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  • Do you believe in Buffet? I know I do...

    http://www.berkshirehathaway.com/2007ar/2007ar.pdf


    The second category of contracts involves various put options we have sold on four stock indices (the S&P 500 plus three foreign indices). These puts had original terms of either 15 or 20 years and were struck at the market. We have received premiums of $4.5 billion, and we recorded a liability at yearend of $4.6 billion. The puts in these contracts are exercisable
    only at their expiration dates, which occur between
    2019 and 2027, [...]


    Put contracts taken out between 2004 and 2007.

    Of course, Sir Warren plays the game several ways: The puts also act as float for his other operations much as insurance does now.

    But it does seem indicative that Sir Warren sees a very low risk in taking out long term puts even 15 or 20 years from now - historically he has never undertaken a money-losing operation solely for the sake of float.

    Food for thought.

    The other 3 indices? One absolutely is Europe. The other two - not Asia although perhaps China or more likely HK. I'd nominate Brazil as well - note that the index must be both large enough and liquid enough for these large transactions. Very possibly a commodity. Then there's Australia...

  • #2
    Re: Do you believe in Buffet? I know I do...

    Originally posted by c1ue View Post
    Put contracts taken out between 2004 and 2007.

    Of course, Sir Warren plays the game several ways: The puts also act as float for his other operations much as insurance does now.

    But it does seem indicative that Sir Warren sees a very low risk in taking out long term puts even 15 or 20 years from now - historically he has never undertaken a money-losing operation solely for the sake of float.
    [/left]

    Long does this mean that he thinks that the DJ will still fall in the medium to long term? Leeb 2012 theory?

    Today, he said that the credit crisis is over. How does this reconcile with his long term put?

    Comment


    • #3
      Re: Do you believe in Buffet? I know I do...

      Originally posted by touchring View Post
      Long does this mean that he thinks that the DJ will still fall in the medium to long term? Leeb 2012 theory?

      Today, he said that the credit crisis is over. How does this reconcile with his long term put?
      Excerpt: "...The second category of contracts involves various put options we have sold on four stock indices (the S&P 500 plus three foreign indices)..."

      I read this to mean that Buffett sold puts, which is a bet the markets will be higher in the future. That would be consistent with his long held view about equity markets; rising over the long term.

      Edit added: I wonder who in their right mind would be taking the other side of that bet. Expecting the S&P 500 to be lower, in nominal terms, in 2019 to 2027 would seem a very long shot. Particularly so given the restriction that the puts can be exercised only on the expiration date. That means to win against Buffett one has to get the direction and the timing correct.

      Does anybody here think they can predict things 11 to 19 years in the future with any degree of confidence? It would appear that the days of OPM funded USIPs are far from over...
      Last edited by GRG55; May 03, 2008, 02:09 PM.

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      • #4
        Re: Do you believe in Buffet? I know I do...

        Or somebody was very desperate to resolve duration mismatch problems,

        and simply HAD TO HAVE SOMETHING, ANYTHING that said "20 years" on its face

        (IOW, "rational thought processes" need not have been an issue on the other side - could have been tax issues, accountants demanding this & that & the other, counterparties to other deals demanding insurance ... lots of stuff )

        Originally posted by GRG55 View Post
        Excerpt: "...The second category of contracts involves various put options we have sold on four stock indices (the S&P 500 plus three foreign indices)..."

        I read this to mean that Buffett sold puts, which is a bet the markets will be higher in the future. That would be consistent with his long held view about equity markets; rising over the long term.

        Edit added: I wonder who in their right mind would be taking the other side of that bet. Expecting the S&P 500 to be lower, in nominal terms, in 2019 to 2027 would seem a very long shot. Particularly so given the restriction that the puts can be exercised only on the expiration date. That means to win against Buffett one has to get the direction and the timing correct.

        Does anybody here think they can predict things 11 to 19 years in the future with any degree of confidence? It would appear that the days of OPM funded USIPs are far from over...

        Comment


        • #5
          Re: Do you believe in Buffet? I know I do...

          Can be it explained just as a simple mistake on Buffet's part ? and he is cutting short his losses on this particular investment ?

          http://www.bloggingstocks.com/2008/0...al-wmd-losses/
          Last edited by Nicolasd; May 05, 2008, 06:18 AM. Reason: typo

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          • #6
            Re: Do you believe in Buffet? I know I do...

            Originally posted by Nicolasd View Post
            Can it explained just as a simple mistake on Buffet's part ? and he is cutting short his losses on this particular investment ?

            http://www.bloggingstocks.com/2008/0...al-wmd-losses/


            Well, this shows that WB is affected by the financial crisis afterall - if that were the case, i'm going to put a small discount on what he says about the troubles in wallstreet. ;)

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            • #7
              Re: Do you believe in Buffet? I know I do...

              Originally posted by touchring View Post
              Well, this shows that WB is affected by the financial crisis afterall - if that were the case, i'm going to discount what he says about the troubles in wallstreet.
              The same sort of sentiments were expressed about Buffett back in 1999 and 2000, during the tech craziness that he refused to participate in (said he couldn't understand how to assess a technology company). Lot's of stuff in the financial papers around that time about Buffett doesn't "get it", and how his good friend Bill Gates should explain it to him; that he was a "has been" investor from the last era, and so forth. Berkshire stock fell to around $40,000 a share.

              At times like these I tend to put even more weight than usual on what the grizzled old veterans like Buffett and Templeton are saying.

              Comment


              • #8
                Re: Do you believe in Buffet? I know I do...

                How's the situation in the middle east? asia's starting to decelerate - governments have been telling everyone to tighten up and spend less.


                Originally posted by GRG55 View Post
                The same sort of sentiments were expressed about Buffett back in 1999 and 2000, during the tech craziness that he refused to participate in (said he couldn't understand how to assess a technology company). Lot's of stuff in the financial papers around that time about Buffett doesn't "get it", and how his good friend Bill Gates should explain it to him; that he was a "has been" investor from the last era, and so forth. Berkshire stock fell to around $40,000 a share.

                At times like these I tend to put even more weight than usual on what the grizzled old veterans like Buffett and Templeton are saying.

                Comment


                • #9
                  Re: Do you believe in Buffet? I know I do...

                  Originally posted by touchring View Post
                  How's the situation in the middle east? asia's starting to decelerate - governments have been telling everyone to tighten up and spend less.
                  Our information is that Wall Street has been effectively bailed out of crisis. That said, there is no indication that a new source of large scale debt financed growth in sales of securities to match the mortgage bubble is coming any time soon and the crisis on Main Street is just beginning.

                  Perhaps Buffett is talking his book? He recently made investments in financials.
                  Ed.

                  Comment


                  • #10
                    Re: Do you believe in Buffet? I know I do...

                    Originally posted by FRED View Post
                    Our information is that Wall Street has been effectively bailed out of crisis. That said, there is no indication that a new source of large scale debt financed growth in sales of securities to match the mortgage bubble is coming any time soon and the crisis on Main Street is just beginning.

                    Perhaps Buffett is talking his book? He recently made investments in financials.

                    Sounds right though, except, the panic is over, but is the credit problem solved?

                    If not, how can the credit crisis be over?

                    Governments all over the world are asking their citizens to start saving money and spending less. China even cancelled the 3 long holidays so that people will spend less. Don't bet on BRIC to keep up American exports. Everyone is preparing for crash landing by loading up savings and reserves.
                    Last edited by touchring; May 04, 2008, 11:21 AM.

                    Comment


                    • #11
                      Re: Do you believe in Buffet? I know I do...

                      Originally posted by FRED View Post
                      Our information is that Wall Street has been effectively bailed out of crisis. That said, there is no indication that a new source of large scale debt financed growth in sales of securities to match the mortgage bubble is coming any time soon and the crisis on Main Street is just beginning.

                      Perhaps Buffett is talking his book? He recently made investments in financials.
                      lol well put Fred!!

                      Comment


                      • #12
                        Re: Do you believe in Buffet? I know I do...

                        I agree Fred
                        I said some time ago that even if GOD came down & wished away their debts...........what is left to sell? What's more if you were an international invester would you buy so much as a postage stamp of these people?
                        Mike

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                        • #13
                          Re: Do you believe in Buffet? I know I do...

                          Originally posted by FRED View Post

                          Perhaps Buffett is talking his book? He recently made investments in financials.
                          That's the first thing that came to my mind as well.

                          Comment


                          • #14
                            Re: Do you believe in Buffet? I know I do...

                            Originally posted by touchring View Post
                            How's the situation in the middle east? asia's starting to decelerate - governments have been telling everyone to tighten up and spend less.
                            In the Middle East the government are the economy for the most part. However the smart private money (still a minority) is getting liquid, the slightly less smart private money is cashing out of real estate and going into commodities [especially oil], and the dumb money is doing what dumb money always does...dancing [staying in real estate] until the music stops.

                            My partners and I closed sale of our firm in 1st Q, and I am moving my family out of the region, at least temporarily. I do not trust this US Administration in an election year, and I do not like what I see going on in Pakistan and Egypt. IMO, Iran is a sideshow.
                            Last edited by GRG55; May 05, 2008, 08:44 AM.

                            Comment


                            • #15
                              Re: Do you believe in Buffet? I know I do...

                              Originally posted by GRG55 View Post
                              My partners and I closed sale of our firm in 1st Q, and I am moving my family out of the region, at least temporarily. I do not trust this US Administration in an election year, and I do not like what I see going on in Pakistan and Egypt. IMO, Iran is a sideshow.

                              What's the matter in pakistan? The pakistanis are easy to deal with - like every south asian, money can solve almost every problem.

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