Warren Buffett: "The worst of the crisis in Wall Street is over"

[flintlock]

Re: Warren Buffett: "The worst of the crisis in Wall Street is over"

Rantly mentioned how Buffett was secretive in the first 15 or so years. Then, once he became fabulously wealthy, seems to speak openly of his opinion on things. A pessimist would think Buffett understands that people will follow the advice of one of the worlds richest men, and will invest accordingly. When you control the amount of money he does, that is a powerful tool to make more now isn't it? And at some point, his "predictions" become a self-fufilling prophecy.

I'm not saying that is what he is doing, just pointing out you really can't look to anyone with that kind of potential motivation for advice anymore.

[blazespinnaker]

Re: Warren Buffett: "The worst of the crisis in Wall Street is over"

At the time he talked about the dangers of derivatives he didn't mean BH's derivatives but the other guys'.

These derivatives are clearly marked to market. When you think about it, the whole business of WB is marking to market instruments.

4.5B in derivatives doesn't overly leverage his company.

[GRG55]

Re: Warren Buffett: "The worst of the crisis in Wall Street is over"

Re: Berkshire's derivatives loss, isn't this a result of non-cash charges due to changes in 'fair-market value' of very long-lived equity puts Berk-
shire sold(discussed in another thread)?

Regarding Buffett generally, I've been in the investment management
business now for just over 25 years and for the first 15 or so years
Buffett was the 'secretive Oracle 'o Omaha' who operated privately
and very low key. Now, the guy is everywhere and won't shut up
about ANYTHING-markets, taxes, oil, elections, yadda, yadda; he
has an opinion on most anything and insists on sharing it-just this
a.m. I saw him yapping to one of the Babbling Bimbos of Bubblevision
about interest rates. It's interesting that Bubblevision seems willing
to drop everything and either take a call from him(could you imagine
him doing that in 1985, on the old FNN?) or slingshot some hack talking head to wherever on the globe he happens to be planted to catch whatever pearls of genius he happens to drop.I'm thinking he's become
just another Establishmentarian shill/propagandist, albeit on the rarified
level with Jack Welch and the Bills Gross & Gates-probably because he has too much to lose,and not just in financial terms, if a real, uncontrollable systemic crisis gets rolling.

Rantly: Welcome! I second metalman's motion.

I have lot of sympathy for your views expressed here. Found myself a bit surprised that the reclusive Buffett would suddenly start behaving like a financial version of Paris Hilton (with his clothes on) actively shilling the Berkshire "brand".

But then it struck me that, as USA, Inc. continues to dig itself deeper into a financial hole, some other normally reclusive folks (even more reclusive than Buffett!!) have become more vocal in recent years. The most recent would be Paul Volcker. Maybe there's something else going on here?

[Rantly McTirade]

Re: Warren Buffett: "The worst of the crisis in Wall Street is over"

Thanks for the comments/welcome, I'll try to comment back on the linked
EJ article when I've had a chance to read it.
One more point on Buffett-his father was a Congressman back in the Depression era and was a major isolationist/paleo-con figure(disliked the
Fed, supported Lindbergh, etc.);if here today, he might out-Ron Paul Ron Paul. Warren, of course, is a major globalist & at least a 'soft' multiculturalist; in the 'slouching toward conspiracy' vein, there's a
well-known picture of him bring Gov. Gropinator to Lord Rothchild's manse
sometime in the recent past-20,25 years ago, who'd a thunk either Buffett or the Grope would be in such priviledged circles.

[Spartacus]

Re: Warren Buffett: "The worst of the crisis in Wall Street is over"

Let's also not forget the (IMHO very plausible) speculation that Buffett's Silver hoard was taken from him by savvier derivatives players.

Warren Buffett, complicated man of contradictions?[INDENT][COLOR=DarkSlateGray] Buffett warns on investment 'time bomb'
March 4, 2003 (Fortune)

Derivatives are financial weapons of mass destruction

[santafe2]

Re: Warren Buffett: "The worst of the crisis in Wall Street is over"

Let's also not forget the (IMHO very plausible) speculation that Buffett's Silver hoard was taken from him by savvier derivatives players.

I've followed this from 'the bump', and I'd be interested to know what information you have. I've not heard this and I'm sure you know, there has been no statement of how/if this holding has been released. A BHK press release says they've taken delivery of almost 130MM ounces of silver over 10 years ago. If this is no longer in their portfolio, I'd like to see the support for that. Thanks.

[Spartacus]

Re: Warren Buffett: "The worst of the crisis in Wall Street is over"

Buffett said he "sold early", this was just a little bit after the Silver ETF came

I remember reading it in reputable sources, but can't find that now.

a Google search gave me a couple links

http://silverstockreport.com/email/buffett_times.html

I believe Buffett lost his Silver because
1. he does NOT believe in holding investments that do not pay an ongoing return
2. he does NOT believe in "hard money" (he's famous for completely disagreeing with his father on Gold, and he's)
3. it turns out he IS playing the derivatives game
4. He claims he buys investments to "never sell". Saying "I sold early" does not square up

read this with lots of grains of salt handy
http://www.investmentrarities.com/we...y05-08-06.html

Buffett went to a LOT of trouble to get that Silver, disrupted the Silver market worldwide (look at the lease rate charts from the period). I really don't believe he sold voluntarily.

I've followed this from 'the bump', and I'd be interested to know what information you have. I've not heard this and I'm sure you know, there has been no statement of how/if this holding has been released. A BHK press release says they've taken delivery of almost 130MM ounces of silver over 10 years ago. If this is no longer in their portfolio, I'd like to see the support for that. Thanks.

[c1ue]

Re: Warren Buffett: "The worst of the crisis in Wall Street is over"

Sir Warren has never been shy about telling his stockholders to buy from Berkshire Hathaway companies.

Every annual report and stockholder's meeting going back 30 years says so.

Nor has Sir Warren never made a mistake - the Salomon brothers fiasco comes to mind.

The key to keep in mind is that Sir Warren does have his interests, but that his interests no longer coincide with the average investor.

BKH is an owner of monopoly businesses and likely the biggest player in reinsurance. Sir Warren uses the cash and float from these to play large plays in various markets.

Does he sometimes lose in these market plays? Sure, no one is perfect.

But his record both in his first 20 years and in these last 20 years speaks for itself.

Once again, without seeing the full transcript, a single sentence quoted by MSM is worthless.

Sir Warren has in years past talked about many things before their time: derivatives, investment managers, stock options, etc etc.

All at the time were either ignored or ridiculed, yet all have come (or are in the process) of coming to pass.

[santafe2]

Re: Warren Buffett: "The worst of the crisis in Wall Street is over"

Buffett said he "sold early", this was just a little bit after the Silver ETF came

I remember reading it in reputable sources, but can't find that now.

a Google search gave me a couple links

http://silverstockreport.com/email/buffett_times.html

I believe Buffett lost his Silver because
1. he does NOT believe in holding investments that do not pay an ongoing return
2. he does NOT believe in "hard money" (he's famous for completely disagreeing with his father on Gold, and he's)
3. it turns out he IS playing the derivatives game
4. He claims he buys investments to "never sell". Saying "I sold early" does not square up

read this with lots of grains of salt handy
http://www.investmentrarities.com/we...y05-08-06.html

Buffett went to a LOT of trouble to get that Silver, disrupted the Silver market worldwide (look at the lease rate charts from the period). I really don't believe he sold voluntarily.

Thanks for the follow-up. I communicated with Roland Watson in October of 2005 to ask him if he knew if BHK was leasing their silver to Barclays. It struck me as an odd coincidence that the amount purchased by BHK and the amount backing the ETF were all but identical. Unfortunately, he could not add any direct confirmation or denial but did point out that the Silver Users Association, (SUA), was opposed to the ETF and was party to holding it up. They were, and may still be, concerned about liquidity. And, he thought that leasing the silver from BHK may be a way to off-set that concern. It would also also address BHK's concern in owning an asset that pays no dividend. Just speculation of course, but interesting.