Newest Marc Faber interview on Bloomberg

[friendly_jacek]

http://www.bloomberg.com/avp/avp.htm...fKFhHKqPeo.asf

I could not hear what he said about gold but the whole interview sounded awfully deflationary.

Sure enough, everything is dropping hard today (but oil of course).

He lashed out on Feds again and likely the interview will be taken off the website soon.

[phirang]

Re: Newest Marc Faber interview on Bloomberg

He needs to identify the causality rather than re-iterate old-news. He needs to put his nuts on the chopping block and go after the BoJ etc.

[Jim Nickerson]

Re: Newest Marc Faber interview on Bloomberg

http://www.bloomberg.com/avp/avp.htm...fKFhHKqPeo.asf

I could not hear what he said about gold but the whole interview sounded awfully deflationary.

Sure enough, everything is dropping hard today (but oil of course).

He lashed out on Feds again and likely the interview will be taken off the website soon.

Before it became really garbled, he said he would buy gold--but then a sentence or two of what may be qualifications are missing.

He thinks dollar will appreciate against EURO.

[phirang]

Re: Newest Marc Faber interview on Bloomberg

probably said gold is volatile or something...

the guy is credible, but he's very opaque. this is my other beef with MF.

i bought some FTO today... let's hope my knife-catching is up to speed!

[Mega]

Re: Newest Marc Faber interview on Bloomberg

Gold down today!
Mike

[Verrocchio]

Re: Newest Marc Faber interview on Bloomberg

Before it became really garbled, he said he would buy gold--but then a sentence or two of what may be qualifications are missing.

He thinks dollar will appreciate against EURO.

The talking head persisted in pinning him to a specific recommendation, but he wanted to give an overview. In essence his advice was "take a holiday..."

This leaves us with the persistent question of this year, where can a reliable store of value be found? Yah, sure, PMs, but then at what price?

[phirang]

Re: Newest Marc Faber interview on Bloomberg

high ore-grade PM juniors are a great bet... especially since they're so beaten-up.

[friendly_jacek]

Re: Newest Marc Faber interview on Bloomberg

Before it became really garbled, he said he would buy gold--but then a sentence or two of what may be qualifications are missing.

He thinks dollar will appreciate against EURO.

According to http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?p...d=a6vr3uRGjrvw

He said he favors the dollar against the euro, as well as gold. ``I don't see any compelling value in equities, real estate or commodities,'' Faber said from Zurich. ``Contrary to the last 25 years, we are in a period of de-leveraging. Corporate profits in particular are still far too high for 2009 and have to be adjusted downwards, and valuations become less compelling.''


Sounds like severe deflation to me.

While we have the helicopter Ben, Faber could be correct. As Fed tries to burst the commodities bubble, they can trigger something big.

Is this the Ka event coming, as promised by iTulip? Any official words from Mr Jensen? Should we sell all our investments? As many here, a have a stash of PM.

[Guest]

Re: Newest Marc Faber interview on Bloomberg

Is this the Ka event coming, as promised by iTulip?

Many times over, have we surmised the imminent arrival of the Ka event in the past two years. You think signs portend to heightened risk of KA today. But then why are small caps outperforming the large caps today if we are staring into an imminent deflation? Maybe these stock sector comparative performances are rendering Faber's hints at an across the board deflation just one more of a long string of anticipated Ka's that never actually arrived?

VANGUARD SMALL CAP VISGX VS LARGE CAP VPMCX - SMALLCAP OUTPERFORMS.jpg

[GRG55]

Re: Newest Marc Faber interview on Bloomberg

Many times over, have we surmised the imminent arrival of the Ka event in the past two years. You think signs portend to heightened risk of KA today. But then why are small caps outperforming the large caps today if we are staring into an imminent deflation? Maybe these stock sector comparative performances are rendering Faber's hints at an across the board deflation just one more of a long string of anticipated Ka's that never actually arrived?

[ATTACH]402[/ATTACH]

Because if there is one sector in the market where analyst consensus profit forecasts are likely to be revised upward in 2008, it's the commodity producers.

[touchring]

Re: Newest Marc Faber interview on Bloomberg

I sold almost all my gold on the 2nd day of the interest rate drop that led to gold plunge, and bought SKF later. I regreted not selling everything (and probably not selling a day earlier) and not buying more SKF after that.

Because if there is one sector in the market where analyst consensus profit forecasts are likely to be revised upward in 2008, it's the commodity producers.

[Guest]

Re: Newest Marc Faber interview on Bloomberg

He said he favors the dollar against the euro, as well as gold. ``I don't see any compelling value in equities, real estate or commodities,'' Faber said from Zurich. ``Contrary to the last 25 years, we are in a period of de-leveraging. Corporate profits in particular are still far too high for 2009 and have to be adjusted downwards, and valuations become less compelling.'' ... ... ... Sounds like severe deflation to me. ... ... ... Is this the Ka event coming, as promised by iTulip? .

I could not hear what he said about gold but the whole interview sounded awfully deflationary. Sure enough, everything is dropping hard today (but oil of course).

Friendly_Jacek -

You see this is what the problem is on these pages - as the inflation hedges get twisted this way and that by strong currents in their bull market, every time there is a savage pullback people seize on it and start building theories that a massive deflationary wave is looming, or within days of striking us. Your own comment above illustrates the point. An entire thread full of people reinforcing each other's views that "Faber had just rung the bell" and all the "dumb money in commodities" would turn into the "pigs that get slaughtered". The thread gets longer, everybody reinforces what started out as an open question until in the space of maybe half an hour the "new wisdom" is that there are massive inflation bearish currents traveling through the commodities markets.

Meanwhile Agence France Presse reports today that China'a BAOSTEEL as well as Nippon Steel of Japan have just agreed to pay Rio Tinto 85% more for large steel contracts than just a year ago. Now correct me if I'm wrong, but I was under the impression the Chinese are not in the habit of playing softball at such negotiations. How do we spell PRICING POWER for the Billitons and Rio Tinto's? Hmm. This is seriously mucking up all the prognostications of the imminent global deflation pundits. As if that weren't awkward enough, now we turn around and find that this irksome Marc Faber, whom we all had concluded in this thread was leading the charge for a new structural wave of deflation to summarily pop the global commodities which are becoming utterly "nonsensical" - is now flip flopping all over again and proclaiming he "favors commodities as inflation quickens"?? What's an honest investor to do? One week Faber is casting dark hints about deflation in commodities, and two weeks later he's favoring them, rendering everyone who was sagely agreeing with his first call on this thread to suddenly have to rethink everything.

These deflationary rumors are bunk. They keep popping up, like little pimples in the discussion, all pink and rosy, claiming "looka-me, I'm a new candidate for smart contrarians!" except they never actually are. This evening I read a quote of Warren Buffet - on FALL STREET - stating flatly that all claims that the oil price today is "all about speculation" are false, and the overhwelming majority of today's price action in petroleum is STILL about supply and demand. How many people around here have a religious belief that this is a "market driven distortion" and have a supreme sense that they hold the keys to the truth on this matter? Apparently Warren Buffet is telling them even this cherished thought is wrong. What is all this constant ominous muttering about deflation surprising all of the foolish "one-way-bet-Charlies" who don't see anything but inflation stretching out to the horizon ... as far as the eye can see. There are some very large contradictions staring us all in the face on this notion. I've just pointed out a few. The problem is, when people get into the "mood" to start spotting deflation harbingers everywhere, they start quoting week old events, or even day old events, as though these were valid hints of a macro trend change. Even six month events are USELESS as harbingers of trend changes. You can barely see any useful hints of macro trends from three, four or five years of trend in a single clear direction.

Why is it that we can't spot ourselves, when we start conjuring up "clear hints of the demise of inflation into deflation, from week-old data? When the fear is breezing around, everybody seems to buy into that week old data and swear they've spotted a new trend. Look how many people here SWEAR that after the Olympics China will collapse into a puddle of whimpering deflationary withdrawal. And just think today, only six or twelve months before this presumed "collapse of demand", they are agreeing to 85% increases in major steel contracts with Rio Tinto? What a crazy crazy world, eh? Big, 1/3 billion people strong CHINA, is going to turn around on a dime, like a svelte little ballet dancer, after the Olympics, and say "ah! That's it folks! No more ravenouse commodities demand from us! Our Olympics are now over, and all that crap in the commodities we were agreeing to pay double for a year ago is now OVER! Everybody take note that we are now officially on a buyer's strike!! :rolleyes: :rolleyes:

To my view, this is nonsense forecasting. A 1.3 billion people strong consumer is attributed such a vanishing momentum of consumption that we might all as well be sitting in a tea parlor in empty space, where gravity does not hold, as we watch this lumbering giant come to a perfect standstill from the run it's been engaged in for the past twenty years. Baloney. Here's Marc Faber - just when everybody thought they had him all figured out as a savvy early spotter of deflation.

____________


Marc Faber Favors Commodities as Inflation Quickens (Update3)

By Patrick Rial and Lynn Thomasson

June 24 (Bloomberg) -- Japanese stocks, Asian real estate and commodities are investors' best bets as faster inflation erodes returns in the rest of the world's markets, investor Marc Faber said.

``Demand for commodities and oil will not vanish,'' Faber, the Gloom, Boom & Doom Report publisher, said at a conference in Tokyo. ``The shift in demand that drove up commodity prices is not going to go away.''

Record prices for commodities have accelerated inflation around the world and lifted shares of raw material and energy producers. Oil more than doubled since the beginning of last year, while products including coal, rice and fertilizer also reached record highs in 2008.

Faber, who told investors to buy gold as the metal began a seven-year rally, predicted inflation may boost Japanese share prices and Asian property will benefit as more people gain access to mortgages.

``For Japan, inflation is favorable,'' said Faber, who oversees about $300 million at Hong Kong-based Marc Faber Ltd. It ``will bring cash out of the mattress and into equities and real estate.''

Japan's benchmark inflation measure, which excludes fresh food and includes energy costs, climbed 0.9 percent in April from a year earlier and rose 1.2 percent in March, the fastest pace since 1998, according to the statistics bureau. Japan's Topix Index has rallied 17 percent since March 17, when the measure sank to the lowest since June 2005. The gain pared the stock benchmark's decline for the year to 8.6 percent.

To contact the reporters on this story: Patrick Rial in Tokyo at prial@bloomberg.net; Lynn Thomasson in New York at lthomasson@bloomberg.net.

[rj1]

Re: Newest Marc Faber interview on Bloomberg

I'll state for the record that I agree with Lukester on how a lot of these people on these forums get wrapped up with something stupid that just does not reflect reality.

Seriously, this needs to stop. The reason a lot of us come here is cause we reject the mainstream viewpoint of the markets and want an alternative view. But coming on here being a raving lunatic about nothing is just stupid. Every thread I see started by Rajiv or Mega I don't click on, because they say nothing. Nothing! Mega posts up an article and says "OH MY GOD! IT'S STARTING! THE END OF THE UNITED STATES IS NEAR!" Why do the people that run this site allow this guy to post up such complete drivel and nonsense? I'm not saying censor him as I think that goes against the spirit of the internet, but just have him put all his thoughts in one thread instead of creating 20.

To me, I'm just seeing lots of inflation personally.

[metalman]

Re: Newest Marc Faber interview on Bloomberg

I'll state for the record that I agree with Lukester on how a lot of these people on these forums get wrapped up with something stupid that just does not reflect reality.

Seriously, this needs to stop. The reason a lot of us come here is cause we reject the mainstream viewpoint of the markets and want an alternative view. But coming on here being a raving lunatic about nothing is just stupid. Every thread I see started by Rajiv or Mega I don't click on, because they say nothing. Nothing! Mega posts up an article and says "OH MY GOD! IT'S STARTING! THE END OF THE UNITED STATES IS NEAR!" Why do the people that run this site allow this guy to post up such complete drivel and nonsense? I'm not saying censor him as I think that goes against the spirit of the internet, but just have him put all his thoughts in one thread instead of creating 20.

To me, I'm just seeing lots of inflation personally.

said it before and will say it again... limit post to a min. of 100 words. give me some meat, but keep it brief. oh, and gimme some pics the way finster and bart, do.

[Guest]

Re: Newest Marc Faber interview on Bloomberg

But coming on here being a raving lunatic about nothing is just stupid. Every thread I see started by Rajiv or Mega I don't click on, because they say nothing. Nothing! ...

Sorry rj1 - I'm not on board with you on this at all. Rajiv posts some of the best stuff in this community and I always enjoy Miker's "stuff" thrown in there. Occasionally he's quite trenchant with the caustic one-liner's. Matter of opinion. My post was making a very narrow point only - that all the fearful mutterings about imminent deflation seem to not have absorbed any convictions about the main theme of this website - that the primary venue for the next decade will be inflation. What's more, it appears that as we progress into 2008 Janszen is if anything increasing his estimation of the potential of that inflation - as it's now fully translated into a global event.

The post I made was about the displays of "cognitive dissonance" in cases like the Marc Faber's doomy prognoses of a sharp "balloon burst" resulting in deflation in commodities, which is a fear-filled superficial read of what's occurring in this sector to my mind. No-one then remarks how this is then followed mere weeks later by his robust endorsement of commodities going forwards. He's a great analyst, but this astonishing flip-flop was one of his sillier moments. I only wanted to call this to Friendly_Jacek's attention because we'd discussed it earlier on.

Personally I never have the slightest problem with anyone's posts here - short, long, relevant, irrelevant, or whatever. In fact, the more I disagree with them, the more I enjoy them. I don't even mind Jim Nickerson making snarky remarks about my own family. Verbal diarrhea? No problem, just put it out there and I'll read or skip whatever I please. I enjoy the wide variety and am perplexed by people who feel a need to police each other's content in order to produce a "more meaningful community" Reminds me of boy scouts, which I did my level best to escape from as a kid.

If anything, I'm allergic to the entire idea of policing content. I like a good dose of anarchy raucously mingled in with the great ideas, and I find plenty of great posts scattered about among the more frivolous stuff regardless. Not on board with you here.

Respectfully.