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Interesting T-bond Yield Changes...

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  • Interesting T-bond Yield Changes...

    Anybody notice what happened to the yield curve today? The Fed's new
    hawkish tone is being blamed, but surely they cannot be happy that the curve is flattening, when the banking system desperately needs the opposite?
    Two-Year U.S. Notes Drop Most Since 1996 on Fed Rate Outlook

    By Sandra Hernandez and Anchalee Worrachate
    June 9 (Bloomberg) -- Treasuries fell, pushing yields on two-year notes up the most in 12 years, on growing speculation policy makers in the U.S. and Europe will raise borrowing costs this year to damp accelerating inflation.

    Two-year notes, which are more sensitive to changes in the central bank's interest-rate policy, tumbled after New York Federal Reserve President Timothy F. Geithner said following a speech in New York today ``tighter monetary policy'' may be needed globally. U.K. debt dropped the most in a decade after a report showed U.K. producer-price inflation accelerated to the fastest pace in two decades.

    ``People are waking up to a more hawkish rhetoric from the Fed,'' said Dominic Konstam, head of interest-rate strategy at Credit Suisse Securities USA LLC, one of the 20 primary dealers that trade with the U.S. central bank. ``It's mainly thinking about the central banks shifting gears a little bit, being much more hawkish on inflation.''

    Two-year yields rose 33 basis points, or 0.33 percentage point, to 2.71 percent at 4:45 p.m. in New York, according to BG Cantor Market Data. The 2.625 percent security maturing in May 2010 fell 5/82, or $6.25 per $1,000 face amount, to 99 27/32. Ten-year yields rose 8 basis points to 3.99 percent.

    Yields on two-year notes touched 2.74 percent, the biggest one-day increase since March 1996, when they rose 36 basis points as faster-than-expected job growth dimmed prospects for the Fed to keep lowering interest rates.

    Two-year yields rose to within 128 basis points of 10-year yields, the smallest gap since Jan. 17. The spread reached a 4 1/2 year high of 207 basis points on March 6...
    http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?p...d=aO_bYaINcVAI

  • #2
    Re: Interesting T-bond Yield Changes...

    SO basically, the central can raise FFR, but then they'll create some other mechanism for banks to borrow at less than the FFR or defer the itnerest indefinitely in exchange for toxic assets or whatnot.

    I think it's the willingless of the fed to hold whatever steaming turd the banks hand them hammers the yield curve: we know they're trying to manipulate the market via expectations, but i think the market is now calling their bluff.

    The fed is running out of room, unless they got all the toxic was off the bank's balance sheets... but then, the economy is already in the shitter... I just see this balance-sheet chicanery as more relevant now than the FFR... especially given how opaque and huge it is!

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    • #3
      Re: Interesting T-bond Yield Changes...

      Originally posted by GRG55 View Post
      Anybody notice what happened to the yield curve today? The Fed's new
      hawkish tone is being blamed, but surely they cannot be happy that the curve is flattening, when the banking system desperately needs the opposite?
      Two-Year U.S. Notes Drop Most Since 1996 on Fed Rate Outlook

      By Sandra Hernandez and Anchalee Worrachate
      June 9 (Bloomberg) -- Treasuries fell, pushing yields on two-year notes up the most in 12 years, on growing speculation policy makers in the U.S. and Europe will raise borrowing costs this year to damp accelerating inflation.

      Two-year notes, which are more sensitive to changes in the central bank's interest-rate policy, tumbled after New York Federal Reserve President Timothy F. Geithner said following a speech in New York today ``tighter monetary policy'' may be needed globally. U.K. debt dropped the most in a decade after a report showed U.K. producer-price inflation accelerated to the fastest pace in two decades.

      ``People are waking up to a more hawkish rhetoric from the Fed,'' said Dominic Konstam, head of interest-rate strategy at Credit Suisse Securities USA LLC, one of the 20 primary dealers that trade with the U.S. central bank. ``It's mainly thinking about the central banks shifting gears a little bit, being much more hawkish on inflation.''

      Two-year yields rose 33 basis points, or 0.33 percentage point, to 2.71 percent at 4:45 p.m. in New York, according to BG Cantor Market Data. The 2.625 percent security maturing in May 2010 fell 5/82, or $6.25 per $1,000 face amount, to 99 27/32. Ten-year yields rose 8 basis points to 3.99 percent.

      Yields on two-year notes touched 2.74 percent, the biggest one-day increase since March 1996, when they rose 36 basis points as faster-than-expected job growth dimmed prospects for the Fed to keep lowering interest rates.

      Two-year yields rose to within 128 basis points of 10-year yields, the smallest gap since Jan. 17. The spread reached a 4 1/2 year high of 207 basis points on March 6...
      http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?p...d=aO_bYaINcVAI
      And does that in turn put even more pressure on...
      Washington Mutual Falls to Lowest in 16 Years on Loss Estimate

      By Ari Levy and Linda Shen
      June 9 (Bloomberg) -- Washington Mutual Inc. plunged to a 16-year low, leading a slide in mortgage companies, after UBS AG analyst Eric Wasserstrom said the Seattle-based lender is underestimating losses on home loans.

      Washington Mutual, known as WaMu, will lose about $21.7 billion from mortgages through 2011, more than the $12 billion to $19 billion the company forecasted, Wasserstrom wrote in a report today. He cut his 12-month share price target to $8.50 from $11. The lender fell to $6.25 today.

      Concern about mortgage industry earnings flared anew as Lehman Brothers Holdings Inc., one of the leading underwriters of mortgage securities, reported a loss three times worse than the most pessimistic analyst's estimate.

      WaMu, the biggest U.S. savings and loan by assets, had ranked among the largest U.S. lenders to home buyers with the weakest credit...
      http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?p...d=ajeuNHMX1B3M
      And is anybody surprised by this?


      Moody's May Cut Ratings of Washington Mutual Asset-Backed Bonds

      By Patricia Kuo
      June 10 (Bloomberg) -- Washington Mutual Inc., a U.S. mortgage provider, may have the credit rating on $10.8 billion of asset-backed bonds cut by Moody's Investors Service.

      Moody's said the possible downgrade reflects its concern that the lender's focus on California and Florida, which have been among the hardest hit by the housing recession, ``may pose incremental credit risk to noteholders beyond Moody's range of expectations.'' [now there's a truly brilliant piece of analysis :rolleyes:]

      Washington Mutual, whose shares have fallen 85 percent in the past year, reported its first loss since 1997 in the fourth quarter after writing down the value of its home-mortgage unit by $1.6 billion and setting aside $1.5 billion to cover bad loans. The stock plunged to a 16-year low yesterday after UBS AG analyst Eric Wasserstrom said it's underestimating losses from home loans...
      http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?p...d=asB.mEIIEp.Q


      Comment


      • #4
        Re: Interesting T-bond Yield Changes...

        Originally posted by phirang View Post
        SO basically, the central can raise FFR, but then they'll create some other mechanism for banks to borrow at less than the FFR or defer the itnerest indefinitely in exchange for toxic assets or whatnot.

        I think it's the willingless of the fed to hold whatever steaming turd the banks hand them hammers the yield curve: we know they're trying to manipulate the market via expectations, but i think the market is now calling their bluff.

        The fed is running out of room, unless they got all the toxic was off the bank's balance sheets... but then, the economy is already in the shitter... I just see this balance-sheet chicanery as more relevant now than the FFR... especially given how opaque and huge it is!
        Looks to me we are setting up for the next phase in the credit crisis. I agree that the Fed's limited options are becoming more precarious daily. It's either save the Dollar, or save the banks. Which way do you think they are going to go?

        Comment


        • #5
          Re: Interesting T-bond Yield Changes...

          Originally posted by GRG55 View Post
          Looks to me we are setting up for the next phase in the credit crisis. I agree that the Fed's limited options are becoming more precarious daily. It's either save the Dollar, or save the banks. Which way do you think they are going to go?
          I don't believe Fed can fight the bond markets.
          But, if the stocks bleed enough (and looks like they will in a few weeks), the bonds will go up some restoring the equilibrium. I think banks (or some at least) are toast.

          Edit: I just found that saudis are jawboning the oil supply increase. I guess this is the way Feds and friends will try to prop the falling markets.
          Last edited by friendly_jacek; June 10, 2008, 11:29 AM. Reason: news

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