Viral War??

[DrYB/C]

"The first panacea for a mismanaged nation is inflation of the currency; the second is war."
-- Ernest Hemingway, Esquire magazine, September 1935



1. A Mystery in the Middle East
http://www.stratfor.com/weekly/rumor...routine_events

[Guest]

Re: Viral War??

DrYB/C -

I read this last night, and considered posting it - very interesting. STRATFOR's hunches have a way of playing out in the real events. But iTuliper's don't really "do current events" - unless they are tied strictly to the ramifications of the imploding real estate markets or the imploding dollar, or (very much applauded) any and all ramifications of FIRE economy analysis.

Current events (especially when overtones of "geo-politics" creep in) are a fleeting, almost guilty pleasure to read around here, like an illicit affair one is discreetly carrying on - the concern at the editorial level is that this place may degenerate into one of those raucus, vulgar free-for-alls where all those dreadful right wing hoarse patriot types and dreadful left wing internationalist types get all hot and bothered.

That would lower the cool, detached, clinical tenor that is sought after here. I think the concern is that if you let your guard down, all those vulgar types will sort of wander into the discussion and degrade the quality of the discourse.

Too bad. I very much enjoy reading contributor comments here about the Stratfor geopolitical analyses, as these often predict stunning developments which eventual catch up with the financial markets anyway on the flip side (financial markets which iTulip seems to be exclusively glued to most often).

You have my sympathies. This is an interesting topic - but for the mainstream here, it's maybe too much of a departure from the 'ORTHODOXY". People feel inhibited and almost guilty, sharing any ideas they may have which stray outside of what is referred to in mangled terms as "ECON/FINANCE" (does sound a bit grey, doesn't it?). I can only guess the vague idea is that by discussing other topics without sufficient restraint somehow we would be betraying the purity of this community's mandate. :rolleyes:

What is the "ORTHODOXY"? It involves progressing at an inching pace, avid investor snouts glued to the double yellow dotted line on the asphalt, sniffing out the next actionable hints as to WHERE THE MARKETS ARE HEADED, and WHAT WILL NEXT OCCUR IN THE DEBT AND CREDIT MARKETS. Sometimes I feel a shameful need to yawn at this highly focused menu, but of course iTulip has so much of value to offer in the financial arena, one has to accept the rigorous diet in order to stay always "on point".

I prefer "eclectic and irreverent general topic list" myself, and could imagine this community indulging a broader array of investigations, without the sense of mild guilt that one is straying off course by posting geopolitical views. Such foolish puppies invariably wind up in the "RANT AND RAVE" corral for noisy punditry instead. :rolleyes: The grey fact of the matter is, a lot of other readers seem to prefer "ALL CREDIT AND FINANCE MARKETS, ALL THE TIME, 24/7" and they tend to feel un-moored and get a little anxious when this steady diet is disturbed.

Thank you for your post!

[GeraldRiggs]

Re: Viral War??

Lukester:

You have a lot more time on your hands than I do....:>

[krakknisse]

Re: Viral War??

Hmm...
Arabs think something is coming.

Well at least the USS Lincoln (or here) and its strike group is moving, according to this local US newspaper. More interesting photos and developments here. But no news on the official site, but at another official site, it is listed as being in the "South China Sea".

[Sapiens]

Re: Viral War??

Hmm...
Arabs think something is coming.

Something is indeed coming, the paper profits by the Arabs who are holding all that paper is about to get redeemed with "protection", men, guns and bullets. The Dollar is backed by oil and all those surplus dollars are are about to get mopped up in this next war.

[Andreuccio]

Re: Viral War??

"The first panacea for a mismanaged nation is inflation of the currency; the second is war."
-- Ernest Hemingway, Esquire magazine, September 1935



1. A Mystery in the Middle East
http://www.stratfor.com/weekly/rumor...routine_events

Reading this article prompted me to look for a website I haven't been to in a few years. The description from their website:

DEBKAfile is a self-supporting Internet publication devoted to independent, investigative reporting and forward analysis in the fields of

international terrorism

, intelligence, international conflict, Islam, military affairs, security and politics.

(www.Debka.com)

I don't know where they get their info, but I've found them to be prescient regarding events in the Middle East. Here's a link to their take on these events (which they say in this case they got from "British Media"):

http://www.debka.com/headline.php?hid=5168

It basically states that the Arabs believe the US and Israel are planning a large scale joint strike against Iran, Syria, and Hezbollah.

[Verrocchio]

Re: Viral War??

Right then, lads.

Let us be prepared should rumor turn into fact. How to do? By proceeding as Lukester has stereotyped iTulipers, by "sniffing out the next actionable hints as to WHERE THE MARKETS ARE HEADED." If we were to assume that Debka has it right, then what are the implications for the fundamentals that underly the iTulip thesis?

[The Outback Oracle]

Re: Viral War??

G'day Lukester

I think your assessment of our motivations in not wanting such political prognostications in this site is incorrect. (Actually, letting the dice fall where they land, in some mixed metaphor, you are dead set WRONG ). You're correct that we want the site kept as a reasonably, clinical analysis of economic and financial matters and to consider political events only in that light.
There are plenty of other boards that discuss such events. My great fear in seeing the rise of such discussion here is that itulip might go the way of DR which has deteriorated from a mixed discussion of economic and political matters in to a feeble minded mix of every political and personal, stupid extremist on earth.
Don't let us go that way! So keep it simple and stick to our own particular knitting here!
Cheers

[Guest]

Re: Viral War??

OK - I suppose Outback has set me straight. Goes without saying I am delighted to see iTulipers venturing (ever so hesitantly) into measured contemplation of international events. It's like opening the windows in a stuffy ticker-tape-filled room and letting some AIR in!!!

And I still say iTulipers sometimes get to sounding like a collective "giant ingrown toenail" with their "ALL FINANCE, ALL THE TIME, EVERYWHERE" endless drone. I mean there must be something soul destroying in waking up every freaking day and your first waking thought is "AGGHH! GOT TO RE-JIGGER MY PORTFOLIO ALLOCATIONS ASAP!!, or the even more philosophically profound primal fear - "AGGHH! PROFIT MARGINS ARE LOOKING AWFULLY TOPPY, AND THE MARKET BREADTH IS LOOKING TERRIBLE!!". :eek: :rolleyes:

This type of "modern hero" makes me want to climb the nearest tree sometimes. It turns a thinking feeling modern human, capable of a little "HUMANISM" ( what the heck is that, "humanism"? ) inside out, into a market obsessed, ass-puckered dried prune. Sorry, I'm taking the Aussie Oracles advice and letting the "chips fall where they may" here. Anyway you guys are thick skinned enough to hear it. No need to summarily club me to death here guys, I'm exercising my free speech rights.

Still I'd love to take a giant photo of the whole tribe in 2008 - (put Sapiens in the middle, holding the Giant Trophy Swordfish caught on the fishing expedition you all just returned from). We could put it up in the dining room of the Rotary Club you guys all inhabit - with a brass plaque reading "2008 - iTulip Privateers Return From Gala Annual Fishing Extravaganza", or some such. Yer lookin' good fellas. Real Early to THE ECON IMPLOSION PARTY, and "loaded for Bear".

One other observation: Outback wrote: << My great fear in seeing the rise of such discussion here is that itulip might go the way of DR [ Daily Reckoning ] which has deteriorated from a mixed discussion of economic and political matters in to a feeble minded mix of every political and personal, stupid extremist on earth. >>

Point well taken! I think the chances of iTulip sliding to that level are slim to none. Raily Reckoning is steered by AGORA. Well, they've got a few bright stock pickers and analysts there - no question about it. Kevin Kerr and Steve Sjuggerud, and Adam Lass (options kamikaze with a superb track record) are the real deal - but compared to iTulip's depth and breadth of analysis, they are downright superficial. Their forums need not have degenerated - I think the above analysts are high quality, but evidently they have no "unifying force" in their editor in chief Bill Bonner, who is not much more than a witty gadfly glob-trotting and regaling readers with his exploits. It is essentially meaningless to compare that kind of skipper to the guy running this place.

I apologise for my slightly acerbic description of iTulip "profit hunters", but it stands. We could add a precious layer of depth to this community by regularly leavening the economic analysis with commentary which delves deeply into the worlds societal trends as well. It's absolutely not heresy. My apologies to all you stalwarts for the criticism, which is offered constructively.

[The Outback Oracle]

Re: Viral War??

G'day Lukester
I thought a little more about my objections over the weekend. I guess one cannot be an information Nazi!
I guess, given that we have such forums as 'rant and rave' or 'rumours' or whatever, people can write what they want and one ignore them if one chooses.

BTW I thought your thoughts on all these topics well argued. I did read them!!!!
Cheers

[Guest]

Re: Viral War??

No worries Aussie Oracle. I fully expect any Australian posting here to nurse some vestige of anarchy within their heart of hearts. Something to do with your founding fathers, who I understand were reputed to be somewhat ... 'unruly'? And lest you regard this as implying any blemish upon your nation, please do not misunderstand, it is a slightly lawless quality I much enjoy and admire. Here's to hoping that spark does not die out in the world, as we head inexorably in this century towards a drab 'one world government'.

BTW - you have cast some haughty and disrespectful aspersions on the quality of AMERICAN BEER, but I just found out the other day, that the famous Aussie exported beer here in the States known as FOSTERS, is in fact a brewery that was founded by two AMERICAN emigrants to Australia! True story. :eek: :eek: :eek:

Like they say, down on the salty New Jersey shore - Go figure.