Gas Prices Clobber McMansions, SUV Makers

[GRG55]

Re: America's Future - Buses

I think we need not look further than Latin America and the third world to catch a glimpse of our future at $7-10 per gallon of gas. Or maybe I should say, back to the past, like the '50's and '60's, when Greyhound and Trailways were how America's less affluent travled the country.

The huge suburban sprawl around major American cities cannot be undone overnight, or even in the mid-term future. There's too much money invested in that infratructure of single family homes and suburbs. (I disagree with Kuntzler on that).

Buses. It's a solution that can be implemented a lot faster than rail systems, is more compatible to the design of American cities like Atlanta, Los Angeles, Houston, that grew up after WW 2, AND, bus systems do not need nearly as much lead time, which may be important if gas prices continue to spiral.

Latin America, for most part, does not have good rail systems, not can majority of population afford cars. But most have decent bus systems that connect the major cities and mid-size towns. And, most of the largest cities, have good internal bus systems.

I'm most familiar with with Houston's Park and Ride. There are major parking lots in strategic sities in suburbs and outer city. Folks can drive, park in lot all day, take the bus downtown, then pick up car for a short ride home. The bus systems in cities like LA, Houston, etc., could be expanded, so cars in suburban areas are used m0ore for shorter trips, while longer trips are done via bus. Inconvenient, but if gas prices go high enough, it will be used by bttom half of income scale.

Also noteworthy, at height of last gasoline price hikes (around 1981 or so), Houston voters approved a $.01 sales tax to finance an improved public transportation infrastructure. That's where money for Park and Ride came from. If gas prices get high enough, voters in other cities may do the same.

Another possibility are motorcycles, ubiquitous in places like Thailand and India. If gasoline prices go high enough, U.S. authrities may try to make motorcycle riding safer and therfore more popular, by legislating motorcycle only lanes, etc. etc..

Interesting thought. Maybe that's why Cerberus owns:



Anniston, Alabama
North American Bus Industries’ (NABI) sole business is the sale, assembly and post-delivery support of a full range of heavy-duty diesel, compressed natural gas (CNG) and liquefied natural gas (LNG) powered, standard-floor and low-floor transit buses.



and...





Fort Valley, Georgia
Blue Bird is one of the world's leading bus manufacturers. The company offers a complete line of Type A, C and D school buses in a variety of options and configurations as well as commercial buses, recreational vehicles and motor coaches.




That way, when Chrysler goes bust they still win... :rolleyes:

[c1ue]

Re: Gas Prices Clobber McMansions, SUV Makers

Buses won't do squat.

When I still worked 45 miles away in San Jose, I tried to take buses several times.

It was not a scheduling issue; everything ran on time.

The problem was that it would take over an hour to go 3 miles. Because the population density is so low and conversely everything is so spread out, the bus must stop dozens of times in order to go somewhere which a private car can reach in 15 minutes.

The places where buses work such as Brazil - are all very dense. Density means greater efficiency in reaching a store (smaller service radius), means greater profitability for public transport, and the list goes on.

As for Los Angeles...

While there is no short way to improve the situation, there are lots of very straightforward medium and long term ways:

1) Zoning councils to identify live/shop/work areas and permit the building of combined residential/office/retail - so long as every location has a minimum density achieved. It is not even necessary to flatten a bunch of suburbs, just go to one of the many dilapidated downtown LA areas of extreme poverty and rebuild.

2) Impose a local gasoline tax for which the proceeds would go towards building/incentivizing public transport. Put in HOV lanes on the roads.

3) Stop issuing building permits in the boonies, or at least impose huge infrastructure payments to compensate.

etc etc.

In fact, a 'big plan' such as building a subway in a 5 or 10 mile radius around downtown LA combined with 2 or 3 such developments would yield results in 10 years.

[Starving Steve]

Re: Gas Prices Clobber McMansions, SUV Makers

Buses won't do squat.

When I still worked 45 miles away in San Jose, I tried to take buses several times.

It was not a scheduling issue; everything ran on time.

The problem was that it would take over an hour to go 3 miles. Because the population density is so low and conversely everything is so spread out, the bus must stop dozens of times in order to go somewhere which a private car can reach in 15 minutes.

The places where buses work such as Brazil - are all very dense. Density means greater efficiency in reaching a store (smaller service radius), means greater profitability for public transport, and the list goes on.

As for Los Angeles...

While there is no short way to improve the situation, there are lots of very straightforward medium and long term ways:

1) Zoning councils to identify live/shop/work areas and permit the building of combined residential/office/retail - so long as every location has a minimum density achieved. It is not even necessary to flatten a bunch of suburbs, just go to one of the many dilapidated downtown LA areas of extreme poverty and rebuild.

2) Impose a local gasoline tax for which the proceeds would go towards building/incentivizing public transport. Put in HOV lanes on the roads.

3) Stop issuing building permits in the boonies, or at least impose huge infrastructure payments to compensate.

etc etc.

In fact, a 'big plan' such as building a subway in a 5 or 10 mile radius around downtown LA combined with 2 or 3 such developments would yield results in 10 years.

Rather than to impose restrictions on people moving away from cities, and rather than to impose special taxes on building permits in the boonies, why not LET PEOPLE DECIDE FOR THEMSELVES where they want to live?

Or, if city planners want people to move back to the cities, why not have planners LOWER LAND COSTS within cities? Why not have planners provide for AFFORDABLE HOUSING next to parks, next to scenic harbours, or next to city beaches?

But when you talk to contemporary urban planners, you hear about their density restrictions, their architecture schemes, street lighting, cobblestones, public transit routes, zoning schemes, and decorative signage; you hear about their buzzwords, acranims, and special programmes..... You hear about everything BUT making cities affordable and liveable to the working middle class, the Joe and Jill Six-packs of the world.

[World Traveler]

Re: Gas Prices Clobber McMansions, SUV Makers

I agree with your suggestions about how cities should be re-engineered and re-designed. I also agree that rail is a great solution long-term and I think it should be pursued. It's just that it would take longer to implement - getting the land, fighting lawsuits from dispossed homeowners and neighborhood associations, and getting the necessary capital to make the investment, etc. I just don't think it can happen quickly enough to respond to today's spiraling gasoline prices.

Meanwhile...

Houston metropolitan area has all the same issues of being very spread-out and diffuse, same as Los Angeles, here there are also large suburban areas 20-40 miles from downtown Houston. But the Park and Ride system works very well here and is very popular, because of the way it was designed.
a. parking is free at the huge parking lots at Park and Ride centers
b. Park and Ride centers are located in multiple strategic locations in outlying area, most people are within a 15-20 minute ride to a center
c. during rush hour peak, there is a bus leaving terminal every 10-15 minutes and there is a published time table
d. all major freeways have HOV lanes, which Park and Ride buses use
e. the bus never stops once it leaves the Park and Ride center, till it reaches its destination (now downtown Houston)
f. the cost of using Park and Ride bus is about the same as driving your car - i.e. gas and parking downtown (it's cheaper if car depreciation considered)

Park and Ride is very popular here - I've know lots of very well-paid people that used it. They loved it because they could relax during their commute downtown. I worked in downtown Houston for 25 years and can attest that the time to downtown using Park and Ride was about same as driving myself.

A lot of people in Houston work outside downtown, but there are other concentrated business centers that Park and Ride could expand to, if gas prices go high enough. Like Greenspoint, NASA, West Side Energy Corridor, and Galleria area. Buses could be limited to minimal stops, one in downtown and one at Greeway, one at Galleria, etc. to speed up the journey. Then folks could walk rest of way to work, like they do downtown.

This type of Park and Ride system is viable in other U.S. cities, because most have one or more concentrated business areas. Park and Ride could never serve everyone, but it could serve a lot of people.

Interim solutions have to be looked at and buses is an interim solution that can be implemented most quickly.

I spent 3 weeks in Ecuador in 1995, lived with an Ecuadorian family while studying Spanish, and used only local transportation. Ecuador is a poor country and few had cars, but between buses and taxis, Quito was very easy to get around. I also travelled to several other Ecuadorian cities in the Andes range, using local bus companies that specialized in inter-city travel. I was very impressed, minimal rail systems, but Ecuador was an easy country to get around in. I've not travelled much in Mexico, but from what I've read, it's transport system is very similar to Ecuador's.

Using buses is a hassle and most of the people on iTulip have enough financial reserves that they don't have to put up with the irritation.

But there is a large segment in U.S. that is poor and getting poorer. They would use buses over cars as a cheap alternative, if bus transport is available and gas prices keep going up.

America's middle class is struggling with debt and if Park and Ride type transport systems were available to get them to work, I believe they would use them, based on what I've seen in Houston.

I was a kid in the '50's and a teenager in the '60's, before air travel became affordable and wide spread. To get from city to city, the lower middle class took the Greyhound bus, or a train if one was available. The U.S. has let it passenger rail system deteriorate to the point, where it would take a while to ramp up again. Greyhound bus type solutions could be an interim phase till passenger rail is back to where it should be.

[zoog]

Re: Gas Prices Clobber McMansions, SUV Makers

Interesting discussion.

I agree that buses are a good intermediate solution for cities that do not have a rail system in place. Not only do they take a long time to plan and construct, but they cost a lot of money... light rail costs an average of $35 million per mile last I checked, sometimes over $100 million per mile. Heavy-gauge rail, which would be more likely for city-to-city or connecting far-flung suburbs of very large cities, costs even more. I'm not saying buses are cheap, but a lot less in initial cost than light rail, and faster to implement.

Light rail does not serve as a complete public transit system anyway. It is simply too expensive and logistically / politically / NIMBY-ly impossible to lay the tracks down everywhere. Light rail works well in combination with a bus system. The buses are much more flexible and can go places light rail will never go. A well-planned system puts rail lines in areas where they can serve a lot of people, and depends on buses to reach out from the rail line. For those who can and choose to still drive, driving to a park-and-ride replaces taking a bus to the transit station. Besides, having the buses out there provides a relatively quick alternative shuttle when the light rail system goes down due to a wreck, electrical problems, ice storm freezing the lines, etc. Been riding light rail for almost a decade here in Portland and while it's usually on time and reliable, these things do happen!

But even with buses, no public transit system will ever be able to pick up everyone in the city at their doorstep and drop them off right in front of their destination. The operating costs just don't work out to take public transit everywhere. We do love our cars in America... but along with that we're just kinda lazy. Higher gas prices will motivate more people to give up driving and take public transit, or walk, or bike, or some combination. But there will always be some who, for various reasons, will refuse to go anywhere without their own personal motorized transport.

[seanm123]

Re: Gas Prices Clobber McMansions, SUV Makers

NY times reported on the issue this week,

[ax]

Re: Gas Prices Clobber McMansions, SUV Makers

I had said in another thread that about $8/gallon would make me consider alternative transportation/new job. CIBC is predicting $7/gallon by 2010....

http://research.cibcwm.com/economic_...oad/sjun08.pdf

[The Outback Oracle]

Re: Gas Prices Clobber McMansions, SUV Makers

Well...here in Aus "Gas" as you call it is about $6.00 for one of your little US gallons. There has been a recent spike with teh oil price. Initially, I noticed this seemed to cause a slowing of traffic on the highways...however this effect has now faded.
I set out early this morning to travel the 100 odd miles to my business from my new domicile(I am semi-retiring). Suffice to say the highway was chockers with traffic by 5.30 am all of whom are people who are doing this trip back and forward each day. At the speed limit of 110K I was the slowest vehicle on the road....so $6.00 Gas is certainly not sufficiently expensive to stop the profligacy!!

[c1ue]

Re: Gas Prices Clobber McMansions, SUV Makers

Rather than to impose restrictions on people moving away from cities, and rather than to impose special taxes on building permits in the boonies, why not LET PEOPLE DECIDE FOR THEMSELVES where they want to live?

Or, if city planners want people to move back to the cities, why not have planners LOWER LAND COSTS within cities? Why not have planners provide for AFFORDABLE HOUSING next to parks, next to scenic harbours, or next to city beaches?

Steve,

I appreciate your libertarian sentiment.

However, the problem is that individuals don't build roads, railroads, utility substations, etc, nor do individuals grant building permits.

A significant reason why we have sprawl - besides everyone's desire to have the mansion - is the corrupt loop between city/county planning and developers.

Surely you can see the potential for abuse?

Developer funds politician to Mayor/Supervisor/whatever. Politician appoints city planner. City planner approves new housing project for developer including roads and utilities. Developer makes millions converting farmland into McMansions and strip malls.

Too long has this dynamic been ignored since the cost of living in said McMansions was relatively low due to low gasoline prices.

In fact, you can see the smaller cities in California gradually creep in one or more directions - leaving a slime trail of ghettos and dysfunctional areas behind like some strange urban hermit crab.

After all, why rejuvenate an existing area when the city can just build newer and better somewhere relatively nearby?

And if a developer makes the money, so much better than the gaggle of existing homeowners in an area.

With any luck the incoming recession will shift priorities into more universally beneficial choices.

[GRG55]

Re: Gas Prices Clobber McMansions, SUV Makers

Steve,
A significant reason why we have sprawl - besides everyone's desire to have the mansion - is the corrupt loop between city/county planning and developers.

Don't know if this applies in the USA, but up here in Canada we have a long post-WWII history of municipal governments populated and controlled by property interest representatives.

Long time Edmonton Mayor William Hawrelak is but one example:

...In 1958 Edmonton alderman Ed Leger presented a petition to city council that called for an investigation into the city administration. Leger alleged that Hawrelak had used his position to financially benefit himself, his family, and his associates.

An ensuing inquiry by Justice Marshall Porter found Hawrelak guilty of "gross misconduct" - including, in some cases, attempts to influence rezoning of land he owned - in six different land transactions. Hawrelak resigned September 9, 1959, but continued to deny any wrongdoing.


The city sued Hawrelak, and he ultimately paid $100,000 plus $4,000 in legal fees to settle the lawsuit; this settlement also made him eligible to again seek elected municipal office, which he did in the 1963 election. In an election that has been called the dirtiest in Edmonton's history, he narrowly defeated alderman Stanley Milner.

Hawrelak was re-elected in the 1963 election, defeating incumbent alderman and former Member of Parliament George Prudham, but his second stint as mayor would also end prematurely: on March 11, 1965, Chief Justice C.C. McLaurin of the Court of Queen's Bench of Alberta disqualified Hawrelak from his position after ruling that he had violated the City Act through his involvement with Sun Alta Builder's Ltd., of which he owned forty percent and which had bought land from the city while he was in office.

Again Hawrelak denied wrongdoing, and appealed the decision up to the Supreme Court of Canada, which upheld it...

...Hawrelak ran for mayor again in the 1974 election...

...Even in this crowded field, Hawrelak won more than forty-nine percent of the vote in his return to office. His last term was marked by a similar style of governance to his previous terms: he was accused of stacking city boards and commissions with his friends, he appointed a disbarred lawyer as his executive assistant, and allowed property taxes into his holdings to fall in arrears (which he characterized as an oversight)...

And when he died in office in 1975, the City of Edmonton (no doubt under intense lobbying from the property interests he helped enrich) named one of the large riverside parks in his honour. Nice work if you can get it...:rolleyes:

[Jim Nickerson]

Re: Gas Prices Clobber McMansions, SUV Makers

Don't know if this applies in the USA, but up here in Canada we have a long post-WWII history of municipal governments populated and controlled by property interest representatives.

Long time Edmonton Mayor William Hawrelak is but one example:

...In 1958 Edmonton alderman Ed Leger presented a petition to city council that called for an investigation into the city administration. Leger alleged that Hawrelak had used his position to financially benefit himself, his family, and his associates.

An ensuing inquiry by Justice Marshall Porter found Hawrelak guilty of "gross misconduct" - including, in some cases, attempts to influence rezoning of land he owned - in six different land transactions. Hawrelak resigned September 9, 1959, but continued to deny any wrongdoing.


The city sued Hawrelak, and he ultimately paid $100,000 plus $4,000 in legal fees to settle the lawsuit; this settlement also made him eligible to again seek elected municipal office, which he did in the 1963 election. In an election that has been called the dirtiest in Edmonton's history, he narrowly defeated alderman Stanley Milner.

Hawrelak was re-elected in the 1963 election, defeating incumbent alderman and former Member of Parliament George Prudham, but his second stint as mayor would also end prematurely: on March 11, 1965, Chief Justice C.C. McLaurin of the Court of Queen's Bench of Alberta disqualified Hawrelak from his position after ruling that he had violated the City Act through his involvement with Sun Alta Builder's Ltd., of which he owned forty percent and which had bought land from the city while he was in office.

Again Hawrelak denied wrongdoing, and appealed the decision up to the Supreme Court of Canada, which upheld it...

...Hawrelak ran for mayor again in the 1974 election...

...Even in this crowded field, Hawrelak won more than forty-nine percent of the vote in his return to office. His last term was marked by a similar style of governance to his previous terms: he was accused of stacking city boards and commissions with his friends, he appointed a disbarred lawyer as his executive assistant, and allowed property taxes into his holdings to fall in arrears (which he characterized as an oversight)...

And when he died in office in 1975, the City of Edmonton (no doubt under intense lobbying from the property interests he helped enrich) named one of the large riverside parks in his honour. Nice work if you can get it...:rolleyes:

Not infrequently do I count myself among those who are slow learners, but perhaps I should consider my abilities as approaching that of genius when compared to these Canadians cohorts of yours, GRG.

[GRG55]

Re: Gas Prices Clobber McMansions, SUV Makers

Not infrequently do I count myself among those who are slow learners, but perhaps I should consider my abilities as approaching that of genius when compared to these Canadians cohorts of yours, GRG.

We're just a little less brutal than Zimbabwe apparently [and a bit earlier to figure it out too, based on the date of this incident :p]...

...The city sued Hawrelak, and he ultimately paid $100,000 plus $4,000 in legal fees to settle the lawsuit; this settlement also made him eligible to again seek elected municipal office, which he did in the 1963 election. In an election that has been called the dirtiest in Edmonton's history, he narrowly defeated alderman Stanley Milner.

His victory was marred by a riot that erupted when a group of students marching to city hall to protest Hawrelak's re-election victory were met by a mob loyal to the mayor, leading the Edmonton Journal - which was regularly critical of Hawrelak - to speculate that the mob was organized by the same people who "toured meetings during the recent election campaign with the sole purpose of preventing anti-Hawrelak candidates from speaking"...

[GRG55]

Re: Gas Prices Clobber McMansions, SUV Makers

Don't know if this applies in the USA, but up here in Canada we have a long post-WWII history of municipal governments populated and controlled by property interest representatives.

More on the above theme. This showed up in the news inbox this morning. Some things never change...

Developer seeks job as Victoria mayor

Stan Sipos short on details, but pledges full platform in September


Kim Westad, Times Colonist

Published: Wednesday, July 02, 2008

Businessman and developer Stan Sipos wants to be mayor of Victoria.

The 54-year-old widowed father of two who has shaped many of the downtown's buildings over the past 20 years announced yesterday that he'll run for mayor in the Nov. 15 election.

"We who have experienced good fortune should give back to the community," Sipos said. "I'm not looking for the paycheque, accolades or recognition. It will be a difficult job, a thankless job. But rather than just talk about the problems the city is having, it's time to step up and do what I can to make Victoria a better place, like the one I remember."...
http://www.canada.com/victoriatimesc...b-ed50051e01d1