Dodgy Predictions By MSM Economists

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David Smith is an economics writer for the London Times. A few of his recent classics included:

http://business.timesonline.co.uk/to...cle1625932.ece

There are two things one should bear in mind about the housing market. One is that mere mention of a slowdown brings the “crash” obsessives out in force, their latest ammunition being the problems in the American sub-prime market. That has as much relevance to Britain’s housing market as the baseball world series has to whether Chelsea or Manchester United will win the Premiership.

http://www.economicsuk.com/blog/000326.html

Last time it took Hurricane Katrina’s devastation of New Orleans and surrounding areas, to give us a record crude price of $70.85 a barrel. This time Iran’s nuclear programme, and the fear of American military strikes, have pushed US crude above $75 and North Sea Brent crude above $74. This might be a useful time, then, to revisit my prediction that oil prices are unsustainable at these levels and will fall, in due course, to $40 a barrel.

If you put money on Mr Smith's predictions, you'd end up a pauper. How come some economists remain employed when they make hopelessly bad predictions?

[The Outback Oracle]

Re: Dodgy Predictions By MSM Economists

Yes well Kudlow was over the top (as usual) that Gold was headed straight for $400. I think the price at the time was about $570 after a reversal. My memory tells me that Gold started going up immediately after his prediction.
Now he is still held up on CNBC as a great Economist! The worry is he has joined the recession camp...but I think it is short and shallow. So there is no need to abandon any recession feelings you have just yet.

[The Outback Oracle]

Re: Dodgy Predictions By MSM Economists

Actually MSM hold these people up as experts and are advising people on long-term investment decisions. Why aren't they ever held accountable.

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Re: Dodgy Predictions By MSM Economists

Actually MSM hold these people up as experts and are advising people on long-term investment decisions. Why aren't they ever held accountable.

Prior to the widespread adoption of the internet, what could people who remembered bad predictions do - write to the newspaper? Unlikely to be published!

Hopefully, now anyone can comment on economists' mistakes, accountability could be increased - but maybe only if enough people read alternative media.

[Jeff]

Re: Dodgy Predictions By MSM Economists

Everybody can't be above average. Otherwise, how would you know if you were winning? Some people never learn that the "experts" are just people with opinions. The best financial moves of my life, the 4 or 5 moves I made that made me millions each time were dismissed by the experts, not to mention family and friends, as foolish, if not outright stupid.

Buy internet stock (privately held) in 1993? Insane!
Sell WorldCom and Cisco stock in 1999? Fool!
Buy gold and residential real estate in 1999? Nuts!
Sell residential real estate by 2005? Idiot! Real estate only goes up!
Get the hell out of the US dollar by 2005? What are you, crazy?

You get the idea.

[Serge_Tomiko]

Re: Dodgy Predictions By MSM Economists

Prior to the widespread adoption of the internet, what could people who remembered bad predictions do - write to the newspaper? Unlikely to be published!

Hopefully, now anyone can comment on economists' mistakes, accountability could be increased - but maybe only if enough people read alternative media.

Perhaps someone needs to make a website that specifically profiles these economists and details their predictions.

I wonder how popular it would be...

[ax]

Re: Dodgy Predictions By MSM Economists

Perhaps someone needs to make a website that specifically profiles these economists and details their predictions.

I wonder how popular it would be...

Beginning with our Fed chiefs, we've seen the true disconnect between academician/econ theory versus true evolving/fluid economic realities...

Lest we forget, we are following our top economist, EJ; we just think he's right.

[Nervous Drake]

Re: Dodgy Predictions By MSM Economists

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[The Outback Oracle]

Re: Dodgy Predictions By MSM Economists

In (some) defence of those who do make appearances on MSM, I guess it is OK if the population understands they are giving the best opinion they can, but it is just that. There are quite a few very good commentators who appear. I guess my main objection is a personal one to self righteous arrogance as typified by Kudlow.
My son appears pretty regularly on CNBC and it is reasonably difficult for him. He is invited to give his oppinions and he does but he would be the first to say that he is not always right (he doesn't ALWAYS listen to me ). If you don't have an opinion to give, and a reasonably definite one at that, you just look like a goose!
I suppose for me it is just entertainment to sit on my couch and hurl self righteous abuse at all the idiots . On the other hand as I say there are good ideas put forward from time to time.

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David Smith now editing his mistakes

Spot the difference:

Original Article: http://business.timesonline.co.uk/to...enComment=true

There are two things one should bear in mind about the housing market. One is that mere mention of a slowdown brings the “crash” obsessives out in force, their latest ammunition being the problems in the American sub-prime market. That has as much relevance to Britain’s housing market as the baseball world series has to whether Chelsea or Manchester United will win the Premiership.

The second is that everybody has underestimated the strength of house prices in recent years...

Revised version on David Smith's blog: http://www.economicsuk.com/blog/000484.html

There are two things one should bear in mind about the housing market. One is that mere mention of a slowdown brings the “crash” obsessives out in force.

The second is that everybody has underestimated the strength of house prices in recent years...

Make an incredibly bad prediction? Just rewrite it & edit it out!