Am i reading this right..Gasprom say $250 oil by Xmas????

[GRG55]

Re: Am i reading this right..Gasprom say $250 oil by Xmas????

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?p...5BY&refer=home

Can't be...............just can't!
Mike

To take a page out of Finster's encyclopedia, all this Russian is saying is that the US $ is going to collapse as a currency.

You decide if he's blowing smoke or not on that call...:cool:

[phirang]

Re: Am i reading this right..Gasprom say $250 oil by Xmas????

To take a page out of Finster's encyclopedia, all this Russian is saying is that the US $ is going to collapse as a currency.

You decide if he's blowing smoke or not on that call...:cool:

I won't believe unless he bangs his shoe on the table!

[GRG55]

Re: Am i reading this right..Gasprom say $250 oil by Xmas????

I won't believe unless he bangs his shoe on the table!

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZCm13K4Mq50

:p

[GRG55]

Re: Am i reading this right..Gasprom say $250 oil by Xmas????

phirang:
How does going long on FTO invest in the downside to oil?

A read throught this thread from last year, started by Lukester, may help...
http://www.itulip.com/forums/showthr...18832#poststop

[FRED]

Re: Am i reading this right..Gasprom say $250 oil by Xmas????

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZCm13K4Mq50

:p

[GRG55]

Re: Am i reading this right..Gasprom say $250 oil by Xmas????

Some more comic relief...

Comments ahead of Saudi producer/consumer oil talks
Mon Jun 16, 2008 3:35am EDT

(Reuters) - The world's top oil exporter Saudi Arabia finds the price of fuel unjustifiable and has called a meeting of producers and consumers on June 22 to help find a solution.

The two sides have long blamed each other, but the Saudi cabinet, chaired by King Abdullah, issued instructions to bring them together in Jeddah after oil rose last week by $16 a barrel in just over 24 hours to above $139.

Below are the latest comments by ministers and officials who are attending, or are likely to attend, the event.

PRODUCERS

OPEC
SECRETARY GENERAL -- Abdullah al-Badri
June 10, London, oil near $133: "I ask through you, through Reuters, really we need some calm. We are panicking too much."
"The situation is unbearable as far as we are concerned. I want to say, there is no shortage now and in the future."

OPEC PRESIDENT -- Chakib Khelil, Algerian oil minister
June 10, Algiers, oil near $131: "It would not be wrong to discuss not only the current oil market situation, but also prices and costs because if the price of a barrel is increasing, the price of equipment and services has also tripled in two years."
"We should also not ignore, above all, the central issue which is speculation."

SAUDI ARABIA -- Oil Minister Ali al-Naimi
June 8, Riyadh, oil around $138: The Saudi oil minister agrees with his Pakistani counterpart that a double-digit price rise was unjustified and unrelated to market fundamentals.

IRAN -- Oil Minister Gholamhossein Nozari
June 10, Tehran, oil near $132: "... No one party is on its own able to solve the oil market's problems," said Mohammad Ali Khatibi, Iran's OPEC Governor.

UAE -- Oil Minister Mohammed al-Hamli (will attend)
June 10, Alberta, Calgary, oil near $131: "There is no shortage of crude oil in the market. Inventory levels are huge."
"If you look at prices moving by $10 a day, that doesn't make sense. That's crazy."

KUWAIT -- Oil Minister Mohammad al-Olaim (will attend)
June 11, Kuwait, oil above $133: "The most prominent factors leading to oil price swings are speculation in world markets and the limitations in the number of oil refineries in consuming countries and the decline in the price of the dollar."

VENEZUELA -- Oil Minister Rafael Ramirez
June 12, Caracas, oil above $136: Ramirez said the Saudi meeting would not be a forum to discuss output.
"It is not the place to agree any of these things. I hope the main consumer countries will understand that OPEC exists and that we have developed an extraordinary role in keeping the market balanced."

NIGERIA -- Minister of State for Petroleum Odein Ajumogobia
June 11, Lagos, oil above $134: "I guess it presents a welcome opportunity to review the pretty much unanimous conclusions of the Rome meeting as to the factors giving rise to the current unprecedented high price and volatility."

IRAQ -- Oil Minister Hussain al-Shahristani
June 12, Amman, oil near $134, "We believe that OPEC boosting oil output would not tackle the problem of the rise of oil prices. Even if Saudi Arabia raises production this will not influence the market."
"OPEC is not controlling global oil prices now. Futures market speculators are the ones who are behind the hike in prices."

LIBYA -- OPEC delegation head Shokri Ghanem
June 12, Tripoli, oil near $133: "Speculation is playing an important role but it is not the only factor. It is the erosion of the dollar, it is geopolitics, it is refinery bottlenecks, it is the increase in demand, it is peak oil getting soon."

NON-OPEC
MEXICO -- Energy Minister Georgina Kessel
June 11, Mexico City, oil above $134: "We have been very mindful of the call that has been made to increase production. You know perfectly well the problem that we are facing in Mexico."

CONSUMERS

UNITED STATES -- Energy Secretary Sam Bodman (will attend)
June 11, oil near $132: "The issue is we have a difference of opinion (with Riyadh). The reason we're looking at these very high prices for oil is strictly supply and demand."

JAPAN -- Minister of Economy, Trade and Industry Akira Amari (will attend)
June 13, Tokyo, oil above $136, "Funds are buying futures on the view that there could be a shortage in the future although supplies are sufficient now. Taking action to avoid future shortages, such as raising the production capacity ceiling, would be the best message."

BRITAIN -- Prime Minister Gordon Brown (will attend)
June 12, London, oil near $133, "I am not going to Jeddah expecting there is going to be a short-term change in production."
"I will propose to the king that if necessary I will be happy to convene a follow-up summit at heads-of-government level in London as a venue."

International Energy Agency -- Executive Director Nobuo Tanaka (will attend)
June 12, Paris, oil near $133: "These high prices are not sustainable and jeopardize economic growth globally. The impact is especially acute in developing countries."
"We would welcome an opportunity to act collectively to reassure the market about future demand and supply balances in order to change the perception of extended tightness."

[GRG55]

Re: Am i reading this right..Gasprom say $250 oil by Xmas????

Although nobody believes it will happen, there appears no shortage of people trying to analyze what would occur should it happen...:p

Gazprom CEO's $250 Oil Forecast Is Doom Traders Love

By Michael Janofsky


June 16 (Bloomberg) -- At $250 a barrel for crude oil, food prices double. The U.S., Japan and Europe plunge into deep recession. Companies go bankrupt. Airlines are nationalized. Sport-utility vehicle sales dry up as gasoline tops $7 a gallon.

The scenario may not be unimaginable. Alexei Miller, chief executive officer of OAO Gazprom, the world's biggest natural- gas company, said June 10 that crude will climb to $250 a barrel in the ``foreseeable future.'' Prices may reach that level only after a war or attack on major oil installations, says Jeff Spittel, an analyst at Natixis Bleichroeder Inc. in New York.

While executives, elected leaders and economists disagree on the probability of Miller's vision, there is consensus that the price would jolt everyday life.

``It would be a disaster for all the oil-importing countries, all the democracies and China,'' says James Woolsey, vice president of consultant Booz Allen & Hamilton Inc. in McLean, Virginia, and a former Central Intelligence Agency director. ``And it would be hugely beneficial for the many monarchies and dictatorships that are the main suppliers.''

Some investors are already betting on Miller's forecast. At least 3,008 options contracts have been purchased giving holders the right to buy oil at $250 a barrel in December, data compiled by Bloomberg show. The options closed at 64 cents on June 13.

Rising oil costs have been responsible for a third of global food inflation since 2004, according to London-based research firm New Energy Finance.

``At $7-a-gallon gasoline, you're probably looking at food prices almost double,'' says Peter Beutel, president of energy consultant Cameron Hanover Inc. in New Canaan, Connecticut.

`Massive Shutdown'
Crude oil prices reached a record $139.89 a barrel today, more than double what they were a year earlier. Goldman Sachs Group Inc. and Morgan Stanley forecast the cost may reach $150 in the next few months.

At $250, ``there would be a massive shutdown of companies,'' says Carlos Mattei, procurement vice president for glassmaker Vitro SAB in Monterrey, Mexico. ``Many of these small companies have to choose between paying the gas bill or payroll.''

Still, slowing demand may curb prices. The International Energy Agency, an adviser to 27 oil-consuming nations, last week cut its forecast of world oil use for a fifth month as record costs dented consumption. The U.S. Energy Information Administration expects prices will drop to $120 by December 2009.

``Over a decade or more, after you adjust for inflation, if the price doubled, we would expect demand to fall by 30 percent,'' says Douglas MacIntyre, the agency's senior oil market analyst. U.S. oil consumption fell 5.7 percent from 1973 to 1975 as the Arab oil embargo led to import shortages.

`Incredibly Vested Interests'
Tom Kloza, chief oil analyst for the Oil Price Information Service in Wall, New Jersey, is skeptical about Miller's prediction because it may benefit Gazprom.

``It's silly to take people with incredibly vested interests as having an unfettered, unbiased opinion,'' Kloza says.

Mark Zandi, chief economist at Moody's Economy.com in West Chester, Pennsylvania, says the firm's economic models break down if the price of oil goes over $200 a barrel.

``The U.S. goes into deep recession, as does most of Europe and Japan, and that takes much of the developing economies with it,'' he says. ``I don't see how we get to $250 because the economy is broken long before that, and demand falls and that causes prices to fall.''

Oil at $250 would slash the growth of U.S. gross domestic product by about 2.5 percentage points, says Nigel Gault, chief U.S. economist at Global Insight Inc. in Lexington, Massachusetts.

Nationalized Airlines
The U.S. may be forced to nationalize airlines if oil keeps rising, Barry Sternlicht, founder and CEO of Starwood Capital Group LLC, told a hotel conference June 2 in New York. Carriers won't be able to raise fares enough to cover costs, requiring government subsidies to make tickets affordable.

``I'm not sure the model that the airlines are in right now is going to work unless the U.S. does what many other countries have done,'' Sternlicht says.

US Airways Group Inc. would need an average fare of about $1,000 per round trip to break even with oil at $250, President Scott Kirby says. That's more than triple the current average of $300. Fuel accounted for 31 percent of US Airways' 2007 operating expenses.

Automakers would be devastated, says Daniel Coker, CEO of Northville, Michigan-based Amerigon Inc., a supplier of parts that heat and cool car seats.

``Well, $250 per barrel would cripple the auto industry,'' he says.

Transportation Reduced
Households will cut back on transportation, says John Wolkonowicz, an analyst at Global Insight.

``You certainly won't see mom hauling around the kids in a Chevy Suburban,'' he says.

Imports of smaller cars accounted for 23 percent of U.S. auto sales in 1980, up from 15 percent in 1972, according to Ward's Automotive Reports, which tracks vehicle sales.

At $250 a barrel, even energy-producing states would cut services, New Mexico Governor Bill Richardson said in an e-mail.

``It's not clear that the additional revenue would enable us to meet the inflationary impacts that this would impose on road construction, school lunches and even public safety,'' he said.

[phirang]

Re: Am i reading this right..Gasprom say $250 oil by Xmas????

if oil hits $250, the US auto industry will collapse and start selling mules and buggy whips.

[metalman]

Re: Am i reading this right..Gasprom say $250 oil by Xmas????

Although nobody believes it will happen, there appears no shortage of people trying to analyze what would occur should it happen...:p

Gazprom CEO's $250 Oil Forecast Is Doom Traders Love

By Michael Janofsky


June 16 (Bloomberg) -- At $250 a barrel for crude oil, food prices double. The U.S., Japan and Europe plunge into deep recession. Companies go bankrupt. Airlines are nationalized. Sport-utility vehicle sales dry up as gasoline tops $7 a gallon.

The scenario may not be unimaginable. Alexei Miller, chief executive officer of OAO Gazprom, the world's biggest natural- gas company, said June 10 that crude will climb to $250 a barrel in the ``foreseeable future.'' Prices may reach that level only after a war or attack on major oil installations, says Jeff Spittel, an analyst at Natixis Bleichroeder Inc. in New York.

While executives, elected leaders and economists disagree on the probability of Miller's vision, there is consensus that the price would jolt everyday life.

``It would be a disaster for all the oil-importing countries, all the democracies and China,'' says James Woolsey, vice president of consultant Booz Allen & Hamilton Inc. in McLean, Virginia, and a former Central Intelligence Agency director. ``And it would be hugely beneficial for the many monarchies and dictatorships that are the main suppliers.''

Some investors are already betting on Miller's forecast. At least 3,008 options contracts have been purchased giving holders the right to buy oil at $250 a barrel in December, data compiled by Bloomberg show. The options closed at 64 cents on June 13.

Rising oil costs have been responsible for a third of global food inflation since 2004, according to London-based research firm New Energy Finance.

``At $7-a-gallon gasoline, you're probably looking at food prices almost double,'' says Peter Beutel, president of energy consultant Cameron Hanover Inc. in New Canaan, Connecticut.

`Massive Shutdown'
Crude oil prices reached a record $139.89 a barrel today, more than double what they were a year earlier. Goldman Sachs Group Inc. and Morgan Stanley forecast the cost may reach $150 in the next few months.

At $250, ``there would be a massive shutdown of companies,'' says Carlos Mattei, procurement vice president for glassmaker Vitro SAB in Monterrey, Mexico. ``Many of these small companies have to choose between paying the gas bill or payroll.''

Still, slowing demand may curb prices. The International Energy Agency, an adviser to 27 oil-consuming nations, last week cut its forecast of world oil use for a fifth month as record costs dented consumption. The U.S. Energy Information Administration expects prices will drop to $120 by December 2009.

``Over a decade or more, after you adjust for inflation, if the price doubled, we would expect demand to fall by 30 percent,'' says Douglas MacIntyre, the agency's senior oil market analyst. U.S. oil consumption fell 5.7 percent from 1973 to 1975 as the Arab oil embargo led to import shortages.

`Incredibly Vested Interests'
Tom Kloza, chief oil analyst for the Oil Price Information Service in Wall, New Jersey, is skeptical about Miller's prediction because it may benefit Gazprom.

``It's silly to take people with incredibly vested interests as having an unfettered, unbiased opinion,'' Kloza says.

Mark Zandi, chief economist at Moody's Economy.com in West Chester, Pennsylvania, says the firm's economic models break down if the price of oil goes over $200 a barrel.

``The U.S. goes into deep recession, as does most of Europe and Japan, and that takes much of the developing economies with it,'' he says. ``I don't see how we get to $250 because the economy is broken long before that, and demand falls and that causes prices to fall.''

Oil at $250 would slash the growth of U.S. gross domestic product by about 2.5 percentage points, says Nigel Gault, chief U.S. economist at Global Insight Inc. in Lexington, Massachusetts.

Nationalized Airlines
The U.S. may be forced to nationalize airlines if oil keeps rising, Barry Sternlicht, founder and CEO of Starwood Capital Group LLC, told a hotel conference June 2 in New York. Carriers won't be able to raise fares enough to cover costs, requiring government subsidies to make tickets affordable.

``I'm not sure the model that the airlines are in right now is going to work unless the U.S. does what many other countries have done,'' Sternlicht says.

US Airways Group Inc. would need an average fare of about $1,000 per round trip to break even with oil at $250, President Scott Kirby says. That's more than triple the current average of $300. Fuel accounted for 31 percent of US Airways' 2007 operating expenses.

Automakers would be devastated, says Daniel Coker, CEO of Northville, Michigan-based Amerigon Inc., a supplier of parts that heat and cool car seats.

``Well, $250 per barrel would cripple the auto industry,'' he says.

Transportation Reduced
Households will cut back on transportation, says John Wolkonowicz, an analyst at Global Insight.

``You certainly won't see mom hauling around the kids in a Chevy Suburban,'' he says.

Imports of smaller cars accounted for 23 percent of U.S. auto sales in 1980, up from 15 percent in 1972, according to Ward's Automotive Reports, which tracks vehicle sales.

At $250 a barrel, even energy-producing states would cut services, New Mexico Governor Bill Richardson said in an e-mail.

``It's not clear that the additional revenue would enable us to meet the inflationary impacts that this would impose on road construction, school lunches and even public safety,'' he said.

gasprom is alone with the soon to $250 prediction but he ain't alone seeing $225 in a few years.

Learning From the Oil Shock

June 23, Robert J. Samuelson, Newsweek

The world may have arrived at the equivalent of Peak Oil. Old fields are in decline, while governments limit new oil projects.

We all know that gasoline is at $4 a gallon and oil is at $135 a barrel. But if you think that's the end of the story, don't talk to economist Jeffrey Rubin of CIBC World Markets. By Rubin's reckoning, we've barely passed the halfway point on a steady march upward that will take gasoline to $7 a gallon and oil to $225 by 2012. Though there will be fluctuations, the underlying rise in prices, he says, will have pervasive and often surprising side effects.

[GRG55]

Re: Am i reading this right..Gasprom say $250 oil by Xmas????

gasprom is alone with the soon to $250 prediction but he ain't alone seeing $225 in a few years.

Learning From the Oil Shock

June 23, Robert J. Samuelson, Newsweek

The world may have arrived at the equivalent of Peak Oil. Old fields are in decline, while governments limit new oil projects.

We all know that gasoline is at $4 a gallon and oil is at $135 a barrel. But if you think that's the end of the story, don't talk to economist Jeffrey Rubin of CIBC World Markets. By Rubin's reckoning, we've barely passed the halfway point on a steady march upward that will take gasoline to $7 a gallon and oil to $225 by 2012. Though there will be fluctuations, the underlying rise in prices, he says, will have pervasive and often surprising side effects.

That would be the logical outcome of a steady depreciation of the US$ in an extended reflation cycle needed, as you pointed out elsewhere, to offset the housing bubble collapse.

The Gazprom scenario ($250 by end of this year) seems more a "collapse-of-confidence-in-dollars" hope and wish on the part of some Russians?

I suppose either scenario is possible, but the former seems most probable doesn't it?

[Slimprofits]

Re: Am i reading this right..Gasprom say $250 oil by Xmas????

gasprom is alone with the soon to $250 prediction but he ain't alone seeing $225 in a few years.

Learning From the Oil Shock

June 23, Robert J. Samuelson, Newsweek

"While core inflation may be barely over 2 percent, that's only of solace if you don't eat or drive," Rubin says.

Are the Fed governors secretly a commune of bicycle riding Vegans?