A second Iraq soon ?

[Olduvai]

Iran abandons the Dollar.
One of the assumed reasons for Iraq's invasion was Saddam stopping selling oil in USD.
With an already weak USD won't this enhance the possibility of a second oil/dollar/terrorism war ?
http://www.thetrumpet.com/index.php?q=5094.3370.0.0
Gold soon to be on it's way to new heights ?

[krakknisse]

Re: A second Iraq soon ?

There's been a lot of Iran-chatter, both here and elsewhere on the net. It never does seem to pan out. There's the Iran financial boycott of the US, by pricing oil in other than US dollars. Then there's the US financial boycott, by putting all of Iran's banks on a terrorist watch list, so any bank with US business must stay away. The attack on the Sadr brigades in Basra, etc.

We'll see - it is a developing story. One other development out:
This Bloomberg story says:

While demand for crude oil pushed the benchmark price to a record $119.93 a barrel on April 28, Iran has a glut of high-sulfur crude as refineries that process the fuel have shut down for maintenance. The discount on Iranian Heavy crude compared with Oman and Dubai petroleum has more than doubled since the start of the year, according to data compiled by Bloomberg.

Refineries may very well have to shut down for maintenance. But this refusal to buy Iranian oil is all very convenient if an attack of some sort where to take place.

[touchring]

Re: A second Iraq soon ?

There's been a lot of Iran-chatter, both here and elsewhere on the net. It never does seem to pan out. There's the Iran financial boycott of the US, by pricing oil in other than US dollars. Then there's the US financial boycott, by putting all of Iran's banks on a terrorist watch list, so any bank with US business must stay away. The attack on the Sadr brigades in Basra, etc.

We'll see - it is a developing story. One other development out:
This Bloomberg story says:

Refineries may very well have to shut down for maintenance. But this refusal to buy Iranian oil is all very convenient if an attack of some sort where to take place.

wow, nice one, but too many false alarms. but false alarms in itself might be a military smokescreen stategy.

[GRG55]

Re: A second Iraq soon ?

There's been a lot of Iran-chatter, both here and elsewhere on the net. It never does seem to pan out. There's the Iran financial boycott of the US, by pricing oil in other than US dollars. Then there's the US financial boycott, by putting all of Iran's banks on a terrorist watch list, so any bank with US business must stay away. The attack on the Sadr brigades in Basra, etc.

We'll see - it is a developing story. One other development out:
This Bloomberg story says:

Refineries may very well have to shut down for maintenance. But this refusal to buy Iranian oil is all very convenient if an attack of some sort where to take place.

This has more to do with the fact that "crack spreads" [refining margins] have been very narrow [thin margins] for quite some time now. Most of the world's refining capacity is in the Northern Hemisphere. The preferred times for refinery (and most other petroleum processing facility) turn-arounds is in spring or fall, to avoid the heat/humidity of summer which makes it difficult to work in layers of Nomex safety gear. The tight crack spreads have caused operators that can advance their schedules to take a shut-down now in hopes that margins will be better in the fall. [Yes, I understand it is difficult to believe the refiners are not very profitable at these petrol prices, but their money is made on the difference between crude and product prices, and crude has risen faster than gasoline]

Those units still running want the higher grades of crude to maximize product yield in a tight crack spread situation. Hence the lower grade stuff sits until it gets discounted. In some cases the very worst grades don't get picked up because there's not enough operating refining capacity to process it right now. As the maintenance season winds down this stuff will get bid as the discounts make it very attractive to the refiners that have the ability to process it.

Oil is the most political of commodities, but it's not necessarily so that the basic facts behind every story that comes out of the Middle East has a predominantly political foundation.