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The term is taken from an alleged story of how John F. Kennedy’s father sold his stocks prior to the 1929 crash because his shoeshine boy was giving him stock tips over his shoes. Kennedy correctly deduced that this was a sign of an extremely overbought market and took it as a sell signal. Continued... Based on what I've been read, There has not been a "run out" of bullion or other type of PM's around here (just on Friday I went after 5 pm to a coin dealer near the office, and got 20 silver "Libertad" ounces, and the girl at the counter just reached for a couple of those containers where Banxico ships them away from below the counter, no vault trip), and yet I have to hear any interest on PM's from people around me, apart form the actual prices, even I get a puzzled look from other people when I go getting silver coinage or a "sure, nobody wants them" when I exchange a Nezahualcoyotl photo for a Statehood coin. Let me tell you that us Mexicans are hardwired to be inflationistas, just taking into account the 1973-1999 period, when apart of a couple years (1993, 1994), we had a yearly price inflation way above 10%, and saw constant devaluations of our currency in respect to the USD, so the fear is that Mexican Peso is by now considered to be overvaluated against USD, just by comparing yearly published CPI figures of both countries, what I've got is the "Invest in USD" (or Mexican Stock Market) lethany, to which I just nod about... I would like to know which part of the above cited comment warning may be true, and which not, or even the timing implicit in the announcement (3 years roughly), if there is a significant change that has to be taken into account or if it is just noise in the background. Please add your comments below, Admins, if necessary, please move this thread to the place you find it more pertaining. * EDIT * Forgot to add, on that purchase last friday, I got my first 2008 "Libertad" silver Ounce coin. | ||||||
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Last edited by ocelotl; April 21, 2008, 04:41 PM. Reason: stated in the text, and addition of "silver" where necesary.sigpic
Attention: Electronics Engineer Learning Economics. -
Re: Roland Watson commentary dated April 21st 2008
Ocelotl -
It's probably reasonably straightforward. Decide where you think energy prices are going in the next 20 years and invest for inflation accordingly. Sharply higher energy prices will be inevitably met by increasing government liquidity - in ALL countries. This will be especially true of former OPEC or non OPEC oil exporting countries, who have kept national petroleum prices artificially low due to their domestic oil production. As their oil for export dries up, a large part of their foreign earnings disappears, the subsidies of low domestic energy prices vanish, you get social unrest, and the government is forced against the wall to begin to paper over the shortfalls in public services with fiat inflation.
Where oil prices go, so go the precious metals. Especially Mexico, as Cantarell is the second largest field in the world and is entering catastrophic decline. And your point of the Mexican Peso being overvalued to the USD is complicated, as the USD remains arguably still heavily 'overvalued' relative to it's balance of payment problems. What will determine the Peso's international value most of all should be dwindling oil for export. All the commodity currencies are underpinned by their commodities continuing availability. In Mexico's case as Cantarell production drops in very sharp 10% annual production declines, a very sharp downward pressure would be logical to expect in the Peso.
And to add complexity to the expectations, Mexico is one of the largest silver producers in the world, so one of the more probable candidate countries to re-introduce silver at least as a fractional backing to a revalued monetary unit in some intermediate term future. I have no idea how probable the reintroduction of precious metals might be, as at least a partial backing to currencies. They did use it for hundreds of years - it's only the last 40 years that lead us to think that the idea of reintroducing precious metal backing for money is a 'ridiculous' or 'antiquated' idea. Still, after nearly 40 years of fiat currencies worldwide, and a vastly larger global monetary base, maybe we really can't go back there at all.
But if some partial precious metals backing of currencies were ever reintroduced even marginally, a bi-metallic monetary standard would be a high probability for Mexico, due to it's large silver reserves. If inflation worldwide ratchets up due to sharply increasing petroleum prices in the next couple of decades, Mexico could reap quite a big dividend from their silver! In my view your instincts are correct - keep buying silver and wait for this market to come to you. Petroleum prices have nowhere to go but up in the next 20 years as the world searches frantically for truly mass-scale alternative energy substitutes. The transition can easily see very high energy prices, and silver is an excellent inflation proxy. Just my two cents.
Last edited by Contemptuous; April 21, 2008, 04:48 PM. -
Re: Roland Watson commentary dated April 21st 2008
"The term is taken from an alleged story of how John F. Kennedy’s father sold his stocks prior to the 1929 crash because his shoeshine boy was giving him stock tips over his shoes. Kennedy correctly deduced that this was a sign of an extremely overbought market and took it as a sell signal."
If it was the well-connected Joe Kennedy, one wonders if this was just an artful cover story to an insider trade.It's Economics vs Thermodynamics. Thermodynamics wins.Comment
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Re: Roland Watson commentary dated April 21st 2008
this silver analyst guy is another staring hard into the rear view mirror.Originally posted by ocelotl View Post
the current inflation is nothing like anything that has happened before.
shorting it has proven deadly.
north americans are not buying gold like the shoeshine boy they are selling because they are broke.Comment
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Re: Roland Watson commentary dated April 21st 2008
Well, thanks to confirm my suspicions. The only point where it all called my attention was seeing that "2008" in a coin. Still haven't got any "2007" silver coinage...sigpic
Attention: Electronics Engineer Learning Economics.Comment
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Re: Roland Watson commentary dated April 21st 2008
Apmex.com , tulving.com, bulliondirect.com are currently sold out of the 2008 Silver American Eagles. I am a newbie to the PM coin market. I have only been tracking it since early April. Based on the activity on the above 3 online sites, there seems to be a fairly big demand pull on silver. There was a mid-April Silver Eagle shipment to these firms, which sold out in a few days. The premiums per coin have also gone up over the last month.Originally posted by ocelotl View Post
The silver Canadian Maple Leaf and Mexican Libertads seem to be getting increased demand, also. Apmex has Libertads, but nothing in 2007; the 2008 Libertads are at $5.5 over spot this evening.Comment
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Re: Roland Watson commentary dated April 21st 2008
i think the article in the link is simplistic. i think it is foolish to get overly focused on one newspaper headline. there will be many headlines during the course of the pm bull market. it is easy to see the archetypal contrary indicator in retrospect. [though many pointed to the time magazine "home $weet home" cover in june '05 at the time of its publication, nailing the peak.]
the course of a bull market involves the gradual conversion of non-believers to believers and buyers. there has to be publicity along the way for this to happen. therefore the publicity cannot, in general, be a contrary indicator every time it occurs. finding the extreme case which is in fact an indicator, is not so easy.
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Re: Roland Watson commentary dated April 21st 2008
Now that you note it, I went to make a direct comparison:Originally posted by ronin View Post
APMEX Price versus Banco Azteca Price (in Mexican Pesos and the one I use as reference for my transactions)... they look similar if we take the cheapest APMEX price, but that means 20 or more rounds dated 1985, with the old "Centenario" design... Anyway, silver is silver.sigpic
Attention: Electronics Engineer Learning Economics.Comment
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Ronald Watson self answer dated May 2nd 2008.
Well, it seems Ronald Watson has answered himself...Originally posted by ocelotl View Post
Well, for my part, I'm still on "hold" on my portfolio. So far into the year, measured in pesos (MXN) is still growing at 5.5% yearly, but measured in dollars (USD) it is going at 18% yearly. I'm still not shorting my Euro linked CD, neither the Libertad silver stack (2 coins dated 2008 among all).
A couple of weeks back I put out an article saying that “The Shoeshine Boy” principle may have flagged a major top in the gold market. The Times cover trumpeting gold was published one trading day before gold’s $1030 top and is shown below.The Death Of Gold Revisited
By Roland Watson 
May 2 2008 2:11PM
www.silveranalyst.blogspot.com
Not surprisingly this generated a number of emails from gold bulls which with one exception disagreed to the point of employing four letter words you would not even use against alleged members of a gold cartel. Let me clarify one point, the use of the phrase “Death of Gold” was a play on the phrase “Death of Equities” though some readers thought this meant gold going back to $300 for the next 20 years.
Gold is still in a bull market but now it is time to explain one aspect of gold bull markets that gold investors probably ignore and that is sizeable corrections big enough to be called bear markets. Now when gold investors think of reaping in precious metal profits they think of the gold bull of 1970 to 1980 as a benchmark. The graph for that familiar event is shown below.
Continued...
Today my father told me that the gold area on the jewelry section on a Big Box store he went on Wednesday was empty... This is not over as it seems.sigpic
Attention: Electronics Engineer Learning Economics.Comment
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Re: Roland Watson commentary dated April 21st 2008
Reviving and follow up of this thread.
Looking back, we have been told this all last 5 months have been a correction... If the follow up this guy happens to be true, we are very near the turning point... Bets could be between today and Jan 20th (Oath ceremony).
Back in April I wrote an article entitled “The Death of Gold” which suggested a longer term correction was on the cards for gold. I was partly led to that conclusion by the headline article below from The London Times dated 14th March 2008. Three days later gold topped at $1032 and has dropped as much as $773 for a 25% correction. Silver has not surprisingly fared worse with a drop as great as 45% due to its thinner and more volatile markets.The Rebirth of Gold and Silver
By Roland Watson
Sep 10 2008 9:33AM
www.silveranalyst.blogspot.com
We exited most of our silver positions at $18 at the end of March and have not been back in since apart from the odd drip feeding of physical bullion. The reason was purely down to Elliott Wave analysis and the following interpretation gleaned from the five year silver chart.
Continue...
I just spent 3 weeks waiting to see how it all evolved. Silver in MXN is now below any of my last year purchases, and as mentioned in other threads, paper market is puzzling us...
I wanted to get Centenarios below 10,000 MXN or Aztecas below 4,000 MXN or Hidalgos below 2,000 MXN sometime this year, and this seems to be the moment.
*EDIT*
Forgot to add some details on this follow up. My euro position has been ditched completely in July, and I have got so far 5 "2008" libertads among the ones already gotten. No "2007" yet.sigpic
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