… ( - 6.73% ) …………………. ( - 5.00% )
George Soros …………. ( - 6.56% ) ………………… ( - 9.43% )
Ruanne Cunniff ………. ( - 6.40% ) ………………… ( - 10.61% )
David Einhorn ………... ( - 5.91% ) ………………… + 3.18%
Chuck Akre …………… ( - 4.00% ) ………………… ( - 11.08% )
Warren Buffett ……….. ( - 4.00% ) …………………. ( - 3.60% )

[Jim Nickerson]

Re: So fellow Tulipians, is oil the new gold?

Makes one wonder what is the worth of paying people to look after one's monies?

[c1ue]

Re: So fellow Tulipians, is oil the new gold?

Jim,

Read Buffet's annual report for the last 3 or 4 years and the saga of the Gotrocks.

Financial managers by and large are the snake oil salesmen of the modern age.

[ax]

Re: So fellow Tulipians, is oil the new gold?

Let's compare that to the gurus, shall we?

All data is as of June 27, 2008:


Manager…………………. 6-months ……………..... 12-months

Marty Whitman ……….. ( - 43.38% ) ………………( - 34.61% )
Mohnish Pabrai ………... (- 41.20% ) ………………( - 36.88% )
Bill Miller ……………… ( - 37.05% ) ……………... ( - 40.90% )
Joel Greenblatt ………… ( - 37.00% ) ……………… ( - 37.00% )
Eddie Lampert ………… ( - 28.95% ) ……………… ( -33.94% )
Robert Bruce ………….. ( - 25.00% ) ………………. ( - 19.16% )
Bruce Sherman ………… ( - 24.68% ) ……………… ( - 30.55% )
Charles Brandes ……….. ( - 24.58% ) ……………… ( - 29.51% )
Robert Rodriguez ……… ( - 22.20% ) ……………… ( - 17.75% )
Mark Hillman ………….. ( - 21.53% ) ……………… ( - 25.40% )
Carl Icahn ……………… ( -21.00% ) ………………. ( - 3.98%)
Edward Owens ………… ( -20.94% ) ………………. ( - 16.74%)
Irving Kahn ……………. ( - 20.75% ) ………………. ( - 24.68% )
Brian Rodgers …………. ( -20.48% ) ……………….. ( - 24.68% )
Arnold Schneider ……… ( -20.39% ) ……………….. ( - 27.25% )
Bill Ackman …………… ( - 19.38% ) ………………. ( - 23.06% )
Chris Davis ……………. ( - 19.17% ) ………………. ( - 19.75%)
Bill Nygren ……………. ( - 17.80% ) ………………. ( - 27.96% )
Richard Snow …………. ( - 17.68% ) ………………. ( - 19.77% )
Hotchkis & Wiley …….. ( - 17.28% ) ………………. ( - 25.02% )
Richard Pzena ………… ( - 16.27% ) ………………. ( - 25.22% )
David Dreman ………… ( - 15.82% ) ……………… ( - 11.87% )
Tweedy Browne ………. ( -14.73% ) ………………. ( - 17.23% )
Arnold Van Den Berg … ( - 14.67% ) ……………… ( - 22.32% )
Robert Olstein ………… ( - 14.46% ) ……………… ( - 21.05% )
Wally Weitz …………… ( - 14.31% ) ……………… ( - 23.00% )
Third Ave. Mgt. ………. ( - 13.84% ) ………………. ( - 11.83% )
John Rodgers …………. ( - 13.57% ) ………………. ( - 21.47% )
Mason Hawkins ………. ( - 13.51% ) ……………… ( - 20.88% )
Dodge and Cox ……….. ( - 13.17% ) ……………… ( - 15.01% )
Bruce Berkowitz ……… ( - 12.26% ) ……………… ( - 3.68% )
David Swensen ……….. ( - 12.19% ) ……………… ( - 12.23% )
Ron Baron …………….. ( - 11.70% ) ……………… ( - 12.80% )
Ian Cumming ………….. ( - 11.05% ) ……………… ( - 11.68% )
David Tepper ………….. ( - 10.68% ) ……………… ( - 14.87% )
Jean-Marie Eveillard ….. ( - 10.62% ) …………….… ( - 7.23% )
NWQ Managers ………. ( - 10.46% ) ………………. ( - 13.39% )
Ron Muhlenkamp …….. ( - 9.58% ) ………………… ( - 13.39%)
Glenn Greenberg ……… ( - 9.45% ) ………………… ( - 15.22% )
Michael Price …………. ( - 9.26% ) ………………… ( - 13.87% )
Tom Gayner ………….. ( - 9.19% ) …………………. ( - 17.50% )
Richard Aster ………… ( - 6.73% ) …………………. ( - 5.00% )
George Soros …………. ( - 6.56% ) ………………… ( - 9.43% )
Ruanne Cunniff ………. ( - 6.40% ) ………………… ( - 10.61% )
David Einhorn ………... ( - 5.91% ) ………………… + 3.18%
Chuck Akre …………… ( - 4.00% ) ………………… ( - 11.08% )
Warren Buffett ……….. ( - 4.00% ) …………………. ( - 3.60% )

Ax +50% 2 weeks. Your/EJ's post a few weeks ago predicting best guess for end of year Dow 10K scared the shit out of me. I shorted Lehman, Citibank and Auto Nation. Thanks.

[metalman]

Re: So fellow Tulipians, is oil the new gold?

Ax +50% 2 weeks. Your/EJ's post a few weeks ago predicting best guess for end of year Dow 10K scared the shit out of me. I shorted Lehman, Citibank and Auto Nation. Thanks.

soon a 10k dow will be a distant dream.

[Judas]

Re: So fellow Tulipians, is oil the new gold?

I'm 38 years old. Stocks going very low is good for me in the 401K sense, no?

For the next 5 years I'm buying stocks cheap, and coupled with my employer's match I'll be getting a lot of shares for my money. DOW 10K, or even 5K doesn't matter to me as long as I'm not retiring anytime soon as far as I can tell.

Of course that doesn't mean I'm not accumulating 1/10 ounce gold eagles, krugerrands, and maple leafs as well as buying silver eagles every week...

[Jim Nickerson]

Re: So fellow Tulipians, is oil the new gold?

I'm 38 years old. Stocks going very low is good for me in the 401K sense, no?

For the next 5 years I'm buying stocks cheap, and coupled with my employer's match I'll be getting a lot of shares for my money. DOW 10K, or even 5K doesn't matter to me as long as I'm not retiring anytime soon as far as I can tell.

Of course that doesn't mean I'm not accumulating 1/10 ounce gold eagles, krugerrands, and maple leafs as well as buying silver eagles every week...

Dollar cost averaging is said to be good, but consider 20 year periods when the markets go nowhere nominally and most likely lose value regarding inflation, and then it might not work so well.

My opinion is individuals should put as much money as allowable into their plans, the younger the better when one starts, and more importantly save as much as possible outside the plan. Unless one wins the lotto, I don't know how one can do better, assuming too that one stays mostly in the better asset classes.

[Judas]

Re: So fellow Tulipians, is oil the new gold?

Dollar cost averaging is said to be good, but consider 20 year periods when the markets go nowhere nominally and most likely lose value regarding inflation, and then it might not work so well.

True enough. But factoring in the employer match means that off the bat you're doubling that money, so overall it is likely a good idea for someone like me who is looking at another (at least) decade and a half of (full-time) working years.

But as I mentioned, this also doesn't mean I'm not buying PMs.

... and Mountain House freeze-dried food, shotgun shells, dynamo-powered devices... ;)

And if I was 58 instead of 38 I'd be running a lot more scared!

[Jim Nickerson]

Re: So fellow Tulipians, is oil the new gold?

True enough. But factoring in the employer match means that off the bat you're doubling that money, so overall it is likely a good idea for someone like me who is looking at another (at least) decade and a half of (full-time) working years.

But as I mentioned, this also doesn't mean I'm not buying PMs.

... and Mountain House freeze-dried food, shotgun shells, dynamo-powered devices... ;)

And if I was 58 instead of 38 I'd be running a lot more scared!

You might consider that the older you become, the less long is the period during which you have to contend with the future. Every day I worry less, wife ultimately will have to fend for herself.

Employee matched contributions are fantastic, and for many constitute their only savings. Hopefully they won't lose it by bad choices in whatever the plan offers.

I worry for, or at least do not envy the futures of my 6 and 11 years old neighbors, and am glad I don't have kids and grandkids.

[Judas]

Re: So fellow Tulipians, is oil the new gold?

You might consider that the older you become, the less long is the period during which you have to contend with the future.

I hadn't thought of it quite that way, but I guess you're right! Grim, but true.

Employee matched contributions are fantastic, and for many constitute their only savings. Hopefully they won't lose it by bad choices in whatever the plan offers.

I'm currently down 2.2% YTD. But I'm of the camp that thinks eventually my silver will explode in price. ;)

I worry for, or at least do not envy the futures of my 6 and 11 years old neighbors, and am glad I don't have kids and grandkids.

I have two 19 year-olds. One is in the Coast Guard, the other is going to college basically for free... thank god he is an amazing wide receiver! They both will enter adult life/careers with little to no debt, which I hope will help make the difference.

I also have zero credit card debt (or even cards!), own our recent-year fuel-efficient automobiles outright, did NOT pull the equity out of the house I bought before the 00s runup in prices so still have lots of equity... I lead a very low-cost lifestyle, and I hope this transferred to the kids enough.

[Jim Nickerson]

Re: So fellow Tulipians, is oil the new gold?

I hadn't thought of it quite that way, but I guess you're right! Grim, but true.



I'm currently down 2.2% YTD. But I'm of the camp that thinks eventually my silver will explode in price. ;)



I have two 19 year-olds. One is in the Coast Guard, the other is going to college basically for free... thank god he is an amazing wide receiver! They both will enter adult life/careers with little to no debt, which I hope will help make the difference.

I also have zero credit card debt (or even cards!), own our recent-year fuel-efficient automobiles outright, did NOT pull the equity out of the house I bought before the 00s runup in prices so still have lots of equity... I lead a very low-cost lifestyle, and I hope this transferred to the kids enough.

Judas, it just popped into my mind, I wonder how many serious readers here who have kids the age of yours or older have made strong recommendations that they should be spending some of their "entertainment time" reading here too?

I guess I might have been a lot more serious about a lot of things financial had I been directed and taken that direction when I was a college student, and it certainly would have been made easier if the internet had existed.

But then I have been fortunate I guess to have lived through what might in later times be looked back upon as the golden age of advancement of the American way of life with regard to being able to get a lot of stuff and later throw it away.

[Judas]

Re: So fellow Tulipians, is oil the new gold?

Judas, it just popped into my mind, I wonder how many serious readers here who have kids the age of yours or older have made strong recommendations that they should be spending some of their "entertainment time" reading here too?

I'm the guy foisting "Money as Debt" DVDs on the kids and discussing Ron Paul!

[Jay]

Re: So fellow Tulipians, is oil the new gold?

Judas, it just popped into my mind, I wonder how many serious readers here who have kids the age of yours or older have made strong recommendations that they should be spending some of their "entertainment time" reading here too?

I guess I might have been a lot more serious about a lot of things financial had I been directed and taken that direction when I was a college student, and it certainly would have been made easier if the internet had existed.

But then I have been fortunate I guess to have lived through what might in later times be looked back upon as the golden age of advancement of the American way of life with regard to being able to get a lot of stuff and later throw it away.

I was too busy with the serious pursuit of extracurricular activities for itulip...

[GRG55]

Re: So fellow Tulipians, is oil the new gold?

Let's compare that to the gurus, shall we?

All data is as of June 27, 2008:


Manager…………………. 6-months ……………..... 12-months

Marty Whitman ……….. ( - 43.38% ) ………………( - 34.61% )
Mohnish Pabrai ………... (- 41.20% ) ………………( - 36.88% )
Bill Miller ……………… ( - 37.05% ) ……………... ( - 40.90% )
Joel Greenblatt ………… ( - 37.00% ) ……………… ( - 37.00% )
Eddie Lampert ………… ( - 28.95% ) ……………… ( -33.94% )
Robert Bruce ………….. ( - 25.00% ) ………………. ( - 19.16% )
Bruce Sherman ………… ( - 24.68% ) ……………… ( - 30.55% )
Charles Brandes ……….. ( - 24.58% ) ……………… ( - 29.51% )
Robert Rodriguez ……… ( - 22.20% ) ……………… ( - 17.75% )
Mark Hillman ………….. ( - 21.53% ) ……………… ( - 25.40% )
Carl Icahn ……………… ( -21.00% ) ………………. ( - 3.98%)
Edward Owens ………… ( -20.94% ) ………………. ( - 16.74%)
Irving Kahn ……………. ( - 20.75% ) ………………. ( - 24.68% )
Brian Rodgers …………. ( -20.48% ) ……………….. ( - 24.68% )
Arnold Schneider ……… ( -20.39% ) ……………….. ( - 27.25% )
Bill Ackman …………… ( - 19.38% ) ………………. ( - 23.06% )
Chris Davis ……………. ( - 19.17% ) ………………. ( - 19.75%)
Bill Nygren ……………. ( - 17.80% ) ………………. ( - 27.96% )
Richard Snow …………. ( - 17.68% ) ………………. ( - 19.77% )
Hotchkis & Wiley …….. ( - 17.28% ) ………………. ( - 25.02% )
Richard Pzena ………… ( - 16.27% ) ………………. ( - 25.22% )
David Dreman ………… ( - 15.82% ) ……………… ( - 11.87% )
Tweedy Browne ………. ( -14.73% ) ………………. ( - 17.23% )
Arnold Van Den Berg … ( - 14.67% ) ……………… ( - 22.32% )
Robert Olstein ………… ( - 14.46% ) ……………… ( - 21.05% )
Wally Weitz …………… ( - 14.31% ) ……………… ( - 23.00% )
Third Ave. Mgt. ………. ( - 13.84% ) ………………. ( - 11.83% )
John Rodgers …………. ( - 13.57% ) ………………. ( - 21.47% )
Mason Hawkins ………. ( - 13.51% ) ……………… ( - 20.88% )
Dodge and Cox ……….. ( - 13.17% ) ……………… ( - 15.01% )
Bruce Berkowitz ……… ( - 12.26% ) ……………… ( - 3.68% )
David Swensen ……….. ( - 12.19% ) ……………… ( - 12.23% )
Ron Baron …………….. ( - 11.70% ) ……………… ( - 12.80% )
Ian Cumming ………….. ( - 11.05% ) ……………… ( - 11.68% )
David Tepper ………….. ( - 10.68% ) ……………… ( - 14.87% )
Jean-Marie Eveillard ….. ( - 10.62% ) …………….… ( - 7.23% )
NWQ Managers ………. ( - 10.46% ) ………………. ( - 13.39% )
Ron Muhlenkamp …….. ( - 9.58% ) ………………… ( - 13.39%)
Glenn Greenberg ……… ( - 9.45% ) ………………… ( - 15.22% )
Michael Price …………. ( - 9.26% ) ………………… ( - 13.87% )
Tom Gayner ………….. ( - 9.19% ) …………………. ( - 17.50% )
Richard Aster ………… ( - 6.73% ) …………………. ( - 5.00% )
George Soros …………. ( - 6.56% ) ………………… ( - 9.43% )
Ruanne Cunniff ………. ( - 6.40% ) ………………… ( - 10.61% )
David Einhorn ………... ( - 5.91% ) ………………… + 3.18%
Chuck Akre …………… ( - 4.00% ) ………………… ( - 11.08% )
Warren Buffett ……….. ( - 4.00% ) …………………. ( - 3.60% )

Bill Miller still doesn't get it...

Legg Mason's Miller: "Bottom's been made" in stocks
Wed Dec 3, 2008 5:04pm EST

NEW YORK, Dec 3 (Reuters) - Legg Mason's (LM.N: Quote, Profile, Research, Stock Buzz) Bill Miller, a celebrated value investor but whose stock picking is far off the mark this year, said on Wednesday the "bottom has been made" in U.S. equities, and forecast opportunities for strong gains once markets rally.

He said the Federal Reserve should buy stocks and junk bonds to avert a deeper financial crisis, adding "the taxpayer would make a killing" as markets rebound...

...For the year, Miller's flagship Value Trust LMVTX.O fund was down 59.7 percent as of Tuesday, compared to a 41 percent decline in the reinvested returns of the S&P 500 index, according to Lipper Inc., a unit of Thomson Reuters.

Performance over the year-to-date, one-, three- and five-year periods for Value Trust put it at the bottom of the barrel among its peers, Lipper data shows.

Miller's track record of calling market bottoms also hasn't been so hot. In late April, one month after Bear Stearns' spectacular fall, Miller told his shareholders: "I think we will do better from here on, and that by far the worst is behind us."...

[c1ue]

Re: So fellow Tulipians, is oil the new gold?

Bill Miller still doesn't get it...

A Random Walk down Wall Street in action...