Am i reading this right..Gasprom say $250 oil by Xmas????

[Mega]

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?p...5BY&refer=home

Can't be...............just can't!
Mike

[Starving Steve]

Re: Am i reading this right..Gasprom say $250 oil by Xmas????

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?p...5BY&refer=home

Can't be...............just can't!
Mike

This horse-manure is not going to stop until the governments in the West get together and say, "Enough is enough. We will build atomic power plants everywhere, and like in fifty weeks, not fifty years." They did this with the Manahattan Project during WWII, and this kind of do-or-die programme can be done now for something just as important: atoms for peace.

But maybe some people would rather see the human race die-off. I just visited www.dieoff.org and this is what the radical environments want: everyone to die-off and be gone. :eek:

[Slimprofits]

Re: Am i reading this right..Gasprom say $250 oil by Xmas????

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?p...5BY&refer=home

Can't be...............just can't!
Mike

Not by Xmas of '08, but by Xmas of '09:

The Russians undermined Opec's attempts to talk down the oil market yesterday by warning that crude prices could almost double to $250 a barrel within 18 months.

The prediction from Alexey Miller, chairman of Gazprom, came as the price of oil leaped $2.75 to $137.10 a barrel even though Opec insisted everyone was already "panicking" unnecessarily and stressed there were no shortages.

The soaring value of crude yesterday pushed British wholesale gas prices to new record highs of 100.75p per therm for next winter deliveries. This will put pressure on domestic heating bills, while the current price of motor diesel has already reached £1.30 a litre.
Gazprom said the higher crude prices it expected would drag gas values up too. "We think it [oil] will reach $250 a barrel in the foreseeable future," said Miller, insisting that high demand rather than financial speculation was the primary factor, an argument that runs counter to that put forward by Opec.

The comments came 24 hours after Tony Hayward, the BP chief executive, said supply constraints were partly responsible for the very high crude prices so far.

A spokesman for Gazprom, which is also one of Russia's largest crude producers, expected the price to hit $250 some time in 2009. The company exports gas to Europe at prices linked to oil products for historic reasons and Miller said the current gas price was $410 per 1,000 cubic metres.

And I'm reading elsewhere that Gazprom CEO Miller isn't at all known for issuing headline-grabbing statements, so who knows what to make of this.

[phirang]

Re: Am i reading this right..Gasprom say $250 oil by Xmas????

Hate to say this, but anyone in GZP senior mgmt is a total sack of shyte.

This is complete and utter nonsense: they're talking up their game.

I dare anyone to go long oil and hold it through the Olympics... (save Iran war etc).

[Guest]

Re: Am i reading this right..Gasprom say $250 oil by Xmas????

Phirang - you are a very smart guy, but if you see anything more than a 1 year correction upcoming as we proceed (at a rather hasty clip) towards this described destination, I suggest you are betting on the wrong horse.

[phirang]

Re: Am i reading this right..Gasprom say $250 oil by Xmas????

I agree that oil has a good floor under it: the arabs are doubling-down on the oilsands (i.e. oil > $60/bbl).

That said, I speak as an investor(someone who invests his own money and manages his mom's money), not an analyst who has a salary and can afford to be wrong 40% of the time and still make millions, and I have to watch out for downside risk. Someone like Jimmy rogers may be right about the commodity play, but NO ONE knows what his returns are nor where he really puts his $$$. Us hundred-thousand-aires and < 10M-aires out there can't afford to be underwater 20-40% for several years, while Jimmy can! This is a key distinction to be made!

My point is: I need to preserve my capital, and I will not buy into a mania. There is waaay too much speculative capital inflow into the sector, and I will wait till AFTER the chinese olympics to go long any more oil E&P. Also, a systemic global recession WILL reduce oil prices substantially, back to where they were in Janurary (85-90/bbl) at least, and I'm frankly not so sanguine about this whole commodity circle-jerk going on indefinitely, especially since the main driver, China, is driven on a fuel mix of slave labor and cheap energy, both of which are becoming less sustainable and practical by the day.

Oil may go to $250, but I've put my money that it'll go to $90 first. edit: I did this going long FTO a few days back(props GRG55). I'll put my nuts out there and argue it's a good value if you think there's downside to oil. I've also cashed out of about 1/3 of my E&P that isn't M&A'able.

[metalman]

Re: Am i reading this right..Gasprom say $250 oil by Xmas????

I agree that oil has a good floor under it: the arabs are doubling-down on the oilsands (i.e. oil > $60/bbl).

That said, I speak as an investor(someone who invests his own money and manages his mom's money), not an analyst who has a salary and can afford to be wrong 40% of the time and still make millions, and I have to watch out for downside risk. Someone like Jimmy rogers may be right about the commodity play, but NO ONE knows what his returns are nor where he really puts his $$$. Us hundred-thousand-aires and < 10M-aires out there can't afford to be underwater 20-40% for several years, while Jimmy can! This is a key distinction to be made!

My point is: I need to preserve my capital, and I will not buy into a mania. There is waaay too much speculative capital inflow into the sector, and I will wait till AFTER the chinese olympics to go long any more oil E&P. Also, a systemic global recession WILL reduce oil prices substantially, back to where they were in Janurary (85-90/bbl) at least, and I'm frankly not so sanguine about this whole commodity circle-jerk going on indefinitely, especially since the main driver, China, is driven on a fuel mix of slave labor and cheap energy, both of which are becoming less sustainable and practical by the day.

Oil may go to $250, but I've put my money that it'll go to $90 first. edit: I did this going long FTO a few days back(props GRG55). I'll put my nuts out there and argue it's a good value if you think there's downside to oil. I've also cashed out of about 1/3 of my E&P that isn't M&A'able.

i like the way you think. i really do. your own no opm. but this does NOT strike me as a mania. this has bothered me day one on the oil market...

dot com stock valuations were built on the 'new era' bullshit. housing on the 'american dream of home ownership' bullshit. what dream is an oil mania built on? the end of oil? the end of the world? what kind of dream is that? the world is going to hell in a handbasket and we're all gonna be rich?

high oil prices are bad, bad, bad. for EVERYONE, even the guys who pump it. a one or even two year spike in oil i can buy as a mania, but five years? and with the msm calling it a bubble all the way? same with gold. 'stay away! it's a bubble'! they say since 2004. this is driven by greed and pols and the banks and the press? no. this is driven by shit planning by pols who plan as far ahead as the last election. one fuckup piled atop another for decades.

[raja]

Re: Am i reading this right..Gasprom say $250 oil by Xmas????

I've put my money that it'll go to $90 first. edit: I did this going long FTO a few days back(props GRG55). I'll put my nuts out there and argue it's a good value if you think there's downside to oil. I've also cashed out of about 1/3 of my E&P that isn't M&A'able.

phirang:
How does going long on FTO invest in the downside to oil?
FTO is a refining company, and it seems to me that demand destruction due to a recession would slow down refinery business . . . and all stocks down (except GLD and the like).

And, metalman . . . it seems to me that it doesn't make a difference whether oil's current rise is a mania or not . . . since it's going to go down regardless in a worldwide recession.

[metalman]

Re: Am i reading this right..Gasprom say $250 oil by Xmas????

And, metalman . . . it seems to me that it doesn't make a difference whether oil's current rise is a mania or not . . . since it's going to go down regardless in a worldwide recession.

the value of the stocks/bonds/houses/tulips/etc. in a mania are at the end 90% illusion and 10% real. that's why they correct 90%. if oil is a mania prices have to fall to 10% to 20% off mania peak. you figure oil will fall to $13 - $26?

oil if it's a mania is a fear driven mania. what will make the fear go away?

1. peace breaks out in ME
2. huge oil discoveries like we have not seen in 30 years
3. china and india cut demand
4. oecd get 50% more efficient

all of the above have to happen.

place your bets.

[krakknisse]

Re: Am i reading this right..Gasprom say $250 oil by Xmas????

one fuckup piled atop another for decades.

Metalman: thanks for making my day. You and other ITulipers create that teeny tiny breathing space of truth - telling it like it is. I sit here sighing, but smiling. I wish it weren't so.

[Guest]

Re: Am i reading this right..Gasprom say $250 oil by Xmas????

I just spent two hours this evening reading someone who is calling for all the following

A) $70 oil, which would be close to a 50% correction from here. That's over the next year.

B) The USD index embarking on a historic bull run, get this, up to 150 on the index, to last for the next "several years".

C) Commodities crater - 30% - 50% correction over the next year. Gold down to $700, and silver doing an impersonation of a "swan dive" (or not. His comment was vague there). Then over the next couple of years, gold recovering and rising with the dollar which is presumably powering up to 150 on the index. Yeesh.

D) The international currency markets go into severe stress, and everyone runs into the USD.

E) China and India GDP implodes in the next year, and Europe weakens notably against the USD. Then (get this) the EURO going down by 50% relative to the USD. In short, the US b0nar handily outperforms the Euro. And the US proceeds the least damaged of all. :confused:

F) Coffee, and Wheat, are the two standouts and soar. Australia sees the worst drought in it's history.

Rough calculation of the impact of all the above to my portfolio - devastation. He's calling for the dollar to bust out any minute now and keep right on soaring for years in a historic rally.

Oh. and he's saying the US stock market is a raging buy in this context. And the worst part of all this is, this guy is an astrologer but rather than this affording us a good laugh, he also happens to have a stunningly accurate track record. Corporate clients, and six million page visits on his website. The guy has a reputation that's a decade and a half long.

No, I'm not going to say who it is, as I've embarassed myself enough by saying this much. He's ruined my entire week, as I'm acutely exposed to every trend shift he describes. Just when you'd concluded it is always about the fundamentals, it isn't.

... It's got to be a crock of arrant nonsense, right?? I look around and it makes no sense at all. None, except for oil correcting. But I would be dumbfounded to see oil correct below $90 - $100. And the rest of it makes absolutly no sense to my own radar at all..

[krakknisse]

Re: Am i reading this right..Gasprom say $250 oil by Xmas????

I just spent two hours this evening reading someone who is calling for all the following
...
Rough calculation of the impact of all the above to my portfolio - devastation. He's calling for the dollar to bust out any minute now and keep right on soaring for years in a historic rally.

Oh. and he's saying the US stock market is a raging buy in this context. ... The guy has a reputation that's a decade and a half long... He's ruined my entire week, as I'm acutely exposed to every trend shift he describes.

... It's got to be a crock of arrant nonsense, right?? I look around and it makes no sense at all. None, except for oil correcting. But I would be dumbfounded to see oil correct below $90 - $100. And the rest of it makes absolutly no sense to my own radar at all..

Now, as Lukester is just an ordinary J6P just like me, I assume both Lukester and I will just be crying theoretical tears if this happens. I smell a rat - and I think the rat is in the reputation "that is a decade and a half long". Funny, that coincides with a very, very long boom period (1993->). Also, can he DOCUMENT his predictions BEFORE things actually happened. I'll go with EJ any time.

Take a long look at "Fiat Money Inflation in France: How It Came, What It Brought, and. How It Ended" written in 1912 or something (on Mises.org).

All the income streams derived from sheeple are going down, and banking with them. The psychologic change is palpable, even in my oil-rich country. People simply don't want no more debt. That is, unless the printing presses really start working non-stop. There could be relative shifts between USD, EUR and other regions. But for a new "boom" to happen, inflation would really have to explode. No way that could fail to be good for gold. The other way lies a really deflationary crunch, which is possibly what your astrologer friend is alluding to. Maybe the dollar will improve somewhat. But: "we can guarantee any payout, but not purchasing power". In nominal terms, there could be elements of his prediction that run true. But in terms of purchasing power, no way.

That said, the gold contango is increasing, which is not too good for gold. I think it is a temporary thing. Give it another 6 months, and bankers will be seen worldwide, begging bowl in hand.

[phirang]

Re: Am i reading this right..Gasprom say $250 oil by Xmas????

One of my chinese friends confirmed that the subsidies WILL be reduced this year. When that happens, hold on, oil longs!

This is PURE speculative money flowing into oil: I bought MORE FTO today.

As for FTO: if the economy tanks, yes, they'll sell a little less gas, but the question is: how much did i pay for it? At around $25/sh, you have world-class heavy oil refining for a song!

[Mega]

Re: Am i reading this right..Gasprom say $250 oil by Xmas????

I just spent two hours this evening reading someone who is calling for all the following

A) $70 oil, which would be close to a 50% correction from here. That's over the next year.

B) The USD index embarking on a historic bull run, get this, up to 150 on the index, to last for the next "several years".

C) Commodities crater - 30% - 50% correction over the next year. Gold down to $700, and silver doing an impersonation of a "swan dive" (or not. His comment was vague there). Then over the next couple of years, gold recovering and rising with the dollar which is presumably powering up to 150 on the index. Yeesh.

D) The international currency markets go into severe stress, and everyone runs into the USD.

E) China and India GDP implodes in the next year, and Europe weakens notably against the USD. Then (get this) the EURO going down by 50% relative to the USD. In short, the US b0nar handily outperforms the Euro. And the US proceeds the least damaged of all. :confused:

F) Coffee, and Wheat, are the two standouts and soar. Australia sees the worst drought in it's history.

Rough calculation of the impact of all the above to my portfolio - devastation. He's calling for the dollar to bust out any minute now and keep right on soaring for years in a historic rally.

Oh. and he's saying the US stock market is a raging buy in this context. And the worst part of all this is, this guy is an astrologer but rather than this affording us a good laugh, he also happens to have a stunningly accurate track record. Corporate clients, and six million page visits on his website. The guy has a reputation that's a decade and a half long.

No, I'm not going to say who it is, as I've embarassed myself enough by saying this much. He's ruined my entire week, as I'm acutely exposed to every trend shift he describes. Just when you'd concluded it is always about the fundamentals, it isn't.

... It's got to be a crock of arrant nonsense, right?? I look around and it makes no sense at all. None, except for oil correcting. But I would be dumbfounded to see oil correct below $90 - $100. And the rest of it makes absolutly no sense to my own radar at all..

Luke
Ford & GM are stripping out their plants as fast as they can to make "Euro-cars". You know, the small cars we have here in "Euro-land". Talk round the camp fire is that Ford etc have been "Spoken to" and the message is VERY clear..........."High oil is here to stay".
Mike

[phirang]

Re: Am i reading this right..Gasprom say $250 oil by Xmas????

Luke
Ford & GM are stripping out their plants as fast as they can to make "Euro-cars". You know, the small cars we have here in "Euro-land". Talk round the camp fire is that Ford etc have been "Spoken to" and the message is VERY clear..........."High oil is here to stay".
Mike

I've always wondered this: are Ford and GM horribly managed companies, or are they trying to bankrupt themselves to ditch legacy costs?