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  • #16
    Re: Iraq to open oil up to foreign contractors

    Originally posted by BiscayneSunrise View Post
    Medved, Now that AK 47 remark really was funny!

    Excellent point about the Carter Doctrine. I would say that George Bush is a modern day Woodrow Wilson. He wants the US to be the catalyst for nascent democracies, willing to commit troops, money and political capital, even to the point of the ruination of his reputation.
    I have compared George W. Bush to Woodrow Wilson in the past when thinking of a comparable president, so 25 brownie points to you for confirming my private analysis. But I think you're giving him and Wilson far too much credit though. Wilson did little to be honest, was far too idealistic for his own good, and provided the catalyst that officially started World War II when he separated Danzig from Germany to give the new state of Poland access to the sea. And he then spent the end of his presidency on his couch as a cripple and his wife ran the country for about a year.

    For comparison, Bush has irreparably hurt our country's financial wellbeing partially through the deficit and our country's inability to curtail spending and raise taxes to pay for it. Then there's the war, whether you think it is a good war or not is irrelevant, the U.S. still have to pay for it, and we instead cut taxes. How does cutting taxes pay for our troops and our equipment's deployment? Him and his policies, both foreign and domestic, have even more ensured that my generation, Generation Y or Generation Next, whatever you want to call us, that our future is f***ed so that he doesn't have to make the Baby Boomer assholes and the Generation X assholes pay for his administration's excursions. And when my kids ask me why were times so much better in Grandma and Grandpa's era from their stories, one of the stories I will relate to them will be George W. Bush's presidency, the Congress, and the dumb idiots that made up our electorate.

    U.S. Congress to the Next Generation --Drop Dead:

    Announcing the economic stimulus package agreed to last week by both parties in the House of Representatives, Speaker of the House Nancy Pelosi declared that typical Americans can expect to receive a "stipend" of $300 to $1,200. Stipend -- will we get a federally funded sherry hour, too? Calling a government check a "stipend," to make it seem lofty and grand, reflects the modern affection CEOs have for calling the cash they receive "compensation" rather than pay, and consultants and speakers insist on saying they are receiving "honoraria" rather than pay. There is nothing wrong with receiving pay! And no reason to employ euphemisms.

    The stimulus bill will cost about $150 billion and consists entirely of deficit spending. The secondary euphemism being employed in Washington is to call the checks "tax rebates." But they are not rebates, meaning partial returns of monies paid -- they are pure borrowing. Which is to say, Congress will award most current American adults $300 to $1,200 each, then send the bill to future American adults. Suppose that instead, each American adult today set aside $300 at 5 percent interest. In 20 years, that money would grow to $800, and likely much more if invested in stocks. Such savings would be good for the U.S. economy, which, since 2001, has seen a negative national savings rate. China's national savings rate is currently almost 50 percent. Savings is one reason the Chinese economy is growing far faster than the U.S. economy; the U.S. savings rate is close to negative-4 percent, and our economic growth is sputtering.

    The framers said, "We mutually pledge to each other our lives, our fortunes and our sacred honor."

    Today's Congress: "We mutually pledge to pretend to believe what we just promised until the first second it is politically convenient to do the opposite."

    But rather than help the U.S. economy grow in a generous way that forgoes a little today to gain a lot tomorrow, the American people -- through their representatives in Congress -- just reached into the pockets of future citizens in order to spend more on themselves right now. Explain to me why this is considered a populist action by Congress?

    Bear in mind, the stimulus package announced last week is only an agreement between the two parties in the House. Lawmakers on both sides of the aisle in the Senate currently are scrambling to add their own pet projects to the legislation -- whenever a big spending bill moves, there's always a bidding war in which Republicans and Democrats vie to see who can stage the biggest giveaway. The damage to the national debt might get worse because what's happening now is the environment Congress likes best -- an environment of zero fiscal discipline. Lobbyists for retirees, who already are subsidized by the young, are complaining that their special interest isn't being showered with free money by the stimulus bill; lobbyists for pork-barrel projects that could never withstand logical scrutiny are maneuvering to wrap them in the flag and add them to the stimulus bill. By the time the stimulus bill leaves Capitol Hill, the young might be saddled with yet more debt so that members of Congress can congratulate themselves as they hand checks to politically connected fat-cat donors or to retirees already drawing out of Social Security far more than they put in, plus interest.

    Next, recall that on Jan. 4, 2007, both houses of Congress agreed with considerable fanfare on the Paygo measure, which stated that under no circumstances -- under no circumstances, never, regardless of conditions! -- would Congress enact any bill that increases the federal debt. According to the Paygo legislation, the House and Senate are forbidden even to debate legislation that would increase the debt. ("It shall not be in order to consider any bill, joint resolution, amendment or conference report if the provisions of such measure affecting direct spending and revenues have the net effect of increasing the deficit …") Paygo rules specify that all bills causing appropriations increases or tax favors must be offset be spending reductions or tax increases. When Paygo was enacted, many members of Congress from both parties, prominently Speaker Pelosi, patted themselves on the back in public.

    How long did this incredible resolve last? Six weeks ago, Congress passed a reduction of the Alternative Minimum Tax; the bill cut taxes by $51 billion but provides no offsetting revenues. Originally, the measure would have reduced the AMT for the middle class while raising taxes by an equal amount on the upper crust of venture capitalists and hedge-fund managers. All the revenue increases ended up deleted -- hedge-fund managers showered members of Congress with campaign donations -- but the tax cuts were approved. Congress ladled out the $51 billion entirely from deficit spending, then handed the bill to the young. Now, the stimulus package goes even further, at least $150 billion in gravy without spending cuts or offsetting revenue increases. Barely 12 months after pledging never, ever again to add to the federal debt, Congress will add at least $201 billion to the federal debt. The federal deficit for the most recent fiscal year, which ended before either of the new actions, was $163 billion. Congress has, in the past six weeks alone, added more to the federal debt than the entire federal deficit for the most recent fiscal year.

    It's impossible to be sure, but a rough guess might be that every dollar added to the deficit today represents two dollars subtracted from future economic growth -- which in turn means two dollars taken from the pockets of tomorrow's American adults. This is a cynical exercise, robbing future Americans in order to please voters today, and to inspire interest groups to make political donations to incumbents. When are citizens under 30 going to wake up to the disagreeable fact that the country's current leadership, of both parties, is giving them the shaft in order to heap special favors on current voters who refuse to live within their means? Then handing the young the bill.
    The above article is why I will vote for the first politician that says he will kill Social Security. I don't care how long anyone paid into it, I know I'm not getting it. You want to screw up my future Generation X and Baby Boomers? Misery loves company.

    He is then also responsible for giving Hamas political power and strengthening Iran's hand in the Persian Gulf region by overthrowing Saddam and the aftermath. The latter I can somewhat forgive him for, the former I won't because it was just sheer idiocy.

    To Fred's point, the US is mostly interested in the Gulf region because of oil. But if it was ONLY about oil, then the US would be supporting whatever dictator happened to be in charge of the spigots and leave it at that.
    Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, Bahrain, Yemen, Oman, the American/British-installed Shah of Iran when he was still there...

    No, there is something larger going on here and despite whatever Obama and Hillary may say otherwise, the US will remain a political and diplomatic presence in the Gulf , even well after the oil runs out.
    There is something larger, but I'm not sure what it is. It sure as heck is not just Iraqi democracy, which will most likely continue as a pseudo-democracy for sometime, kind of like an African country or Russia where the election and the will of the people only counts as long as the ruling leader and his party wins. (cough*Zimbabwe*cough)

    And if the oil runs out, we would have no geopolitical concerns for our country in the region, so why would we care about it?
    Last edited by rj1; April 16, 2008, 08:20 PM.

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    • #17
      Re: Iraq to open oil up to foreign contractors

      Originally posted by medved View Post
      Not quite. He wants a stable Iraq accessible to western oil interests ala Saudi Arabia, whatever political structure it takes. I don't remember US ever objecting to a stable monarchy.
      Spot on Medved.

      We might also consider that the US has acquiesced not just to Western Nations free access to Middle East oil, but apparently now also to all the oil majors in the world, including China, (against whom the US is now in tight competition for access to oil!). As is painfully obvious to any of us willing to look (and we are apparently few), the US Govt. is hardly employing 'mafioso tactics' in coralling all the avialable large oilfield contracts to itself.

      What to you get in sum? It would certainly appear from the evidence, that at least one component of the US's interest for the past half century has been to ensure that this region, where 40% of all the world's remaining petroleum is situated, continues to allow oil to be sold in a global spot market with no restrictions other than price, so that this vital resource does not fall into any 'permanent politically driven oil embargo' incited by any one nation with a wish to cause the global economic community to kneel to it's bidding.

      Such a precedent could literally strangle the world - so those grumbling darkly and incoherently about 'neo-imperialism' implicit in such security guarantees that have been extended for decades to Gulf States which they are in an inordinate rush to consider "mere US puppets", need to soberly consider the consequences if any radicalized nation or alliance of nations gained sway over OPEC policy sufficient to permanently politicize the sale of future oil. Very ugly prospect for everyone, from North Korea to Sweden, to Argentina, all across the world.

      NO. 'security guarantees' of the Gulf States have NOT been a figleaf euphemism for "controlling all the oil FOR THE USA". Take off your ideologically exasperated tinted spectacles and take a look at how many nations all over the world have been buying middle east oil in a free spot market for the past 60 years. US has never impeded that, and in fact arguably has committed it's security guarantees to insure that open market could persist.

      To fixate on the US's massive internal flaws, such as systematic USD abuse by the US FED, (e.g. abusing the US dollar heavily as the oil purchase currency) while maintaining those security guarantees to the Gulf States is to pick away in ideological frustration at the details, while refusing to glance at the main issue - which is that if these Middle East nations truly were "mere puppets" of the US how on earth did they have the freedom to SLAM THE US TWICE already in past decades with OIL EMBARGOS over political issues?

      The flawed "UP Puppets" logic is like an old sock with a gaping hole in the toe.

      Anyone who claims that the US security guarantees of Gulf States for the past half century have been merely to secure exclusive access to that oil for the US alone is talking through their hat. Whatever ugly warts and blemishes the US may have, and they are probably many, the security guarantees it provided to Gulf states for more than half a century never have precluded those nations selling a good part of their oil to any international bidder in a free global spot market.

      When confronted with BS, "JUST SAY NO"!

      Comment


      • #18
        Re: Iraq to open oil up to foreign contractors

        OK, with Iraq opening it's largest fields to every last oil major in the world, it would appear even iTulip's editors have incorrectly concluded that "it was all about the oil".

        Spend one trillion++ USD to "secure the oil" in Iraq. Uh huh ...

        How much oil purchased on the open market at spot rates does a trillion dollars buy? How about a risk/reward analysis based on a pure petroleum resource grab with no other compelling reason on the table? The political risk alone, to a sitting president's reputation while he eyes his re-election chances would make a mere petty grab for oil a calculation with absurdly unfavorable odds.

        Methinks a few of us have jumped a wee bit too eagerly to conclusions on the merit of that assessment. :rolleyes:

        Here's a bunch of overpaid and purportedly terminally stupid analysts at the Pentagon cooking up a plan to "secure the oil, for Dubya and Amerika" with a venture risk factor that's off the charts and an unkown price tag. Those nerds at the Pentagon must have employed the Pentagon Weekend Janitor to do the cost benefit analysis before plunging confidently into that bit of neo-imperialism.

        To read Greenspan claim in his memoirs that "it was all about the oil", rather than instill in me any awe at his shrewdness, I find instilled in me rather a dumbstruck amazement at his faltering, knuckleheaded grasp of the complexity of the question. I'd conclude it would be best to leave Greenspan out of trouble, safely tucked away running the Central Bank, but of course he apparently had a befuddled sense of the issues within that job as well.

        "No blood for Oil!". This slogan has had so much mileage extracted from it the treads on the tire must be worn down to the canvas.

        Start a war in Iraq to topple Hussein, with euphoric expectations of a business friendly, docile conclusion, with no international political costs, and your motive for the entire venture is the dubious assurance of securing the oil for America in perpetuity so you can amortize back the cost?

        Heh. We know some Pentagon planners and various of the Secretaries of Government gravely miscalculated - but to have stacked the table with all these imponderables and costs for an uncertain claim upon the oil alone, would predicate a degree of sophistication worthy precisely of the above referenced Pentagon Weekend Janitor.

        The greatest pitfall in assessing events with accuracy and realism is to presume those we wish to criticize to be far stupider than ourselves. If we indulge that comfortable viewpoint, we tend to arrive at facile conclusions.

        Methinks Medved is one of the few genuine realists we have around here.

        Comment


        • #19
          Re: Iraq to open oil up to foreign contractors

          Originally posted by Lukester View Post
          OK, with Iraq opening it's largest fields to every last oil major in the world, it would appear even iTulip's editors have incorrectly concluded that "it was all about the oil".

          Spend one trillion++ USD to "secure the oil" in Iraq. Uh huh ...

          How much oil purchased on the open market at spot rates does a trillion dollars buy? How about a risk/reward analysis based on a pure petroleum resource grab with no other compelling reason on the table? The political risk alone, to a sitting president's reputation while he eyes his re-election chances would make a mere petty grab for oil a calculation with absurdly unfavorable odds.

          Methinks a few of us have jumped a wee bit too eagerly to conclusions on the merit of that assessment. :rolleyes:

          Here's a bunch of overpaid and purportedly terminally stupid analysts at the Pentagon cooking up a plan to "secure the oil, for Dubya and Amerika" with a venture risk factor that's off the charts and an unkown price tag. Those nerds at the Pentagon must have employed the Pentagon Weekend Janitor to do the cost benefit analysis before plunging confidently into that bit of neo-imperialism.

          To read Greenspan claim in his memoirs that "it was all about the oil", rather than instill in me any awe at his shrewdness, I find instilled in me rather a dumbstruck amazement at his faltering, knuckleheaded grasp of the complexity of the question. I'd conclude it would be best to leave Greenspan out of trouble, safely tucked away running the Central Bank, but of course he apparently had a befuddled sense of the issues within that job as well.

          "No blood for Oil!". This slogan has had so much mileage extracted from it the treads on the tire must be worn down to the canvas.

          Start a war in Iraq to topple Hussein, with euphoric expectations of a business friendly, docile conclusion, with no international political costs, and your motive for the entire venture is the dubious assurance of securing the oil for America in perpetuity so you can amortize back the cost?

          Heh. We know some Pentagon planners and various of the Secretaries of Government gravely miscalculated - but to have stacked the table with all these imponderables and costs for an uncertain claim upon the oil alone, would predicate a degree of sophistication worthy precisely of the above referenced Pentagon Weekend Janitor.

          The greatest pitfall in assessing events with accuracy and realism is to presume those we wish to criticize to be far stupider than ourselves. If we indulge that comfortable viewpoint, we tend to arrive at facile conclusions.

          Methinks Medved is one of the few genuine realists we have around here.
          You want a realist's take?

          What was the damn point of this war? It wasn't spreading democracy, to say it was is very unrealistic considering our nation's previous history in foreign policy and the administration's power brokers' views going into power in 2001, so what else was there? No one for six years has been able to answer this question!
          Last edited by rj1; April 16, 2008, 10:44 PM.

          Comment


          • #20
            Re: Iraq to open oil up to foreign contractors

            Originally posted by rj1 View Post
            What was the damn point of this war? ... No one for six years has been able to answer this question!
            It would be a great start for everyone to agree what it was not about. And apparently a majority firmly believe it was 'all about the oil'. How are you going to ensure progress, if you can't even figure out what the precise mistake was? Wilsonian ideals is a great starting point for defining the problem. "Resulting national bankruptcy" is a great rejoinder to the claim "national security". But plodding, unimaginative, "neo-imperial conquest for the oil" is cereal-box-coupon analysis. A smart ten year old could write a better term paper in his history class. Apparently now, in early 2008, we are seeing a vindication of this startling although hugely unpopular and much derided insight that the real motives of the current (admittedly ham fisted) US administration were instead a good deal more complex than the popular street credits.

            Oil companies the world over are being invited to freely bid on developing Iraqi oil resources, and their negotiations will be strictly between them, and the Iraqis. No "American Gangster" standing in there to "Collect the Vigorish" of CNOOC's drilling contracts with whatever Iraqi government ensues.

            The motives were a good deal more complex than this kind of sloganeering analysis would suggest.
            Last edited by Contemptuous; April 17, 2008, 12:32 AM.

            Comment


            • #21
              Re: Iraq to open oil up to foreign contractors

              I think this about sums it up:

              Letter to President Clinton on Iraq, January 26, 1998:


              The policy of “containment” of Saddam Hussein has been steadily eroding over the past several months. As recent events have demonstrated, we can no longer depend on our partners in the Gulf War coalition to continue to uphold the sanctions or to punish Saddam when he blocks or evades UN inspections. Our ability to ensure that Saddam Hussein is not producing weapons of mass destruction, therefore, has substantially diminished. Even if full inspections were eventually to resume, which now seems highly unlikely, experience has shown that it is difficult if not impossible to monitor Iraq’s chemical and biological weapons production. The lengthy period during which the inspectors will have been unable to enter many Iraqi facilities has made it even less likely that they will be able to uncover all of Saddam’s secrets. As a result, in the not-too-distant future we will be unable to determine with any reasonable level of confidence whether Iraq does or does not possess such weapons.


              Such uncertainty will, by itself, have a seriously destabilizing effect on the entire Middle East. It hardly needs to be added that if Saddam does acquire the capability to deliver weapons of mass destruction, as he is almost certain to do if we continue along the present course, the safety of American troops in the region, of our friends and allies like Israel and the moderate Arab states, and a significant portion of the world’s supply of oil will all be put at hazard. As you have rightly declared, Mr. President, the security of the world in the first part of the 21st century will be determined largely by how we handle this threat.

              [..]

              In the near term, this means a willingness to undertake military action as diplomacy is clearly failing. In the long term, it means removing Saddam Hussein and his regime from power.

              Sincerely,
              Elliott Abrams Richard L. Armitage William J. Bennett
              Jeffrey Bergner John Bolton Paula Dobriansky
              Francis Fukuyama Robert Kagan Zalmay Khalilzad
              William Kristol Richard Perle Peter W. Rodman
              Donald Rumsfeld William Schneider, Jr. Vin Weber

              Paul Wolfowitz R. James Woolsey Robert B. Zoellick

              Comment


              • #22
                Re: Iraq to open oil up to foreign contractors

                Originally posted by babbittd View Post
                I think this about sums it up:
                Yes, Babbittd - My thesis was in fact quite cautious and limited - merely observing that quite evidently as a consequence of the manifestly free bidding scheduled to follow shortly over Iraqi oil development, this war was absolutely not merely "about the oil", at least not to those of us who have escaped feeling egregiously ticked off whenever deprived of a talking point to evidence the US as an unmitigated scoundrel in every last respect.

                I would also observe your cited text has some comments about the then anticipated, imminent failure (after a decade of many repeated failures) of the coalition which was stitched together to maintain Iraq's no-fly zones. In case we forget, they were set up with the well intentioned aim of preserving Shia and Kurdish lives from Saddam's predations - not exactly a venal and unscrupulous aim, in and of itself.

                Your cited text, among the canards spouted by the neo-cons you've illustrated so adroitly, was in fact entirely factual about the fatal unravelling of that arduously maintained ten year long enforcement of the no-fly zones, which themselves were wretchedly bare scraps, the ragged leftover vestiges of the Armistice which Saddam tore up and laughed about within months of losing his war to annex Kuwait.

                As I recall, and I was living over in Italy at that time, the rest of the world merely yawned at the spectacle of Saddam spitting on every last term of that signed armistice. The world concluded it was a big yawn, although they were doing anything but yawning when Saddam's tank divisons rolled into Kuwait. That the dog work of containing him after the Armistice was scrapped was dirty work which devolved to the British and Americans is considered a mere weak footnote to ancient history now, but at the time, they were performing it, and the world yawned.

                Apparently armistice documents are on their way out altogether as respectable documents in the 21st Century, as when they are employed to end raging conflicts they are not worth much more than the paper they are drafted on. The HEZBOLLAH armistice document signed with Israel to end the 2006 Israeli Lebanese conflict encountered much the same ignominous end. Seems like a new fashion statement. Start a war. Lose the war you started, or take a pounding anyway. Sign an armistice to sue for peace. Then wipe your metaphorical ass with the Armistice paper and mail it to your adversary for a giggle.

                Everybody knows "how and why the neo-cons were so terribly wrong" at the point of exhaustion after ten years of failure to enforce Saddam's armistice document. And the term "neo-con" is now itself so threadbare as a form of analysis of the complexities in this region (with Iran's theocratic Mullah government now in the mix, the whole picture is becoming like a bad acid trip) that if it is over-employed for another decade it will resemble a moth-eaten two hundred year old Napoleon's overcoat rescued from Waterloo.

                The background leading up to Gulf War II was of a decade of genuinely raging instability surrounding Saddam's rogue government - penned in by no-fly zones, playing the entire world for a fool with it's "oil for food" program, while the world moaned and wailed about UK/US cruelty in depriving Iraqis of a reprieve from this "senseless, endless embargo".

                Remember?
                Last edited by Contemptuous; April 17, 2008, 02:08 AM.

                Comment


                • #23
                  Re: Iraq to open oil up to foreign contractors

                  What about this theory ?
                  Gulf war 2 wasn't about Oil or serving democracy but about big corporate interests. Bush sr. didn't go all the way and we all wondered why not. Bush jr. did but on unlogical reasons. What changed in the time between Gulf war 1 and 2 ? The only significant change was that Saddam started selling oil in any currency but USD. This was a direct threat to the world currency and therefore to big corporate interests.
                  The only effect which stays the same in "who is paying for this war and who is benifitting from it " and "who is paying for the FED's actions and who is benifitting from it" is that big corporate interests stay protected.

                  Comment


                  • #24
                    Re: Iraq to open oil up to foreign contractors

                    Yeesh! I give up. History - (A.K.A. - HYSTERYa) as reinterpreted by conspiracy-mongers and neo-con mongers. You all think it's a worthwhile read, or particularly astute? You can have it.

                    Comment


                    • #25
                      Re: Iraq to open oil up to foreign contractors

                      Hi Lukester
                      History is always written by the victor. But doesn't make it nescarily true for the vanquished.
                      Suppose all you say is true and we should believe blue eyes, then why isn't democracy forcibly installed in other non-democratic countries (almost all of the Middle East) with a tendency to weapons of mass destruction (Iran, Libya). I can only notice that the prolonged military presence in Iraq is only serving bigtime capital and not the average US military man's family or the average Iraqi or the US taxpayer. Up till now estimates of 655.000 dead and still counting.
                      Why is it that the installing of democray is worth 3 trillion USD for country X and not worth bothering for country Y?

                      Comment


                      • #26
                        Re: Iraq to open oil up to foreign contractors

                        Originally posted by Olduvai View Post
                        Hi Lukester
                        History is always written by the victor. But doesn't make it nescarily true for the vanquished.
                        Suppose all you say is true and we should believe blue eyes, then why isn't democracy forcibly installed in other non-democratic countries (almost all of the Middle East) with a tendency to weapons of mass destruction (Iran, Libya). I can only notice that the prolonged military presence in Iraq is only serving bigtime capital and not the average US military man's family or the average Iraqi or the US taxpayer. Up till now estimates of 655.000 dead and still counting.
                        Why is it that the installing of democray is worth 3 trillion USD for country X and not worth bothering for country Y?
                        I think we should look at the US foreign policy in the same way EJ suggests we look at Central Banks. If you want to know what they are up to, just read what they say. The US has a long history of saying they will support democracy and protecting economic interests and a long history of actions that support those words. Why is it so hard for everyone to believe that?

                        History is not always written by the vanquished; witness Japanese school books that avoid things like the rape of Nanking.

                        Olduvai, if you can only notice that US military presence is only serving capital interests I would suggest you do a little more research on the subject. Your comment questioning why democracy is only worth installing in one country and not another shows a disturbing lack of strategic vision. Think a chess game; one only gets one move at a time.

                        I have a suggestion worthy of all iTulip participants: If one wants to be against US foreign policy that is certainly fair enough, I think we should avoid glib stereotypes and putdowns and I would only ask that the critique include a serious alternate vision that is both comprehensive and strategic.
                        Greg

                        Comment


                        • #27
                          Re: Iraq to open oil up to foreign contractors

                          Originally posted by phirang View Post
                          Then discard my thesis: leaves more money for me.
                          No, seriously. I think that is a highly provocative theory that signals a fundamental shift in US policy and deserves some insight into how it was formed. Any speeches given? Any laws passed? Any prior precedent?

                          And how does it leave more money for you? Since we are talking trillions of dollars, many of the investors here on the site may like to take advantage of your insight.
                          Greg

                          Comment


                          • #28
                            Re: Iraq to open oil up to foreign contractors

                            Originally posted by Lukester View Post
                            Yes of course - US taxpayers are indeed the big losers. No argument on that.
                            The real losers are the families of the US soldiers and Iraqi civlians that have died since this completely unnecessary war was started.

                            Originally posted by BiscayneSunrise View Post
                            Some other firms included but not mentioned in this article are BP, Maersk,Repsol, Statoil, BHP, Total, CNOOC, Sinopec, Lukoil and others for a total of 32.

                            http://www.telegraph.co.uk/money/mai.../cniraq115.xml


                            Iraq opens door to foreign contracts at major oil fields

                            Foreign oil companies are poised to enter Iraq later this month after Baghdad signalled it was prepared to sign five oil field services agreements covering its biggest fields.

                            Iraq can reach a geologic potential of 10m barrels a day with substantial foreign investment. But output will depend on security improvements

                            Five years since the US and Britain toppled Saddam Hussein's dictatorship, there have been few forays by oil's major players into Iraq, even though the country accounts for almost 10pc of world reserves.

                            A violent insurgency forced most oil companies to keep executives responsible for Iraq outside the country. Most are based in the Gulf.
                            This is a bigger stumbling block than commonly understood. It is impossible to secure the safety of foreign workers, not just executives, in Iraq (surge or no surge). For this reason, companies such as Chevron have outright corporate policy bans in place precluding their employees from entering the country. Without being able to put people on the ground progress will be painfully slow to develop anything in-country by "remote control" using Iraqi contractors. Putting advanced equipment in-country is even more problematic since the specialized maintenance and support needed for higher technologies is not easy to achieve. General Electric has sold and delivered tens of millions of dollars of sophisticated electrical generating gear into Iraq in the past 4 years and much of it is not operational. I am not optimistic we will see any dramatic expansion of Iraqi petroleum exports any time soon.

                            Originally posted by BiscayneSunrise View Post
                            Despite lack of foreign involvement in oil production, Iraq has returned to pre-war export levels of 2.5m barrels a day.

                            The two-year service contracts that have been negotiated would see British, American and Australian oil companies supply equipment and expertise that would boost output by hundreds of thousands of barrels at each field.

                            "I expect the oil companies will get their first deals in Iraq before the end of the month," said a British official. "The Iraqi government has said it's ready to do the deal. For the big oil companies it's not so much security that's the stumbling block now, it's the legal framework. This is the development that starts the ball rolling."

                            The five deals will cover Kirkuk, Missan, West Qurna, Zubair and Rumaila oil fields and have a face value of £1.5bn, though reimbursement will be satisfied in barrels..
                            A number of major oil companies, including BP, Shell and Chevron, have been spending large amounts of money assisting the Iraqis on these same fields. This assistance has come in the form of reservoir/technical studies, help with production and depletion optimization including recommendations for waterflood and other recovery improvements, and paying to have Iraqi engineers and geologists travel out of Iraq to the USA and Europe for advanced training. The Iraqis are good engineers and operators, and these efforts by the multinationals have been instrumental in keeping oil flowing in Iraq under these difficult circumstances (and don't require the multinational oil companies to expose any of their own employees to a dangerous security situation).

                            Originally posted by BiscayneSunrise View Post
                            "In this politically sensitive and difficult situation, service contracts are a pragmatic step forward for Iraq," said Steve Peacock, head of exploration and production for BP in the Middle East.

                            BP's contract, which is substantially negotiated, would involve the British firm providing project management, technical services and parts supplies to the North and South Rumaila fields.

                            The measures are described as a stopgap until Iraq's parliament ratifies a long-delayed oil law to allow foreign firms an exploration and production role in Iraq for the first time since the industry was nationalised in the 1970s.

                            While the security situation has prevented the large oil companies establishing a presence in Iraq, Mr Peacock said there had been extensive mapping of its resources. "We've studied the whole of the rest of the country, so we're waiting for what comes next after the service agreements.

                            "We have an opinion on which bits we'd be more interested in. Whether it gets linked into the contract or not - it's a natural question that's on the table," added Mr Peacock. "These contracts are valid for a couple of years; how does that link with what comes next?"

                            Royal Dutch Shell is set to emerge with interests in Kirkuk, Iraq's biggest field, discovered in 1927, and Missan, which it will serve in joint venture with the Australian miner BHP. The remaining contracts will go to Chevron, Exxon Mobil and Total.
                            These service contracts are merely a way for the individual companies to further secure their claims on the specific fields that they want. There is very little to nothing more that will be accomplished by way of additional production by formalizing the informal arrangements already in place. Further, the companies will be reluctant to invest any significant capital in these fields until the legal status confirming their ownership or production sharing rights are in place...and that could be quite a while to come in a fractious sectarian environment like Iraq.

                            Originally posted by BiscayneSunrise View Post
                            Oil experts estimate that Iraq can reach a geologic potential of 10m barrels a day with substantial foreign investment. But its achieved output is likely to rest on security improvements and nationalist resistance to foreign involvement.
                            ...both of which will prove to be enduring obstacles, I am certain.

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                            • #29
                              Re: Iraq to open oil up to foreign contractors

                              Originally posted by rj1 View Post
                              You want a realist's take?

                              What was the damn point of this war? It wasn't spreading democracy, to say it was is very unrealistic considering our nation's previous history in foreign policy and the administration's power brokers' views going into power in 2001, so what else was there? No one for six years has been able to answer this question!
                              It was NEEDED, that's why. Some folks thought that this war needed to be fought insead of just sitting there festering. Quite simply, yes alot of the other ideas here were I'm sure part of the calculus, but in the end, some folks thought that they needed to do this.

                              (BTW, they also thought that they needed to go into syria and iran too, but changed plans when things didin't go so well. Iraq was to be the start of a new american century. It was supposed to be fast fast fast, one country after another that we would turn around and be borught into the fold. Unfortunately naivete doesn't aid decision making and risk management. A simplification of the complexities of geopolitical reality married with a delusional and idealisitic world view were the compounding factors that allowed this all to take place.)

                              Take a ill-concieved plan and sell it to someone idealistic enough to believe it and not intellectually curious enough to think it through and you are going to have problems.

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                              • #30
                                Re: Iraq to open oil up to foreign contractors

                                Originally posted by jtabeb View Post
                                (BTW, they also thought that they needed to go into syria and iran too, but changed plans when things didin't go so well. Iraq was to be the start of a new american century. It was supposed to be fast fast fast, one country after another that we would turn around and be borught into the fold.
                                One thing I learned during my military service in Lebanon is that you can't bring them into the fold. Think of it as living in two different realities ; christian vs muslim, western vs 16th century. Add the fact that these countries have never ever experienced a democracy (the whole concept is alien to them because they don't separate state and religion) and still have a thorough dislike towards christians stemming from the crusades (long memory indeed). You can't win them over and stay in the country at the same time. Your only hope can be installing a regime that will prove to be tough enough to withstand the ever continuing internal strife in these countries. Think of it as warring with your neighbours for the last 2000 years and suddenly an American (looks like someone from Mars to them) comes along and starts telling you to stop warring, to be friendly, and start talking.
                                Even if the US stayed there for another 25 years they couldn't get this task done. If the US wanted to knock out Syria and Iran they should have done so immediately after Sadam was captured. Staying put in Irak doesn't serve any purpose except drawing every young idiot from all neighbouring countries to take a potshot at you.
                                If the US wants this to work they should separate the four ethnic regions and give them autonomy. Install a central government where only the four leaders are represented together with the US. Give each ethnic region it's own army because otherwise it won't work because Shii won't fire at Shii, Sounie not at Sounie etc. The army now being created will only fight itself. Then protect the central government militarily and get on with whatever your intention was.
                                regards

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