Roubini/Fischer: Will Israel Attack Iran’s Nuclear Facilities Before the Election?

[krakknisse]

If this is just psy-ops and brinkmanship, it is pretty well done. They must be pulling all their strings. For what purpose? If they don't intend to attack what are they getting out of this? Iran is not backing off, and neither is Israel. I think the attack is coming. After that, the fog of war sets in. Clausewitz on the fog of war: "The great uncertainty of all data in war is a peculiar difficulty, because all action must, to a certain extent, be planned in a mere twilight, which in addition not infrequently — like the effect of a fog or moonshine — gives to things exaggerated dimensions and unnatural appearance." I think this also applies to the political, economic and geostrategic road to war.

Will Israel Attack Iran’s Nuclear Facilities Before the End of the Bush Administration? Joschka Fischer Argues Yes

Nouriel Roubini | Jun 2, 2008: I had the pleasure to meet and speak at length over the weekend with Joschka Fischer, former Foreign Minister of Germany and one of the deepest geo-strategic thinkers in the world.

Israel will attack Iran’s nuclear facilities before the end of the Bush administration and that Israel effectively received the green light to this action from Bush during his recent visit to Israel. Fischer was recently in Israel to attend the celebrations for the 60th anniversary of Israel creation. A variety of factors and conversations – fleshed out in his article – have led him to the conclusion that Israel will attack Iran before the end of the Bush administration. This is just an opinion of one – however influential and well-connected – observer; but the arguments that Fischer makes on why Israel may go ahead sound compelling.

more...

Here is a link to the op-ed by Fischer first published last Friday by the Lebanese newspaper The Daily Star:

...the feeling in Israel is that the political window of opportunity to attack is now, during the last months of Bush's presidency.

[FRED]

Re: Roubini/Fischer: Will Israel Attack Iran’s Nuclear Facilities Before the Election

If this is just psy-ops and brinkmanship, it is pretty well done. They must be pulling all their strings. For what purpose? If they don't intend to attack what are they getting out of this? Iran is not backing off, and neither is Israel. I think the attack is coming. After that, the fog of war sets in. Clausewitz on the fog of war: "The great uncertainty of all data in war is a peculiar difficulty, because all action must, to a certain extent, be planned in a mere twilight, which in addition not infrequently — like the effect of a fog or moonshine — gives to things exaggerated dimensions and unnatural appearance." I think this also applies to the political, economic and geostrategic road to war.

Will Israel Attack Iran’s Nuclear Facilities Before the End of the Bush Administration? Joschka Fischer Argues Yes
Here is a link to the op-ed by Fischer first published last Friday by the Lebanese newspaper The Daily Star:

Iran General Staff fear U.S. attack while Bush in power

06/02/2008 20:10 TEHRAN, February 6 (RIA Novosti) - A U.S. military attack on Iran is possible while George Bush is U.S. president, a deputy chief of Iran's General Staff said Wednesday.

"The threat from the U.S. has existed ever since the Islamic Revolution in Iran [in 1979]. And the threat only got worse during the Bush presidency era," the General Staff said in a statement.

"While Bush is in power, that is throughout 2008, U.S. military action against the Islamic Republic is still likely," Gholamali Rashid said. more...

[Guest]

Re: Roubini/Fischer: Will Israel Attack Iran’s Nuclear Facilities Before the Election

Krakk - certainly can't be ruled out, although less likely still than sitting tight and not doing anything. The point to understand about the Israelis, and what makes the Mossad one of the premier intelligence services in the world (except for when they grossly miscalculate - as was the case in the recent Lebanon war) is that they are past masters at the art of realism, i.e. ultimate benefit analysis. They have had to be, as few countries have as precarious and volatile a foothold in the world as these guys. 60 years of that type of environment breeds realism, if nothing else.

They will weigh the advantages of taking out (or rather, attempting to take out) the Iranian nuclear processing facility, and they will carefully weigh the COSTS of such an excercise as well. They are quite good at deriving a political cost analysis, and if it's too high, it will neutralize what doubtless is a keen desire on their part to destroy Iran's fuel reprocessing facilities. Although they occasionally screw up monumentally, they are a far and away keener intelligence service than the American one.

And the point of the above is, that "taking out" Iran's processing facilities carries very very *high* security and political costs, right across the board. Hence if they should choose not to proceed on this, it certainly won't be out of any sense of scruple - it will be entirely because the cost of doing this preemptive strike is concluded to be almost worse than not doing it. I think the "not doing it" will be the ultimate calculation they choose.

And with regard to Nouriel Roubini referring to Joschka Fischer, former Foreign Minister of Germany as : "one of the deepest geo-strategic thinkers in the world" ? Eh, well frankly I'd be hesitant to confer such probing geopolitical insight to this man. I've followed his exploits and statements over the years, and he seems rather a man who frequently gets fixated on the implications of one set of equations, which are almost always superceded by yet larger sets of equations he misses altogether.

Otherwise, very interesting post. You are to my view one of our keenest observers, so "keep them coming"!

[Guest]

Re: Roubini/Fischer: Will Israel Attack Iran’s Nuclear Facilities Before the Election

Fred I'm surprised you don't state that you discard this as supremely unlikely. The point being that any US president that "started yet another conflict" mere months before leaving office would be universally lambasted by virtually every segment of the American electorate. It is the political equivalent of pulling the pin out a hand grenade and then handing it to your wife, or husband (i.e. another American administration). Republicans and Democrats don't hate each other so much that they are willing to engage in this type of unmitigated brinkmanship.

A "realist" would understand that as we move ever closer to the end of Bush's term, the chances of him initiating anything like this don't only fall proportionately, they fall exponentially.

[FRED]

Re: Roubini/Fischer: Will Israel Attack Iran’s Nuclear Facilities Before the Election

Fred I'm surprised you don't state that you discard this as supremely unlikely. The point being that any US president that "started yet another conflict" mere months before leaving office would be universally lambasted by virtually every segment of the American electorate. It is the political equivalent of pulling the pin out a hand grenade and then handing it to your wife, or husband (i.e. another American administration). Republicans and Democrats don't hate each other so much that they are willing to engage in this type of unmitigated brinkmanship.

A "realist" would understand that as we move ever closer to the end of Bush's term, the chances of him initiating anything like this don't only fall proportionately, they fall exponentially.

Indeed we assign a very low probability to the event. Attacking Iran would be insane. Oil prices will go to $200 overnight. We're not sure what the bellicose language is all about. On the surface, it doesn't make a lot of sense. We suspect that it is part of a larger geopolitical chess game involving Russia and China, but that's only a guess. Only in the fullness of time will we know.

[Guest]

Re: Roubini/Fischer: Will Israel Attack Iran’s Nuclear Facilities Before the Election

Indeed we assign a very low probability to the event. Only in the fullness of time will we know.

Plus don't forget, we have a very level headed and deliberative, cautious type of guy in the White House.

[FRED]

Re: Roubini/Fischer: Will Israel Attack Iran’s Nuclear Facilities Before the Election

Plus don't forget, we have a very level headed and deliberative, cautious type of guy in the White House.

Bush and Putin playing chess:

Bush: Double jump! I just took two of your pieces.

Putin: You don't "double jump" in chess. You must be thinking of checkers.

Bush: Oh, yeh. Is the rook the one that moves sideways and diagonal?

Putin: No, that's your queen and I took her early in the game.

[Guest]

Re: Roubini/Fischer: Will Israel Attack Iran’s Nuclear Facilities Before the Election

I want my Harry Truman back.

[Chris]

Re: Roubini/Fischer: Will Israel Attack Iran’s Nuclear Facilities Before the Election

If you want Israeli psy-ops then read http://debka.com/headline.php?hid=5313

[FRED]

Re: Roubini/Fischer: Will Israel Attack Iran’s Nuclear Facilities Before the Election

If you want Israeli psy-ops then read http://debka.com/headline.php?hid=5313

Indoctrination seminaries and dormitories hosting fighting strength in the holy town of Qom are empty, as is the Manzariyah training center east of the capital.

Deserted too is the main training camp near Isfahan for insurgents and terrorists from Iraq, Afghanistan, Baluchistan, Lebanon and the Gaza Strip. It is here that they take courses from friendly al Qods training staff on how to sabotage strategic targets such as routes, bridges and military installations, and the activation of the extra-powerful roadside bombs (EFPs) which have had such a deadly effect on American troops in Iraq.

If true, which we doubt, this helps explain the rhetoric: keep 'em guessing and the camps empty.

[krakknisse]

Re: Roubini/Fischer: Will Israel Attack Iran’s Nuclear Facilities Before the Election

We're not sure what the bellicose language is all about. On the surface, it doesn't make a lot of sense. We suspect that it is part of a larger geopolitical chess game involving Russia and China, but that's only a guess. Only in the fullness of time will we know.

Thanks for the reply. That's the problem: "We're not sure what the bellicose language is about". Granted, advertising your attack beforehand is not very smart. It should be clear to everybody that this is a very hard negotiating tactic. But on the other hand, they need some minimum level of preparation in the public. This also adds to the realism of the threats. I have a feeling that "the fog of war" has already set in. I have expat Iranian sources - that don't believe an attack is coming. But from what that source is telling me about the inner working of Iran, I get the feeling that a significant portion of the Iranian nomenklatura would have significant interest in escalating tensions and little gain from a semi-permanent reduction in tensions.

Have any other of you noticed a constant stream of anti-Iranian media coverage? Over here, they've shown the movie "Not without my daughter" five times in the last months. There is constant coverage of the worst aspects of Iran: stoning, changes in the law on "ertedad" (apostasy).

Clearly, the Israelis know what they're doing. Except - except - except - for the "fog of war" issue. Think of it as a wrestling or sumo match that is presently on "friendly" sportsmanlike terms, but the merest crossing of the tip of a big toe over an invisible middle line would turn it into a murderous life and death struggle. We could be sliding sideways into conflict. Diplomacy can only take you so far. Israelis think of it as a "surgical" strike, Americans not formally involved in the actual strike, Iranians think they can weather it. The Iranian terrorist response further provokes a hard boycott, no-fly zones or other measures. Escalation and death by a thousand cuts. Rinse, wash, repeat.

Only time will show. But it is fun to try to analyze.

[touchring]

Re: Roubini/Fischer: Will Israel Attack Iran’s Nuclear Facilities Before the Election

Indeed we assign a very low probability to the event. Attacking Iran would be insane. Oil prices will go to $200 overnight. We're not sure what the bellicose language is all about. On the surface, it doesn't make a lot of sense. We suspect that it is part of a larger geopolitical chess game involving Russia and China, but that's only a guess. Only in the fullness of time will we know.

Nothing to do with oil prices or politics, I think the only thing that is stopping them is munition - a conventional munition that has the penetration effect of a small nuke. No point launching an attack when you can't destroy the facilities hidden in bunkers.

[sunskyfan]

Re: Roubini/Fischer: Will Israel Attack Iran’s Nuclear Facilities Before the Election

• Why does anyone think that the Israeli/Bush team would not attack
  • The Syrian Reactor was a test case and no one cared.
  • All Presidential candidates have inoculated (yes, even Obama) themselves for the coming
  • When losing a war the best short term solution is expanding it.