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Re: The CIA shows WHY the British should worry!
What's the USA's?
Mega
What's the USA's?
Mega
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Re: The CIA shows WHY the British should worry!
275% per keen's chart.Originally posted by Mega View PostComment
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Re: The CIA shows WHY the British should worry!
Thanks
So its BAD but not THAT bad.
MegaComment
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Re: The CIA shows WHY the British should worry!
Per capita external debt calculated from the posted data
UK - $171,943
France $ 68,625
Germany -$ 54,478
US - $ 40,179
China - $ 275
India - $ 146Comment
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But GDP is not a good denominator for Britain
Britain's external banking system is much larger in proportion to its GDP than for other countries.
Say you have two villages which are otherwise identical in their economies, except for the fact that one has a bank and the other doesn't. That bank lends to other villages.
They have the same GDP but one has a large external debt. Not a problem for that village with the bank.Comment
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Re: The CIA shows WHY the British should worry!
Does anyone know where to find data on Japan, Germany, UK, etc... showing there debt breakdown (financial, private, commercial, government), entitlements, % of FIRE economy, etc...? I would be happy to do the legwork and build a comparison of relevant statistics, but don't know where to turn to collec the data.
Personally, I have been clamoring for that kind of analysis of other competitor/partner nations for a long time. If we could have a ITULIP style analysis of major players, it might shed some light on where things are headed. Alternatively, could someone explain to me why this would be a waste of time, then I'll stop worrying about it.
I would very much appreciate some help on this topic.Comment
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Re: The CIA shows WHY the British should worry!
This is a great idea for a future iTulip Select analysis.Originally posted by gobears View Post
Let's start by identifying the top 10 that represent 70% of global GDP:
#1 United States: 12,416,510,000,000
#2 Japan: 4,533,965,000,000
#3 Germany: 2,794,926,000,000
#4 China: 2,234,297,000,000
#5 United Kingdom: 2,198,789,000,000
#6 France: 2,126,630,000,000
#7 Italy: 1,762,519,000,000
#8 Spain: 1,124,640,000,000
#9 Canada: 1,113,810,000,000
#10 India: 805,713,800,000
What do we want to know?
1) Debt by industry sector (e.g., financial, household, etc.)
2) Output by industry sector
3) Liabilities
4) Net external debtor/creditor status
5) ... others?
While digging found this.
GDP per capita in 1820
Rank Countries Amount (top to bottom) #1 Netherlands: $1,561.00
#2 Australia: $1,528.00
#3 Austria: $1,295.00
#4 Belgium: $1,291.00
#5 United States: $1,287.00
#6 Denmark: $1,225.00
#7 France: $1,218.00
#8 Sweden: $1,198.00
#9 Germany: $1,112.00
#10 Italy: $1,092.00
GDP per capita in 1900
#1 New Zealand: $4,320.00
#2 Australia: $4,299.00
#3 United States: $4,096.00
#4 Belgium: $3,652.00
#5 Netherlands: $3,533.00
#6 Switzerland: $3,531.00
#7 Germany: $3,134.00
#8 Denmark: $2,902.00
#9 Austria: $2,901.00
#10 France: $2,849.00
GDP per capita in 1950
#1 United States: $9,573.00
#2 Switzerland: $8,939.00
#3 New Zealand: $8,495.00
#4 Venezuela: $7,424.00
#5 Australia: $7,218.00
#6 Canada: $7,047.00
#7 Sweden: $6,738.00
#8 Denmark: $6,683.00
#9 Netherlands: $5,850.00
#10 Belgium: $5,346.00
GDP per capita in 1973
#1 Switzerland: $17,953.00
#2 United States: $16,607.00
#3 Canada: $13,644.00
#4 Sweden: $13,494.00
#5 Denmark: $13,416.00
#6 Germany: $13,152.00
#7 France: $12,940.00
#8 Netherlands: $12,763.00
#9 New Zealand: $12,575.00
#10 Australia: $12,485.00
GDP per capita in 2005
#1 Luxembourg: $79,851.00 per capita 2005 ...
#2 Norway: $63,918.15 per capita 2005 ...
#3 Iceland: $53,290.28 per capita 2005 ...
#4 Qatar: $52,239.72 per capita 2005 ...
#5 Switzerland: $49,351.14 per capita 2005 ...
#6 Ireland: $48,524.18 per capita 2005 ...
#7 Denmark: $47,768.73 per capita 2005 ...
#8 United States: $41,889.59 per capita 2005 ...
#9 Sweden: $39,636.64 per capita 2005 ...
#10 Netherlands: $38,248.04 per capita 2005 ...
China is 129th.Ed.Comment
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Re: The CIA shows WHY the British should worry!
Glad to hear this might be useful. I agree with the list of data that needs to be collectd. I have started digging around. First of all, external debt is defined as:
External debt (or foreign debt) is that part of the total debt in a country that is owed to creditors outside the country. The debtors can be the government, corporations or private households. The debt includes money owed to private commercial banks, other governments, or international financial institutions such as the IMF and World Bank.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/External_debt
Next, I found an IMF sight that has more in depth data for each country than the CIA page (and seems roughly consistent):
http://dsbb.imf.org/Applications/web/sddsnsdppage/
For instance, Japan presently has a federal debt of roughly $8.38 trillion and a deficit of roughly $167 billion (assuming 1$=100yen exchange rate).
An interesting observation from the IMF data: Total external debt of the USA is roughly equal to the foreign assets we hold. Does that mean there is not such a huge imbalance at this moment, but that the gap is growing rapidly and we are about to see an explosion of external debt vs. the foreign assets we hold?
Finally, here is an interesting paper analyzing Japan's debt vs. US debt vs. other G7 countries:
http://www.palgrave.com/pdfs/0230007872.pdf
Here, American debt levels do not look that bad, except when you factor in Social Security .... Also, the analysis is only on government obligations. Now, need to dig up the #'s for entitlement projections and private sector debt.Comment
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Re: Debt/GDP of G7 countries
Is that Japan number right?
I've been reading for at least 10 years that as a fraction of the economy, Japan's deficits are double the size of US deficits.
The number for Canada surprises me too. We've cut a lot of spending at all levels of government, but we came out of the 70s in much worse shape than most other countries, after disastrous attempts to nationalize a couple of industries and huge deficits.
Originally posted by qwerty View PostComment
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Re: The CIA shows WHY the British should worry!
The Japan debt number is correct, but keep in mind, this number is referring to "external debt". You would expect it to be small (who would outsiders want to hold Japanese debt with their extraordinarily low interest rates)?
That being said, you are correct, that Japan has run enormous deficits and they have a mountain of internal debt. Check out the link I provided to the IMF data for Japan.....Comment
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Re: The CIA shows WHY the British should worry!
Thanks gobear! I guess that was what I was battling with. What the hell does it matter if Japan owes X to the rest of the world but the world owes it 100 x X. That's why i think these figures are not illustrating the real problem for countries like Aus! We owe heaps, are owed little and have sold off nearly every worthwhile asset in the country. The US position as outlined (by someone on this thread) where you owe about as much as you hold externally is not near so grave. The real problem for the world is (as pointed out) just one year of US deficits brings the US to the same net external; debt level as it has taken Aus 38 years to reach!!! Mind you we have still sold off morre of the country so your problems are miniscule compared to ours (imo)
I'd like to see a chart of NET external debt as a % of GDP. Even more I would be really interested in charts of % of industry owned by external (foreign) intersts. One used be able to get them for the various sectors in Aus but some mongrel devious b.....d seems to have decreed that the public (well obnoxious toads like me anyway) should not know. At least I can't find them.
CheersComment
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