Intrade prediction recession, now at 34%

[blazespinnaker]

Up from a high of 75% earlier this year.

For those who believe there is a higher chance, I suggest you go put your money where your mouth is on intrade.com

My point here is not to be bullish. My point only here is to consider gambler's ruin when making your bets. If you go too far one way, there is a chance you could lose so much it'll be difficult to come back.

Also, betting against the economy is like betting against the house. You really gotta be damn sure you know what you're doing.

[friendly_jacek]

Re: Intrade prediction recession, now at 34%

I'm not going to gamble, but this sounds like a contrarian indicator and it points dangerously near the optimism peak.

[jtabeb]

Re: Intrade prediction recession, now at 34%

I'm not going to gamble, but this sounds like a contrarian indicator and it points dangerously near the optimism peak.

I've noticed that all the contrains are saying you should go "bullish" becasue of all the bad news has already been priced in. They ALL, repeat ALL are saying go long.

The contrairian contrainian in me thinks this screams major top ahead. Could be wrong, of course but at least I'll loose money in the process!

[jdv]

Re: Intrade prediction recession, now at 34%

The thing is, can it be an official recession when the numbers are bogus?
So when you are betting on intrade, aren't you really betting whether the goverment will allow the statistics to show the recession that we are already in? Or if they'll continue to cook the books?

:cool:

[flintlock]

Re: Intrade prediction recession, now at 34%

Exactly. A tiny growth in the economy is a recession when consider the real rate of inflation. Come on. Do they really think main street America isn't going to notice all these rising fuel, food, and health costs?