Six US Aircraft Carrier groups will be on their way to the Persian Gulf

[moonshot]

Re: Six US Aircraft Carrier groups will be on their way to the Persian Gulf

this questionaire demonstrates the big problem in political thought today; The misconception that everything is "conservative" or "liberal" and that there are only two answers to each of the questions. They're couched to force you into one of the pigeon holes. This pigeon holing is exactly why we get the crappy government we have. Most of the questions the answer should be "none of the above" Life is much more nuanced than these alternatives allow. Yet our system forces people to "pick a team" and then encourages them to root for it whole hog. So what we wind up is with the doctrinaire morons who can't think beyond stage one deciding things.

It encourages biased thinking that rewards one's "team" rather than acheiving superior results. Because the typical voter is not particularly bright or independent minded, he's very succeptible to conforming to either mindset totally rather than thinking for himself. Since we're offered two sets of bad choices, it usually pathetically devolves into one supporting the side that they agree with most on a few highly emotional but usually unimportant issues.

We could use a 3rd and probably 4th major party to achieve anything approaching the results most here would like to see.

The answer to most polls on politics and the two main parties on most issues should be "they're both wrong".

Well said. It's incredible that the two parties have maintained such a stranglehold on political thought for so long. This country would be well served by a few more major political parties.

[c1ue]

Re: Six US Aircraft Carrier groups will be on their way to the Persian Gulf

Bruce,

Your depiction of two more or less equally distasteful choices does describe the questionnaire very well - I also wanted to pick 'none of the above' on most of the questions.

But as I've noted elsewhere: classic power struggle tactics (as popularized by Maoists/terrorists) is to provoke such reactions from the incumbent as to force the population into one choice or the other.

Rove brilliantly did so in getting Bush into power - now the question is when the post-provocation will begin: when both sides are so exhausted and dissatisfied that extremists on both sides are shunted away.

Hasn't happened in Israel, but has happened in history.

[BiscayneSunrise]

Re: Six US Aircraft Carrier groups will be on their way to the Persian Gulf

G, As always, excellent analysis.

You mention they are in denial. I see that Ahmadinejad is constantly shuffling his cabinet, assumedly with political hacks. Without steely eyed politicians running the country I believe they are stuck on a very old geopolitical view of the world, which drives them into bad decisions.

My question then: are the Iranians replacing oil experts and businessmen with oil industry acumen with political appointees. Similar to Chavez gutting his oil industry?

[krakknisse]

Re: Six US Aircraft Carrier groups will be on their way to the Persian Gulf

I found this very interesting, from the Asia Times:

US plot to nail Iran backfires

WASHINGTON - The George W Bush administration's plan to create a new crescendo of accusations against Iran for allegedly smuggling arms to Shi'ite militias in Iraq has encountered not just one but two setbacks.

The government of Prime Minister Nuri al-Maliki refused to endorse US charges of Iranian involvement in arms smuggling to Shi'ite cleric Muqtada al-Sadr's Mahdi Army, and a plan to show off a huge collection of Iranian arms captured in and around the central city of Karbala had to be called off after it was discovered that none of the arms was of Iranian origin.

The Bush administration and top Iraq commander General David Petraeus had plotted a sequence of events that would build domestic US political support for a possible strike against Iran over its "meddling" in Iraq, and especially its alleged export of arms to Shi'ite militias.

The news media's failure to report that the arms captured from Shi'ite militiamen in Karbala did not include a single Iranian weapon shielded the US military from a big blow to its anti-Iran strategy. More...

[GRG55]

Re: Six US Aircraft Carrier groups will be on their way to the Persian Gulf

G, As always, excellent analysis.

You mention they are in denial. I see that Ahmadinejad is constantly shuffling his cabinet, assumedly with political hacks. Without steely eyed politicians running the country I believe they are stuck on a very old geopolitical view of the world, which drives them into bad decisions.

My question then: are the Iranians replacing oil experts and businessmen with oil industry acumen with political appointees. Similar to Chavez gutting his oil industry?

Iran is very similar to China; appearing to be very confident and aggressive within its borders and near-border areas, lacking political confidence and tentative, although not short of ambition, on the world stage.

Ahmadinejad is actually in a fairly precarious position, with a small, but hard-core constituency of supporters. That's why it's best not to take everything he says too seriously, or assume it's Iranian policy. Like the junta in Myanmar, the mullahs wish to retain power in Iran. Their position is not secure (the most dangerous enemy is the one within) and they employ all the usual techniques common in these situations to try to control the population: secret police, moral codes, jail the opposition, increase control of the economy, purge the ranks of the bright and articulate that may pose a future threat and, finally, remind the public of the bad old days the glorious revolution swept away. Problem is that Iran has a young population, and a growing majority are too young to have any recollection of those days under the Shah.

There's no indication of any mass purge of technocrats in the oil and gas sector a la Chavez, but the decision process has always been extraordinarily hierarchical and the disruptions in the political ranks at the top further impedes the ability to get anything done in the economy. Unlike Qatar and Egypt [as examples] that deliberately cultivate foreign joint venture partnerships as a method to overcome their own internal bureaucracy [which they have given up trying to change], the Iranians are highly suspicious of foreign involvement in their economy and make it almost impossible to do business there [a much more efficient way to hamper ones economy than US sanctions IMO :p]

One can just see the cumbersome decision making in play given the Iranians are desperately trying to find crude carriers to hold the oil production they cannot sell. Just like 5-year plans for shoes in the old Soviet Union, someone's job is on the line to meet the production target and they are going to make it no matter what. Getting the plan changed is more work, takes more time, and involves considerably more risk to career and income than finding more ships to charter as floating storage. Bloody hilarious, especially all the western pundits claiming Iran is "holding back oil to drive up the price so let's bomb them now". If they really wanted to cut supply why wouldn't they just leave it in the ground? That's the cheapest and most secure place to "store" it.

[Slimprofits]

Re: Six US Aircraft Carrier groups will be on their way to the Persian Gulf

I found this very interesting, from the Asia Times:

And this further down:

The Karbala weapons cache also raises new questions about the official US narrative about the Shi'ite militia's use of explosively formed penetrators (EFPs) as an Iranian phenomenon. Among the captured weapons mentioned by Major General Raied Shaker Jawdat, commander of the Karbala police, were what he called "150 anti-tank bombs", as distinguished from ordinary roadside explosive devices.

An "anti-tank bomb" is a device that is capable of penetrating armor, which has been introduced to the US public as the EFP. The US claim that Iran was behind their growing use in Iraq was the centerpiece of the Bush administration's case for an Iranian "proxy war" against the US in early 2007.

Soon after that, however, senior US military officials conceded that EFPs were in fact being manufactured in Iraq itself, although they insisted that EFPs alleged exported by Iran were superior to the home-made version.

The large cache of EFPs in Karbala which are admitted to be non-Iranian in origin underlines the reality that the Mahdi Army procures its EFPs from a variety of sources.

[BiscayneSunrise]

Re: Six US Aircraft Carrier groups will be on their way to the Persian Gulf

Bruce,

Your depiction of two more or less equally distasteful choices does describe the questionnaire very well - I also wanted to pick 'none of the above' on most of the questions.

But as I've noted elsewhere: classic power struggle tactics (as popularized by Maoists/terrorists) is to provoke such reactions from the incumbent as to force the population into one choice or the other.

Rove brilliantly did so in getting Bush into power - now the question is when the post-provocation will begin: when both sides are so exhausted and dissatisfied that extremists on both sides are shunted away.

Hasn't happened in Israel, but has happened in history.

Or conversely, both sides are so exhausted they can no longer identify or fight a rising extremist disguised as a moderate reformer and a patriot. LOTS of historical examples there.

[BiscayneSunrise]

Re: Six US Aircraft Carrier groups will be on their way to the Persian Gulf

On the other side of the fence, Iran doesn't have battlegroups sitting in the Gulf of Mexico, nor have they invaded a country bordering the U.S.. They don't run a global empire, and don't have our track record of overthrowing sovereign nations and installing dictators to serve their greedy overconsumption. For every speedboat they've sent sent to Hezvbollah, we've sen't a few nukes to Izrael.

Perhaps we have a right to stereotype the Neoconservatives who brought us the Patriot Act, dozens of unconstitutional wars, massive vote fraud, sanctioned torture and rapidly degenerating privacy. After all, fool me once shame on....shame me, fool me twice....shame on........... uh..........well you can't get fooled again.

tombat,

What are your thought regarding Iran's violations of UN policy regarding uranium enrichment? Everyone, of course, has a right to the peaceful use of nuclear power but only a handful of nations are licensed by the UN to enrich uranium. Non licensed nations must buy their uranium from those so licensed. Iran is in violation of that policy despite many warnings from the UN. They also threaten to obliterate Israel.

What do you think ideal UN/US policy should be towards Iran?

[krakknisse]

Re: Six US Aircraft Carrier groups will be on their way to the Persian Gulf

Report, based on story from Israeli Army Radio: U.S. will attack Iran
Denial from White House here:

An article in today's Jerusalem Post about the President's position on Iran that quotes unnamed sources -- quoting unnamed sources -- is not worth the paper it's written on.
Let me respond by reaffirming the policy of the Administration: We, along with our international allies who want peace in the Middle East, remain opposed to Iran's ambitions to obtain a nuclear weapon. To that end, we are working to bring tough diplomatic and economic pressure on the Iranians to get them to change their behavior and to halt their uranium enrichment program.
As the President has said, no president of the United States should ever take options off the table, but our preference and our actions for dealing with this matter remain through peaceful diplomatic means. Nothing has changed in that regard.

A comment in NY Times: Another Rumor on Attacking Iran Bites the Dust

Note that

Three of four Americans also express concern that the United States “will be too quick to use military force” against Iran.

The most significant portions is here, as far as I can see:

The back-and-forth is enough to make the most skilled spinmeisters dizzy. In fact, Ms. Perino’s predecessor as press secretary, Tony Snow, got tripped up almost exactly a year ago during his daily press briefing:

MR. SNOW: Let me put it this way: The use of force is off the table. All right? Let me be specific. That is what the President has said. Is that not correct?
Q Is off, or is not off?
MR. SNOW: I’m sorry — is not off the table. Thank you. (Laughter.) Yes, it’s on the table.

Of course, as long as the table remains set, the specter of war remains in the distance — that is, until it returns to the headlines, as it did today.

[BiscayneSunrise]

Re: Six US Aircraft Carrier groups will be on their way to the Persian Gulf

k,

This is similar to what the US did with the Soviets in the late 80's: continue applying pressure at all weak points to make them not only feel vulnerable but look vulnerable to the rest of the world. The US has no intention nor capability , really to invade Iran. But it is not necessary. Thanks to continued success of the surge in Iraq, snuffing out Iranian backed insurgents and diplomatic overtures to the Arabs and Syrians, Iran is completely isolated and in an increasingly weakening condition.

Continued US presence in the Gulf along with massive inflow of petro dollars into Arab Gulf countries have made the Arabs much more confident and progressive in working against insurgent groups. Ironically, increased oil prices has weakened iran because they are a net importer of gasoline and they have a much larger population to which they must distribute oil income, diluting their ability to placate the population or buy off dissidents.

I believe things in Iraq are coming to a positive conclusion much faster than anyone suspects.


http://www.manilatimes.net/national/...80523wor1.html
Iraq ‘endgame’ looms but
troop pullout risky-US


WASHINGTON: US Defense Secretary Robert Gates said Thursday the “endgame” is now in sight in Iraq but warned of the costly consequences of withdrawing US forces too hastily.

“I fear that frustration over slow progress and dismay over sacrifices already made may result in decisions that are gratifying in the short term but very costly to us in the long term,” he said.

Gates made the comments in a speech delivered to US special operations forces at their headquarters in Tampa, Florida in which he emphasized that they will be needed in Iraq and Afghanistan for a long time.

While he made no direct mention of calls by Democratic leaders for deep cuts in US forces next year under a new administration, Gates clearly had them in mind in cautioning against pulling out too quickly.

“We are now seeing what the endgame in Iraq looks like—with our forces drawing down over time, in a series of very complex battlefield rearrangements that slowly cede more responsibility for day-to-day security operations to the Iraqis,” the prepared remarks said.

“It is a slow process—slower than most would wish, myself included,” he said. “But it is necessary if we are to get the endgame right.”

The United States currently has about 155,000 troops in Iraq, but the number is supposed to fall to about 140,000 by July.

General David Petraeus, the top US commander in Iraq, has insisted that the drawdown be halted at that point to see whether Iraqi security forces prove capable of taking up the slack.

Gates recalled the string of past failures when security was handed over to Iraqi forces before they were ready “based on overly rosy predictions that didn’t necessarily line up with reality.”

“We must be realistic about the challenges still facing Iraq: Al-Qaeda remains a lethal force, a cancer, always looking to metastasize and regenerate; armed militias still undermine the rule of law; and the government, while making great strides, still has a lot to learn about how to deliver basic services and security to its people,” he said.

Gates argued that succeeding in Iraq and Afghanistan is crucial to the broader war on terrorism, which he portrayed as a long struggle against religiously motivated international terrorism.

“The task before us is to fracture and destroy this movement in its infancy, to permanently reduce its ability to strike globally and catastrophically, while also discrediting and deflating its ideology.

“And our best opportunity to do this is in Iraq and Afghanistan,” he said.

US success in those countries would “strike a decisive blow” against an Islamic extremist movement that has been “methodically built on the illusion of success,” he said.

He highlighted the role of US special operations forces, which now number about 55,000, noting that 80 percent of those deployed are in the Central Command area of operations.

“Even as our regular troops reduce their presence and are replaced by Iraqis, special operations force levels will remain fairly constant and be the connective tissue of the overall mission,” he said.
-- AFP

[GRG55]

Re: Six US Aircraft Carrier groups will be on their way to the Persian Gulf

...I believe things in Iraq are coming to a positive conclusion much faster than anyone suspects.

It's either that or the US is going to just declare victory and go home...;)

[metalman]

Re: Six US Aircraft Carrier groups will be on their way to the Persian Gulf

It's either that or the US is going to just declare victory and go home...;)

the deal is far from done. the spoils are too important. if the usa was willing to go to war over the oil before peak oil, imagine the eagerness and prospects for political support with so much evidence it's here.

think about it. congress... that pack of political wimps... should have 20 yrs ago done what euro nations did. raise energy taxes, create incentives for efficiency. now they beating up oil companies and 'specualtors' in public, on cspan, to distract us from the result of their ******* total incompetence :eek::mad::mad::mad: