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  • The Bank Failure Watch Thread

    http://www.azcentral.com/arizonarepu...lure0620.html#

    Failures at banks often hit on Friday
    Heavy real-estate lending has stung local institutions
    Russ Wiles
    The Arizona Republic
    Jun. 20, 2008 12:00 AM

    In banking circles, Fridays are becoming the day of the week to really pay attention.

    That's the day regulators increasingly are choosing to announce bank failures - and failures are on the rise this year.

    No banks in Arizona have failed in more than a decade, but concerns are growing that one or more entities might go under given the heavy concentration of real-estate lending by many local institutions. advertisement




    One worrisome sign: Slightly more than half the banks based in Arizona lost money in the first quarter, led by a $131 million loss for First National Bank of Arizona and $14 million in red ink for Meridian Bank. Both institutions also reported 10 percent or more of their loans weren't performing as of the end of the quarter.

    When the Federal Deposit Insurance Corp. announces a bank failure on Friday, often late in the day, it does so with an eye on preventing a run on deposits. The timing provides a weekend for people to calm down.

    The extra time also allows for a more orderly changing of the guard since regulators work hard to line up a suitor bank to take over accounts at the failed institution before making an announcement.

    "They want to have the least amount of disruption," said Harry Papp, a money manager at L. Roy Papp & Associates in Phoenix. "It gives the receiving bank more time to get prepared for all the phone calls they'll get on Monday morning."

    Of the past 14 bank failures announced by the FDIC, 12 came on Fridays and one on a Saturday. Regulators did most of the hard work - examining bank records, finding a suitor, revoking the bank's charter and so on - in the preceding days and weeks, as secretly as possible to avoid sparking a run.

    "From the government's standpoint, no prior notice is given that a bank is scheduled to be closed," said David Barr, an FDIC spokesman, in an interview with bankrate.com. The FDIC could not be reached for comment Thursday.

    When regulators shutter a bank on a Friday, depositors typically still have access to their funds over the weekend by writing checks or using debit or ATM cards.

    Usually, but not always, their money will be protected by federal deposit insurance administered by the FDIC. The basic rule is that each depositor receives $100,000 in protection per bank. Individual retirement accounts are protected up to $250,000.

    But insurance applies only to deposits, not securities or insurance products such as stocks, bonds, mutual funds or annuities - even when bought at or through a bank.

    Then again, uninsured amounts exceeding $100,000 aren't necessarily a total loss. The acquiring institution may honor them. If it doesn't, uninsured depositors may share in the liquidation of the failed bank's assets.

  • #2
    Re: The Bank Failure Watch Thread

    As I posted elsewhere, if you go into your branch and there are well dressed strangers hovering over the tellers, your bank is about to be shut down. Had a bank go under on me this way in California. No big deal and we got our money and had no interruption of our depositary relationship with just some minimal paperwork.

    I think the regionals are toast. They will be merged into the big money center banks as they fail. They will all fail, just about. Some of the very small banks are very conservative and well run but the regionals, starting with National City and Suntrust are history.

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    • #3
      Re: The Bank Failure Watch Thread

      Originally posted by grapejelly View Post
      I think the regionals are toast. They will be merged into the big money center banks as they fail. They will all fail, just about. Some of the very small banks are very conservative and well run but the regionals, starting with National City and Suntrust are history.
      Heard the same thing on Bloomberg, let me see if I can link the interview.

      Cannot find it, but there will be a replay at 00 HRS EST, listen for Henry Kaufman where he tells there is massive bank cosolidations coming and only Gov. spending will save the day, a must listen if you can:

      http://www.bloomberg.com/tvradio/radio/index.html#

      http://www.bloomberg.com/audioplayer...radio_live.asx
      Last edited by Sapiens; June 23, 2008, 10:35 PM.

      Comment


      • #4
        Re: The Bank Failure Watch Thread

        Originally posted by grapejelly View Post
        As I posted elsewhere, if you go into your branch and there are well dressed strangers hovering over the tellers, your bank is about to be shut down. Had a bank go under on me this way in California. No big deal and we got our money and had no interruption of our depositary relationship with just some minimal paperwork.

        I think the regionals are toast. They will be merged into the big money center banks as they fail. They will all fail, just about. Some of the very small banks are very conservative and well run but the regionals, starting with National City and Suntrust are history.
        Seems like every story I read locally about builders going bankrupt, projects being shut down, etc., Key Bank was the, or one of the, lenders involved. They are calling in loans on builders who appear to still be in good financial shape. You know when a bank is demanding immediate loan payoff from their "good" clients, they are hurting for capital.:eek: Whether or not they are on the brink of collapse I have absolutely no idea; just to be clear.

        This is from a year ago so don't know how current it is, but here's a list of the 50 largest banks in the US by total deposits.

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        • #5
          Re: The Bank Failure Watch Thread

          Here is the interview, take a listen!


          Economist Kaufman Says Fed May Not Raise Rates This Year

          http://media.bloomberg.com/bb/avfile...A0g6xyyb7A.mp3

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          • #6
            Re: The Bank Failure Watch Thread

            .
            Last edited by Nervous Drake; January 19, 2015, 01:33 PM.

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            • #7
              Re: The Bank Failure Watch Thread

              Originally posted by zoog View Post
              Seems like every story I read locally about builders going bankrupt, projects being shut down, etc., Key Bank was the, or one of the, lenders involved. They are calling in loans on builders who appear to still be in good financial shape. You know when a bank is demanding immediate loan payoff from their "good" clients, they are hurting for capital.:eek: Whether or not they are on the brink of collapse I have absolutely no idea; just to be clear.

              This is from a year ago so don't know how current it is, but here's a list of the 50 largest banks in the US by total deposits.
              Front page article in the Oregonian today entitled Real estate is shaky ground for Northwest banks.

              West Coast Bank of Lake Oswego, for example, has consistently made money, even as it experienced a big surge in bad real estate loans. But its stock has fallen like a rock, hitting $7.60 last Wednesday, a 76 percent decline from its yearly high of $32.83 last August.

              Columbia River's stock has declined 80 percent since last September. It hit $4.02 a share on Friday, its lowest ever.

              Even Umpqua Bank, Oregon's largest locally based bank, whose issues with bad loans to date have been relatively minor, has seen its stock fall more than 60 percent in the past 12 months.
              Bend-based Bank of the Cascades and Columbia River both had a third of their total loan portfolio in construction and development loans as of the end of the first quarter. First Independent Bank and Bank of Clark County, both significant players in southwest Washington, had 39.8 percent and 40.2 percent of their total loan portfolios in construction and development.

              Silver Falls Bank, a tiny institution based in Silverton, had an eye-popping 69.8 percent of its loans extended to builders and developers.
              Ah, I should have shorted them all.:rolleyes: Too chicken to bet against the bankers when Daddy Bernanke and Uncle Paulson are only a phonecall away. But maybe the little ones will be sacrificed. If you're into this sort of thing, or concerned, it's probably worth checking out your local/regional banks. Chances are they're in a similar situation, if not worse.

              WCBO

              CBBO

              UMPQ

              CACB

              SVFL

              Longtime Portland bank analyst Jim Bradshaw said in an interview earlier this year that "there is a whiff of bank failure in the air." The convergence of the housing bust, the mounting number of bad loans and the economic slowdown could pose too great a strain for some lenders to survive, he said.

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              • #8
                Re: The Bank Failure Watch Thread

                As I've said before, Bear Sterns beats Bull Oil

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                • #9
                  Re: The Bank Failure Watch Thread

                  The FDIC has upped its list of troubled banks to 90. (up from 76 in March)

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                  • #10
                    Re: The Bank Failure Watch Thread

                    Originally posted by $#* View Post
                    As I've said before, Bear Sterns beats Bull Oil
                    Not so. For investors who do not use leverage Bull Oil has returned several multiples of any short (which can return at best 100% max).

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