Data on the food crisis

[*T*]

Re: Data on the food crisis

Lukester, the head in the jar avatar was President of Earth Nixon, preserved in a jar, from the animated series Futurama.
His jar has just gone away for scheduled maintenance, he should be back by the time you read this.
The anarchist flag you see in lieu is a test page.

[edit: though I like your description of Nixon as a civil servant, which is, after all, all a president is.]

[c1ue]

Re: Data on the food crisis

The US has been the world's largest food donor for many decades. Of course there are ways to explain it away cynically (surpluses, gaining cynical political capital, etc) but my point is, if you elevate the cynicism of your international analysis to a permanently preeminent position in your world view

Lukester,

I understand your point about keeping an open mind, and it is a very good thing to keep in mind.

But I only have to look at the US farm subsidy to immediately realize that food aid to other nations is simply a double edged sword - both sides benefitting constituents:

1) US can prop up food prices in an era (now ending) where these were low
2) US can build goodwill and support US friendly dictators in countries with lots of poor hungry people

Sure, I can ascribe the US food aid policy to altruism.

And the ethanol policy is all about what's good for everyone.

As has been said before, somehow by sheer chance, the same class of people always benefit.

p.s. Communism is wrong due to people being selfish status hungry bastards, but Marx is still a great economist.

[Guest]

Re: Data on the food crisis

... US can build goodwill and support US friendly dictators in countries with lots of poor hungry people.

C1ue - it would not be too difficult to demonstrate why this description may verge upon caricature, insofar as it's a stretch to describe every last recipient of US food aid in the past 60 years as no more than a "US friendly dictator". One does not want to be too cavalier in one's consignment of a third of the world's nations to a status where their receipt of food aid from the US has the sole function of propping up dictators, does one?

Presumably all this food was actually consumed by hungry people, and in it's absence they might have starved? - The challenge or insight might be described as distinguishing between the relatively modest benefits to the dictator in question (shoring up his popularity) vs. the somewhat wider benefits to a few million people (shoring up the "absence of death" by starvation)? Such an assessment, to historically identify the more significant component of the benefits of food aid granted across the span of sixty years might in the above context in fact be described as the real "realism"?

[GRG55]

Re: Data on the food crisis

C1ue - it would not be too difficult to demonstrate why this description may verge upon caricature, insofar as it's a stretch to describe every last recipient of US food aid in the past 60 years as no more than a "US friendly dictator". One does not want to be too cavalier in one's consignment of a third of the world's nations to a status where their receipt of food aid from the US has the sole function of propping up dictators, does one?

Presumably all this food was actually consumed by hungry people, and in it's absence they might have starved? - The challenge or insight might be described as distinguishing between the relatively modest benefits to the dictator in question (shoring up his popularity) vs. the somewhat wider benefits to a few million people (shoring up the "absence of death" by starvation)? Such an assessment, to historically identify the more significant component of the benefits of food aid granted across the span of sixty years might in the above context in fact be described as the real "realism"?

Maybe it was just a giant welfare program to support US farmers?

...Personally - and this is an opinion not based on hard fact - I think it is mostly monetary inflation, I think peak oil and global warming are not hitting the economy or prices yet.

Having said that OPEC just refused to raise production again - maybe they can't?

Why shouldn't OPEC hoard oil? Where do we think they learned it? ;)

After all the US Strategic Petroleum Reserve is nothing more than a Federally sponsored, taxpayer-funded, national crude oil hoarding program, isn't it?

[c1ue]

Re: Data on the food crisis

it would not be too difficult to demonstrate why this description may verge upon caricature, insofar as it's a stretch to describe every last recipient of US food aid in the past 60 years as no more than a "US friendly dictator". One does not want to be too cavalier in one's consignment of a third of the world's nations to a status where their receipt of food aid from the US has the sole function of propping up dictators, does one?

Lukester,

You clearly haven't read Dr. Michael Hudson's book: Super Imperialism, nor followed up with some Library of Congress fact checking.

Directly from the WW II era US labor board - headed by none other than the pre-presidential Harry Truman - the dictate to ensure full employment in the United States via a policy of agricultural and capital machinery exports.

This policy then clearly implemented via the lending policies of the IMF and World Bank, again clearly demonstrable via World Bank and IMF policies in the ensuing decades after WW II.

That the subsidy of US farmers did not feed some people, there is no question.

That the subsidy begat the feeding, or vice versa, is the question.

Then there's the whole issue of pushing all other nations to industrialize and farm as the US did - conveniently needing to buy US machinery and US farm products to do so.

So no, my assertion is NOT a sweeping generalization, nor is it a caricature. Unlike your newsletter facts, my facts are verifiable in historical annals.

It is an assertion borne of consistent US, World Bank, and IMF policy since WW II.

Perhaps you'd care to consume some information other than in a subscribed monthly format?

[Shakespear]

Re: Data on the food crisis

If someone has any questions about supply/demand issues with respect to oil/gas I suggest the site theoildrum.com. I tend to spend my time their as I'm a petroleum engineer. Another place that may be of interest with regard to Pet. Industry issues is peakoil.com.

Regards

PS: I found this site when I stepped on the the discussion of 1995 and Greenspan. Great info on this site !!!!

[kingcopper]

Re: Data on the food crisis

The word "credit" will take on all new meanings shortly. Water credit, carbon credit, prayer credit, school credit, criminal credit, petro credit, credit cards...on and on; all a tax.

Listen to Bloomberg on the boob tube but don't watch. All you hear in the commercials is "trust" and "credit"!

[AmericanBushi]

Re: Data on the food crisis

More grist for the mill....

http://allafrica.com/stories/200804230380.html

Gosh, I wonder if the generation growing up hungry (see article above) will help the "war on terror?" Please read the carefully hidden sarcasm... ;)

[Guest]

Re: Data on the food crisis

Jtabeb:
Congratulations for your writing.
At some point, we should look at things on an ethical point of view.
Talking about "monetary inflation" as origin of the crisis is baseless. That's because those earning a salary, specially in poor countries are not seeing their salaries "inflate", following food prices.
Paul Krugman's column today at NYT is very illustrative.
However the implications to asset allocation for those who have the resources, time and money to think that way, this crisis needs us to think in ways to reduce consumption of ever scarcer resources.
High taxes on gas and electricity for air conditioning, etc should be implemented shortly.
And most of that money should be used to improve food production in poor countries.
It's just a bit of self preservation for inhabitants of developed world, which means also rich or medium class population in underdeveloped places.
żWhen will the hunger striken get hold on arms to strike back?
Just think of that and you'll find 9/11 just kid's play.

This waste of resources can't go on any more. And, yes, Fidel Castro was right. But he's been warning the world about this problems for more than 30 years now.
Humanity can't live by western standards. At some time, westerners, as defined previously shall have to reduce our consumption patterns.

You lack an understanding that food is bought/sold on a world market, not within the bounds of a single nation. Monetary inflation doesn't occur through salary increases. If suddenly Americans have tons more cash chasing corn, that corn is going to be driven up in price. If someone in Uganda has to buy corn, don't you think that affects the price THEY pay also?

Your high tax idea only hurts the poor. I doubt the guy in the 6,000 ft McMansion is going to turn the thermostat up in the summertime over another $100 in tax. But the poor family will miss the $20 extra they pay in taxes.

You also lack an understanding of history. Failed nations with failed economic systems who lack our idea of liberty, respect for property, and free markets to incent people to grow crops efficiently have been suffering famine for centuries.

It's a result of their own idiocy and poor decision making, not luck or natural resources or the fact that we have so much in comparison. We don't "use up" natural resources they need. The soil in Kansas isn't exportable. Neither is the water. Bauxite depletion is not really a factor in some poor asian village now, is it? Are they waiting in lines for gasoline for their SUV's in a town full of thatched huts?

Societies who can afford WMD's can certainly afford food. We can't MAKE people run their economies properly. Or prevent their home-grown kleptocrats from stealing their nations' wealth. You seem to be suggesting a socialist world order where resources and knowledge are stolen from others at the point of a gun. I reject your "solution".

Its funny how some societies were better off 200 years ago than others are today. Or how some are just emerging from poverty by using the right gameplan. India's newfound prosperity occured only after they rejected socialism, not because of it. Rather than taxing and wealth-distributing our way to equally shared poverty, maybe some of these societies should grow the $#$ up and start doing things right for a change.

And anyone who uses the phrase "Fidel Castro was right" really doesn't have much I find useful to add at iTulip. He did such a great job with their economy, let's turn to him for the answers!

[ax]

Re: Data on the food crisis

You lack an understanding that food is bought/sold on a world market, not within the bounds of a single nation. Monetary inflation doesn't occur through salary increases. If suddenly Americans have tons more cash chasing corn, that corn is going to be driven up in price. If someone in Uganda has to buy corn, don't you think that affects the price THEY pay also?

Your high tax idea only hurts the poor. I doubt the guy in the 6,000 ft McMansion is going to turn the thermostat up in the summertime over another $100 in tax. But the poor family will miss the $20 extra they pay in taxes.

You also lack an understanding of history. Failed nations with failed economic systems who lack our idea of liberty, respect for property, and free markets to incent people to grow crops efficiently have been suffering famine for centuries.

It's a result of their own idiocy and poor decision making, not luck or natural resources or the fact that we have so much in comparison. We don't "use up" natural resources they need. The soil in Kansas isn't exportable. Neither is the water. Bauxite depletion is not really a factor in some poor asian village now, is it? Are they waiting in lines for gasoline for their SUV's in a town full of thatched huts?

Societies who can afford WMD's can certainly afford food. We can't MAKE people run their economies properly. Or prevent their home-grown kleptocrats from stealing their nations' wealth. You seem to be suggesting a socialist world order where resources and knowledge are stolen from others at the point of a gun. I reject your "solution".

Its funny how some societies were better off 200 years ago than others are today. Or how some are just emerging from poverty by using the right gameplan. India's newfound prosperity occured only after they rejected socialism, not because of it. Rather than taxing and wealth-distributing our way to equally shared poverty, maybe some of these societies should grow the $#$ up and start doing things right for a change.

And anyone who uses the phrase "Fidel Castro was right" really doesn't have much I find useful to add at iTulip. He did such a great job with their economy, let's turn to him for the answers!

A bit scathing, Bruce, but I'm in agreement. Look no further than the angry little man to the North. The average 8-year-old in the North is seven inches shorter and 20 pounds lighter than a South Korean child of the same age. Countries full of 3 billion people probably won't stand for wages of $1/day forever.....sounds like you're a Jared Diamond fan?

Hey, I'm official now. Thanks for letting me chime in for free.

[GRG55]

Re: Data on the food crisis

More grist for the mill....

http://allafrica.com/stories/200804230380.html

Gosh, I wonder if the generation growing up hungry (see article above) will help the "war on terror?" Please read the carefully hidden sarcasm... ;)

A Feb post...
http://www.itulip.com/forums/showthr...gram#post28481

The situation at the World Food Program continues to deteriorate. No amount of criticism about "socialist" policies in other jurisdictions impeding their ability to grow crops efficiently is going to make any difference.

The WFP cutting off 450,000 kids in Cambodia alone? Wow.

Lukester, I'm sure you would agree that this has all the potential to be a MUCH bigger disaster, much more quickly, than a squeeze on crude oil or gasoline.

[Guest]

Re: Data on the food crisis

Lukester, I'm sure you would agree that this has all the potential to be a MUCH bigger disaster, much more quickly, than a squeeze on crude oil or gasoline.

GRG55 -

How up to date are you old chap? Don't we acknowledge half the problem with out of control grain prices is due to grains being redirected to ethanol? Surely you don't suggest all the agri-inflation is occurring due to fiat money abuse alone. Some fundamental issue must exist in the commodity to spark the financially induced bubble, no?

This is a great example of the kind of selective blindness which can occur if one begins to "rearrange" components of the observed reality (creeping energy tightness at a fundamental level) to obey one's socio-political requirements. In your case the sociopolitical requirement seems to "require" your dismissal of even the faintest manifestation of "energy alarmism" to creep into your assessments.

I very much admire all your posts here GRG55, and what they reveal of your character. I offer all my critcsm, even the most pointed criticism, wth full respect and solidarity to one and all here. There is absolutely nothing personal in it.

I must point out however the stubborn, even irrational dissociative approach, of those here who insist on regarding all the stresses which have become painfully manifest in commodities as "purely a financial event". In the next breath if you really press them on it, they will concede that "yes, we do have aproaching Peak Cheap Oil in ten years" and "yes we do have a world that will add another 400 million people within another five years" as we break through 7 billion before 2015.

You might consent to recognise the cognitive dissonance wherein such determined optimists and technology fans resolutely spin the meaning of food inflation which has a direct causal link to diversion of grains to ethanol. These people, finding their energy crisis denying viewpoint so ideologically comfy, will wind up getting painted into a corner, same as MISH, by a refusal to incorporate the rapidly changing reality into their assessments.

Grains are going into tightness not only because of fiat money dysfunction - but also because of emerging petroleum market "dysfunction", which is called runaway global energy demand (a runaway train without brakes heading to 50% growth in 20 years) vs. flat to declining global all liquids production growth, which has arrived, or will be here in about ten minutes. Some of us see it without any ideologically induced exasperation (I am a moderate conservative, same as you after all, but see the emerging tightness in petroleum as far more a harbinger than you do) but some others "need" to percieve it as all a bunch of agitated arm flapping doomers, making too much noise.

When we start to see bidding wars between nations starting to occur for petroleum contracts, maybe in five to seven years (or how about maybe even next year?) how ideologically exasperated will such blinkered observers have become? It is not an enviable predicament to adopt ideas so selectively vs. the emerging reality (food crisis is always and everywhere a monetary phenomenon? :rolleyes, because it will paint such people into a corner.

Keeping one's views on what symptoms are emerging in the energy markets fully open, porous and pliable, we have no trouble incorporating fast emerging events into our full picture. In this case, people with no ideological baggage are perfectly willing to admit that some signs of petroleum supply stress are very much a part of the picture. Claiming all this distress in hydrocarbons energy which is now spilling over into agri-inflation can instead only be a symptom of fiat money dysfunction, which is somehow hermetically sealed off from energy fundamentals, is just silly.

Mish's predicament, borne of the interpretation of events which he embarked on years ago which "required" certain causes and denied other potential causes, wound up painting him into a corner. It should be a warning to all here - to always, always keep one's sociopolitically derived skepticisms well in check. To be genuinely agnostic today, is to fully incorporate peak cheap oil into one's thinking now, not in some nebulous tomorrow. Why? Because this community has already acknowledged that peak cheap oil is real and is imminent. To deny blatantly obvious signs of it's presence today in the ethanol story would be a fine example of collective irrationality, wouldn't it?

Emerging threats of starvation, which you call the "clear and present danger", cannot be extricated from what's happening with this stupid ethanol craze. Well now, why on earth do you imagine the world is suddenly so infatuated with ethanol?

_____________

China’s coal inventory has shrunk to a 12-day supply

( A.K.A - another fine example of dysfunction in the energy markets brought about by monetary inflation! :confused: [NOT] )

According to the Chinese state media this morning, the country’s reserves are down to 46 million tons. That’s less than two weeks’ supply for the whole county. Some regions, like the Hebei province, are reporting reserves down to less than a week.

Currently, 70% of China’s energy is generated by coal-fired power plants. Luckily for them, there aren’t any gigantic global events happening in the near future that will attract millions of extra tourists and put an incredible strain on the nation’s power grid.

Wait, uh-oh…

[c1ue]

Re: Data on the food crisis

Food price increases thus far have been triggered by ethanol subsidies and cyclical weather occurrences, but are being extended by hoarding.

Look into some classic grain price behaviors - such as during the siege of Stalingrad as an example.

[Guest]

Re: Data on the food crisis

Food price increases thus far have been triggered by ethanol subsidies and cyclical weather occurrences, but are being extended by hoarding.

Yes - food price increases have also been triggered by generalized monetary inflation. And of course energy market disequilibria have been very much part of the mix, but more submerged, at the root cause levels.

[Guest]

Re: Data on the food crisis

GRAINS INFLATION AND EMERGING NATIONAL EMBARGOS

A U.N. “peacekeeper” was dragged out of his car and shot in Haiti, where riots over the price of food occur almost daily. In the Ivory Coast, a mob of 1,500 overturned cars and burnt tires while chanting, “We are hungry.” Senegal, Kenya, Egypt, Cameroon, Jordan, Yemen, Pakistan, India, Mexico, Mozambique, Zimbabwe and yet others are seeing food-related unrest, riots. Demonstrations occurring around the world this week.

Fueling the fire, Brazil announced this morning that the country would halt all rice exports. According to the Brazilian Agricultural Department, the country grows more rice than it consumes, but has nonetheless chosen to nix all exports to “follow the movement of the principal world producers.” African and Latin American countries had outstanding orders with Brazil for over 500,000 tons of rice. They won’t be filled now.

USD CURRENCY'S COLLAPSE RIPPLES AROUND WORLD

More dollars are chasing the same bags of the stuff. Same relationship between the prices of rice and oil, demonstrating the rise in oil process against the depreciating dollar. Same thing with coal, iron ore and many other goods that trade on world markets. People from China to Chile are exchanging their depreciating dollars for things of value. Whether it is rice, oil, industrial metals, gold or silver, the prices are on a long upward trend.

This news contains echoes of Weimar Germany going global.