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  • Evidence of economy crashing...

    posted on another board...

    I have worked retail for several years. I am in mid-level store management right now. I don't want to say exactly what company I work for, but it is in the top 3 largest. I work at a store in a major city.

    There have been some crazy things going on recently. The changes that we are being asked me make per corporates direction makes me think that the people at the top think something VERY big is going to be happening to the economy soon. I don't think the media or the government is giving us the full details of what is actually going on, but I think the CEO's and others at the top are fully aware and are making plans.

    For one thing I check sales every day. At the store level we usually compare what sales are today compared to sales for the same day, week, month, and year last year. Sales at our store, our district, and company wide have taken a HUGE drop compared to the same time last year. When I looked at them today my store and every store in our district was down over 30% for the same time last year. The company as a whole is also in the negative for the same time last year. (but not as much, but it gets lower every day)

    Honestly at my store I could say that we have done everything in our power at the store level to increase sales, but it just isn't happening. Departments like electronics are literally almost completely empty the entire day. The only departments that actually are getting sales are consumables, health, and chemicals. Just walking the store these are the only departments I ever even see people in ever since christmas ended.

    Sometimes I will cover the service desk so a team member can take a lunch/break. When I do I sometimes process peoples credit card payments which lets me see how much they owe and how much they are paying. There are tons of people with THOUSANDS of dollars on their card only making minimum payments. These balances are usually at interest rates over 20%. Then there are people bringing in checks for the full amount, but they are BALANCE TRANSFER checks.... they are just moving it to other cards.

    But that isn't what really worries me. What worries me is the changes corporate is making. I have worked here for years, and in the last 4 months I have seen more changes than all that time combined.

    We are getting emails all the time from corporate telling us to reduce costs anyway we can. We recently got one telling us to start pulling fluorescent light bulbs, that we don't need all of them in order to provide illumination.... and those bulbs barely use any power.

    Corporate has instructed all stores to lower the AC. It has been lowered enough to the point we get complaints from team members and customers.

    Corporate has sent us emails telling us to make sure we fill bags to the absolute possibly maximum. They are not even sending us large bags anymore to some stores.

    Corporate has recently eliminated (what I would estimate based on how many positions we lost vs the thousands of stores we have) several thousnad management positions at *all levels* of management at stores. This NEVER APPEARED ON THE NEWS! I suspect because it was not a traditional lay off. What corporate basically told us was "Your position is eliminated, but you are not laid off. Once you quit/get your self fired/whatever your position just won't be filled again" So we are basically slowly losing jobs as people company wide quit, get fired, etc.... but the jobs are never filled again. So basically we are cutting jobs, but the way it is being done is preventing it from getting reported in the media or tracked by the government as job losses.

    No non-management positions have been eliminated, instead hours have been cut for them.

    Raises this year have also been lowered in amount compared to in previous years. They have been lowered enough that corporate is keeping it a secret until we have to tell team members.

    The company is also buying less. Our distribution centers are sending us, for example, 3 of a certain item when normally we would get 50.... and they don't send us more until those sell. I have not been able to keep departments full of product despite contacting corporate and asking for more because we are being sent such small amounts of product.

    We have had trucks cancelled all the time now simply because we sold so little that they can't justify sending so few items to a store.

    People are simply NOT buying things. They are not buying anything that isn't a consumable basically. I asked our pricing team to do a store mark down and lower the price on almost all of our TVs by 30-50%. We still have not sold a single one in over a week after! Our TVs were not priced very high to begin with.

    Our pricing team is also being sent price increase changes from corporate in huge numbers. I am talking entire aisles of product for them to raise the prices on. The other day we got a STACK of pages of product to increase prices on. We thought it HAD to be a mistake because that has simply never happened before. We have emailed corporate asking if it was a mistake... we have not heard back yet, but I suspect it was not.

    Many stores are now changing to non-overnight stores. They will be closed overnight and ALL power except in office areas will be cut overnight to save on costs.

    There have even been changes to job descriptions recently. Corporate is basically giving job dutys to people at lower levels which used to be reserved for people at higher levels. Even some management tasks are being given to people in non-management positions. Basically they are paying people less to do what people used to get paid more to do.

    Things are NOT looking pretty right now. I can tell you from a consumer spending point of view something is definantely going on.... All these changes tell me the people at the top are trying to brace for something big that is going to be happening to the economy.
    what are itulipers seeing? anyone here in retail, restaurants biz, etc?

  • #2
    Re: Evidence of economy crashing...

    I work for a dry-cleaning company that has several stores in the North East. The company sales stopped growing last year, around the third quarter, for the first quarter of 08 sales are down about 45%. We have laid-off about 16% of our staff. Supplies and consumable expenses are up 30% from last year. Our energy bill is up by 33%. This past March has been the worst sales month in the 16 year history of this company. I think if sales do not pick up in the second quarter of 08, the company will have to file for bankruptcy.

    Comment


    • #3
      Re: Evidence of economy crashing...

      this draws my suspicion that this is not written by the alleged writer, or IOW the writer's position is not what they claim (IMHO)

      " CEO's and others at the top are fully aware and are making plan".

      Even if there ever was a CEO that had his finger on the pulse, and took appropriate action, the close-to-the-floor management does not think this way about extra work they're told to do.

      Originally posted by metalman View Post
      posted on another board...

      what are itulipers seeing? anyone here in retail, restaurants biz, etc?
      Toronto retail is not suffering badly yet ... the high dollar may be reducing manufacturing employment, that's not yet feeding down to the restaurants & shops.

      but housing has NOT started down here yet.

      There was a new land transfer tax introduced couple of months ago making it more expensive for example, for Boomers to transfer the ownership of housing to their kids tax - free. This caused a record number of housing sales and probably a couple of month blip up.

      We'll see if reality and the credit markets re-assert themselves.

      Comment


      • #4
        Re: Evidence of economy crashing...

        Originally posted by metalman View Post
        posted on another board...what are itulipers seeing?
        These are just walking around notes...I'm up in somewhat rural Mendocino county, CA - the parking lots have been full at all of the area thrift stores recently, a couple of local stores have closed and the few big corporate stores have cut staffing, particularly the part-timers. One really sees this in the supermarkets (the Safeway with 25 people in 5 lines with one bagger). Retail gasoline prices went about about 12 cents over the last week to $3.69 and up until now said Safeway has been selling gas about a dime cheaper than everyone else, but not anymore.

        also - pulled from that thread:

        2008...The Year Of The Dying Airlines

        Since January 1, 2008, Already Gone:
        Big Sky Airlines
        Boston-Maine
        Aloha
        ATA
        Skybus

        Announced Intention of Going:
        Skyway (April 5)
        Champion Air (May 31)
        Air Midwest (As soon as Great Lakes' gets enough airplanes to releive of EAS responsibilities)
        Last edited by Slimprofits; April 06, 2008, 03:03 PM.

        Comment


        • #5
          Re: Evidence of economy crashing...

          Originally posted by Kukulcan View Post
          I work for a dry-cleaning company that has several stores in the North East. The company sales stopped growing last year, around the third quarter, for the first quarter of 08 sales are down about 45%. We have laid-off about 16% of our staff. Supplies and consumable expenses are up 30% from last year. Our energy bill is up by 33%. This past March has been the worst sales month in the 16 year history of this company. I think if sales do not pick up in the second quarter of 08, the company will have to file for bankruptcy.
          Ouch! So sorry to hear that.

          I hope everyone posts photos of what they are see. I just posted some duck pics I took. You have to log in a second time (FRED, fixable?) but it's easy to use.

          http://www.itulip.com/forums/photoplog/index.php?c=3

          Recession photos area is here.

          http://www.itulip.com/forums/photoplog/index.php?c=1

          Comment


          • #6
            Re: Evidence of economy crashing...

            Originally posted by Spartacus View Post
            this draws my suspicion that this is not written by the alleged writer, or IOW the writer's position is not what they claim (IMHO)

            " CEO's and others at the top are fully aware and are making plan".

            Even if there ever was a CEO that had his finger on the pulse, and took appropriate action, the close-to-the-floor management does not think this way about extra work they're told to do.
            That crossed my mind. Never worked in retail. In high tech where I sent years this is how everyone thinking in 2001. All of a sudden it was this program and that program, mostly stupid rearranging of deck chairs type stuff! The secretive meetings, the oddball emails from higher level managers you never heard from before. Finally the foregone layoff notice.

            Anyone who works for a company without a big cash cushion: if you are not already looking for a job at a better off company, get with the program!

            Comment


            • #7
              Re: Evidence of economy crashing...

              Britt Beemer, chairman of America's Research Group as quoted on Bloomberg.com:

              Seventy percent of consumers who have received their 2007 income tax refund are using it to pay off credit cards and bills, the first time in 20 years that figure has topped 50 percent, according to Beemer. People who may have never seen the inside of a Wal-Mart are now buying groceries there, he said.

              ``In my 29 years of research, consumers are doing exactly what they said they are going to do: they're not spending,'' Beemer said in a telephone interview. He said his firm interviews 8,000 to 15,000 consumers a week.

              Comment


              • #8
                Re: Evidence of economy crashing...

                In addition to the Itulip PhotoPlog:

                Flickr: Economic Stimulus Act of 2008

                an example:

                Comment


                • #9
                  Re: Evidence of economy crashing...

                  Metalman, been to a mall (ghost town) lately? If you want anecdotal evidence.....recently cashed in a Macy's gift certificate for a pair of shoes at a large S. Florida mall around noon on a Monday. Two salesmen were lamenting the day's take, a t-shirt sale of $9. My wife used to work for Centex. They recently re-opened a planned community that was supposed to hit the market in 2006 after lowering prices literally $150-200K. Of the original 70 buyers with price-lock contracts, 2 came to claim their homes....

                  Comment


                  • #10
                    Re: Evidence of economy crashing...

                    Originally posted by ax View Post
                    Metalman, been to a mall (ghost town) lately? If you want anecdotal evidence.....recently cashed in a Macy's gift certificate for a pair of shoes at a large S. Florida mall around noon on a Monday. Two salesmen were lamenting the day's take, a t-shirt sale of $9. My wife used to work for Centex. They recently re-opened a planned community that was supposed to hit the market in 2006 after lowering prices literally $150-200K. Of the original 70 buyers with price-lock contracts, 2 came to claim their homes....
                    splat! thanks. florida is ground zero of the housing bust. how are other areas doing?

                    Comment


                    • #11
                      Re: Evidence of economy crashing...

                      Below is a link reporting some of the latest unemployement statictics in Canada.Overall, job creation since the start of the year is positive altough unequally distributed across the country. Real estate is cooling in Quebec province but the average house prices in the greater Montreal area is still going up.

                      Manufacturing sectors are affected by the strong CAD currency in Ontario and Quebec.

                      http://www.canada.com/montrealgazett...c-3ef2bc25a4c8

                      Comment


                      • #12
                        Re: Evidence of economy crashing...

                        Originally posted by metalman View Post
                        splat! thanks. florida is ground zero of the housing bust. how are other areas doing?
                        In general, not well. Fortunately, I'm a PA (physician assistant) and the demand for medical professionals has increased dramatically with the population surge. However, home prices are still well beyond median incomes. My community is filled with lock boxes and multi-family renters who are living illegally. The foreclosure process takes time and so will the drop in home prices. Have you read this? Things are worse than they seem....

                        http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?p...0gc&refer=home

                        Comment


                        • #13
                          Re: Evidence of economy crashing...

                          I work in one of the U.S. largest biotech companies in the San Francisco Bay Area. They are doing a voluntary severance package - laying off personnel for the first time in the company's history. At least it's voluntary, but nevertheless, it is a lay off.

                          I did notice Costco sure doesn't seem to be hurting. It was as crowded as always last weekend.

                          Many of my friends from other medical device companies have been laid off. For the first time in my life, I know quite a lot of people currently out of a job.

                          What is strange is that the house prices where I live - Cupertino, CA - have not come down much or at all.

                          I will not be spending my tax rebate - it will go directly into savings. Luckily, I have no debts - still renting.

                          Comment


                          • #14
                            Re: Evidence of economy crashing...

                            Is this what you are talking about? --- MANAGEMENT'S DISCUSSION AND ANALYSIS OF FINANCIAL CONDITION AND RESULTS OF OPERATIONS

                            In February 2008, we established a voluntary severance program for select groups of manufacturing employees. The program provides these employees the opportunity to voluntarily resign from the Company in exchange for a severance package. Employees will have until March 2008 to elect whether to participate in the voluntary severance program. We currently expect to record compensation charges in COS associated with this program of approximately $20 million in the first quarter of 2008, although the charges could be higher or lower depending on the number of employees who elect to participate.

                            Comment


                            • #15
                              Re: Evidence of economy crashing...

                              Originally posted by johnnybill45 View Post
                              I work in one of the U.S. largest biotech companies in the San Francisco Bay Area. They are doing a voluntary severance package - laying off personnel for the first time in the company's history. At least it's voluntary, but nevertheless, it is a lay off.

                              I did notice Costco sure doesn't seem to be hurting. It was as crowded as always last weekend.

                              Many of my friends from other medical device companies have been laid off. For the first time in my life, I know quite a lot of people currently out of a job.

                              What is strange is that the house prices where I live - Cupertino, CA - have not come down much or at all.

                              I will not be spending my tax rebate - it will go directly into savings. Luckily, I have no debts - still renting.
                              Are the layoffs a result of manufacturing outsourcing? I don't see why any biotech co would reduce its core R&D and engineering staff at the moment...

                              Comment

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